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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:


Does a warm late summer mean anything about the forthcoming winter? Apart from the fact the glaciers suffer....


No I don't think so.

The fact it has been way above the recent long term average since January (see Noz' chart above) means... well that it was warmer this year than in the recent past.
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@davidof, the temps have peaked...I may have been a little early, and should have looked more closely at the far south. One more spike on 27th Sep, back up to 15-16C at 850hpa (1500m) in the NW and then down.

Recent runs have re-positioned high pressure N and W of Ireland into Oct, so forecasted pattern has slipped a little eastward. As is often the case, I find the models regularly underestimate the eastward movement of systems (ie as we get closer to t+0, everything shifts east).



So likely to see ongoing temp split with the east at times 4-8 deg colder than parts of the west / south.
But the old reliable CFSv2 continues to see widespread cold October anomalies.

@kitenski GWV has just done a lot of analysis of hot and dry summers from the past....concluding with a very strong northern blocking signal and hence cold winters for UK / europe. Here's his summary of the 3rd winter update..

"Overall we see a strong blocking signal for the Winters that follow these very dry Summers. Combining all years December is favoured to have a strong blocking signal close to Greenland and Iceland with a trough of below average heights to the south and east of the UK. January also has a strong blocking signal although the trough is more centered over the UK so perhaps not quite such a clear cold cold signal for January. February is favoured to have a strong Scandinavian High so could have cold easterly winds while March places the block close to Greenland and Iceland.

Unsurprisingly the Winters themselves have a strong blocking signal and if we narrow the analogues down to the top ten driest Summers we see an even stronger signal for at times quite extreme levels of northern blocking in the Winters that follow them. December, January, February and March and all Winters combined all demonstrate an even stronger blocking signal in the Winters following the top ten driest Summers than the top twenty-two driest. This is an extremely strong blocking signal and very surprising!

Finally we attempt to put the hottest Summers together with driest Summers and come up with 1976, 1983 and 1995. The Winters that follow those three Summers continue to demonstrate a strong blocking signal especially in December and again in March but all Winter months could conceivably have cold conditions via northern blocking."
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@polo, that looks like a good set of research from Gavin, but overall my sense is that pattern matching is not an especially strong indicator. Be interesting to see.

Storm front just edging down into Austria. Highest wind I’ve seen recorded in Germany today was 159kmh in Weinbiet.
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polo wrote:
@davidof, the temps have peaked...I may have been a little early, and should have looked more closely at the far south. One more spike on 27th Sep, back up to 15-16C at 850hpa (1500m) in the NW and then down.

Recent runs have re-positioned high pressure N and W of Ireland into Oct, so forecasted pattern has slipped a little eastward. As is often the case, I find the models regularly underestimate the eastward movement of systems (ie as we get closer to t+0, everything shifts east).



So likely to see ongoing temp split with the east at times 4-8 deg colder than parts of the west / south.
But the old reliable CFSv2 continues to see widespread cold October anomalies.

@kitenski GWV has just done a lot of analysis of hot and dry summers from the past....concluding with a very strong northern blocking signal and hence cold winters for UK / europe. Here's his summary of the 3rd winter update..

"Overall we see a strong blocking signal for the Winters that follow these very dry Summers. Combining all years December is favoured to have a strong blocking signal close to Greenland and Iceland with a trough of below average heights to the south and east of the UK. January also has a strong blocking signal although the trough is more centered over the UK so perhaps not quite such a clear cold cold signal for January. February is favoured to have a strong Scandinavian High so could have cold easterly winds while March places the block close to Greenland and Iceland.

Unsurprisingly the Winters themselves have a strong blocking signal and if we narrow the analogues down to the top ten driest Summers we see an even stronger signal for at times quite extreme levels of northern blocking in the Winters that follow them. December, January, February and March and all Winters combined all demonstrate an even stronger blocking signal in the Winters following the top ten driest Summers than the top twenty-two driest. This is an extremely strong blocking signal and very surprising!

Finally we attempt to put the hottest Summers together with driest Summers and come up with 1976, 1983 and 1995. The Winters that follow those three Summers continue to demonstrate a strong blocking signal especially in December and again in March but all Winter months could conceivably have cold conditions via northern blocking."


What does ‘blocking’ result in? Cold and snowy or warm and dry?
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@sbooker, that depends completely on where the blocking sets up. Could be either. But northern blocking would tend to force the jet stream south allowing cold air to flow down from the pole. Though it would also be important to see where the jet stream ended up as it could also lead to drier than usual conditions. Quite a lot of could and maybe at this stage.
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^^^^
Thanks. So from my perspective as I’ll be in the alps early season (Christmas through mid January) I hope for average conditions for that time of year I suppose? That is some but not a lot of snow on the pistes - enough to slide around on and take in some nice scenery?
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Storm has caused Zug-Chaos in Vienna! Trains running up to... 15 minutes late. Hmmm.
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Sölden snow showers.

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@nozawaonsen, Nice. Meteo finestra suggests there might be a dusting on the tops around here, but it's too cloudy to know for sure.
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Quote:

nozawaonsen
super-snowHead
Posts: 7055

Storm has caused Zug-Chaos in Vienna! Trains running up to... 15 minutes late. Hmmm


The fact it is a Monday morning usually does that where I live.
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Was surprised that my train to Vienna (from the west) was only running 1 min late this morning, with last night's high winds I expected a much longer delay.


Looks like west Austria and south Germany (1 killed in Bayern) saw the brunt of Fabienne

https://vorarlberg.orf.at/news/stories/2937547/

https://derstandard.at/2000087942681/Sturmtief-Fabienne-forderte-Todesopfer-in-Deutschland
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Looks as if Tignes won't open at the end of the month... if anyone has more info? Glacier certainly looks dry.

Pic du Midi has just recorded over 100 consecutive days with no freeze. A record. This at 2800 meters altitude.
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polo wrote:
@davidof, the temps have peaked...I may have been a little early, and should have looked more closely at the far south. One more spike on 27th Sep, back up to 15-16C at 850hpa (1500m) in the NW and then down.


I'm sure your peaks were right. We were at 37 at the start of Aug. 33ish in Sept. Dropping to 28C for the end of the month. It is just exceptionally hot.
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Also a light dusting in Ischgl.



Temperatures in Salzkammergut (500m asl) peaked at 28C Friday, but are a chilly 8C now.
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Both GFS and ECM suggesting below average temperatures for the eastern Alps as we head into October.





High pressure sitting out to the east of the UK.



And the jet driving over the top and down.

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 Poster: A snowHead
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I love it when the mountains start to turn white.....those pics are awesome. Early days, but the chill in the air his morning in London made a welcome change....
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great set of 12z, end of run ECM has low over Swiss, GEM has bigger low over Austria, and GFS goes mental with northerlies for all
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So continuing summer weather in the French Alps until early next week. This from Tignes

Quote:

PRESS RELEASE
POSTPONEMENT OF THE OPENING OF THE GLACIER OF THE GRANDE MOTTE
Last winter's impressive snowfall let us think that we would have a serene summer and autumn in terms of the quality of skiing on the Grande Motte glacier, the record temperatures recorded in Europe this summer and in recent weeks have not spared the high altitude ski area of Tignes.
At the end of September, we can only note a degraded snowpack, that does not offer optimal training conditions for skiers, clubs and professionals in sliding sports, who traditionally put their skis back on in Tignes from the month of October.

The Company of the Grande Motte cable cars, the Régie des Pistes and the Tignes Town Hall have taken the joint decision to postpone the opening of the Grande Motte ski area (initially scheduled for 29 September) to a later date.
The team is ready to welcome the first skiers of the season as soon as the cold and precipitation conditions will be met.

The opening of indoor sports facilities (the Tignespace sports and congress centre and the aquatic area Le Lagon) is maintained
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A chilly +1º here this morning! I can see snow from my balcony!
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Stubaier Glacier have also pushed back their opening date. Tentative talk of 5th/6th Oct... Normally around 20th Sept, but they didn't get as much snow as hoped the other day.
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It certainly looks "sub-optimal"



although I'm sure I've seen it open with less snow.
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This is what Hintertux looked like on Friday before fresh snowfall.



This is what Hintertux looked like earlier today (Tuesday) after just light snowfall on Sunday evening.



Even a very small amount of snow at this time of year makes quite a big cosmetic difference. By and large glaciers always look a bit grey and unappealing at the end of summer before fresh snow. That’s not to say they aren’t decreasing in mass as a result of warmer temperatures. They are. Just that photos of them at the end of summer don’t necessarily provide the best illustration of this.
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Anyone got any thoughts on the harsh winter theory (I must have read about it in the Express between the Maddie and Lady Di features) due to lack of sunspots? Apparently it's going to be a Dickensian winter. As I'm working over Christmas it kind of chimes.
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davidof wrote:
Anyone got any thoughts on the harsh winter theory (I must have read about it in the Express between the Maddie and Lady Di features) due to lack of sunspots? Apparently it's going to be a Dickensian winter. As I'm working over Christmas it kind of chimes.


another theory is dry summers follow wintery conditions

So...
No sunspots, a long hot dry summer & El Nino/La nina

Should be a good one snowHead

or proves we believe any old poo-poo!
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First frost at valley level this morning, blue skies above white peaks. Stunning.
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@davidof, several posts already on this thread re. the winter... signals for northern blocking (solar min, summer analogues, long range models etc). ENSO neutral to weak +ve might be a small help too (apparently anything in the -1 to +1 range is better for Europe than extreme Nino / Nina).
On the flip side, QBO heading into westerly phase, the world is drying out / heating up and it's all too far away anyway.

In the more sensible time frame, charts have edged the cold and lows back west under the high block, so early Oct looking cooler in the west and the southern alps could really hit the jackpot if ECM is right about Genoa low / possible Medicane

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@queenie pretty please, was beautiful yesterday hiking in the sunshine in the Hohe Tauern looking up at the snowy peaks!
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I remember that when you drove up to Tignes they had a big banner saying "Tignes, le ski 365 jours par an", we're certainly a long way from those days (about 20 or so years ago).

As for the French summits, no snow yet. Next week is looking to be warm, dry and sunny.


http://youtube.com/v/ChZieeFVaBE
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davidof wrote:
Next week is looking to be warm, dry and sunny.


Depends where you are looking....try YR.NO....Avoriaz, Flaine, Cham, Val Thorens, Isola 2000, Sestriere and so on, all showing white stuff from Tues
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queenie pretty please wrote:
First frost at valley level this morning, blue skies above white peaks. Stunning.


Noticed that. I don't think there'll be many swimming in the Zeller See this morning Blue

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@robboj, hiking just above there at moment. Little patches of snow in the shade at 1700m. Snowy Kitzsteinhorn shining white in the sun. Looks like they are pisting from the other side of the valley.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@robboj, hiking just above there at moment. Little patches of snow in the shade at 1700m. Snowy Kitzsteinhorn shining white in the sun. Looks like they are pisting from the other side of the valley.


Very jealous, which side are you hiking on, Schmittenhöhe or Schwalbenwand/Hundstein?

They will be wanting to bash down what they got the other night on the glacier. last time I looked there was almost no snow on the ice at all.
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@robboj, Schmittenhöhe. Perfect autumn hiking conditions.

Start of October still looks cold. Snowline down to 1300m briefly. Likely snowfall still drifting back and forth between east and west.



Another dip around 07/08 October.
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@nozawaonsen, Had another look in the afternoon, looked absolutely perfect.

Hopefully these falls come. That 33 in the chart above is right over Sölden which is going to need a lot of snow if its to hold a race on the Rettenbach in a little over 4 weeks time. Presuming the snow control is at least a week before things might get squeaky soon if it they don't

?
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Gilles Vanheule, director of tourism for les Deux Alpes has just announced that "in view of the current state of the glacier I'm pessimistic about us opening for autumn half term". The webcams are currently off so we can't see for ourselves... well I guess I could cycle up if I were motivated enough.

For Tignes "not before mid October" is the latest word.
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Still on course for snowfall in the eastern Alps.

This shows the 12z GFS update (the chart above shows the 00z update). I would not take the numbers too religiously.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
Still on course for snowfall in the eastern Alps.

This shows the 12z GFS update (the chart above shows the 00z update). I would not take the numbers too religiously.


I won't but thankfully it seems to be intensifying.
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@nozawaonsen, I know you caveat those charts, as it's only the GFS Op run, and it often covers a lot of short term snow (out to 3-4 days) which isn't GFS's strong area.

This morning for example, at t+96, pretty much every model (ECM, UKMO, GEM, ICON) has a clear genoa low apart from the GFS. Interesting to see which is right, because that low has a big impact on FL and precip for most of the western side as well as southern ridge. ICON v GFS below. Can see the green shading over the western and southern alps on left (548 dam) vs orange/yellow (568 dam) on the right.



A few flakes here and there won't matter in Oct, but am tracking the ICON and shorter range models more closely this season to see if there's greater accuracy. Speaking of which, ECM is set to introduce 6z and 18z and even 1hr intervals soon. Unlikely to be available freely tho.
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@polo, yep those GFS charts are very broad brush.

Should be some reasonable snowfall (20-30cms) across much of the northern Alps arriving tonight in the West and into tomorrow. Snowline falling to 1400m in the east, more like 1700m in the west.

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Snowing in Val Thorens.

https://www.facebook.com/969505053076246/posts/2358451280848276/
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