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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

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GFS 06z gets the idea

gfsnh-12-192
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That looks good!
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^^^^^.....for Scandinavia.... Confused Not for the Alps??
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Yep, Sweden got it's earliest snow in 20years last week, and should be a lot more coming into early Oct across the northern regions.

The alps can benefit from deep low pressure systems over scandinavia, as they pull in moisture from the atlantic / north sea and cold air down from an arctic direction (northern stau). But in this case it doesn't look like much will reach the alps, as once again these set ups get swept N and E closer to time, with stubborn high pressure in situ to the south and threatening to build in quickly again.

Still a chance of colder than avg temps, and some useful precipitation, but mixed signals from the ensembles overall.
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Its -10 through Zermatt, not +10 Puzzled
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@twoodwar, above graph is pressure anomaly, not temp, Zermatt looks dry but would see daytime temps dropping from +1 to -5 into early Oct according to ECM (YR.NO)...but too far away to be accurate

If you're referring to the 'high pressure to the south', meant the usual azores ridge. 06z still showing a brief northerly ahead of that.

gfs-0-192
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@polo, oops, should have realised! Cheers
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Yesterday looked pretty nice in Hintertux.

https://www.facebook.com/270948112934/posts/10157083919212935?sfns=mo

More snow (5-10cm, down to 2200m) today. Start of October looking chilly, but agree that for now at least not very snowy.

Meanwhile typhoon pretty much held off for Ireland Scotland and although those in front few rows of seats looked a little damp it did little to stop cascading choruses of Fields of Athenry. Tipped it down in Tokyo later mind you. Sunny now and Kobe looking sunny tomorrow.
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^ must be great to be out there....one of Schmidts buddies commented that Ireland never really have to play away from home.

Models continue to slide the lows further east, underestimating the strength of the sub tropical high that is SW europe. Here's todays view of the same model, same timeframe as above chart.

gfs-0-168

There's a lot going on with Lorenzo forecast to join the atlantic jet stream. Still think eastern parts will see snow in early Oct.
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Getting some consensus for a westerly correction now. Same snapshot below for Oct 2 updated....happen to be using the old GFS 06z runs for this example. Should note that ECM is not as snowy, but is also correcting west on recent runs.
All depends on what track Lorenzo takes in the atlantic....almost a Cat 5 now. It's probably the main factor shaping the high pressure wedge, which then determines where the flow from scandinavia ends up, in very simplistic terms.

gfs-0-144-1
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polo wrote:
Yep, Sweden got it's earliest snow in 20years last week, and should be a lot more coming into early Oct across the northern regions.

The alps can benefit from deep low pressure systems over scandinavia, as they pull in moisture from the atlantic / north sea and cold air down from an arctic direction (northern stau). But in this case it doesn't look like much will reach the alps, as once again these set ups get swept N and E closer to time, with stubborn high pressure in situ to the south and threatening to build in quickly again.

Still a chance of colder than avg temps, and some useful precipitation, but mixed signals from the ensembles overall.



Sweden's highest mountain just lost its title, as the glacier on top has melted away by 100ft.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/09/07/climate-change-swedens-highest-mountain-loses-title-as-glacier-peak-melts/
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Whitegold wrote:

Sweden's highest mountain just lost its title, as the glacier on top has melted away by 100ft.


At least GFS has 100cm on the way at Kebnekaise.

Screenshot-2019-09-27-at-12-37-59

Not much change for Oct 2-3, slight nudge west, but the Lorenzo drama is going to continue to have an impact for a few more days after that. Models have it tracking very close to Azores islands, and some runs showed it off the west coast of Ire.
Bigger picture in the 8-10 day frame is the possibility of atlantic troughs passing under the greenland block. And while ECM has a high pressure area over SW europe, diverting the flow away from the alps, GFS has a more southerly jet into central europe.
Mean pressure anomalies below for weekend 5th-7th Oct (ECM left, GFS right)

test8

If GFS is closer to the mark, then the 10 day snow chart (from 06z Op run) looks like this. Fantasy Island caveat - confidence is low, but hopes are high

240-24
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Still toying with different ideas in the latest outlook:
https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/

Models favouring a +NAO, and many drivers favouring a -NAO. Plenty of cold coming though, as winter starts kicking into gear in Siberia and North America.
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Forecast calling for snow in the Cascades this weekend. Relatively low snow level for this time of year. Maybe 10-15cm to fall at higher elevations mostly Sunday and possibly into Monday. Freezing level at 0C could drop down to 1,000 meters. Means I might have to scrape some snow off the windshield for Monday morning commute. Wasatch range will also see some action as well as Southern Idaho and the Tetons.

Also - This is an interesting read - https://www.yahoo.com/news/melting-ice-slowing-down-atlantic-184800275.html


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Sun 29-09-19 3:56; edited 1 time in total
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Snowing in the Cascades. Started snowing around 5pm down in town (4,000').

Time to wax the boards....

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Kobe stadium was very hot and humid Thursday night. Could be some tricky conditions in Kyushu for France v USA, but Typhoon Mitag currently looking less rather than more likely to hit Fukuoka hard, so cancellation whilst possible, isn’t looking probable for now.

Good graphics showing range of Lorenzo options from 2.37

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0008z52/weather-for-the-week-ahead-29092019
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October kicking off with 20cm+ at altitude in parts of the Eastern Alps.



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Woke up to snow on the car. Had to scrape about an inch off the windshield. Will warm after today. But lots of fresh snow fell in the mountains of WA,OR,Nor Cal., UT, CO, ID and MT. Just a teaser, as October will bring back warmer temps.
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Latest Gfs for Zermatt shows a good temp drop from around the 11th. Possible precipitation therafter. This is the first glimmer of winter. Too far out etc etc. But.... snowHead
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Forecast for Hintertux is suggesting Winter starts tomorrow Smile
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http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/cold-blast-into-central-southern-and-eastern-europe-this-week/
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Colder than average spell for early October showing up clearly here.



http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4
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@nozawaonsen, latest GFS for Zermatt and elsewhere backing this up this morning. Heres hoping for the early season crowd.
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@twoodwar, WX maps anomaly charts are actually based on GFS data so you’d expect them to be the same. This evenings ECM also showing a generally cold first third of October as well. Here it is at +120.

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@nozawaonsen, yes, but weren't they from different runs?
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@denfinella, fair point just wanted to make sure that everyone was aware of where the data from the WXMaps chart cane from (good old GFS op run). If everyone is already on board, then everyone’s already on board.


http://youtube.com/v/JgvNWcq-xJI
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Nice funky soul Noza. Yes a later gfs run though?
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@denfinella, doh! Embarassed
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@nozawaonsen, got it, thanks.
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Here is a reasonably detailed review of the various long range forecasts for the upcoming winter, assuming they are vaguely correct there could well be less snow around this upcoming season.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2019-2020-early-look/
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@munich_irish, that seems to be a good website, but no model, or group of models, has ever proven that they have a long term forecasting skill. If they are right this year, it would likely be a fluke.

Strongly +NAO could mean less snow for some parts (presumably compared to last year?), but more snow for others..... even with a large high pressure anomaly over Europe.
Here's last seasons chart, showing we generally had the same blocking high pressure anomaly over europe and +NAO that the article refers to, but it was considered a pretty good season, exceptional at times in the east, but the west also had regular snow from start to end. Early Feb was one of the best weeks I've ever had. And of course the south had that early season 3-4m dump.

k-Pf-Mo9-Jo-At-1

Personally I think we'll see much more northern blocking this year (-AO and -NAO). Records have already been broken for consecutive -NAO days this summer.
I like to keep things simple, solar minimum has been my fundamental theory for this season and next, but am interested in all the teleconnection and analogue stuff (GWV) as well. Jellybeans is much more adept at this next level 'mumbo jumbo', but I read a lot of the netweather posts and there are plenty of positive signs, mixed with a few negatives. Same as it ever was.

Back to the now-forecasting, somewhat unsurprisingly the atlantic lows have struggled to break down the thin ridge that keeps popping up in the France - UK - Norway area. Not something we want to see repeating all winter. At least it does allow some cold air in from the north / east, and the occasional troughs inevitably slide under (like this weekend). Further out need to see more energy going under the northern block, like what GFS and ECM (below) are showing for 10th -15th timeframe.
Am always suspicious though when the models show a quick transition (like todays ECM 12z t+96 to t+120) where the low easily slides under the high....they don't have a good track record at this pattern, but hopefully we still get to this:

ECH101-192

Saw that UK first ground frost this week was 14 days ahead of 42year average....and the hedgehogs are out early in France, just snapped one of the suspects who's chewing up my shoelaces in the garden. Sure signs snow is coming.

IMG-7907
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It is not all doom and gloom. Sjusjøen in Norway have opened a ski de fond piste thanks to new snow, snow making and snow farming. Ok it looks a bit rock and roll but #winteriscoming

https://www.facebook.com/sjusjoenhytteutleie/videos/499706204211253/
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Dachstein and Stelvio looking good today
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Met Office Contingency Planners going for “moderately [increased] chances of a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.” for OND.

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, with very little likelihood of a significant El Niño or La Niña event developing during the outlook period. It is therefore not expected to have any influence on UK weather patterns. Sub-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean show a pattern of cooler-than-usual waters in sub-polar and sub-tropical latitudes, with warmer-than-usual waters in mid-latitudes. The outlook period is a time of year when surface temperatures reconnect with those beneath the surface, and therefore this pattern is expected to become more prominent at the surface. Its effect on the atmosphere is to moderately increase the chances of a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. At this time of year, this is associated with more frequent westerly winds from the Atlantic and milder-than-average conditions.
For October-November-December, the Met Office long-range forecast system, along with systems from other centres around the world, suggests an increased likelihood of below-average sea level pressure to the north and west of the UK. This pattern would lead to a greater-than-usual incidence of mild westerly or south-westerly winds across the UK which, along with the warming of climate, contributes to an increase in the chances of above-average temperatures (see figure T2). Note that below-average temperatures remain possible, although less likely.
The relatively high probability of our warmest category does not imply extreme or unseasonal temperatures throughout the 3-month period. Indeed, the outlook does not identify weather for a particular day or week. The increased likelihood of this category could mean greater chances of days with temperatures that are above average to a more modest degree. Above-average temperatures at this time of year do not imply sunny and dry conditions.”
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warm and wet them. Just like summer, - in the north at least!
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@polo, you got it pretty much. A -NAO is certainly a possibility that intrigues me, based on a number of reasons.
Could be a cold one for Europe.
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Nice fall days out in the PNW. Will be warm for the next week. Good chance to go for a hike with the dog.

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Good snowfall for October over next few days.

This out to Monday



More midweek.
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@nozawaonsen, I couldn't reconcile those numbers with the current forecasts, eg from the chart above Zermatt looks like it's getting 50cm over next few days, yet this doesn't appear in GFS / ECM / WRF short term numbers, eg WRF Zermatt has 10cm to monday. The difference is that chart you use show's snow depth as of Monday....and not snow accumulation from now until Monday.

So the starting point actually looks like this, with only 10cm extra due to fall today / tomorrow
nmm-fr1-26-3-0

That's why I prefer to use 'Cumul Neige depuis 0h" instead of "Couche de Neige" if you want to highlight the amount that's forecasted to fall.

So the 5-7th weekend is going to deliver some widespread snow, just not as much as GFS was calling 7 days ago. As if often the case when ECM and GFS outlooks differ sustantitally (above), we end up with a blended outcome....ECM was right to keep high pressure over SW europe, but the Jetsteam also managed to run around it enough on a SE track to bring some snow.

Further into the next week 11-15th, the atlantic has pushed thru the high pressure over UK, but too much has sunk back into europe, leaving a very flat westerly pattern. Ideally we would have seen some slider lows drag cold down on a SE track, but instead now it looks like the toughing will form out in the eastern atlantic, leaving the alps under a milder SW airmass, with high pressure over eastern europe. Still 8-10 days away so it wouldn't take much adjustment to get a trough to dig into central europe at some point, or for the low area to west to gradually move into France.

test8

And if the 06z GFS Op can be believed, then we could see some better snowfall on Wednesday, possilbly 20cm to 2000m. Here's the europe view to thurs 10th, and the Avoriaz ensembles which show the precipitation spikes lining up nicely with the coldest dips.

96-24-1
graphe-ens3-1


Starting to rain heavily here now.....might see the first coatings on the local webcams tomorrow morning, and more on wed/thurs
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@polo, absolutely, my mistake. Distracted whilst doing other things and hit the wrong tab... Cumul de neige is the one to reach for.

Should be 10-15cm by Monday for Hintertux with the snowline dropping to 1600m. Then looking like 5-10cm down to 2000m on Wednesday.

Here’s how it was looking for Thursday’s park opening.



https://www.facebook.com/270948112934/posts/10157110224822935?sfns=mo
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