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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Alpe d'Huez this am

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Wow! That's a nice start to the season
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
FrediKanoute wrote:
Wow! That's a nice start to the season


It'll be gone as quick as it came, not really a season starter yet!
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FrediKanoute wrote:
Wow! That's a nice start to the season


That is only to tease us snowHead
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Dusting of snow on top of the Cairngorms this morning! Briefly!!
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Someone scoring some pow this AM somewhere in Europe


http://youtube.com/v/eN6bVODWz_o

note there was already snow here a few days ago, so a bit of base.
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and there's more

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All I scored were goats up at Ranfoilly this morning (not to be taken literally Blush )....there was a few cm to about 1700 that melted as I hiked up. Looked better towards MB massif.



Current outlook is typical autumn blandness, low pressure in atlantic and high pressure over northern europe / scandi again. Can only get better.
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Met Office Contingency Planners suggesting increased potential for +NAO during October to December.

If that were to be the case it raises probability of wetter than average conditions over northern Alps and milder than average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ond-v1.pdf
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Stubaier glacier opening this weekend.

https://www.facebook.com/schifahren.stubaiergletscher/videos/2088782368104706/
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Met Office Contingency Planners suggesting increased potential for +NAO during October to December.

If that were to be the case it raises probability of wetter than average conditions over northern Alps and milder than average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ond-v1.pdf


I’m headed to go skiing somewhere (anywhere, just haven’t decided where yet) in the Alps this mid December. Does this mean I’m likely to only find lots of rain?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@südtirolistdeutsch, no.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Stubaier glacier opening this weekend.

https://www.facebook.com/schifahren.stubaiergletscher/videos/2088782368104706/


Good spot.

Their new 3-cable tram looks fancy.

https://www.stubaier-gletscher.com/en/ski-area/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The exceptionally dry summer and start of autumn across Europe may be a cause of concern for skiers if it means a shortage of water for snow making Sad
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Peter S wrote:
The exceptionally dry summer and start of autumn across Europe may be a cause of concern for skiers if it means a shortage of water for snow making Sad


Yes, France is looking especially bad.

Tignes has delayed its glacier opening due to lack of snow.

L2A has no glacier lakes to fuel its snowguns up-top.
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The snow has largely melted below 3000 meters but I saw things were looking up on the Dachstein and Stelvio glaciers but not enough to open at Tignes yet.


Happy skier on the Dachstein, yesterday

Another weather system hitting the French alps on Sunday.
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Cool and cloudy here today. Noticed that GFS and WRF got the position of todays French low system wrong by about 300 miles. Their charts at t+48 had the low much closer to Geneva than all the other models, so was always likely to correct further south west. WRF Avoriaz went from showing 30cm down to 1800m just 2 days ago, to nothing today at 3000m. So far ECM, UKMO, ICON have been the most reliable at 0-4 days.

Amazing tightness in the ensembles for continued settled mild weather until mid month, but atlantic troughs threatening to make inroads. High pressure anomalies still across northern europe / scandinavia. If this 7 month pattern continues I wonder will we benefit later from undercuts (troughs from west and east), or will the high pressure sink into central europe and keep things very dry.

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Last three GFS runs have seen the op toying with something like this around 19/20 October.



Clearly too far out, but might start to get interesting if picked up. Meanwhile some pretty fine hiking and cycling weather coming up.
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what is the point in putting weather patterns that are a week & over 10 days away?
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Mr.Egg wrote:
what is the point in putting weather patterns that are a week & over 10 days away?
Because we want to have an idea whether there is a possibility for snow to fall?
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@Mr.Egg, what is the point of anything.....
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Mr.Egg, what is the point of you?
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If you just look at the far end of individual ensemble runs and simply pick one you like the look of then there is not really much point.

However, what may be of more interest is looking to see whether there is some sort of signal or pattern beneath the noise.

Watching several runs over a period may provide you with some indication of what may be coming through the mist.

If you keep seeing the same pattern being repeated it may be worth paying it more attention.

But at that range it is very unlikely to give you much of a sense of the detail, let alone be something you can have much confidence in.

But if it starts to regularly crop up then slowly and with patience your confidence can increase...

If not. Then not.


http://youtube.com/v/B7YDcLP2DeY
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@Mr.Egg, the point of the chart I posted was to show the amount of above average temps to our north in a weeks time. Has been a theme since April. The fact there is cross model agreement, and tight ensembles, means it's likely to be very close to the mark. That setup can have a knock on effect / building block for the next cold spell (undercutting lows, pulling cold air across Russia etc)
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Whitegold wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Stubaier glacier opening this weekend.

https://www.facebook.com/schifahren.stubaiergletscher/videos/2088782368104706/


Good spot.

Their new 3-cable tram looks fancy.

https://www.stubaier-gletscher.com/en/ski-area/


Best thing about it is now everyone parks down at that end of the car park, so the old gondola rarely has a queue wink

-------

I was tempted to go up to Stubai this weekend, but there's still enough water in Ötztal that kayaking is more fun atm. 15°C in Sölden village today... The glaciers had a nice top up last week but I don't think it was much more than cosmetic, with plenty of bare ice still about. Not particularly unusual for the time of year I guess, but I'm not really feeling the urge yet this year, at least without a solid storm brewing in the foreseeable future.

Been a few big chunks falling off the Schaufelspitz at Stubai lately too: https://www.facebook.com/klaus.kranebitter.5/posts/298950920884346
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Continuing mild, sunny and really rather pleasant weather across much of the Alps. Thursday could be rainy in the south and west, stronger winds and snow line down to 2700m (though not much in the way of snow). Chilly first thing.
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As mentioned by me previously on this thread les Deux Alpes have confirmed they will stay shuttered this half term due to lack of snow, for the second year running.

No news on Tignes - not before November is the word on the street. The Sunday/Monday weather system fell at rain at glacier altitudes (zero iso was around 3500 meters).


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Tue 9-10-18 8:07; edited 2 times in total
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Five of the last seven GFS runs have suggested colder weather from 19 October. Still FI mind you.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
the cold air is waiting in the wings.....east coast of US and western Russia, but several runs also suggesting heights will sink into eastern europe. ECM ensembles have been 50/50 on whether we can keep the heights to the north and feed in the cold from the west, or they sink and it's stays drier.

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The lack of French glaciers to train on, with little prospect of them opening before November, is causing major headaches for the French ski team. Apparently it is "bedlam" on the few glaciers that are open in CH and AUS and French team member Adrien Théaux says even there "it is pretty sad" and if you are not one of the top world cup racers and have to "queue for up to an hour" for an uplift.

Things are so bad that the French team are even considering one of the UK fridges to train.... until Brexit that is. Happy.


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Tue 9-10-18 22:08; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@davidof, The one French fridge is a lot better (and cheaper) than any of the UK ones.
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rjs wrote:
@davidof, The one French fridge is a lot better (and cheaper) than any of the UK ones.


sounds good. The French team are going to the one in Hamburg.
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Queues don’t look too bad on the web cam from Hintertux today.

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@davidof, I met a guy recently involved in avoriaz kids freestyle team, they ski 10 months a year, only skipping June and August, but it's getting harder....think they are in Saas Fee at the moment. They have to self fund everything because sponsors can't sell enough freestyle skis....but off topic.

Weather wise the current theme I'm seeing is that western and southern alps are going to benefit. Nothing lasts for ever, but the med and central france have seen low pressure anomalies, while eastern europe is often under higher pressure. Still lot's of potential on the charts beyond next weekend, and even then it's only mid Oct.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Wed 10-10-18 6:36; edited 1 time in total
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Queues don’t look too bad on the web cam from Hintertux today.



I certainly wouldn't be queuing to ski on that, to be honest with you.
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@davidof, that wasn’t the point though.
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NAO has been very strongly positive for much of 2018.

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Melting glaciers in Arctic northern Russia are now pouring radiation (from old 1950s / 1960s USSR nuke tests) into the ocean.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/10/melting-glaciers-novaya-zemlya-contain-radiation-nuclear-bomb-tests
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Mr.Egg wrote:
what is the point in putting weather patterns that are a week & over 10 days away?


Directional guidance.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
NAO has been very strongly positive for much of 2018.


What does it mean if it persists into Winter?
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