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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sölden webcam

https://www.bergfex.at/soelden/webcams/c5690/
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I dont think the snow will last long Sad . Forecast for next week is warm sunny weather, up to 25 degrees again, perfect for the start of Oktoberfest! Also perfect weather for walking (as opposed to sliding down) in the mountains.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Stubai to open a few lifts/slopes on Friday, and reporting 55cm on the mountain.
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munich_irish wrote:
I dont think the snow will last long Sad


Probably, but at least the weather gods have started to tease us with a negligee of snow.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Out the office window just now

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And near Livigno

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Whitegold wrote:
Interesting chart on September snowfall in Denver, Colorado, for the past 138 years.

No major Sep snowfall this century, due to global warming.


5 inches are forecast for the Wasatch this week above 8500ft.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Should see a bit of snow in certain parts of the Rockies, Tetons and higher elevations in the Cascades over the next few days. Won't stick around, but will serve as a reminder that winter is coming.
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Nice video of first powder of the season on Hintertux!!

https://www.facebook.com/270948112934/posts/10157050438322935?sfns=mo
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^^ Bloody Nico gets all the fun Laughing
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
^^ Yeti shots in September....good to see people getting out there

Screenshot-2019-09-10-at-22-12-25
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Some people like naming storms, some people less so, however either way here is the shared list the Irish, UK and Dutch Met Offices are using this winter.



https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index

If Dennis is not a Menace I will be disappointed...

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Grönemeyer. Vienna tonight, Schladming tomorrow. Weather looks good.


http://youtube.com/v/TExBKRN48c0
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Jim Steenburgh’s seasonal take...

https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2019/09/dont-obsess-over-outlook.html?m=1
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Cold (below average for the time of year) temperatures are on the way back from mid week (though not currently accompanied by fresh snowfall).



Meanwhile Hintertux looks quite tempting this morning...

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Poster: A snowHead
Stubaier Gletscher looking pretty decent! pic from snowforecast.com facebook page

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Geeky model update.

https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2019/09/how-good-is-new-gfs.html?m=1
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sounds like the weather forecast accuracy will be about the same?
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@twoodwar, yep sounds more iterative than revolutionary and whilst it’s catching ECM at day three that’s before ECM’s update is factored in.

This was interesting (though not that surprising):

“They have effective grid spacings of 10-15 km and thus do not adequately resolve the topography, leading to excessive lowland and slightly underdone mountain precipitation.”
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Nudging +10c at 3000m in Austria today.

Very hot.
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Yep, the "Altweibersommer" is going to be around for a few weeks to come.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Today’s been gorgeous and tomorrow looks fine too, though second half of this week looking decidedly cold still before warming up for the weekend again.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Just read page one guidelines for the reliability of forecasts etc, and saw this:

nozawaonsen wrote:
So those guys promising you it’s all so easy? Well. It isn’t. Wasn’t last year, won’t be next year.

Good that hopefully should have cleared things up a bit.


Am curious to know who are "those guys"?
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@polo, that would risk dragging this thread into an area which is much covered in other far more heated threads.
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And heat and snow are not the best of friends Cool Cool
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Begs the question why put it on the first post.....in any case, it's hunting season Skullie

IMG-7894


Found this out walking the dog just now, about 200m from my back garden, near the lake. Will try to find out what the local times are up in the hills, but lower down it's Thursdays and Sundays until January (or first hard frost). I've met some of the hunters down the pub and they seem decent....the leader of the pack invited 20 locals around to share the biggest kill recently, mostly wild boar.

Weather wise, high pressure block keeps wobbling back and forth, so when the models can't agree which direction it's going to shift, then it's likely not going anywhere soon. But more and more signs building that it will sink SE, allowing some westerly action to reach uk/france. But at this stage it all looks very flat.

The Polar Vortex is starting to slowly ramp up, while consistently below long term trend....promoting chances of high latittude blocking, but the real action is over the South Pole, with record breaking SSW bringing 50c + temp anomalies. Read that this is only the second ever major SSW in the south. Apparently the more stable ice and circular land mass means less tropical heat heading poleward.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
polo wrote:
Begs the question why put it on the first post.....


Well if you really want me to expand. It was a general point about forecasting complicated, complex or indeed chaotic situations. Whether politics or weather, forecasting it is never simple.

Those that tend to suggest it is and want forecasts to simply be black and white or indeed state outcomes with greater certainty than they merit, risk misleading people.

Which is why I thought it worth putting it on the first page.

More importantly it looks a bit wet this weekend in Tokyo.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Light bit of snow in the Southern Cascades. Snow level down to right around 7,000 feetish. Will warm back up for the weekend. Old man winter just stretching a bit before he cools off and wraps the mountains in a deep winter blanket of white.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
JMA November outlook has increased likelihood of warmer than average temperatures for November.



The mild Autumn is delaying the arrival of peak autumn leaves.

https://s.n-kishou.co.jp/w/sp/koyo/koyo_top.html?&fla=en
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Always a little bit different the Japanese, hope the weather there doesn't impact the rugby world cup. But I do love watching the leaves change....seems early this year, as it's been very dry.

For those guys wanting black and white forecasts, I suggest fax charts.

As for stating outcomes with greater certainty than they merit? Yes forecasting is risky, but personally I embrace risk every day, trying to stay measured and disciplined. Weather forecasting 'risk' is not one that I lay awake worrying about though. In any case, this thread is pretty caveat heavy most of the time, with good reason. We saw just last week how a 10 day forecast went from showing a -8c anomaly to +8c in reality. Vast majority here know that things can change very quickly. And this may seem a bit cheeky / pedantic, no offense meant, but last year there were a few occasions where you emphatically stated that it would not snow in France in the next week, but it did, so it can happen to the best of us Cool. (eg page 37).

Anyway, it's thanks to all your good work that got me into forecasting in the first place.
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Well, to be fair, the Autumnal equinox isn't until Sept. 23rd. So the leaves are waiting until after that to start changing colors! wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Light pre-Autumnal snow fall in the Sierras.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/summer-snow-arrives-california-ski-140101465.html
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Thankfully, I'll have an interest in this thread this year............
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@DB, love it! A negligee of snow. Soon to evaporate. I dream on . . .
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Was in Tokyo a couple weeks ago and it was scorching hot.

Nudging 30-35c, most days.

Locals said it had been a boiling summer, and that normally dominoed on to a warmer fall and winter.
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I feel for the folks in Houston, Texas. HOU airport reported 6 inches of rain in 90 minutes. Over 20 inches of rain in 24 hours in some parts of Texas. Can you imagine a storm like that hitting the Alps, or your mtn range of choice during winter, with temps below 0 C? That would be over 200 inches of snow!!! In 24 hours!!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/gallery/2019/sep/20/imelda-photos-texas-floods

My former boss lives near Houston. They basically shut down the city, and it will be quite a clean up effort.
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Possibility of more September snow for Hintertux. 10cm+ down to 2500m Monday and midweek.

Sunny and humid in Yokohama, but Typhoon Tapah incoming.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Toadman wrote:
I feel for the folks in Houston, Texas. HOU airport reported 6 inches of rain in 90 minutes. Over 20 inches of rain in 24 hours in some parts of Texas. Can you imagine a storm like that hitting the Alps, or your mtn range of choice during winter, with temps below 0 C? That would be over 200 inches of snow!!! In 24 hours!!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/gallery/2019/sep/20/imelda-photos-texas-floods

My former boss lives near Houston. They basically shut down the city, and it will be quite a clean up effort.


That was a biggie, for sure.
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A-Basin and Loveland getting ready to blast neige.

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Some interesting chart watching coming up, especially for the time of year. Big high pressure block over eastern US up into Greenland / Arctic and low's over Scandinavia.
Am watching the UKMO at 144 as it's the most westerly of the bunch. The long fetch NE become more N on other models in time, but it's the amount of ridging in the atlantic that will determine how far east the low system pushes, and UKMO at the moment has the flattest reach.

UW144-21

Odds favour the east for any northerly weather around month end. Usual caveats, hurricanes etc
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