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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Beyond 10 days is very low reliability. Climatology beats guidance, even ensemble averages, at that range. But it looks like a relatively progressive, zonal pattern with transient cold and occasional fronts in the long range. Such a scenario would favor the high elevations of the W, SW, or NW Alps. There's too much Atlantic air throughout western Europe this winter.

Let's get some precipitation inside 7 days and see how things look. At least in Bavaria this is the worst December and January that I can remember. Spring is getting closer, but there is still time to turn things around. And there can always be surprises. Maybe the dampening s/w moving through the southern Alps Fri/Sat will overproduce.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@twoodwar, yeah, the latest GFS has a low pressure that will hit the Alps in the last couple of days in January. After that it is another high pressure building up over the Alps in early February.

I am just saying that the long term teleconnections point towards a continuation of the present situation. When you combine that with both EC and GFS operationals and ensambles, there are no strong signs for a large scale change. I am praying for snow in the Alps and really hope we will see some heavy snowfall in the last days of January. However, it seems more likely that the general AO and NAO plus regime will continue into February with a northern jet stream. I hope these long term forecasts are wrong and that we will have a pleasant surprise with a large pattern change.
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Incoming: Eastern Pyrenees about to get blitzed down to valley level.

We look like having more snow in the French NA Friday/Saturday, if so that will be the 4th Friday in a row that it has snowed around here. Conditions are good above 1000-1400 meters now.


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 21-01-20 16:15; edited 1 time in total
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I'm desperately hoping for some snow between now and 9 Feb in the Monte Rosa area, as there hasn't been any for a month now and I think the slopes will be pretty hard and icy, however well pisted. Primarily going there for the off-piste but that looks out of the question now, alas, as I don't think there's time to build up a decent top layer to cover the rocks even if it does snow next weekend.
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twoodwar wrote:
Gfs is still showing lowered temps and precipitation in Austria at least from the beginning of Feb


which is known as Fantasy Island as it's too far away to have much resemblance! 24-48 hours forecasts are the most reliable!!
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altaski8 wrote:
Yes things look pretty bleak along the northern Alps for snow lovers. Despite this past weekend's dusting, the cover is very thin, especially at low elevations. Temperatures are expected to be above normal all week with no guidance showing much more than a hint of something to get excited about all the way out to the long-range.

The longwave pattern actually did change somewhat this past weekend, which had been advertised by the models almost all the way back to the turn of the year. Unfortunately the realization of that pattern change with a large, persistent upper-level cutoff south of Spain will prevent a wintry outcome for most of the Alps.


@altaski8,I think 20cm is more than a dusting. Come along to Alpe d'Huez and enjoy the lovely snow cover.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Is it really that bad having to ski well groomed pistes in the sunshine in moderately comfortable temperatures? I like fresh snow as much as the next guy, but the negativity seems to have become a little excessive.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Given the early forecast for Zermatt/Cervinia for the weekend of the 31/1/2nd Feb, I would take well groomed piste and sunshine over the snowmageddon that is being suggested.
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Alpinebear wrote:


@altaski8,I think 20cm is more than a dusting. Come along to Alpe d'Huez and enjoy the lovely snow cover.


A few lucky spots got a nice refresher. But most areas got very little and the northern Alps (especially low elevations) are hurting.
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Groomed piste is nice for a few runs in the morning, especially if there is good sunshine. But then it typically gets icy/choppy and comparatively boring. Europe rarely has good moguls, so off-piste (or side-country) is sorely needed to keep things interesting. We need more coverage for good, safe off-piste skiing.
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@J2R, as a generalisation, that's not really how snow behaves. If it's been cold, the pistes should be in good nick, if firm. Off piste, if it hasn't been much snow then cold nights may well mean that it's very pleasant and chalky.

You don't go to Monterosa for powder...
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J2R wrote:
Primarily going there for the off-piste but that looks out of the question now,.


Why would off piste be out of the question? It's not just fluffy light powder, off piste means ski what you find, and hence why decent guides/local knowledge is key to having a good day out. Nice spring snow is almost as good as soft fluffy powder IMHO. A day out touring, away from the crowds on chalky well skied snow is also an enjoyable day out, all are "off piste".
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I'm very familiar with the Monterosa area in fact, having been there maybe 8-9 times now. I'm aware that 'off-piste' doesn't mean 'powder', but what happens without fresh snow is that the snow off-piste starts to turn to 'concrete' after a while, particularly if there's been a lot of wind and plenty of freeze-thaw. 'Nice spring snow' would be, well, nice, but my experience there is that the 'concrete' is more the norm. And unless there has been ample snow, rocks just below the surface are an ever-present danger (I did some damage to my ski bases on one trip).

Curiously enough, the best snow I've ever had there, for both on and off-piste, was in early April one year, when March had been cold and snowy and there was a nice little top-up the night we arrived. Deep snow cover everywhere, but nice sun as well.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I'd get searching for Japan or Canada 2021. Current conditions seem pretty typical to me, certainly in France.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hi folks

Off to the Dolomites on Saturday. I see people talk about N/S/E/W alps etc. Where does Canazei, Selva etc fall into? South East?

From what I can see, a possible light dusting of snow on Friday evening and then still reasonably settled weather after that?


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Mon 20-01-20 17:28; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Well you could be in whistler where it’s +4 and raining with below average cover and Cascade Concrete snow. Enjoy the sun.


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 20-01-20 17:36; edited 1 time in total
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@Fridge03, see page 33 - https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=147999&start=1280.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Woosh wrote:
@horgand, It has been a very mild January in Norway. Northern Norway around Lyngen is doing good, more mixed picture in the south. High up in the southern mountains it is quite good, but the snow level has been high for a long period.

http://www.senorge.no/index.html?p=fag


Hope it gets better since I just extended a trip to Bergen next week to go to Voss... It looks like they have got snow cover so I should get some sliding in. Freezing level looks to be up and down quite a lot with quite a bit of precipitation.

Still, worst case I go sightseeing somewhere I haven't been before.
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@nozawaonsen, thoughts on GFS for middle of next week? Beginning to look fruity for France (so to speak)?
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@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, 12z is a good run. Let’s see where it sits in the ensembles and where ECM goes.

EDIT: has reasonable support including from control. That’s a good sign, but you’d need to see it continue to be repeated to increase confidence. Next test ECM.
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@nozawaonsen, where do you get your ECM charts from? I understand they arent free like GFS
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@Woosh, understand, thanks.@kitenski, more than understand, BBC often says rain at 80% certainty in Liverpool and its bone dry!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The 12z GFS was definitely better for the end of the month period. Shortwave energy dives down the back of the longwave trof and digs everything further south and west than previous runs, with more northerly component to the flow. All quadrants could cash in on that, although N and NW Alps would be favored.

The run does look tenuous, however. The moist, northwesterly flow is transient even on the 12z GFS, and dependent on good timing and orientation of the shortwave swinging through the British Isles at day 8/9. The fast, zonal flow is ready to encroach on the area soon afterwards. This is still way out in fantasyland and we've seen several wintry head fakes in this time period over the past few weeks. The Canadian model is only marginally supportive of something wintry around that time. But it is something to build on for sure.
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ECM also ends on a strong note.



So interesting, but we’ll see.

As for current conditions last two days round Salzburgerland (valley floor 800m or so) have been excellent. Powder amongst the trees yesterday in snowfall, cold sun and still soft powder and great pistes today. Looked like a dream. The base isn’t deep of course, but that doesn’t mean it’s not fun. I’m certainly enjoying myself! Wink
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nozawaonsen wrote:

As for current conditions last two days round Salzburgerland (valley floor 800m or so) have been excellent. Powder amongst the trees yesterday in snowfall, cold sun and still soft powder and great pistes today. Looked like a dream. The base isn’t deep of course, but that doesn’t mean it’s not fun. I’m certainly enjoying myself! Wink

Glad it's good where you are!

Coverage is really thin in north Tyrol and especially the Bavarian pre-Alps. Off-piste is difficult almost everywhere. The exceptions are high elevations north of Innsbruck and near Berchtesgaden, but even those areas are below average.
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Quite astonishing how similar GFS12 is in that same timeframe (+240h)
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Record puke in East Canada.

Over 30 inches in a day.






http://youtube.com/v/4dtMX-NWxIw
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Great images @Whitegold, credit where credits due!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
So.....the question is where to book? Where are the models saying it is most likely to top up the thin bases across the alps?
Fixed to Feb 1/2 term.
These are currently the choices on my short list, but truly cant decide:
1) Serre Che - good base and always good for the unexpected
2) East Austria (Salzburgerland) - good snowmaking and will tend to be cooler to facilitate this
3) North Alps - Avoriaz - High
4) Trois Valleys - High

Anyone care to advise or is it too spiky?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Too early to say from a weather perspective.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, yes thought that would be the case! Whole system looks pretty flat tepid to start of Feb, with the odd top up. I had a blast 10 days ago in Austria so might just go for more of the same!
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@RetroBod, Trois Vallees pretty decent based on a very quick trip out on Fri, back Sunday. Check the https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=3514726#3514726 thread for pics/video.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
Incoming: Western Pyrenees about to get blitzed down to valley level.

We look like having more snow in the French NA Friday/Saturday, if so that will be the 4th Friday in a row that it has snowed around here. Conditions are good above 1000-1400 meters now.



Looks like 1-2 meters on the way.


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Mon 20-01-20 21:43; edited 1 time in total
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@RetroBod, If you haven't booked yet I would wait until about mid next week, then you have full certainty about snow base and weather prediction.
It's not high season yet then, should be easy enough to find decent accommodation
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@kitenski, thanks, I am really tempted by this area. Havent skied there for 30 years.
@Skiwi222, Sadly fixed to school half term so holidays selling fast. I am package fodder for this one as dont need the stress of booking separates!! But if I can hold my nerve that is good advice. Depends where the prices go!
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@kitenski, Love the vid. I must get out more. To cut fresh tracks off the back whereever you were must have been so exhilarating! I am a bit of a scardy cat when it comes to off piste, very capable but Mr Safe....
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
RetroBod wrote:
So.....the question is where to book? Where are the models saying it is most likely to top up the thin bases across the alps?
Fixed to Feb 1/2 term.
These are currently the choices on my short list, but truly cant decide:
1) Serre Che - good base and always good for the unexpected
2) East Austria (Salzburgerland) - good snowmaking and will tend to be cooler to facilitate this
3) North Alps - Avoriaz - High
4) Trois Valleys - High

Anyone care to advise or is it too spiky?


Wait with booking to see what happens the next 72 hours in the eastern Pyrenees.
Forecast for now is a snowfall they have not seen for decades.

Vallter 2000 is going to be hit hardest and expects 3-4 metres (!!!) in the next few days.
Eastern side of Andorra (Eyne, Font Romeu) also an enormous dump.
Then the further west you go, the less they get. But who would complain about "only" 1-2 metres of fresh.
Downside of this amount of snow is that it takes a lot of time till it is all stabilized.

Vallter
http://youtube.com/v/adJ7DDV6YEs
Cambre d'Aze
http://youtube.com/v/6TGRbMGhA4g
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@RetroBod, Sorry, I thought you meant Feb 1st (overlooked the 'term' phrase) Embarassed

In that case you are in high season, wouldn't wait too long anymore then.

From weather perspective indeed too early to call, so I would go where the base is already good and you can go high (3Vallées would be my favourite from your list)
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Ptspeak wrote:
Well you could be in whistler where it’s +4 and raining with below average cover and Cascade Concrete snow. Enjoy the sun.


Yes, but by Tuesday it will get colder and Whistler could see 100cm of snow by Friday! wink
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Latest forecast for the Canigou (famous mountain, East of Perpignan) is for 550 cm of new snow in the next week.
https://meteoexploration.com/forecasts/Canigou/?lang=fr
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