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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@altaski8, And it's sciency talk the likes of which I've not come across before!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@altaski8, what has naming convention got to do with a "Weather Outlook Thread"?

I've got a science background too but an important part of that is to adjust your output according to the intended recipient(s). You're not impressing anyone here.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
And I used to teach global meteorology but wouldn't presume to lecture on here. Time and a place.
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Whilst we are on the subject, why does the German speaking world use a different naming convention?. It was storm Ciara followed by storm Dennis in the UK (and other places too I believe) but here it was Sturm SABINE to be followed by Sturm TOMRIS (not sure why there are capitals either)
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@altaski8, it’s a ski forum. People want to know if it’s going to snow or not and how much. Please go and find a weather forum if you want to spout this irrelevant gobbledygook
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Simplified, less "sciency" version:

In mid-latitudes,
winds are generally correlated to the spacing of isobars on a weather map. In other words, the difference in pressure between the closest dominant H and L (pressure gradient) at the surface. These Hs and Ls are formed and evolve in connection to the upper level pressure field. For example, if air is sinking, it will accumulate down low and correspondingly decrease up high. This builds up high surface pressure and correspondingly low upper level pressure. Upper level features are in turn related to the evolution of the jet streams (primarily polar and subtropical). Further, surface fronts (sharp thermal boundaries between airmasses of different temperature/density) move in concert to the movement of the surface Hs and Ls. So in the mid-latitudes, all features are connected, and weather (including wind) is created from a complex interplay of all those features.

In the tropics,
winds and weather are primarily generated by solar heating which causes convection (rising air). This causes thunderstorms and sometimes the formation of tropical cyclones. These features are isolated and localized. They are not connected to the other surface or upper level features across a widespread area (synoptic-scale).
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@altaski8, well done.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
BobinCH wrote:
@altaski8, it’s a ski forum. People want to know if it’s going to snow or not and how much. Please go and find a weather forum if you want to spout this irrelevant gobbledygook

The more people know about weather, the better they will be able to interpret forecast charts and forecast snow for themselves. I certainly don't think they should be listening to you. I have tried to use factual examples over the past several days to support this belief with respect to your posts.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
German forecasts seem to have a name for pretty much every low or high pressure system. Not quite sure what their threshold is.

I think they should be given Mind names like:

So Much For Subtlety
Size Isn‘t Everything
It‘s Character Forming
Unacceptable Behaviour
Just Passing Through
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
leggyblonde wrote:
@altaski8, what has naming convention got to do with a "Weather Outlook Thread"?

I've got a science background too but an important part of that is to adjust your output according to the intended recipient(s). You're not impressing anyone here.

People keep bringing up Ciara and Dennis. I'm not trying to impress you or anyone. The weather-IQ seems very low on this ski/weather forum. It surprises me to see so much reliance on automated, point and click, snow forecast algorithms. Noza is slowly trying to nudge the masses towards enlightenment.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Wed 12-02-20 12:40; edited 1 time in total
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
altaski8 wrote:
leggyblonde wrote:
@altaski8, could be argued that giving any weather feature or event a name is childish but to bring it up just to use lots of sciency talk on a snow forecasting thread is more so.

Oh OK, so now we're making fun of weather-educated people on a weather forum.


TBF and please don't take this the wrong way, I find most of your posts quite complex and full of scientific terms that I have no idea what they mean (and yes, I do have 2 degrees) ... we just need to be mindful that the vast majority of posters and readers prefer posts to be more succinct, simple to understand and, more importantly focused on the relationship between prevailing weather patterns and snow conditions (explained in simple English), weather and snow forecasts etc. Something that people line @nozawaonsen, @polo etc do very well.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
jedster wrote:
davidof wrote:
altaski8 wrote:
Hopefully we can squeeze out at least 15cm for lots of places.


15cm where there is an established base is nice, otherwise it will just melt off in the first sun.


That's true. Think the base above 1600m in the N Alps is pretty good though

There is certainly a base at that altitude... Even lower in the north
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@altaski8,

Where’s it gonna snow, when is it gonna snow, how long is it gonna snow, how good or bad are the snow conditions?

In the words of Forest Gump “that’s about all I gotta say bout that”
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
altaski8 wrote:
leggyblonde wrote:
@altaski8, what has naming convention got to do with a "Weather Outlook Thread"?

I've got a science background too but an important part of that is to adjust your output according to the intended recipient(s). You're not impressing anyone here.

People keep bringing up Ciara and Dennis. I'm not trying to impress you or anyone. The weather-IQ seems very low on this ski/weather forum. It surprises me to see so much reliance on automated, point and click, snow forecast algorithms. Noza is slowly trying to nudge the masses towards enlightenment.


altaski8 - I suggest you google "tact". If you wish to send me another PM please feel free, I'll probably have the IQ to understand it.


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Wed 12-02-20 13:17; edited 1 time in total
snow conditions     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
altaski8 wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
@altaski8, it’s a ski forum. People want to know if it’s going to snow or not and how much. Please go and find a weather forum if you want to spout this irrelevant gobbledygook

The more people know about weather, the better they will be able to interpret forecast charts and forecast snow for themselves. I certainly don't think they should be listening to you. I have tried to use factual examples over the past several days to support this belief with respect to your posts.


@Noza has got that covered. You’re just a pompous twit. And you continue to prove it over and over and over again...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
jirac18 wrote:
@altaski8,

Where’s it gonna snow, when is it gonna snow, how long is it gonna snow, how good or bad are the snow conditions?

In the words of Forest Gump “that’s about all I gotta say bout that”

I post my thoughts about those specific concerns daily. In fact that's almost all I ever post about.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Smokin Joe wrote:


altaski8 - I suggest you google "tact". If you wish to send me another PM please feel free, I'll probably have the IQ to understand it.

Pot kettle black.
This may be better directed at some of your cohorts.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
No one else like the ship names idea? Thought it was rather good myself.

No More Mister Nice Guy
Jaundiced Outlook
The Precise Nature Of The Catastrophe

No one else read Iain M Banks? The level of education on this thread is quite simply appalling.
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nozawaonsen wrote:

No More Mister Nice Guy.


This. Please
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
altaski8 wrote:
leggyblonde wrote:
@altaski8, what has naming convention got to do with a "Weather Outlook Thread"?

I've got a science background too but an important part of that is to adjust your output according to the intended recipient(s). You're not impressing anyone here.

People keep bringing up Ciara and Dennis. I'm not trying to impress you or anyone. The weather-IQ seems very low on this ski/weather forum. It surprises me to see so much reliance on automated, point and click, snow forecast algorithms. Noza is slowly trying to nudge the masses towards enlightenment.


I am not sure that is true. Most folk simply want to know "what will the snow be like in my holiday resort next week", they have little or no interest in being able to answer that question for themselves from the available meteorological information, they are more than happy with an app that simply shows an icon and temperature. On a slightly more technical level are the forecasts provided on the resort websites, in the Austrian case these mostly come from ZAMG, the "national" weather service. These are produced by professional meteorologists, using the various data sources. My observations of these is that they are simply not up to date enough, weather is a very dynamic thing, by the time the forecasts are produced and distributed they are going to be a few iterations of forecasts in the past but again for almost everyone else they are more than enough.

It is only those who have an interest in weather who are going to make the time to study constantly changing data and model forecasts. A number of the contributors here also have a lot of experience of a particular area and the weather and snow conditions there. That local experience is often invaluable in being able to interpret theoretical forecasts and turn it into "what is the skiing going to be like next week" answers. After all this is a snowsports forum not a climate science or meteorology forum.
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the wasp factory
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@munich_irish, don’t waste your time and energy. A couple of PM’s from him suggest that he is beyond help...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@polo, nah that’s Iain Banks. Doesn’t count.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Warth 1494m

Monday



Today




http://youtube.com/v/E2D2oUNTbjU
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@altaski8, I think they name them just so the average person can relate to it more easily, hence talk about it and thus make others aware and less likely to do themselves an injury.

It is very much a British obsession talking about the weather.

Caveat: Those going full out for the Darwin award rolling eyes rolling eyes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51447226
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
munich_irish wrote:

Most folk simply want to know "what will the snow be like in my holiday resort next week", they have little or no interest in being able to answer that question for themselves from the available meteorological information, they are more than happy with an app that simply shows an icon and temperature.

If that's true there's nothing useful in this thread.

GFS point-and-click ensembles are here:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php
CMC here:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc.php
ECMWF here:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens.php
Other ensemble data here:
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ensembles.php

Snow-forecast meteograms here:
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/

I guess everyone can leave now.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen wrote:
No one else like the ship names idea? Thought it was rather good myself.

No More Mister Nice Guy
Jaundiced Outlook
The Precise Nature Of The Catastrophe

No one else read Iain M Banks? The level of education on this thread is quite simply appalling.


The reference was not wasted on me, just slow to the party.
Have read and re read all of his books and yes, the naming of Mind ships still makes me smile

Very Little Gravitas Indeed
Size Isn't Everything
Frank Exchange Of Views
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@altaski8, I understood your original post but was bamboozled by your simple version!

I kind of agree with you. For example, weather disruption in central Scotland this weekend was minimal during Storm Ciara, but bigger during the cold, windy episode from Monday to Wednesday which wasn't directly associated with a particular low pressure system. Another frustration is when the national media pick up on a named storm only affecting SW England (for example) and lead people in northern Scotland (for example) to think they're in for a rough ride.

However, I think the advantages of greater awareness outweigh the disadvantages. It certainly gets people talking about any depression which merits an amber weather warning somewhere in the UK (which is, I think, the criterion for naming a storm, unless Ireland gets there first). This does lead people to take extra precautions - e.g. noticeably fewer cars on the road.

Another thing that's a bit weird is how the same storm can be given several different names by different countries. Ciara was called Sabine further east in Europe, and the next is Dennis / Tomris. Conversely, I can also remember several ex-hurricanes which avoided being given storm names by the UK / Irish agencies because they used the hurricane name - which led to lots of people claiming that there was a hurricane about to hit the UK...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@BobinCH, PM me if you have such a hard-on for me. Nobody else cares what we think of each other.
snow report     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
denfinella wrote:
@altaski8, I understood your original post but was bamboozled by your simple version!

I kind of agree with you. For example, weather disruption in central Scotland this weekend was minimal during Storm Ciara, but bigger during the cold, windy episode from Monday to Wednesday which wasn't directly associated with a particular low pressure system. Another frustration is when the national media pick up on a named storm only affecting SW England (for example) and lead people in northern Scotland (for example) to think they're in for a rough ride.

However, I think the advantages of greater awareness outweigh the disadvantages. It certainly gets people talking about any depression which merits an amber weather warning somewhere in the UK (which is, I think, the criterion for naming a storm, unless Ireland gets there first). This does lead people to take extra precautions - e.g. noticeably fewer cars on the road.

Another thing that's a bit weird is how the same storm can be given several different names by different countries. Ciara was called Sabine further east in Europe, and the next is Dennis / Tomris. Conversely, I can also remember several ex-hurricanes which avoided being given storm names by the UK / Irish agencies because they used the hurricane name - which led to lots of people claiming that there was a hurricane about to hit the UK...


Good post. I'm in Germany and I kept hearing about Sabine in the local media and then reading about Ciara on here. I thought at first there were multiple storms. It was confusing.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
altaski8 wrote:
@BobinCH, PM me if you have such a hard-on for me. Nobody else cares what we think of each other.


I appreciate you have some trouble with reality, but my comments are not really suggesting a « hard on » effect. More like a « f**k off » effect. If you are really blind to the multiple comments from multiple posters above criticising the tone of your posts, you should get some help, as I politely suggested in the pm.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I've always really enjoyed reading Noza's weather forecast views, amongst others, on this page, it's a shame when someone disrupts the equilibrium.

How about Feersum Endjinn for a storm name?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@alj, ooh that’s good. Not a ship name, but if we go non canon it means we can use @polo’s suggestion so let’s do it!

Meanwhile 12z GFS is seconds away from rolling out and everyone is doubtless panting in excitement.
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I think here more views the better tbh....only takes a moment to flick past what you don't like and onto what you do.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
No one else like the ship names idea? Thought it was rather good myself.

No More Mister Nice Guy
Jaundiced Outlook
The Precise Nature Of The Catastrophe

No one else read Iain M Banks? The level of education on this thread is quite simply appalling.


God I love those books. I know a guy who studied English Lit at a top University. Think he introduced me to them. I can remember his slightly troubled / unsure expression when he said "Thing is I've studied all this literature and I'm not sure why this isn't the best"
I love Iain Banks too.
I was miserable when he announced he was dying.
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Quote:

Meanwhile 12z GFS is seconds away from rolling out and everyone is doubtless panting in excitement.


Oh yes.

Sainte Foy is in my near future Happy.

This page is cracking me up. Bearing in mind weather is one thing no one can influence, people get very tetchy about it lol.

D
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The 12z GFS continues to show some love for the Dolomites early next week. Nothing major but still significant precipitation (0.5 - 1.0 inch liquid equivalent). The 12z ICON was even wetter for this area. The CMC and ECMWF, thus far, do not show the same enthusiasm south of the main alpine ridge.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Once we get past the early onset of spring this weekend (think flowers bursting out across the pistes, Maypoles - possibly in an Edward Woodward, Britt Ekland way or is that too much? cheerful beer gardens and strong Föhn winds on Sunday) things cool down and stay cool from Monday night till Saturday on that run. So that’s cool.

Know Look What You’ve Made Me Do.
Kiss This Then.
Lapsed Pacifist.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@risb98, Do you know what "very little gravitas" refers to? It's quite funny. https://qntm.org/culture

"...you may be puzzled by the recurring appearance of the word "gravitas" in there. We've got the GCU Very Little Gravitas Indeed from Use of Weapons, the GSV Zero Gravitas in Excession, and the GSV Experiencing A Significant Gravitas Shortfall from Look To Windward.

Spotting this trend, a number of people questioned Iain M. Banks, the author of the Culture novels. He responded saying that it is basically a running gag within the Culture itself. One of the Involved civilisations (i.e. different civs which have an involvement with the Culture) found it a little surprising that ships with such awesome power and intelligence would be given names like I Blame Your Mother and Space Monster. Perhaps it would be more appropriate to choose names with a little more gravitas?

Supposedly one of the Culture ship manufacturies immediately responded to this by beginning to name all their newly-created ships No Gravitas Here, Dwindling Gravitas, Absolutely No You-Know-What and the like, and continued to do so for quite some time.

Banks claims to have a growing list of about 20 "gravitas" ship names at home, but no way to use them up until his next Culture novel."
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
12z GFS for the Dolomites will verify. My wife is a snow-bringer of the highest order. The clouds love her and pay tribute to her with heavy falls every time we go skiing. She has no concept of skiing on ice or tired, old snow. Only the recurring joy of fresh tracks.

We arrive in Selva on Sunday. It’ll snow on Monday.
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