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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Beautiful photo.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@davidof, how was the slush with all that sun?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@davidof, beautiful, where?
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Whitegold wrote:
Beautiful photo.


Taken by Patrice, who I climbed part of the route with. My own photo is considerably more blurry.



I didn't notice any slush, but I quite like skiing slush.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Great Pic , hope the descent was equally good
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clarky999 wrote:
staffsan wrote:
Does anyone have any tips for someone who will never learn to like slush and will be in the Chamonix the next couple of weeks? I mean even there skiing is limited over 3000m, which seems to be almost as high as FL will be some days. Get skins and head for north faces? Would i be better off heading east to maybe some place like Zermatt, or even to higher resorts in Austria? Or should i just get this trip over with so i can forget it and start planning the next, promising to never ever go outside of january again?


If lovely smooth soft spring snow, endlessly grippy pistes, and cold beers on warm sun terraces surrounded by mountains sound that awful to you, maybe donate the trip to someone who will appreciate it and go to Milton Keynes instead. I hear they maintain consistent temperatures.


Having grown up in the resort town of Milton Keynes, I can confirm. Being from a place where skiing runs so naturally through the veins, it's easy to forget how variable weather can be in lesser resorts.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@davidof, great photo!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

I don’t actually believe it’s going to be that hot next week , yes very nice in the afternoon on the sunny slopes but cold nights and still cool on shaded slopes . Too much over reaction going on .


Today's 5 day forecast from Chamonix Meteo agrees:

http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/morning/5_days_weather_forecast.php

In particular very cold nights and mornings (including low down due to temperature inversion) and cold 'bise' north east wind to go along with mild afternoons on south facing slopes. So should be plenty of variety of ski-ing to choose from and lovely sunny lunches outside on the terrace. Plus next week still looks rather uncertain with respect to temperatures.
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OldHacker wrote:

In particular very cold nights and mornings (including low down due to temperature inversion) and cold 'bise' north east wind to go along with mild afternoons on south facing slopes.


It doesn't seem that way for the NE Alps.
The forecast for the weekend in St Johann in Tirol is for 15 degrees at resort level and 10 degrees at the top of the mountain with little wind. ZAMG.

It should cool down again from Tuesday onwards.
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@davidof, great photo!

GFS12z follows 06z in producing a very cold run from 22 Feb. Control supports it too. But a huge spread.


Schladming
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@nozawaonsen, Thank you very much indeed Very Happy
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andy1234 wrote:
@davidof, beautiful, where?


French Chartreuse: http://pistehors.com/6i-t4mgBB8B6DbBQf5eS/couloir-en-virgule-anthologic

some of the best conditions locally for the last 5 years, IMHO, and much better than last year.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
davidof wrote:


some of the best conditions locally for the last 5 years, IMHO, and much better than last year.


I have to agree. Conditions in the Chablais have been fantastic this year. Virtually no rain since xmas. It has either been snowing down to low levels or sunny. The snow pack is very good and has been generally stable around here. The touring, excellent.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Lovely cold snow first thing in Saalbach. Sun yet to break through.

A lot of sunny weather on the way. Looks pretty consistent to about 22 Feb after which models flip flopping all over.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@davidof, @zzz, yes whilst great snowfall last season there was also lots of rain to quite high elevations , we haven’t had a warm spell since the weekend before Christmas and this weekends doesn’t have any rain in it and I’m not convinced it’s going to last that long either . A good season so far .
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
zzz wrote:
davidof wrote:


some of the best conditions locally for the last 5 years, IMHO, and much better than last year.


I have to agree. Conditions in the Chablais have been fantastic this year. Virtually no rain since xmas. It has either been snowing down to low levels or sunny. The snow pack is very good and has been generally stable around here. The touring, excellent.


Yes, exactly that. We don't have any high trail access around Grenoble, most starting points for ski touring are 900-1200 m so last year whenever it snowed we got blitzed with rain below 2000m. Conditions below 1500 meters were very poor and above you had a day of fresh (although never more than 15-20cm) then rain or wind. This year we've had snow from around 1200m since the start of the season and now snow down to low levels since mid Jan. Some low level ski pistes open that I've not seen in use since 2013.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
Lovely cold snow first thing in Saalbach. Sun yet to break through.

A lot of sunny weather on the way. Looks pretty consistent to about 22 Feb after which models flip flopping all over.


Great snow in Axamer Lizum this morning too, at least in bowls between the windfucked spots. Glorious sun too! Stubai should be amazing on the weekend judging by the forecast!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
kitenski wrote:
Dashed wrote:
Why’s my ensemble link stuck on 4th Feb? Just me??

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png


Yes sadly the link to the specific graphic file appears to have stopped working, anyone know if it is an error or a conscious decision to switch that off?


Seems to be working now.
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Peak-winter for the Northern Hemisphere happened on Monday-just-gone.

Spring is right around the corner.
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@Whitegold, maybe it is...but Monday just gone was the best powder day I have ever enjoyed in many, many European ski days.

The snowpack is deep, the weather will be good/bad/cold/warm/sunny/snowy/all of these
....and we will have a lot more skiing.

You are full of doom predictions.

Here is my prediction:

The lift system will close in Verbier on the last sunday in April, and there will still be a lot of skiing available, both on and off piste.
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Agree. A settled high-pressure week and a bit of early spring sunshine over the Alps following 8 weeks of non-stop snow, freezing temps and no rain is hardly worth stressing over. It's only February, plenty more snow and cold to come yet. Even if it decides to stay like this there's metres of the stuff to get through before April.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Maybe @Whitegold but write winter off at your peril! Plenty more cold and snowy days to come!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Whitegold,

Well if your right Peak stocks of Rose was last Monday , it’s downhill from here Very Happy
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Whitegold wrote:
Peak-winter for the Northern Hemisphere happened on Monday-just-gone.

Spring is right around the corner.


2 weeks of winter left before we move into spring. Peak snow depth at 2000 meters happens towards the end of March though.
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2nd week of march is looking interesting this far out.

First up the flurries for end of next week, just in time for half term
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@Mr.Egg, what is FI saying about the 2nd week of March?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Handy Turnip wrote:
@Mr.Egg, what is FI saying about the 2nd week of March?


I doubt its saying anything of use at that range.

GFS only goes out to 2nd March at this point

The ECMWF extended ENS 46 would cover mid march but again they're nearly worthless at that range
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@jimmybog, you’re right. It’s so far into FI that it’s just a mirage.

He lured me in with a teasing post, and I got suckered in. Shame on me! Embarassed
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Anyone got any detail data for Sierra Nevada region over next 7 days? Snow Forecast is indicating a drop in temps and some snow Mon/Tues....hopefully it's correct as we arrive on the Thurs Cool
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
'ooh it aint half hot mum'. Due to my first grandchild arriving at the end of January, we delayed our main ski trip to the beginning of March, (5th to 14th). I obviously don't regret doing this however skiing last week would have been very nice. Zermatt temps at midday are looking to be around normal Liverpool temps for the time of year over the next week. GFS runs are showing temps out to the end of the month at around 5 degrees above historical average. Lets hope we see a move soon across Europe.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
davidof wrote:
Some low level ski pistes open that I've not seen in use since 2013.

Are they on the piste map?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Whitegold wrote:
Peak-winter for the Northern Hemisphere happened on Monday-just-gone.

Spring is right around the corner.


It certainly feels like spring at the moment. Bring it on.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
südtirolistdeutsch wrote:
davidof wrote:
Some low level ski pistes open that I've not seen in use since 2013.

Are they on the piste map?


yup

First crocus in the garden today

and still lots of slush around on the mountain Happy

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So - at least for now ECMWF seems to be going for a colder option next week, which is nice, even hinting at a small top up over a certain area of the alps that im very fond of on wednesday (even nicer!) illustrated aptly in following pic:



But then Dorit the high pressure system takes over again, and just look at how it (she, he?) places in JUST the wrong place. Almost like its taunting us.



But now its flanked by two lower pressure systems as far as i understand from the charts, but still the trend looks to be that it just presses further north and heats up even more. Why? What will it take for it to bend?
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Well that would bring colder than average temperatures to the eastern Alps.

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@nozawaonsen, Yes thats right! Didnt focus on that part while looking at it for some reason. Guess they could use it tho given the poor season they've had so far.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@staffsan, ??
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
T'was a joke.
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Strong east west split in latter part of ECM.

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Sadly it looks like the average daily post count on this particular thread is going to fall considerably for the next 10 days or so. Sad

Is there any signs of a change towards the start of March ?
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