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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I've only got 88mm, but it's how you use it that matters
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Hahaha,

I guess I'll have to figure it out ...

Seriously, at my "home mountain" 104mm is a "daily driver" ... !?

I always manage to overestimate snow conditions when heading east ... and end up renting skinny Stockli's

But the "snow event" hitting the Alps this weekend seems like "dusting" not much more ... oh well, next weekend looks promising though Wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, Yes I have seen the forecasts! A few cm on the cars outside my window. A mini nordstau in the offing for the for the next 24 hours or so. @Cheapski, I guess there will be some powder in the next day or two but then back to sunshine and piste skiing.
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Damn wind, up the hill all the snow on the trees blown off and top ridges look as if it hasn't snowed Mad

We're going searching out unpisted pistes to rip the 10cms or so Laughing
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Cheapski,

104 mm is never too wide Smile
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@Cheapski,

104 mm is never too wide Smile
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Nice conditions this am

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@davidof, doesn't look like you had the wind judging by those trees?

OH in the steep trees and varied snow-pack



Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Sat 18-01-20 14:56; edited 1 time in total
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Buzzi’s recovery. Madness. Very fine weather in Wengen.
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Newfoundland doing snow properly...

https://twitter.com/thinkerdunord/status/1218415279677628416?s=21

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Just about right for @twoodar anyhow, Wink, as she/ he has expressed a fondness for 9cm on the bird table!? Smile)))

Seriously, 104mm strikes me as perfect for your first couple of days anyway.
After that I might be renting what @UANN recommended above.

I'm expecting to be skiing pistes and skinning for skinning"s sake in Val next week, (from 25th) ,though if the snow gods surprise us otherwise I'll be very grateful, as alway.......
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Weathercam wrote:
@davidof, doesn't look like you had the wind judging by those trees?


No, no wind at all, small cold north wind this pm.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@horgand, my Julian clary impression after a few Embarassed Apologies, male, 3 adult daughters with nothing to ‘come out’
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
At least latest GFS has turned a little cooler at the end of the month, both east (Obertauern), and West (Zermatt) snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Snowing steadily down to The Valley floor in Ennstal this morning, church bells ringing out beyond the clouds somewhere.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Drove from South Germany to Tirol yesterday. Judging from the car, Arlberg seems to have had more snow that rest of the region. That said, fun afternoon snowboarding in Serfaus. I reckon about 20cm of powder at 2300-2400m and its been snowing moderately on and off since 4pm yesterday.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Lovely powder snow to play in today.

Meanwhile how’s the AO? Hmmm.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Apologies for the ignorance, but I believe we are looking for a negative position for Europe for low pressure and the chance of snow?
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@twoodwar, it’s really indicative of the strength of the polar vortex. This is tending to keep the cold air bottled up. It doesn’t necessarily follow that if it weakens it will bring snow, but a weakened jet would be more likely to push south and therefore cold air would also flow south. Depending on how the jet then set up it could bring snow to either the north or south of the Alps. In broad terms it is likely to weaken from its current very strong position over next few weeks.
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Snow in Munich this morning. Was very pretty.
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There's a potential snowmageddon event brewing in the eastern Pyrenees (a part of the range that's far more famous for its sunshine than its snow)... the most optimistic forecast is giving up to 3 metres during the 56-hour period between Monday night and Wednesday night in the easternmost Pyrenean ski area! From Andorra westwards it'll be far less noteworthy, however.

Let's see what the same forecast says this time tomorrow...


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sun 19-01-20 16:29; edited 1 time in total
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@nozawaonsen, thanks, another term I have at least a little understanding of.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
BA flight to Innsbruck cancelled yesterday because of snow. Only arrived now.
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I wasn't particularly optimistic for this storm, but pleasantly surprised by conditions at Seefeld today!

My GF gets some piste-side treats:



Next few days should be pretty nice for anyone skiing in Tyrol.
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Have the original FI forecasts which suggested snow for next weekend fizzled out or is there still a chance of something?
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@Garioch, without wanting to be too negative my reading of the tea leaves is not that positive for a significant change in the current sunny weather in the near future. I am sure others might disagree but to me the various forecasts both shorter and longer term all point to more of what we have now.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
munich_irish wrote:
@Garioch, without wanting to be too negative my reading of the tea leaves is not that positive for a significant change in the current sunny weather in the near future. I am sure others might disagree but to me the various forecasts both shorter and longer term all point to more of what we have now.


Thanks for the reply. I had seen a few longer range forecasts that suggested something similar to this weekends snow cropping up again but it seems to have gone quiet. Sunshine would do just fine though.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
munich_irish wrote:
... without wanting to be too negative my reading of the tea leaves is not that positive...




Wow... You really are determined to be downbeat.

For what it’s worth snowfall over this weekend in Salzburgerland has been good and there was lots of fun fresh powder to play in first thing. The suns coming out tomorrow. Elsewhere from some of the photos it looks like terrific skiing conditions in parts of France.

Around 28/29 January there is a growing signal in the ensembles for something more unsettled arriving and potentially further cold weather after a week of often fine and sunny weather. Given that’s 10 days away it could certainly change, but at this stage all to play for.

Chamonix



The Arlberg

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Canada's the place to be. I think some of them are going to be late for work

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-51168462/canada-snowstorms-state-of-emergency-declared
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, I know but I dont see anything to persuade me otherwise (though of course I hope I am wrong). I dont see the GFS data as giving any strong suggestions of a change in the weather pattern and at least some weather pros agree eg https://www.wetteronline.de/14-tage-wetter (their 14 day prognosis for the Arlberg is currently unbroken mild sunny winter weather, ZAMG seem to agree though I cant see a 14 day forecast there).

Also the folks at Severe Weather Europe have just done a summary of what a number of models are suggesting for February and the early part of the spring https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-analysis-early-forecast-spring-fa/ the relevant conclusion being There seems to be a general consensus about above-normal warmth in spring over Europe, with neutral to drier conditions, more likely in the southern parts. Every year, spring cold air intrusions are always likely into continental Europe, but such forecasts as we see above, do reduce the chance of prolonged cold air outbreaks, as the general circulation pattern is not supportive. During pattern re-adjustments, there are possible windows that colder air can move over the continent, but longer colder episodes of frost are not expected for now.

None of this is welcome from an alpine skiing perspective.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I do not not about the weather but the ski conditions are great in Arlberg
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The weather forecast that the SCGB uses, is showing a change start of next week. Fingers crossed.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Freezing in Liverpool this morning, good car scraping weather
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The SCGB uses snow forecast, and I suspect that (potential) break in the weather is what Noza is highlighting more scientifically on his charts.

MunichI 's thesis still holds though, the Alps have had a dry January, which apparently matched medium/ long range forecasts, so I find it quite plausible that the Alps are likely to get a relatively dry spring, ir seems anywhere high and northern are more likely to get snow.

On wider patterns I wonder how Norway is doing, and is there much more snow up North, closer to the polar vortex!?
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Gfs is still showing lowered temps and precipitation in Austria at least from the beginning of Feb
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@horgand, It has been a very mild January in Norway. Northern Norway around Lyngen is doing good, more mixed picture in the south. High up in the southern mountains it is quite good, but the snow level has been high for a long period.

http://www.senorge.no/index.html?p=fag
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This AO and NAO positive setup that we have seen since the Christmas week is really stobborn. Forecast today again suggest a positive AO and NAO situation in the long run. The Ec operational has the jet stream going more south in the end of the 10 days, something that might give some precipitation, most likely most in Northern and possible western part. However, the pattern we have seen since the end of January might unfortunately continue deep into February, even with some snowfall hits now and then.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Yes things look pretty bleak along the northern Alps for snow lovers. Despite this past weekend's dusting, the cover is very thin, especially at low elevations. Temperatures are expected to be above normal all week with no guidance showing much more than a hint of something to get excited about all the way out to the long-range.

The longwave pattern actually did change somewhat this past weekend, which had been advertised by the models almost all the way back to the turn of the year. Unfortunately the realization of that pattern change with a large, persistent upper-level cutoff south of Spain will prevent a wintry outcome for most of the Alps.
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@Woosh, @altaski8, what is GFS picking up then going into Feb? One assumes they are trying their best. Whats the deal?
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As an Economist by degree, I'm tempted to roll out a few Economist jokes and apply them to Climatologists. I thought Economics had the 'dismal science' tag.
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