The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

The only good thing you can say about the model outlook is that it's likely to change as normal, at least beyond next 6-7 days. Looking thru ECM ensembles it's a stalemate with low pressure west of UK, and highs thru europe and scandinavia, all the way out to +360.

Straws to clutch:
The ex-tropical low heading NE over weekend often leads to big model adjustments
Low pressure anomalies over Iberia could open the way for toughs to disrupt further into France / med
Good odds for some northern blocking, just need to see it align further north, and more towards Greenland
The whole pattern gradually corrects east....seen it before, a few hundred miles each run would do
Tiny signs of amplification in the atlantic (high pressure ridge)

Slight improvement already in the 6z just coming out

A snowHead

There has been a significant general snowfall in October in the Alps - I would say that is not usually the case. The forecast is mild but as is oft said much beyond about 10 days is FI. Pretty sure we are better off at this stage than last year and look what happened,. As with every year it could go many ways but why worry! It does not affect the weather. Why pre-judge at this stage what may happen
Most resorts do not open until mid-Dec so plenty of time yet. There will be high skiing in those results that open early.
My reading of the latest charts. published here, is mild but not super-mild - so not too bad

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

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Good to see all the usual suspects on here again this year. snowHead

My last climbing trip of the year to North Wales was cancelled due to snow - gotta be a good sign shirley?

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stop calling us Shirley (apologies to 'Airplane')

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Colorado got 1-2ft of freshy so far this week.

Three resorts already open.

Wolf Creek, A-Basin, and Loveland.

Another 10-15 opening in the next 2-3 weeks, like Keystone, Breckenridge, etc.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Three American resorts are open but apparently each have less than 2kms of skiing.
https://www.skiresort.info/snow-reports/sorted/open-slopes/

After all it is free

@dsoutar, and yet people in the UK travel a couple of hours to ski in a fridge which has even shorter runs.

GFS appears to be predicting another cold snap with lots of snow in 5-7 days at Sierra Nevada. 1000 miles further south than the Alps and it looks like it might be one of those years where it has a better pre/early season!

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@leggyblonde, agreed but the difference is that in a month's time they will have "proper" levels of snow and be worth visiting whereas the majority of the UK unfortunately doesn't share that topography / climate and hence beggars can't be choosers

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Ah so Whitegold has some allegiance to Whistler etc across the pond hence his derogatory Alps bashing and continued sales pitch for skiing in Retardistan.

snow reports

Looking very wet again across N Italy after the torrential rain earlier in the week that saw the worst flooding in a decade in Venice.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46029302

Bringing snow to higher elevations, over 2500m in the Dolomites.

GFS still suggesting plenty of snowfall at altitude on the Swiss Italian border.

You know it makes sense.

Haut Valais and Ticino has been absolutely plastered!!!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BppDMAkHePS/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1qs8w5l32ljhx

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Tignes.

A snowHead

this slightly negative AO/ NAO period is matching the jet theory....although all areas have seen some snow, you've really got to get south of the ridge....am looking at Cervinia, only 2.5 hrs drive from Geneva.

General model outlook for alps continues to be very uninspiring. Computers say no cold, no lows, no snow (mid term, north).....but they are apparently worse at predicting stuff in -AO environment

A snowHead

Great snow on Hintertux today. One or two very icy patches but these are few and far between. Quite windy and lots of people (thanks to Feier and Fenstertag), but good to be back on skis.

Föhn on the way.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Also a lot more snow on the way for the Swiss Italian border too. GFS‘s earlier forecast for snow next week holding up.

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@nozawaonsen, great to get the first few turns in.....there's always a little doubt in my mind after 6 month break whether I am still as brilliant as I imagined Laughing

00z are moving the right way (east), especially UKMO, GEM, GFS....ECM still reluctant to push in

Here's the pick

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

SLF outlook for Switzerland.

“Weather forecast through Monday, 05.11.2018

Along the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards therefrom, skies will be heavily overcast and precipitation is anticipated. North of the Main Alpine Ridge it will be rather sunny, however cloud cover is expected near to the Main Alpine Ridge itself.

Fresh snow

The snowfall level will be between 2100 and 2400 m. The following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated:

Upper Valais sector of the Main Alpine Ridge on the Italian border, northern and western Ticino, Bernina region: 15 to 30 cm;

regions bordering to the north, remaining sectors of the Main Alpine Ridge, remaining parts of Engadine: only a few centimetres;

elsewhere: dry.

Temperature

The zero-degree level at midday in northern regions will be approximately 3000 m, in southern regions approximately 2500 m.

Wind

Winds will be southerly,
blowing at moderate strength on the southern flank of the Alps, in the other regions at strong to storm strength at high altitude;
foehn wind is expected to arise in the Alpine valleys.

Outlook through Wednesday, 07.11.2018

Tuesday

Along the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards therefrom, skies are expected to be heavily overcast. Between the Monte Rosa region and western Ticino, heavy precipitation is anticipated, in the other regions only very little. In the northern regions it will be partly sunny. In the Alps a strong to storm-strength southerly wind will be blowing, and foehn wind in the Alpine valleys. The avalanche danger is expected to continue to increase at high altitudes in the major areas of precipitation. On Tuesday, danger level 4 (high) may well be reached during the course of the day from region to region, in the Upper Valais sector of the Main Alpine Ridge more than anywhere else. In the other regions of Switzerland, danger levels are not expected to change significantly.

Wednesday

In the southern regions, the precipitation is expected to persist until Wednesday morning, subsequently it will become dry. The snowfall level will descend to 1600 to 2000 m. In the northern regions it will be partly sunny to start with, subsequently skies will become overcast from the west. The phase of foehn wind will come to an end. The avalanche danger is expected to diminish during the course of the day in the major areas of precipitation; in the other regions of Switzerland, danger levels are not expected to change significantly”

After all it is free

Looks like the Italian resorts around Alagna (south of Zermatt) got 150-250cm of snowfall in the dump last week.

Northern Portugal also got a good puke. Tiny Serra da Estrela, at 1800-2000m, is open (very) early.

@Whitegold, Honestly, that looks the most boring ski destination ever!

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I'd take a mellow hill covered in fresh snow over a huge lift served area of icy runs any day.....

Just to illustrate the spread of options for mid Nov, compare today's 00z GFS at day 10 to it's 06z update just out:

The latter would drop the FL from about 3000 to 1500, with much more widespread precipitation.

The AO index also pointing at the huge uncertainty though.

Not much value in looking beyond 6-7 days unless ECM adds it's support, but odds are slowly building for another cold spell as the atlantic tries to flatten the semi permanent high block over eastern europe / scandi

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snow reports

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

This is an interesting website for looking at actual lying snow in the last few years. Most go the cameras go back at least 2-3 years and some as much as 6. Admittedly it is mainly the Eastern end of the Alps and some of them are urban but looking at some of the 5th of November shots from previous winters that turned out just fine certainly reassures. Yes, the 6th of November looked a lot different last year but that melted from everywhere but the tops and it was mid month before it was back and pretty much the beginning of December before it was permanent on all slopes.

I'll take that right now?

https://www.foto-webcam.eu

A snowHead

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Cool webcam from the top of Germany's highest mountain at nearly 10k feet.

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@Whitegold, nice view.

This is from Matt Hugo on Twitter focussing on UK, but has broader relevance.

“Nov update of the EC Seasonal maintains the consistent risk of Northern blocking patterns through the winter. Perhaps a bias for this to be more significant as the winter passes by but even Dec shows some potential interest. A mild, wet and windy, zonal winter is, IMO, unlikely.”

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@Whitegold, Thats a new one, its a real cracker. I'm presuming thats München in the distance.

There is also this new one of Samerberg where our dear late friend Sue lived.

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Plenty of fairly wild temperatures around mid November.

Parts of Canada 16C above average, parts of US 16C below average.

After all it is free

It's freakishly warm here right now and the wiggly lines look like this is going to continue for a couple of weeks. T-shirt weather, no point buying a lift pass just yet.

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@queenie pretty please, Yup. Although I've got my pass, I think there are better ideas than heading up the hill in this horrendous föhn. I blinked and put the heading on last week. Regretting it now Shocked

Help!!

The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

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