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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
what just happened with ECM from 13/2 onwards for the west alps? Looking absolutely horrifying.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
staffsan wrote:
what just happened with ECM from 13/2 onwards for the west alps? Looking absolutely horrifying.


Looks nice to me - a couple of days of snow then a few days of warm sunshine snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@telford_mike, Constant thaw and temps up to 10c in the valleys? A total nightmare.
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@staffsan, that was one run... it means nothing really. It's been flicking from pretty much average temps to colder, to warmer. So it's all up in the air. Only time will tell what happens.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Morning all,

Anyone know what has happend to my trusty go-to wiggles?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_645_ens.png

Seems to have stopped from 4th Feb?
ski holidays     
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@RetroBod, You could try this one - just change the lat/long to suit.
https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.45&lon=6.98
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@RetroBod, see previous page. We are not allowed to call them wiggles any more...
snow conditions     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
RetroBod wrote:
Morning all,

Anyone know what has happend to my trusty go-to wiggles?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_645_ens.png

Seems to have stopped from 4th Feb?



Try here Smile

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=46241&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Wow. Looks like summer next week?
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RetroBod wrote:
Wow. Looks like summer next week?


Yes, cant believe it. Looked so good just a couple of runs ago. Does anybody know whats happened in the models to cause this totally disasterous outlook?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@staffsan, “totally disastrous” seems a little hyperbolic? Looks like some fresh snow for many places followed by a mild sunny period. If sunshine is the worst problem you are facing it’s not that bad.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Next week could be the week of the season so far! Massive base, fresh on Sunday/Monday followed by wall to wall sunshine. What’s not to like?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, yes, i guess im overreacting. Sunshine is ok, mild weather tho is the stuff that'd make me cancel my trips were it not for fixed work schedules.

I think this weather forecast watching is not healthy for me mentally. Im constantly watching meteociel, yr, tropical tidbits, wetterzentrale, bergfex, j2ski, snowforecast and profiled meterologists on twitter. Everytime it looks like my skiing weeks are in for fresh snow and reasonable temps below zero i get all hyped up and when theyre not i just get sad.

Still, close to all skiing is good skiing, as long as it does not rain heavily. I realize the 1 meter of fresh snow, low winds and perfect temperatures setup is a bit too much to ask for Neh Neh


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Fri 8-02-19 23:30; edited 2 times in total
snow report     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@BobinCH, yep!
snow conditions     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Sorry for blabbering, had some wine.
ski holidays     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
BobinCH wrote:
Next week could be the week of the season so far! Massive base, fresh on Sunday/Monday followed by wall to wall sunshine. What’s not to like?


Maybe, problem is im arriving the week after that when its all thawed/frozen and crusty!
snow report     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@staffsan, I wouldn't get too disheartened with the models. They are flip flopping 3-4 times a day and have lost the plot since the SSW at the turn of the year. From many years of watching the long-term trends in advance of ski breaks, they generally always overestimate snow or default to crazy mild westerlies that rarely verify. And sometimes they get the weather right, usually 24hrs in advance. There is so much snow in the Alps at the moment that it would take a summer heatwave to ruin your holiday. Famous last words Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
staffsan wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
Next week could be the week of the season so far! Massive base, fresh on Sunday/Monday followed by wall to wall sunshine. What’s not to like?


Maybe, problem is im arriving the week after that when its all thawed/frozen and crusty!


Oh dear. Probably all melted by then. Bring your swimming trunks? Shocked
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staffsan wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
Next week could be the week of the season so far! Massive base, fresh on Sunday/Monday followed by wall to wall sunshine. What’s not to like?


Maybe, problem is im arriving the week after that when its all thawed/frozen and crusty!


Hope it turns around for you.

I have to say this has been a pretty good couple of weeks weather wise for me. I’ve had some pretty bad luck in the past so it’s about time! Last trip had two days in a row complete lift shut down due to wind.

Last week was fresh snow in the Three Valleys and this week has been mostly sunshine every day in St Anton. No rain, slush or strong winds. It’s practically a miracle snowHead
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
hedley wrote:
RetroBod wrote:
Morning all,

Anyone know what has happend to my trusty go-to wiggles?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_645_ens.png

Seems to have stopped from 4th Feb?



Try here Smile

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=46241&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=


Thanks for this, I was wondering why they had stopped updating after the 4th as well.

Looks like a top-up of snow Sunday/Monday. Hopefully not too much rain lower down to start off with. 4 weeks to my holiday, just hoping there isn't a massive heatwave until I get there!
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staffsan wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
Next week could be the week of the season so far! Massive base, fresh on Sunday/Monday followed by wall to wall sunshine. What’s not to like?


Maybe, problem is I'm arriving the week after that when its all thawed/frozen and crusty!


Please listen to the experts here and don't stress yourself out about this type of stuff ... you can't ski untracked powder all the time ...

Next week looks like a glorious one to me.

Where are you off to just out of interest?
snow conditions     
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Definitely a bit spring like today. Nice to feel the sun on your face.



Won’t last long though, with snowfall to low levels early on in the week though sun coming through and warming up into next weekend.

snow report     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
franga wrote:
staffsan wrote:
BobinCH wrote:
Next week could be the week of the season so far! Massive base, fresh on Sunday/Monday followed by wall to wall sunshine. What’s not to like?


Maybe, problem is I'm arriving the week after that when its all thawed/frozen and crusty!


Please listen to the experts here and don't stress yourself out about this type of stuff ... you can't ski untracked powder all the time ...

Next week looks like a glorious one to me.

Where are you off to just out of interest?


Yeah, i know it cant always be perfect but i still wish for it to be of course. Ive got two weeks off work and put almost a months earning into it. But i guess its like that for most of us?

Im heading to Cham, my favourite place in the world etc! Smile
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@staffsan, remember the old saying a good day at work is worse than a bad day in the mountains!
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kitenski wrote:
@staffsan, remember the old saying a good day at work is worse than a bad day in the mountains!


Hah! Well thats pure wisdom!
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nozawaonsen wrote:




Beers & bikini tops, now that's my kind of ski holiday...though I do find the straps cut into my shoulders!! Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
kitenski wrote:
@staffsan, remember the old saying a good day at work is worse than a bad day in the mountains!


THIS!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Still looking awful for all foreseeable future, and i cant even cancel my trips. How long do you think this high can last and why cant there be a temperature inversion like in dec/jan?
snow conditions     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
staffsan wrote:
Still looking awful for all foreseeable future, and i cant even cancel my trips. How long do you think this high can last and why cant there be a temperature inversion like in dec/jan?


Mate, if untracked powder isn't on the menu, slush is the next best thing. By far the most fun sort of snow to ski on piste. Far FAR better than wind-scoured re-frozen hardpack. Just get either wider skis or some lessons if you can't enjoy it yet.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@staffsan, there’s going to be fresh snow in many places tomorrow. Then it’s going to be sunny in the mountains. Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here. Why can't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?


http://youtube.com/v/hUtBhC-jygc
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@staffsan, what’s looking awful? Sunny and mild. Looks lovely to me!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@staffsan, i will second that comment about hard packed pistes and at least there is still excellent cover. Night refreeeze returns by the weekend so spring conditions it is!
Honestly, I have skied so much worse in Feb. Yeah we would all like some fresh either while we are there or just before, but probs not gonna happen this year. Long sunny lunches in the mountains, priceless.
ski holidays     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
It's going to snow tonight, then it is going to be fine and sunny, milder but not excessively so. For visitors this week it should be excellent. For the following week, it's too far out for a reliable forecast so stop worrying.
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@nozawaonsen, hah, righteous! Let a man be weather depressed!

@under a new name, the mild and dry, is whats awful.


@clarky999, my skis are wide and its not that i find it too difficult, i just hate the feeling of it, the sensation of mushy slushy dying winter under my feet, and i hate being too hot and sweaty while skiing, i even dislike slush on a estethical level.



@RetroBod, "probs not gonna happen this year" Sad Sad Sad
And i dont care too much for the long lunches, i could eat porridge on tube as long as i get to ski.



@RobinS, yes, the unreliability of the forecasts is a good thing right now Very Happy But how can constant thaw in the valley be "excellent"?


But anyways, sorry for the ultra negativity, its just my current state of mind, i'll keep quiet if you like me to! And still, weatherwise - how long do you think this high can or will last? Whatever happened to the SSW and disrupted polar vortex? And the NAO, why isnt it negative? Why are all these upside down?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@staffsan, the SSW did happen, it did disrupt the polar vortex and it did produce some extraordinary cold weather, just in the eastern US.



SSW’s don’t automatically result in deep cold in Europe. To do that you would have needed the sort of blocking you see with a very negative NAO. That hasn’t taken place and the NAO is remaining stubbornly positive.



Awful, horrifiying, nightmare. These are words I’d use to describe when terrible things happen in life. Not when you are on holiday in the sunshine in the mountains.
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@staffsan, I am afraid your expectations are completely unrealistic then. The current situation is entirely within normal range.

If there wasn’t a deep snowpack above ~1,400m I’d have sympathy.

But there is.

I have some Tryactin if that might help?*

* my new heli-ski guide joke.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
clarky999 wrote:
staffsan wrote:
Still looking awful for all foreseeable future, and i cant even cancel my trips. How long do you think this high can last and why cant there be a temperature inversion like in dec/jan?


Mate, if untracked powder isn't on the menu, slush is the next best thing. By far the most fun sort of snow to ski on piste. Far FAR better than wind-scoured re-frozen hardpack. Just get either wider skis or some lessons if you can't enjoy it yet.


Errr, or a board?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@under a new name, haha!
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
staffsan wrote:
Still looking awful for all foreseeable future, and i cant even cancel my trips. How long do you think this high can last and why cant there be a temperature inversion like in dec/jan?


Pal, we are off to the Arlberg on Saturday ... I'm looking at the forecast and I'm thinking that it couldn't be much better ... a reasonable fall tomorrow and a period of mild, sunny weather. Pack your shades and just enjoy being where you are.
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@nozawaonsen, wink I wondered if anyone would get it.

I only heard it for the first time I remember yesterday courtesy of a mate whose just got his second million foot jacket. At least it’s Arc’teryx... Shocked
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