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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

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Still a lot of uncertainty in the ensembles from about 22 September. But a cold snap next weekend looking quite possible at present.

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GFS12z also pouring in the cold on Saturday week.

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Here we go!


http://youtube.com/v/eIB7BHFTSrM

Shaping up to be the first proper cold spell of autumn. Both op and control go cold and stay cold.

Hintertux



That would see snowfall down to below 1300m if that came off.

Obviously a. it’s quite some way off b. The op and control don’t have much support from the rest of the ensembles.

But. It’s Saturday night!
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ECM currently not suggesting much more than a short sharp cold snap on Saturday, GFS sees cold air being pulled down across the eastern Alps for much of the following week.
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The only cold pouring out of the ECM at the moment is water, to calm down the crazy old GFS wink . Soon to be replaced....
"The new GFS will have significant upgrades in 2019, including increased resolution to allow NOAA to run the model at 9 km and 128 levels out to 16 days, compared to the current run of 13 km and 64 levels out to 10 days"

Something I've been watching for a while is the semi-permanent high over Scandi, since at least April. Low pressure has been stuck over Greenland, with the jet stream running north of UK around the Scandi block. They have had +3C temp anomalies as a result. Apr-Aug average below. GWV picked this up yesterday as well.



Some short range models attempting another break through next week as mentioned above. While longer term modelling has swung towards seeing the blocking further north this winter (better prospects for cold in europe).
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ECM bringing in colder temperatures next weekend. Would be quite a shift from recent milder temperatures, but short lived.
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GFS 06z meanwhile still has both feet on the accelerator...




http://youtube.com/v/8ezfF4J7kHQ
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Hmm. 12z GFS has doubled down on the cold snap.
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huge differences still between ECM and GFS at just t+168 (sun 23rd)....including the latest ensembles, not just the Op's. Some nice colours showing up on the GFS Iso charts (FL below 1000 in the east), but can't be convinced without ECM on board. Either way, east will do better than southern and western side temp wise.
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Sorry if this a bit hijacky, but I have a few weekends free at the backend of November and and want to hold out for a last minute trip. Aside from this forum page is there any other places people use to find last minute snow info? is wepowder a good source? any instagram accounts worth following? and as an extra - is a ‘last minute’ trip even possible due to flight prices? or should i just book flights to Geneva or Innsbruck and hope for the best?
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@gsmyth555, November is off-season, so I wouldn’t even bother booking flights. I was in Innsbruck last November and only booked it a week or so beforehand. Yeah, wepowder is pretty good, used in combination with the experts here and a local weather forecast.

Edit: I should add that I was flat hunting not powder chasing, so even though I did get a day at Stubai, that wasn’t really the purpose of the trip wink
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@gsmyth555, resort webcams
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Day temperatures are still in the 30C+ range in the alpine valleys. I wouldn't go prepping the skis just yet. There is a severe water shortage in the French alps, - some villages being supplied by tankers, this may have an effect on early season snowmaking for some areas as last year.

Quote:
or should i just book flights to Geneva?


where were you thinking of going? Practically everywhere is shut until December, you might get a nice weekend in somewhere like Saas Fee, Tignes or Val Thorens but the choices are not vast and don't require a huge amount of research.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Still some key differences on the charts at t+144, GFS GEM and to a lesser extent UKMO all develop a low over north sea on Sun-Mon (remnants of florence apparently).
Whereas ECM has nothing.



Has a big knock on effect into the week that follows, re. pulling lower temps and precip into eastern europe.
For the south and west alps, still looking terribly dry and mostly mild thru to month end.
Another long term positive though are the current and projected below average strat zonal wind speeds, leading to a weaker trop polar vortex. If all that happens, then you'd expect to see more blocking over the pole and the jet stream dipping south. The opposite of course is a strong PV, strong zonal westerly winds, meaning flat to northerly jetstream (no good). So look out for -AO into Oct.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
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..actually ECM would also bring cold air to the east, despite not having the north sea low, while also projecting flat to higher 500mb pressure. Current 850 temps are on the warm side of it's average ensemble

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An unprecedented 122 days of heatwave in the French Alps and still very hot in the valleys

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It’d certaibly still warm, but 37C is a little odd. That must be in direct sunlight?
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I'm currently sitting outside a tent in Bourg St Maurice in my flip flops in the pitch dark - still warm at 9pm. We've been up to 29c today here & only slightly cooler up at Arc 2000 this afternoon.
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sazza42 wrote:
I'm currently sitting outside a tent in Bourg St Maurice in my flip flops in the pitch dark - still warm at 9pm. We've been up to 29c today here & only slightly cooler up at Arc 2000 this afternoon.


high forecast to be in the mid thirties in Grenoble tomorrow and another few days of that. I'll be interested to see how the Glaciers have done this year.
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@sazza42, yep Bourg St Maurice got up to 29, Grenoble reached 30.7, Avignon 31.1, Chambery 29, Annecy 29.

Our east Salzburg got to 27 and Innsbruck 26.

Hot for the time of year.
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However, this shows the cold weather arriving in the eastern Alps

Kitzsteinhorn

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@gsmyth555,

Innsbruck glacier should be open

https://www.stubaier-gletscher.com/en/stubai-live/events/
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davidof wrote:
sazza42 wrote:
I'm currently sitting outside a tent in Bourg St Maurice in my flip flops in the pitch dark - still warm at 9pm. We've been up to 29c today here & only slightly cooler up at Arc 2000 this afternoon.


high forecast to be in the mid thirties in Grenoble tomorrow and another few days of that. I'll be interested to see how the Glaciers have done this year.


some grim videos of hintertux floating around

but some good videos of Zermatt

Could be the extra few hundred meters or got another dump
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Down in Albertville in April and it was 30C, it was so good to retreat back up to Menuires where the temps were maxing out about 10 degrees cooler. I hate hot weather!
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8611 wrote:
davidof wrote:
sazza42 wrote:
I'm currently sitting outside a tent in Bourg St Maurice in my flip flops in the pitch dark - still warm at 9pm. We've been up to 29c today here & only slightly cooler up at Arc 2000 this afternoon.


high forecast to be in the mid thirties in Grenoble tomorrow and another few days of that. I'll be interested to see how the Glaciers have done this year.


some grim videos of hintertux floating around

but some good videos of Zermatt

Could be the extra few hundred meters or got another dump


Not sure about the Zermatt videos. The webcams are still showing everything below the top is exposed ice rather than snow covered ice (normal this time of year). However they are starting to build the snow track from the end of the Furgg glacier to the lift station at Trockener Steg in anticipation of October snows and (hopefully) the skiing on the lower glacier opening up in October (skiing on the higher glacier is all year long). Building up that (and using snow stocks) shows a certain optimism on the lift company’s part that it is not going to melt away now.
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Hopefully today is the last 2018 day of 30C anywhere near the alps. While short term looks mixed, the trend is clearly down into Oct. And some good signs showing up on the charts around 29 sep - 3 Oct, high pressure regressing back out into atlantic, might keep the cooler northerly air over europe.
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It doesn't really matter at the moment. Come January it will all be white.
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https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/09/another-september-winter-2018-19.html

A little bit of a look into ENSO and how it may pan out for the season ahead.

Also a quick look at potential snowfall for the Eastern Alps on EC.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@scotspikey, but what if summer gave autumn a miss and went straight into winter?


http://youtube.com/v/O7rU2l9WiYo

Plenty of people enjoy the alps oct-dec too.
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@scotspikey, well it matters if you want to ski in October and November. 😉
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davidof wrote:
sazza42 wrote:
I'm currently sitting outside a tent in Bourg St Maurice in my flip flops in the pitch dark - still warm at 9pm. We've been up to 29c today here & only slightly cooler up at Arc 2000 this afternoon.


high forecast to be in the mid thirties in Grenoble tomorrow and another few days of that. I'll be interested to see how the Glaciers have done this year.


Was in Madrid earlier in the week and it was ~35c for a day or two.

Flying over Andorra / Pyrenees was grim. Very little snow on the tops, even for the time of year.
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Good video of the Eiger Glacier in Switzerland this week. Been battered this Summer.

http://www.realclearlife.com/daily-brief/melting-glacier-alps-1946-us-airplane/


http://youtube.com/v/2-YsHoslfEE
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Storm warnings out in Austria for tomorrow night. Gusts of up to 120kmh and snow line dropping to 1200m (though not currently looking especially snowy).
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polo wrote:
Hopefully today is the last 2018 day of 30C anywhere near the alps.


Unfortunately not. Friday peaked at 32C in the valleys in the French Northern Alps. Today was a bit fresher, except the Southern Alps where temperatures reached 34C.

Looks like being up to 30C tomorrow but after that a bit cooler - low to mid 20s.
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Few papers picking up on possible coldest winter sice 2010 today.

Its not warm summers are followed by harsh winters.
My memory is dry summers are followed by harsh winters.

We had a dry summer this year, prob more ghsn last...
Roll on winter where arguments like brexit can be put behind us for a short while NehNeh Laughing
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davidof wrote:
polo wrote:
Hopefully today is the last 2018 day of 30C anywhere near the alps.


Unfortunately not. Friday peaked at 32C in the valleys in the French Northern Alps. Today was a bit fresher, except the Southern Alps where temperatures reached 34C.

Looks like being up to 30C tomorrow but after that a bit cooler - low to mid 20s.


Does a warm late summer mean anything about the forthcoming winter? Apart from the fact the glaciers suffer....
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@Mr.Egg, those headlines are driven by a complete charlatan called James Madden. I’d give them a wide berth.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2015/apr/09/daily-express-weather-warning-beware-a-shower-of-extreme-inaccuracy

@kitenski, doesn’t mean anything significant.
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Could be a problem with lack of water for snow making although a wet autumn could quickly turn that around.
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The local farming community here are talking of a mild but wet winter. Water levels are definitely lower than last year, and we had snow at altitude here last year which is notably absent this year.
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I think @Peter S has the measure here. The weather can rapidly change. As for local farming communities they don’t really have any particular greater skill at long term forecasting than anyone else. Obviously if the weather were to remain dry then the existing low water levels in many places would have the potential to become problematic. But then we are back to the low levels of skill in gauging longer term weather forecasts.
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