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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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A-Basin is blowing snow.

Keystone and Loveland in the 3way race to open first.

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Tignes glacier looking a bit better with 10-20cm of fresh snow at altitude overnight in the French northern alps

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Dachstein looks nice too Happy

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@davidof, i'm pretty certain you cant say a women is attractive anymore Puzzled
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Quote:


@davidof, i'm pretty certain you cant say a women is attractive anymore


What woman? I assumed @davidoff was referring to the excellent snow coverage in the picture? Very Happy
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@closey1973, in the middle, just behind the can of redbull. Also coverage to 2000M in Zermatt!
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closey1973 wrote:
Quote:


@davidof, i'm pretty certain you cant say a women is attractive anymore


What woman? I assumed @davidoff was referring to the excellent snow coverage in the picture? Very Happy


Indeed I was, now you mention it, there is a young lady blocking the view, I hope she recycled that can.

Storm conditions on the Dachstein today.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Val Tho got a sprinkle, to village level.

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Current cooler temperatures look like switching, by the weekend as high pressure builds over the Alps.

+0 ECM op



+192 ECM op



But, some nice scenes for early October at the moment.

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Cool temps coming out of NW British Columbia over the next few days. More snow at higher elevations for interior BC, Montana and Wyoming. Temps will go back to normal later in the week though. So don't expect it stick around except for at the very highest elevations and North facing slopes.
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closey1973 wrote:
Quote:


@davidof, i'm pretty certain you cant say a women is attractive anymore


What woman? I assumed @davidoff was referring to the excellent snow coverage in the picture? Very Happy


Stelvio looking none too shabby also

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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Overnight frost in parts of Vienna. Earliest in autumn since 2013.

More snow tomorrow down to 1500m in places before warming up into the weekend.

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First frost this morning (Vienna) and a few resorts have started posting snow depths

https://www.bergfex.at/oesterreich/schneewerte/ (click on "Berg" twice to sort order)


Kaprun Looking a lot better than it did 2 weeks ago.

https://www.bergfex.at/kitzsteinhorn-kaprun/webcams/c520/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Solden earlier this morning, prep works underway on the world cup piste

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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
It is +7c at 3000m at dusk in Austria today, so the melt is back on.
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Poster: A snowHead
Bergfex showing another 30cm tomorrow night.

And then temps warm up.

But it is only Oct....
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@Bennyboy1, should be 20cm+ for Hintertux down to 1600m or so tomorrow. After that warming to slightly above average. Sunny this weekend. Rather tempting...
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@nozawaonsen, I won’t be there until mid Nov Sad
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Looking white in Big Sky

https://bigskyresort.com/webcams
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Typhoon Hagibis ploughing it’s way towards Tokyo and already playing havoc with RWC fixtures, Eng Fra and NZ Ita both cancelled on Saturday. Sunday games to be reviewed first thing Sunday morning once Typhoon has passed through. F1 also keeping a close watching ahead of the Grand Prix.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-222.54,34.97,698
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The NW alps only got a dusting yesterday, seems the models struggled with the daytime freeze levels. Even in mid winter I've noticed daytime snowfall forecasted to low levels is very often overestimated, while evening / nightime falls are more accurate. May be talking gibberish though.

Same again same time next week? GFS is out on it's own regarding tues 15 - wed 16 snow. It has a deeper and more southerly low than all the other models, so big differences at just t+120.

And in the 8-10 day charts, signs of the east Atlantic trough finally moving a little further east towards europe, with high pressure in the right places...mid atlantic, and edging into scandinavia.

test8

...pressure ensembles for Stockholm

graphe-ens4
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Some great footage from Hintertux this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/270948112934/posts/10157126779127935?sfns=mo
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Blowing snow in Big Sky. -11C and cold air funneling out of the Gulf of Alaska. https://bigskyresort.com/webcams

With a high latitude jet stream pushing most of the cold air through British Columbia and the Northern States. Should see snow in the Colorado Rockies. It was -8c at the house this morning. Feeling like winter and the Cascades have a nice blanket of snow on the higher elevations. Very Happy
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Toadman wrote:
Blowing snow in Big Sky. -11C and cold air funneling out of the Gulf of Alaska. https://bigskyresort.com/webcams

With a high latitude jet stream pushing most of the cold air through British Columbia and the Northern States. Should see snow in the Colorado Rockies. It was -8c at the house this morning. Feeling like winter and the Cascades have a nice blanket of snow on the higher elevations. Very Happy




http://youtube.com/v/YImAkvMlu8E&feature=youtu.be
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Ruka is open, thanks to snowfarming

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@davidof, disappointing piste today. I thought you had a run going!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
twoodwar wrote:
@davidof, disappointing piste today. I thought you had a run going!


I do, but you have to look Happy

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=148846#3456759
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Typhoon Hagibis has potential to be strongest storm to hit Tokyo for 60 years (when 1000 people died as a result of Typhoon Ida in 1958).

JMA is warning that Hagibis could bring record winds and rainfall.

ANA has cancelled all internal flights to and from Haneda and Narita on Saturday. Shinkansen will be suspended. Trains and subways in Tokyo closed. Toyota is shutting three plants.

Meanwhile, rather a beautiful sunny autumnal day in Salzburg. Trees changing colour and snow on the higher mountains.
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You know it makes sense.
Hagibis may make landfall in next hour or so. Exceptional rainfall so far with a number of rivers looking like they might burst their banks and evacuation orders being issued in places.

Level 5 (disaster) warnings issued for first time in Tokai region.

“Several areas covered by the special warning had record rainfall over a 24-hour period until 11 a.m. on Oct. 12. The Yugashima district of Izu, Shizuoka Prefecture, had 468 millimeters of rain, while Hakone, Kanagawa Prefecture, recorded 452.5 mm, both records for October.” [Asahi Shimbun]
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Yeah it's not good to hear the potential for suffering that will be caused by Hagibis. It's certainly a record breaking storm for that part of the world. Going to be a long few weeks ahead after the storm, given flooding, etc.

Meanwhile for Europe... my outlook for the NH winter ahead.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/10/12/october-preliminary-2019-20-winter-outlook/

"European Alps are forecast to receive a cold and snowy winter. It could be a good one for the Southern Alps, but there should also be good periods for the Northern Alps.

It is my opinion that the British Isles will see a snowier than average season, with cold periods. These prospects look best early and especially mid winter."
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@Jellybeans1000, nice update, some interesting analogues, especially the QBO and -AAM. Of course we don't know what path these drivers will actually take yet, (eg speed of QBO change from W to E), never mind the potential teleconnections and whether those would have the impact expected. But that's why it's a forecast. Clearly put a lot of work in, and much of it beyond me, but who doesn't like to see those low blues over europe Madeye-Smiley

Short term we are in that MJO phase 8 to 1 area I believe, so that would support potential scandi heights.

It's funny how some people argue that x and y indicator were 'largely' correct in hindsight, eg last winter model Long Range Forecasts for -AO and troughs into europe. Whereas 500-1000 mile displacements of a high or low have massive implications for an area the size of the alps. What I am trying to say is, even if x indicator was generally 'right', the actual orientation and precise placement of the high / low makes much more difference to the weather.
Maybe I'm stating the obvious, but we're also dealing with 3-4 month average anomalies....which can hide a huge amount of variation on the ground day to day, even weekly.

Looking into next week, gotta say the GFS (with new FV3 engine) was way ahead of the pack for tues/wed snow. Probably only get 5-10cm from 2500 to 2000m in the NW, but still a lot better than other models were showing a few days ago. Avoriaz down to -1c on wednesday after the front has passed.

Then next weekend the 20-21st potential is cropping up as shown in the above 8-10 day anom charts. Could be brief plunge in temps into central europe before highs build in again.
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Indication of what has been hitting Japan...

https://twitter.com/dwvcd/status/1182971520169046016?s=21

But conditions clear this morning.
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Lots of fooding - Nagano.
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For a real weather & snow geek Smile

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=PdRWGMyeSYY
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Why do the Colorado resorts start earlier than anywhere else even Montana or the Alps? Is there a meteorological reason or simply lots of snow guns?
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südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
Why do the Colorado resorts start earlier than anywhere else even Montana or the Alps? Is there a meteorological reason or simply lots of snow guns?


High altitude, dry air, and cold temps; generally speaking. Makes for good snow making conditions.
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Isn’t there also bragging rights to be first to open?
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Some parts of Japan got 40% of their annual rainfall just during Hagibis...

Snow heading to the Alps. Zermatt in particular could get a lot of fresh snow at altitude.



Start of next week potentially has another spell of cold weather, but uncertainty at this range.
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Might have to get the iron out soon. Those GFS Op charts have been consistent for 70-100cm in the last few days (out to Mon 21st), but the 00z Op is a significant cold/snowy outlier.
GFS takes the low straight down over Swiss, while other models have the low dropping closer to Spain / central France. So at this stage I would expect less snow than shown above, and for it to shift a little further west (so a little warmer too).
Avoriaz...
graphe-ens3

Beyond that, consensus for a low pressure anomaly to sit over the med, with heights building towards Scandi. Not clear yet whether the 2 high zones will merge over northern europe, or keep a gap open.
Here's the GFS mean pressure for Sun 20th, which along with ECM has been modelled well from 8-10 days out.

gens-21-5-150

And GFS Op freeze levels for next monday. But ECM not as good for NW alps, with most precipitation coming in Friday before the temps really drop through the weekend.

gfs-3-186

Edit....GFS 06z Op goes deeper and further east, seems to be leading the models again, as ECM has also increased precip for Sun/Mon.
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kitenski wrote:
Isn’t there also bragging rights to be first to open?

Yes. A Basin ramped up snowmaking and opened briefly on Friday at 3:30 pm to beat Keystone, which opened Saturday. A-basin sits at about 3200 meters. It’s not a particularly large or remarkable resort, but is popular with the younger kids and weekend skiers from Denver. Keystone have extensive snowmaking for the USA, and is at an elevation of around 2700 meters. Opening earliest is purely for bragging rights and publicity.
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