 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Jellybeans1000, out of interest have you looked back and seen how your long term forecasts have compared to what actually happened? Genuinely interested and not trying to wind you up 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@kitenski, I shall give it a try for you. Quotes were the forecast of the day.
Later Feb and Early March.
"All and all, the models show a increasingly snowy Northern Alps. But I expect a -NAO setup in the last two weeks of the month and into the early days of March, that tends to support the Southern Alps (and the UK) in terms of snowfall and building troughing scenarios."
+NAO occurred throughout, except for a day or so. (if the current forecast goes to plan for early March also).
Dominated by a high at least in the second half of Feb (this is probably a weakness of my forecast as a whole, and I am working towards being able to substantiate between a snowfall setup, and a Euro high).
Late Jan and Feb
"My overall view is that from the last week of Jan to the second week of Feb, will feature major snow risks for the Southern Alps and the UK. There will be plenty of cold around, but not so much snow for the Northern Alps. We should see a neutralisation in the later stages of the month."
From what I can see, those major snow risks occurred in the Northern Alps, not the Southern. But I did foresee the "neutralisation", or noted by EC Weeklies at the time, a big fat ridge for Mid-Late Feb.
Jan
"The overall impact of the SSW, and extratropical/tropical factors is a favourable Week 2-4 of January in Europe, and relaxation of the favourable pattern in Early Feb. Overall there will be more cold for the UK and the Southern Alps. It may be less snowy for the Northern Alps, than the South, but they still should get a decent amount of snowfall."
A -NAO never really played ball. It was a great month for the Eastern (especially) and Northern Alps. The extra snowfall for the Southern Alps never really eventuated, but the North got a "decent amount of snowfall".
Late Dec and Early Jan
"The combination between the AAM and the (technical) SSW looks to bring cold and above average snowfall to the European Alps from the 25th Dec, becoming at it's best around New Years, and continuing at least two weeks into January."
There was definitely a favouring of the Eastern Alps in this period, particularly in Jan. The Western Alps had little snow however. So I was right in saying it to bring cold and above average snowfall, it just came from the East only.
I did okay, given that many long term forecasters have had trouble this season, with the weird impacts of the SSW, and extratropical impacts that were rather perculiar, given the very strong +AAM cycles this season. It wasn't amazing, but we learn and move towards the next season
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@Jellybeans1000, thank you, looks like you did more than just OK
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@kitenski, thanks I appreciate it. Glad those in the Northern Alps got heaps of freshies, and I hope those in the South get some more soon enough.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Lovely and cold yesterday and this morning, warmed up now.
ECM toying with some fresh snow...
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The wiggles starting to suggest maybe a bit of precipitation from 1-3 March followed by a gradual cooling and more substantial precipitation the following week.
Still looking warm/mild to start off with though. How high is the snowline likely to be in the Southern Alps with this sort of setup?
(I know this is still in the unreliable timeframe but off to Serre Chevalier in 2 weeks and hoping that everything is not going to be washed away by rain !)
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ECM coming in line with GFS for the first week of March. Details still unclear but the period around 05/06 March looks like bringing fresh snow to many places, Snowline currently looks like starting relatively high but falling rapidly, but that is still some way out.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Jet stream in the EC going south on the continent. A real change from the February weather, but still uncertainty regarding the outcome. Ensambles indicate 50/50 on south/further north regarding the jet stream.
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1st March now seems to be getting some support for a much needed top up for some.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Most forecasts site now have dropping temps and snow/rain towards end of this week and into next.
CAn anyone post some of the weather model details as never sure on how to get the right one.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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The US West Coast is getting hammered right now. The recent weekend storms that hit the Cascade range of Washington and Oregon made there way inland and had enough energy and moisture to drop 20+" in Central/Southern Idaho, the Tetons and also the Northern Rockies. The Sierras will also see strong moisture flow that will make its way into Utah and the Wasatch range around Thursday. The Northern Colorado resorts will start seeing some of that weakened energy late Thursday into Friday. The weekend will continue to see the West-East flow of moisture streaming in off the Pacific in a wide band of moisture with some warming and cooling intermixed with a yo-yo effect temps as each wave moves to the East.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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More and more indications for southerly jet stream. Will give quite a lot of percipitation over the Pyrenees and the Alps.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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12z GFS’ snow game is strong.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 12z GFS’ snow game is strong. |
for where?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 12z GFS’ snow game is strong. |
im starting to worry about flight getting diverted & loss of days on the slope for upcoming trip
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 12z GFS’ snow game is strong. |
Bring it on ...
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| Mr.Egg wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| 12z GFS’ snow game is strong. |
im starting to worry about flight getting diverted & loss of days on the slope for upcoming trip |
The annual snowheads panic...........will there be enough, will there be too much, will this sun destroy all the slopes, will my plane take off from the uk, will my plane get diverted.........happy days
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Bring it, this is setting up perfect for me. 2 weeks starting Sat. Looks like I am in for a lot of soft snow. I may need to start looking for lower elation tree skiing alternatives. Such a terrible compromise to make.
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Colder and colder trend from the 6/7 of March. EC ens even indicating colder than normal for Alp region.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Wed 27-02-19 6:42; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| skiberg wrote: |
| I may need to start looking for lower elation tree skiing |
Nobody wants lower elation tree skiing...get out there and find some high-elation tree skiing! 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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This how GFS sees the coming snowfall out to the end of next Wednesday. Focussed mainly on the northern side of the Alps. Temperatures looking at or a little below seasonal average on the op run.
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What a season, sunny and dry for the holidays, snowy the rest of the time. Everyone is happy  sun tans, sore legs and a bunch of plucky seedlings breaking through.
Tuesday looking good for the flow to swing W/NW, and it's even going to snow in France this Friday as the FL goes crypto, diving from 3500 to 1000m in two days
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo,
Spot on
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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A work colleague yesterday commented on my obsessive looking at weather report sites and this thread:
"You can't change it - what's the point?"
Oh, the poor unfortunate.
She can never understand the thrill of watching the charts change, the temperature fall, the possibility of snow appear, and all getting wonderful for when i arrive the end of next week 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Jonpim wrote: |
She can never understand the thrill of watching the charts change, the temperature fall, the possibility of snow appear, and all getting wonderful for when i arrive the end of next week |
Haha same!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Jonpim, what about the flip side of the coin 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Arriving Les Arcs 9th March, get in there, thank you snow God.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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+27C in some of the Pyrenean valleys today. A record.
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| davidof wrote: |
| +27C in some of the Pyrenean valleys today. A record. |
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FAQ
