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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Whitegold, Hurtling? How did you work that one out?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Arctic getting pounded by the European heatwave this month.

Finland saw an insane 33c / 91f in the southern part of the Arctic Circle this week.

Sweden has extensive wildfires in its Arctic region.

Greenland glaciers are breaking up bad.

Another brootal year of global melting in the Northern Hemisphere.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/heat-wave-in-north-europe-kevo-finland-at-70n-well-inside-the-arctic-circle-hits-31-6-c-by-14h-local/

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Drammeister wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Was up on the Dachstein glacier (hiking not skiing) at weekend. Looked like plenty of snow for start of July.



Tangent: What makes the most difference to a glacier, snowy winter, or a cool summer?
I instinctively feel this winter will have been good for glacier depths, but is the key factor the snow loss over the summer?


Here’s a good article on this question from ZAMG.

https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/gletscher-groesste-schneemenge-im-winter-seit-20-jahren-aber-fuer-massenbilanz-sommer-entscheidend

Winter this year produced 25% more snow mass than average on the Hohe Tauern glaciers. That’s the highest in 20 years.

However, conditions through summer are more important for the overall glacier snow balance. Periods of cold in summer which bring snow are crucial as a layer of fresh white snow can reflect almost 100% of the suns rays and protect the glacier for a week before melting. Conversely strong sun can on a darker glacier can lead to up to half a metre being lost in a week.

In the Arctic the situation is reversed. The shorter summer and low angle of the sun means it is the amount of snowfall in winter that is crucial hence the anticipation that the Freya Glacier in Greenland will actually see an increase this year (against the long term trend).
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@nozawaonsen, perfect! I’ll take that as a good sign wink wink
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A good little ENSO round up with El Niño still looking likely.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2018-enso-update-dog-days

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Snowploughs out in the Jura yesterday


http://youtube.com/v/KJiND1tyykQ
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Does El Niño have a market effect on the weather/snow for Japan?
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@rogg, ENSO is only a marginal indicator and of course what the weather is going to be like when you are there is impossible to gauge from a seasonal perspective. However, El Niño does tend to mean the season as a whole in Japan is a little more likely to be milder and drier than normal. That said normal in Japan is extremely large amounts of fresh powder!
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Thanks, I know it's only a general indicator, but having been to Canada in an El Nino (there the effects are apparently more defined) I just wondered how (if at all) it affected Japan. I was supposed to be there last January but injury forced cancellation. Here's hoping there's as much snow this year as the season just gone......
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@rogg, El Niño tends to make it a bit milder and drier. La Niña tends to make it colder, last year brought the coldest winter for 32 years in western Japan.

That said you can’t blame it all on El Niño...

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/no-you-can’t-blame-it-all-el-niño
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Handy Turnip wrote:
@nozawaonsen, perfect! I’ll take that as a good sign wink wink


or a bad sign "conditions through summer are more important for the overall glacier snow balance"

It has been very hot and dry since April.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@davidof, I think @Handy Turnip, was referring to a post on the previous page.
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Quick look back over last 30 days.

Bournemouth

+2.82C, -97.5% precipitation

Bourg St Maurice

+2.94C, -55% precipitation

Salzburg Airport

+0.38C, +35% precipitation

So for the last 30 days at least there has been quite an east west difference.

I’ve seen elsewhere people musing in what a prolonged heatwave in summer means for snow in the Alps the following winter. The short answer is not a huge amount. There is simply too much which can shift and change between now and then for there to be a particularly strong link.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
davidof wrote:
Snowploughs out in the Jura yesterday


http://youtube.com/v/KJiND1tyykQ


A huge ~20cm Summer hailstorm. Pretty rare for Europe.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
There's no way Europe and Scandinavia's glaciers will be able to withstand weeks and weeks of these sustained high temps.

It is gonna be another Summer of big glacier loss across the Northern Hemisphere...

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 Poster: A snowHead
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Its really not as bad as you are making out whitegold, just more over the top nonsense as per. Perhaps you should work for the daily express as a headline writer

http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018072306&fh=6

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Whitegold, this does get a bit tiresome season after season.

There are of course plenty of legitimate concerns about climate change, but you repeatedly post in a way that seems calculated to wind people up, claiming the world is melting, the apocalypse is nigh, etc, etc. It’s hard not to conclude that you are simply doing this to stir up an argument.

Could you not please.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen,
Quote:

Could you not please.

Don't hold your breath. Laughing
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I saw this on Jim Steenburgh’s blog and have half inched it.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/us-warmest-day-year-mapjpg

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/file/contiguous-us-climatological-coldest-day-year-mapjpg

Obviously this is just the average. It varies a lot year to year.
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Finnish Meteorological Institute. http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/seasons-in-finland

"The highest summer temperatures in the Finnish interior are from 32°C to 35°C. Near the sea and over the maritime islands, temperatures over 30°C are extremely rare; the highest temperature ever recorded in Helsinki is 31.6°C. The highest temperature ever recorded was on July 29th, 2010, when 35°C was exceeded in several places (the maximum being 37.2°C in Joensuu). Heat waves, with a maximum daily temperature exceeding 25°C, occur on an average of 10 to 15 days per summer inland in southern and central Finland, and 5 to 10 days in northern Finland and on the coast. In the course of the summer, thunderstorms occur on 8 to 14 days in the interior and 4 to 8 days in coastal areas and northern Lapland."
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got chilly enough last Friday to put the fire on here Laughing Max yesterday only 23C. Almost 10C hotter in the south Shocked
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Some commentary on the signs for a very -AO/NAO cropping up in some of the LRMs at present. In summary whilst it’s interesting, treat with caution.

https://twitter.com/drahbutler/status/1021506640984588289?s=21
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@nozawaonsen, I have no idea what it means Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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@scotspikey, several long range forecasting models are suggesting that there may be very strong high pressure blocking around Greenland next winter.

If this happened you could see the jet stream being pushed a lot further south. This could allow polar air to pour down over Northern Europe making it a lot colder than normal. Possibly more snowfall on the southern side of the Alps as the jet sits further south.

This is broadly what you might expect during La Niña.

However, also potential that this modelling is “over confident.” That the signal has become too dominant.

And in any case lots of could be and possibly...

So for now stand by...
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scotspikey wrote:
@nozawaonsen, I have no idea what it means Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing


another 2017/18 season Razz
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@scotspikey, several long range forecasting models are suggesting that there may be very strong high pressure blocking around Greenland next winter.

If this happened you could see the jet stream being pushed a lot further south. This could allow polar air to pour down over Northern Europe making it a lot colder than normal. Possibly more snowfall on the southern side of the Alps as the jet sits further south.

This is broadly what you might expect during La Niña.

However, also potential that this modelling is “over confident.” That the signal has become too dominant.

And in any case lots of could be and possibly...

So for now stand by...

Isn't that what happens during a -NAO/-AO which correlates to an El Niño? Or is there new information about this?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Stelvio looking a bit boney already



but Les 2 Alpes and Tignes are ok considering the weather.


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 25-07-18 14:28; edited 1 time in total
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@Jellybeans1000, did you read the linked article?

“... the majority of member correlations are stronger than observed, consistent with too high predictability in the model, or overconfidence.”
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, Yes.
I was saying that the weather environment you said above correlated to Nino, not Nina.
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@Jellybeans1000, yep! Your right, typed in haste.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Some (but not all) forecasts suggesting parts of the UK, Scandinavia and Netherlands could hit a record ~40c in early August.

More glacier melt for the Alps on the way.
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Whitegold wrote:
Some (but not all) forecasts suggesting parts of the UK, Scandinavia and Netherlands could hit a record ~40c in early August.

More glacier melt for the Alps on the way.


I'd seen that too but more like 38C
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After having frozen to death skiing in Banff (Sunshine Village and Lake Louis) during December 2017 (Temps as low as -43C with wind chill), I am looking forward to returning to my beloved Austria for a great ski trip in February. Here's to hoping the snow and weather gods look kindly upon us all.
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This photo is from Val Thorens in the middle of July (apparently) of cross country skier Dominika Bielecka. It means someone went up there and bashed trails, I wonder if that is usual in the summer? Anyone know the spot? There doesn't seem to be much snow now on the webcams.

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@davidof, don’t know about Val d’Isere but there were certainly piste bashers working on the Dachstein a few weeks back.

@Whitegold, the likelihood of temperatures of 40C in the UK or the Netherlands is pretty low. Looking at the output for early August there is a wide spread of about 15C. Obviously that will become clearer as get closer. Currently in Austria sudden violent downpours are more of a worry.
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Up on the Matterhorn.

https://www.facebook.com/fisalpine/videos/10160526153635702/
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@nozawaonsen, interesting maps. I'm right in the middle of Tennessee, so it's particularly interesting to me to see the wide divergence on the hottest day here. There's very little geographic difference as you go from the central to the west, so I would have expected it to be very similar, but there is distinct line there.
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Some forecasts for tomorrow in the UK have temperatures reaching 37C. That would be a new July record beating the 36.7C set at Heathrow on 01 July 2015.

That said there is some scepticism about this including Tomasz Schafernaker who has said he’ll strip to his pants if it reaches 37C (though arguably that could just be a reaction to the hot weather).
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@davidof, could be the Roseal chair coming out of Orelle. Not many of the lifts have a big cuboid building like that.
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Well not that surprisingly the UK did not break the July temperature record yesterday.

Meanwhile it is interesting to note what a wide range of rainfall there has been from one end to the other of the Alps in the last 30 days.

Vienna has had 5 times as much rainfall as normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn11036_30.gif

Geneva half of normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn06700_30.gif
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