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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Both ECM and GFS have shifted over last few runs to pretty dry, but cold and sunny weather as the general set up.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
Both ECM and GFS have shifted over last few runs to pretty dry, but cold and sunny weather as the general set up.


Sold! Receipt please! snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
So the rest of January looks relatively settled and dry - which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so ...

Any indications that this may change in FI?
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Quote:

which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so

No it isn't! I'm heading out on Saturday, I want fresh snow!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
And the South still in need of a freshen up especially from Friday next week!! Anything on the radar for Serre Che?
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Que sera sera
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I skied Serre Che yesterday and definitely needs fresh snow. Icy pistes everywhere with a few runs closed. Sill enjoyed the day but had better days there.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
franga wrote:
So the rest of January looks relatively settled and dry - which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so ...



Definitely not great from my perspective! More snow please!
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Snow is better for sure. It is amazing how the forecasts can be so fickle. As has been said so many times you cannot bank on anything more than three days out. The ridge of high pressure that is threatened to split the jet stream will spoil the party. There is plenty of moisture coming in from the Atlantic getting blocked by the development of that high. Courchevel tomorrow and wanting POW but getting bluebird by the look of it. Madeye-Smiley
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Something interesting (and unexpected, for me) showing up on GFS (operational run).

After a few fairly dry runs for the next week, the 6Z has other ideas. Mediterranean low bringing heavy snow (and fairly low temperatures) to the southern French / southern Italian Alps on Sunday, extending to the entire Italian and southern Swiss Alps early next week. Drier for Austrian, northern French and northern Swiss Alps, but still potential for some snow spilling north across the Alpine ridge.

The sweet spot may be even further south - the Apennine resorts in central Italy (Abetone etc.) could do especially well.

It's just one run so certainly shouldn't be taken as gospel for now, but the sudden shift is very interesting. If it verifies, it would bring snow to all the Alpine areas which need it most, with less for the areas which already have plenty.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Wed 16-01-19 13:43; edited 1 time in total
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denfinella wrote:
Something interesting (and unexpected, for me) showing up on GFS.

After a few fairly dry runs for the next week, the 6Z has other ideas. Mediterranean low bringing heavy snow (and fairly low temperatures) to the southern French / southern Italian Alps on Sunday, extending to the entire Italian and southern Swiss Alps early next week. Drier for Austrian, northern French and northern Swiss Alps, but still potential for some snow spilling north across the Alpine ridge.

The sweet spot may be even further south - the Apennine resorts in central Italy (Abetone etc.) could do especially well.

It's just one run so certainly shouldn't be taken as gospel for now, but the sudden shift is very interesting. If it verifies, it would bring snow to all the Alpine areas which need it most, with less for the areas which already have plenty.


Yes it is a sudden shift in the GFS operational run. Currently it doesn't have much support in the ensembles but worth keepin an eye on it. Incidentally, last nights UK met office chart for MOnday/Tuesday also has a Med low over Sardinia heading North. So could be GFS is playing catch up.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
leggyblonde wrote:
Quote:

which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so

No it isn't! I'm heading out on Saturday, I want fresh snow!


heading to mayrhofen on saturday . blue skies are just fine with me . plenty of snow .
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Spreng Meister at work in Pfunds with a controlled avalanche.

https://www.facebook.com/tiroltv/videos/1880778005383021


Really is the most beautiful day today.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Dashed wrote:
franga wrote:
So the rest of January looks relatively settled and dry - which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so ...



Definitely not great from my perspective! More snow please!

Yeah. So much for the promise of an unsettled second half of January for the western alps. Note to self: in the future go to Austria.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Dashed wrote:
franga wrote:
So the rest of January looks relatively settled and dry - which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so ...



Definitely not great from my perspective! More snow please!

Yeah. So much for the promise of an unsettled second half of January for the western alps. Note to self: in the future go to Austria.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Ptspeak wrote:
Dashed wrote:
franga wrote:
So the rest of January looks relatively settled and dry - which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so ...



Definitely not great from my perspective! More snow please!

Yeah. So much for the promise of an unsettled second half of January for the western alps. Note to self: in the future go to Austria.


Or go in March, you get an extra 4+ weeks on top of December and January for the snow to arrive Smile
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
jimmybog wrote:
Ptspeak wrote:
Dashed wrote:
franga wrote:
So the rest of January looks relatively settled and dry - which is great if you're heading out in the next couple of weeks or so ...



Definitely not great from my perspective! More snow please!

Yeah. So much for the promise of an unsettled second half of January for the western alps. Note to self: in the future go to Austria.


Or go in March, you get an extra 4+ weeks on top of December and January for the snow to arrive Smile

I am actually. Val d'isere In 2 weeks. 3V(1850) in March.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
Snowfall figures for France over next 24 hours at 1800 meters.

Chartreuse 30cm
Belledonne 30cm
Grandes Rousses 25cm
Vercors 15cm
Beaufortain: 75cm Shocked (HIGH avalanche risk)
Haute-Tarentaise: 75cm
Bauges 45 cm
Haute-Maurienne: 25cm
Chablais: 70cm (HIGH avalanche risk)
MontBlanc: 75 cm (HIGH avalanche risk)
Aravis: 70cm (HIGH risk)
Southern Alpes: dusting


This is what actually fell, at 1800 meters, on average (figures from Meteo France). Note the snowline fluctuated between 1000-1500 meters, snow-depths are still poor below 1500m.

Chartreuse 35
Belledonne 30 (Chamrousse, les 7 Laux)
Vercors 28 (Villard des Lans)
Grandes Rousse 14 (Alpe d'Huez)
Oisans 14 (les Deux Alpes)
Thabor 8
Southern French Alps: (Serre Chavalier) dry as a witches tit

Chablais 60 (Flaine, Avoriaz)
Aravis 60 (la Clusaz)
Mont Blanc 75 (Chamonix, Megeve)

Beaufortain 75 (les Saisies)
Bauges 45 (le Revard)
Vanoise 40 (Trois Vallees)
Haute-Tarentaise 77 (Val d'Isere, Tignes, la Plagne, les Arcs)
Haute-Maurienne 18 (Val Cenis)
Maurienne 33 (les Sybelles)

Once again, little les Saisies and the Espace Diamant having an excellent season, relatively. They picked up similar snow depths a few days before. Chablais, Aravis, Mont Blanc and Haute-Tarentaise also looking good. The high altitude mega-domains of the Haute-Tarentaise should be in good shape now.
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12z GFS again plays low pressure into the Mediterranean. This would be snowy for the south side (and Scotland). Be interesting to see where ECM goes later...

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Holding out hope for this. Off to Passo Tonale in Italy on the 26th and it looks like it's been a pretty poor snow winter there so far. Greedy Austrians have been hogging all the snow.
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@nozawaonsen, looking at your model tignes/3v/Paradiski look to be getting a decent snowfall. However sites like Snow-Forecast don’t agree. Is they because they are behind these models or they take their data from elsewhere
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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clarky999 wrote:
Some snowfall numbers starting to come out... 7m in 7 days at Seegrube (Nordkette mid-station, 1900m): https://www.krone.at/1844008

That's insane. That beats the highest monthly totals I can find for places like Niseko, Baker, JH, Alta, Whistler.

The only place I can find with reliable stats to beat it is Tamarack in California, which got 990cm at 2100m in 1911.

For reference, 10m over a season would normally be considered a good winter.



Good spot.

Austria (Innsbruck) in Jan 2019 may have set a new world record for the most snowfall in a week.

Note of caution, though.

Capracotta, Italy, near Rome, said in Mar 2015 it had set a new world record for the most snow in 1 day, at 2.6m...

But it's widely believed the real total was <1m, and the locals poked the measuring stick in snowdrifts blown about by the wind, lol.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I think that we are seeing a major shift in the big picture, probably entering a NAO - situation. This will send the low pressures south on the continent for the coming weeks. The implication is that we will have a similar situation as in February/March last year with snow to the west and south and less to the north (but they probably have enough already... ) It will also give relativly cold weather..
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@Woosh, what kind of timeframe for the first systems to come through?

Asking for a, err, friend who's about to book a week from 26th!
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@ChrisWo,

It is uncertain when the low pressures hit, but a likely development might be with a couple of days with less activity and then more intense days. This pattern might repeat itself. My guess: first hit 23/24 of January and the a second hit towards the end of the month. Cold weather for the rest of the month...
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davidof wrote:
The high altitude mega-domains of the Haute-Tarentaise should be in good shape now.
Yes, pretty good.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, hopefully the 12z GFS can come to fruition and kick start the Scottish and English ski seasons!!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
It's snowing in Les Contamines with further showers forecast over the next few days. Good cover on the nursery slope in the village at 1160m. 210cm at 2500m.
Staggering snow in Austria but doesn't look too bad in the French Alps to me
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
There is a lot (!) of snow up here at present. Hochkönig looks stunning bathed in the sunshine. And not many people about...

Cold is the main theme coming through at present. This is the temperature anomaly chart.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
jedster wrote:
......Staggering snow in Austria but doesn't look too bad in the French Alps to me


Not if you're in the Southern French Alps rolling eyes

We're hoping that it's going to be the reverse of Xmas / New Year in that the World and his Wife will not book the Southern Alps for the forthcoming High Season due to lack of snow (they all booked here for Xmas/New Year as we had such good coverage) and that we'll eventually get the snow minus the hordes, but do think we're clutching at straws, as many have already booked and here many are second homeowners with families.

Though suspect the UCPCA Off-Piste courses here might not be that popular currently and driving through La Grave Monday and again Yesterday was like a ghost town!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
GFSENS00-46-7-205
Something seriously weird going on around 25-27 jan. Must be something wrong with the Graphics?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
staffsan wrote:
GFSENS00-46-7-205
Something seriously weird going on around 25-27 jan. Must be something wrong with the Graphics?


Graphics issue!! Just been reading about it on another weather forum!!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
That was an insanely cold 06z GFS...

Arlberg



Outlier for now...
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GSF is going in the direction of EC....
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Cold is good.

It may however be a bit of a shock to my system. I’m currently suffering through an Australian heatwave with multiple days of 40 degrees and over!
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@Woosh, expand please?
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@Alpinebear,

Sending the low pressures deep down south in Europe, giving precipitation to western and southern part of the Alps. And cold weather for a long time.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Woosh wrote:
@Alpinebear,

Sending the low pressures deep down south in Europe, giving precipitation to western and southern part of the Alps. And cold weather for a long time.
Deal.
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Quote:

Some snowfall numbers starting to come out... 7m in 7 days at Seegrube (Nordkette mid-station, 1900m)

God that is bonkers! It's even more incredible for a continental rather than coastal range, isn't it?
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Current weather system has brought 15cm in the north of the French Northern Alps, 5cm in the south. For the Southern Alps Laughing not so much !
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