 Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, my understanding is that a SSW event would have far less effect now than if it had happened in December? Surely if such an event does happen in the near future the delay between the event and the effects being noticeable on our weather would mean it would be early March before we would see an easterly airstream and potential cooler weather which is all a bit late for winter snow? Was the "snowmaggedon" pattern last year preceded by a SSW (I dont believe it was but might be wrong)?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@munich_irish, so just to recap. Your saying that “surely” there is nothing positive at all to look forward to and fundamentally your pessimistic about life?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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A more serious response. Firstly at this stage it’s far from clear that an SSW event will occur. We’ll have to wait and see. Secondly if there is one it is unclear what the impact may be. It certainly doesn’t guarantee snow in the Alps if it leads to a “Beast from the East” they are cold, but also often dry. We’ll have to wait and see. Thirdly how long will those impacts take to arrive if they do? Tends to be between two to four weeks. So if it did take place in early February you’d expect the effects to appear in the second half of February early March. Not quite sure why that would be too late for winter snow.
Here’s BBC coverage of the cold and snow across Europe following the February 2018 SSW.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43218229
And some further Met Office background.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming
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@munich_irish, Last year you had a SSW around New Year, early January. However, the effect was mostly over the North American continent and not Europe. And the delay from the SSW to the snowmaggedon was maybe too short. Last time we had an “European” SSW with a southern jet for a long time and ice cold temperatures over Scandinavia was in February/March 2018.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sun 26-01-20 16:37; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Reports back from the other half, snowing in Avoriaz (sorry for a “look out the window” post - I have no weather prediction talents)!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Yeah, snowing, but not really settling in Chamonix.
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@nozawaonsen, I am only pessimistic about the prospects for serious amounts of snow this season, I still think mainly dry and mild 
My experience from the past 20 years is that weather from the east is more common in summer and when it does happen in the winter it is generally cold and dry. Big snow for upper Bavaria / Tirol is usually when there is a low pressure system over the Baltic which brings a succession of fronts down from the north (last year being a perfect example) and I dont believe that has much (if anything) to do with a SSW event.
Snow in March is certainly not uncommon but it tends to be wetter and usually doesnt hang around for long.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Well yes you are right about weather from the east being drier, but there are plenty of examples of heavy snowfall in March and April (more so in the mountains than the valleys). But you do seem to be hunting out the negative at every turn.
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There are only 3 weeks of coldest winter left, before the spring melt begins.
The Alps are running out of winter.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
There are only 3 weeks of coldest winter left, before the spring melt begins.
The Alps are running out of winter. |
What altitude are you talking about?
Above 2000m the spring melt doesn't start until end of March at the earliest, above 2500m we're even talking at least April
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Skiwi222, he’s a dull troll. As is sometimes the case there is a modicum of truth in what he says about the months inevitably moving on (extraordinarily they do this every year), but the way the message is drafted makes it quite clear he’s looking to alarm and wind people up, not contribute in a useful way. You should see some of the inflammatory dog whistle stuff he engages in on other threads.
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Aaahh...I'm fairly new here, so didn't realize that yet. Good to know, thanks 
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You know it makes sense.
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ECM 12z now also toying with cold spell around 05 February.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Beware of the smug, selfimportant weather nerds
Peak-winter in the Northern Hemisphere is on February 11th.
Temperatures warmup thereafter.
The melt begins.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Whitegold wrote: |
There are only 3 weeks of coldest winter left, before the spring melt begins.
The Alps are running out of winter. |
peak cold, maybe, peak snow is the first weeks of March for the Southern French Alps and Pyrenees in terms of snow depths. Later for the Northern French Alps. So at least six weeks left before the big thaw.
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 26-01-20 20:41; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Beware of the smug, selfimportant weather nerds
Peak-winter in the Northern Hemisphere is on February 11th.
Temperatures warmup thereafter.
The melt begins. |
You're a melt.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
Really? Temps might go up but looks like on average snow depths don’t start going down until April on non South facing aspects?
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ah you posted the same thing... yes for les Arcs (2000) peak snow is the start of April.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Whitegold, why do you bother ?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| davidof wrote: |
| BobinCH wrote: |
Really? Temps might go up but looks like on average snow depths don’t start going down until April on non South facing aspects?
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ah you posted the same thing... yes for les Arcs (2000) peak snow is the start of April. |
Yes this ones on the French / Swiss border at 2000m and not much difference
It is one if the reasons why March / April is the best time of year to hit the high North facing resorts IMO.
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Most North American locals I’ve spoken with say the best conditions are consistently in March and early April. I doubt it’s much different in the Alps.
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| Ptspeak wrote: |
| Most North American locals I’ve spoken with say the best conditions are consistently in March and early April. I doubt it’s much different in the Alps. |
You'll notice on Bobinch's chart the little "Janvril" peak in the second half of April. It is pretty commonplace.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Whitegold,
You are confusing the thermal land minimum with average Peak snow. At altitude the difference is as much as 3 months 
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@Ptspeak, @davidof, If 'best conditions' means sunny skiing in the morning before a 6 hour lunch then 'yes'
Otherwise - in the Alps - 'No'.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| davidof wrote: |
| Ptspeak wrote: |
| Most North American locals I’ve spoken with say the best conditions are consistently in March and early April. I doubt it’s much different in the Alps. |
You'll notice on Bobinch's chart the little "Janvril" peak in the second half of April. It is pretty commonplace. |
Yeah snow above ~1000m - 1500m (depending on region) in the Alps in April is very common. But any apparent peak in snow depth in April is an artifact due to the small sample size. A curve of the true long-term average snow depth at that location in April would be a smooth downward sloping curve.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I agree that March is historically the best time of year for skiing in many locations in both North America and the European Alps. In high elevations I would also agree that this extends into April. The peak ski season to me is the coincidence between the deepest seasonal snow pack and climatological averages that still support frequent snowfalls. The extra hour or two of daylight is a bonus.
Exceptions would be lower elevations, dry regions with southerly exposures that are prone to thin cover and melting, and regions with high Maritime influence. In most of these areas, sometime in February is probably the peak ski season.
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Enough of the negative ninny natterings here....
I was guilty of that myself last week prior to arriving here in Val in Friday . But tbf so far we've had lovely piste skiing weather, with the pistes in mostly great condition. There's about 1/2m fresh forecast from Monday night to Wed am, which should give us plenty of fresh for the remainder of the week....
... so turning out really nicely hopefully!!
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You know it makes sense.
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@altaski8, @davidof, does have a reasonable pedigree for talking about snow conditions. Not his first rodeo as it were.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@horgand, if you are in Val d’Isere I wouldn’t be surprised if you receive more than 50cm mid week. With potentially strong winds you could end up with some lift closures too.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Vanoise NP through Switzerland to Vorarlberg continues to look good for a solid hit over the next several days. Tyrol to Salzburg are kind of on the fence... should get a good topper and maybe more. Not much excitement locally for the Bavarian pre-Alps.
We'll then have to get through a few days of a spring-like weather. Hopefully the hints of a northerly jet out towards the long-range are real. And hopefully the alignment favors full-range storm impacts.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @altaski8, @davidof, does have a reasonable pedigree for talking about snow conditions. Not his first rodeo as it were. |
I believe you. But why the roundabout post? Something I posted you disagree with?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@altaski8, not quite sure what you mean, I was just making you aware that @davidof, has some form in this field. So even though the Janvril comment might appear counter intuitive there could yet be something in it. And having some idea of his background and experience I wouldn’t dismiss it.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @altaski8, not quite what you mean, I was just making you aware that @davidof, has some form in this field. So even though the Janvril comment might appear counter intuitive there could yet be something in it. And having some idea of his background and experience I wouldn’t dismiss it. |
It is definitely helpful to know a person's background for interpreting, understanding, and learning. But a person's background doesn't change reality. When a discussion touches on statistics, it is approaching my background... especially when it involves climatology. That is why I posted what I did. April is a "noisy" month in terms of snowfall. But long-term averages smooth out that noise. It should be fairly obvious from both a statistical AND climatological standpoint that there cannot be a discernible peak in late April because that would require very specific timing of weather patterns year after year.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sun 26-01-20 23:12; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @altaski8, not quite sure what you mean, I was just making you aware that @davidof, has some form in this field. So even though the Janvril comment might appear counter intuitive there could yet be something in it. And having some idea of his background and experience I wouldn’t dismiss it. |
well it was just a random comment, I noticed the uptick for peak years on bobinch's chart for peak years and wondered if it was due to the Janvril effect. I will post the Meteo France graphics when I have time for people to analyse
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@altaski8, well @BobinCH’s chart clearly show a smooth downward descent for the mean depths. It’s in the maximum it shows up. But it’s also not clear over what period that data is drawn from. If you have some alternative data though it would be great to see it!
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sun 26-01-20 23:16; edited 1 time in total
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deleted
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 26-01-20 23:18; edited 2 times in total
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| red 27 wrote: |
@Ptspeak, @davidof, If 'best conditions' means sunny skiing in the morning before a 6 hour lunch then 'yes'
Otherwise - in the Alps - 'No'. |
whatever people enjoy but generally I ski morning to closing even at the end of April.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| altaski8 wrote: |
I believe the "uptick" is the single deepest year. |
I think the max must be the maximum value for that day across all years, otherwise the max line would show a lot more variability.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| it’s also not clear over what period that data is drawn from! |
I have asked them how long they’ve been recording this data
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FAQ
