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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@südtirolistdeutsch, it is all very much in line with the various long term forecasts from October eg https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2019-2020-early-look-september-forecast-theory-fa/ . Still time for things to change and fingers crossed for a cold snowy spring!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I’m taking on board the mantra that is constantly repeated - there is no accuracy in long term forecasts - so you can stick your ‘troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling‘ up your bum, as gently as you can.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Fifespud, +1. And I taught Global Meteorology for some years so perhaps my opinion is somewhat qualified! There are some on this thread who are obviously very knowledgeable and whose input is very much appreciated. Then there are others!
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Fifespud wrote:
I’m taking on board the mantra that is constantly repeated - there is no accuracy in long term forecasts - so you can stick your ‘troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling‘ up your bum, as gently as you can.


My rule is wysiwyg. Head out to Les Coches on Friday so i am happy to have a little fresh to ski on
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
denfinella wrote:
In the absence of @nozawaonsen's expertise, here's the situation as I understand it for this weekend's snowfall and beyond. Essentially the summary I gave on p. 35 of this thread still sounds about right, but it also looks like northern Austria could also do well as the cold front gets slowed down by high pressure east of the Alps. Going somewhat out on a limb, I would currently hazard a guess at a moderate snowfall (possibly 20-40cm quite widely) for most of France, most of Switzerland away from the far south, and most of Austria away from the far south. Could be more, could be less. Less snow on the south side of the Alpine ridge (basically Italy), and the retour d'est scenario currently looks less likely. Generally cold enough for snow at all levels, except at the start of the storm.

Next week pressure quickly rises. Temperatures also lift after a cold start to the week.

Towards next weekend the latest GFS runs are beginning to look interesting. After a 12Z hinting at cold and snow from the 24th, the 18Z run is even colder and snowier for the N (particularly NW) Alps. The operational run is especially cold, which will lead to some misplaced Snowforecast.com excitement for those with access to the full 12 day detail. However, there's fairly good agreement on cold and snow (just less extreme) from the other ensemble members too. Let's see if it crops up tomorrow as well.

@horgand, I think you have reason to be cautiously optimistic, especially in comparison to the rest of this month so far. And yes, Val d'Isere is in the northern Alps - though in fact due to its position near the Italian border it can do well from storms from both the NW and SE.


Thanks @"denfinella, I'll go with that so. tbh I'm disappointed with myself, that we did not hold off until weather forecasts were a little more clear i.e. in about 4 days time before settling on a specific resort in the Alps. But look we've done what we've done now. As you say, we just may get lucky with some late snow at Val from the 25th, in a dryish season, but as Austrian Alps are due to get a decent top up this weekend and then will also be in line for anything that may come in next weekend that was our best option imho. I must be slipping up in my middle age Smile)))

Looks like i may have to keep the fat boys on ice for this trip altogether, and either rent a pair of all mountain or even a natty pair of pure carving skis- jeez I haven't been on a pair of those horrible ice skates for over 15 years now .....oh the shame of it, the shame of it Laughing Embarassed Laughing

p.s. dog sledding may be an option¬¬
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Some fascinating 12z FI Action on ECM and GFS tonight.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Do tell.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen, never mind FI stuff if the latest GFS forecasts are correct it might be a heavier fall this weekend than expected (@horgand, more in Val d'Isere than St Anton)
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@ Munich Irish Smile be kind ye snow gods, be kind!!
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@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, both 12z GFS op and control going for cold and snowy FI (and even in FI when the op and control start heading in the same direction it’s interesting to note). 12z ECM ended with some powerful storms pushing across the Atlantic too. 18z GFS also goes for further stormy weather though in that run pushes everything east. Austria would see cold and snow, less so further west. That said it’s all quite some way out, but some straws in the wind suggesting January may go out in a more unsettled manner than we saw in the first half of the month.
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Rain in Scotland next week.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Whitegold wrote:
Rain in Scotland next week.
I bet they celebrated Christmas on 25 December too ... give it a rest man
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@horgand, nothing at all wrong with a nice sharp pair of FIS SLs if you can get hold of a pair Twisted Evil
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
t4tomo wrote:
Hmmm, I think I've over invested in Italy. I'm off to Sestriere in a week for a lads weekend and then to Aosta valley over feb half term on a dads and daughters week. I t started off very promising in Nov and Dec, but I think i'm correct in saying no snow since and only a light dusting forecast for this weekend, and light (and snow storms) on the horizon?


I'm in Bardonecchia and the pistes are in great nick. Especially higher up.

It's supposed to snow later on today, but the sun is still out as of now. The forecast suggests 7-10cm which should freshen it up.

Carving skis with good edges the order of the day.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
esaw1 wrote:
@südtirolistdeutsch, Do you get chips with that?

huh?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Fifespud wrote:
I’m taking on board the mantra that is constantly repeated - there is no accuracy in long term forecasts - so you can stick your ‘troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling‘ up your bum, as gently as you can.


"I am a Visiting Scientist at MIT’s Parsons Lab, which is part of the Civil and Environmental engineering department, but my main position is Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER [Atmospheric and Environmental Research]. I am currently working on the impacts of snow cover and sea ice variability on winter climate. I am also interested in accelerated Arctic warming and its influence on extreme mid-latitude weather and applying novel statistical techniques to subseasonal to seasonal prediction. I am also interested in decadal temperature trends and explaining those trends with large scale climate models. I received my Ph.D. from Columbia University and was also a post-doc at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies."

http://www.judahcohen.org/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
munich_irish wrote:
@südtirolistdeutsch, it is all very much in line with the various long term forecasts from October eg https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2019-2020-early-look-september-forecast-theory-fa/ . Still time for things to change and fingers crossed for a cold snowy spring!


Interesting, thanks
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Has latest GFS taken away all my late month snow in Obertauern, or am I misreading things?
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@twoodwar, this would bring cold and snow for Austria.



Of course it’s in FI and for now high pressure is never far from the output at present.

In meantime I’m looking forward to some fresh snow tomorrow followed by some sunshine to enjoy it in at the start of the week.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Cheers Noza snowHead
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südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
Fifespud wrote:
I’m taking on board the mantra that is constantly repeated - there is no accuracy in long term forecasts - so you can stick your ‘troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling‘ up your bum, as gently as you can.


"I am a Visiting Scientist at MIT’s Parsons Lab, which is part of the Civil and Environmental engineering department, but my main position is Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER [Atmospheric and Environmental Research]. I am currently working on the impacts of snow cover and sea ice variability on winter climate. I am also interested in accelerated Arctic warming and its influence on extreme mid-latitude weather and applying novel statistical techniques to subseasonal to seasonal prediction. I am also interested in decadal temperature trends and explaining those trends with large scale climate models. I received my Ph.D. from Columbia University and was also a post-doc at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies."

http://www.judahcohen.org/


I was only joshing - sorry
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, but I'm not going to Austria, that's not fair.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Well it’s been raining in Geneva for about an hour ...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
The high pressure must have broken all the webcams.
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And here in the last hour for the first time this year we have lost the blue sky and I hear that it's starting to snow at 1,850m !

And our webcam (link below) is working
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
It's totally snowing! (In the bit I care about)

https://lesmenuires.com/en/webcam-mont-de-la-chambre
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Live webcam in La Plagne have been very encouraging for the last couple of hours. Looks like a nice refresher for next week
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Meanwhile across the pond; they are calling it a juggernaut storm. Sounds bad to me. wink

https://news.yahoo.com/northeast-next-stop-juggernaut-storm-161125474.html
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Heavy snow in Megeve and settling on the road down to le Flumet (900 meters) with snow down to the Pont de Flon at 750 meters. Quite a few people struggling with snowchains.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Very wet snow coming back from weekly shop in Briancon then freezing and dreaded black ice and people putting chains on the flat !
I didn't make it up my 17% hill with winter tyres 4x4 diff-lock engaged and traction off, was great fun (not) sliding back down.

Think my tyres are shite!

All of 4cms so far and radar showing another 3-4hrs so 10cm looks likely, just about worth doing first lifts as hopefully more up the hill.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
davidof wrote:
Heavy snow in Megeve and settling on the road down to le Flumet (900 meters) with snow down to the Pont de Flon at 750 meters. Quite a few people struggling with snowchains.



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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Just drove from La Plagne to Chamonix, already 1 accident on the road as we left at 16.30 and was coming down hard. Glad we chose to stick with the motorway rather than chance the Ugine bypass!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snowing nicely here in Wengen at 1274 metres. It's the last thing they need for the downhill tomorrow though.
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@telford_mike, oh lordy of course (see what I did there?). No - not ideal. Someone will be up early!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Just measured bird table and 9cms at 1400 still lightly falling
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Whitegold wrote:
davidof wrote:
Heavy snow in Megeve and settling on the road down to le Flumet (900 meters) with snow down to the Pont de Flon at 750 meters. Quite a few people struggling with snowchains.





Looks wonderful.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Things must be bad if folk are reduced to posting images of a few snowflakes in an alpine winter Sad . No snowflakes to be seen currently in Pettneu but are due to appear sometime after midnight
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@munich_irish, goodness you are certainly doing your best to be miserable this season. Plenty of fun to be had! Wink
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@Weathercam, ‘I’ll take 9cms on the bird table any day. ( can I say that?)
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Will my train be cancelled ...!?

Just joking, I am on my way to Arlberg ...

Not much expected but chalet is fine so ...

BTW. I am coming with 104mm

Too much ?
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