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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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@EarthWindandWater, the operational run is the one run st the highest resolution. If it has support from the other ensembles then confidence increases it that outcome, if it does not have support from the other ensembles then confidence in that outcome deceased or at least does not increase.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen,
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Off to madonna di campiglio in 2 weeks. 3b meteo in the far reaches is showing temps of minus 22 with a high of minus 9 on arrival day. Surely not? The snow will be like concrete. Is this showing up on the models across the alps?
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The snow should be fine.

Madonna was I think sheltered from all the rain before Christmas so the snow should there should be dry after weeks of low temperatures and very low humidity. Any newly made snow will also be dry.

A cosmetic dusting is always welcome, as long as it doesn’t get in the way of the sunshine Laughing
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@scotspikey, errr, why would low temps mean “snow like concrete”?

Low temps are a good thing.

Anyway, where is 3b showing that? Not for me it isn’t.
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I was going to ask when the photo of the solid ice covered by snow was posted. Low temperatures and low humidity is a good thing, but can it "reverse" the ice layer a little. I know the layers may eventually bond if the conditions are right, but can fluffy stuff on top make the ice jealous and cause it to switch illegance!
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@under a new name, it was this morning. Its dialled back on that thankfully. The FI stuff 2 weeks in advance changes several times a day thankfully. Now saying -2 and snow. Guess it goes to prove its all guesswork thaf far out.
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ZAMG assess that this is a 30-100 year event in terms of quantity of snowfall at 800m.

For the first 10 days of January the following amounts of snow fell.

Hochfilzen 311cm
Bad Mittendorf 280cm
Lofer 170cm
Ramsau am Dachstein 170cm

Clearly this will be a lot more once the next storm passes through.

By Tuesday snow loads on affected buildings are likely to be 50 to 60% of maximum, in some places up to 80%.

For buildings built between 1983 to 2006 load levels may already be exceeded.


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Sat 12-01-19 11:27; edited 1 time in total
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Weather warnings out now for the coming storm in Austria. As well as heavy snow for the usual suspects warnings that wind speeds could reach 80kmh in the low lands and over 100kmh in the mountains.

https://warnungen.zamg.at/html/de/morgen/alle/at/


http://youtube.com/v/RbmS3tQJ7Os
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SLF’s take on the impact of the coming storm on the Swiss side.

”Accompanied by strong to storm-strength northwesterly winds, intensive and persistent snowfall is anticipated. On the northern Alpine Ridge east of the Wildstrubel, in northern Grisons and in Samnaun, approximately 100 cm of fresh snow is expected. The snowfall level will ascend to approximately 1000 m on Sunday, thereafter descend again. Only in the furthermost southern regions will it be predominantly sunny and dry, accompanied by storm-strength northerly winds.

The avalanche danger levels are rising ongoingly without interruption. In the major areas of precipitation, increasingly frequent very large avalanches are expected. Avalanche danger level 4 (large) will presumably be reached during the course of the day on Sunday. In the western regions and in parts of central Grisons, the increase of avalanche danger to level 4 (large) is possible. In the furthermost southern regions, avalanche danger is not expected to change significantly.”
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This on the GFS 06z would be interesting (in that it would cover the Alps North and South in snow).



Of course it’s too far out for now and there is a lot of chopping and changing at that range. But there seem to be quite a few cold runs jockeying for position at that range as the models seek to incorporate the impact or not of the SSW.
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@nozawaonsen, I am correct in assuming that looks mighty cold for the east of the UK as well? Our weather has been very benign as of recent.
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@Ajn12345, that run wasn’t especially cold for the east of the UK, though several recent ones have been including this mornings ECM, at least for the SE.

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Snowfall figures for France over next 24 hours at 1800 meters.

Chartreuse 30cm
Belledonne 30cm
Grandes Rousses 25cm
Vercors 15cm
Beaufortain: 75cm Shocked (HIGH avalanche risk)
Haute-Tarentaise: 75cm
Bauges 45 cm
Haute-Maurienne: 25cm
Chablais: 70cm (HIGH avalanche risk)
MontBlanc: 75 cm (HIGH avalanche risk)
Aravis: 70cm (HIGH risk)
Southern Alpes: dusting

So once again the far northern ranges picking up the best snow. There was a lot of snow transport so expect possibility of skier triggered slabs in anywhere where there has been significant fresh snow (>25cm).
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davidof wrote:
Snowfall figures for France over next 24 hours at 1800 meters.

Chartreuse 30cm
Belledonne 30cm
Grandes Rousses 25cm
Vercors 15cm
Beaufortain: 75cm Shocked (HIGH avalanche risk)
Haute-Tarentaise: 75cm
Bauges 45 cm
Haute-Maurienne: 25cm
Chablais: 70cm (HIGH avalanche risk)
MontBlanc: 75 cm (HIGH avalanche risk)
Aravis: 70cm (HIGH risk)
Southern Alpes: dusting

Which of these does 3V fit into? Nice to see France getting some decent snow at last snowHead
So once again the far northern ranges picking up the best snow. There was a lot of snow transport so expect possibility of skier triggered slabs in anywhere where there has been significant fresh snow (>25cm).
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Courchevel is in the vanoise. Around half a meter expected Very Happy
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Which of those regions covers Portes du Soleil? Ta.
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@andy from embsay, Chablais.
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andy from embsay wrote:
Which of those regions covers Portes du Soleil? Ta.


Non of them I don't think, but could be wrong!
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duncansarmy wrote:
andy from embsay wrote:
Which of those regions covers Portes du Soleil? Ta.


Non of them I don't think, but could be wrong!


Or what nozawaonsen said rolling eyes rolling eyes
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SLF evening update, my bold.

“Weather forecast through Sunday, 13.01.2019

As a result of the strong to storm-velocity northwesterly winds, persistent snowfall is anticipated, most of all during the daytime hours. The snowfall level will be at approximately 600 m to start with. During the course of the day on Sunday, the snowfall level is expected to ascend in northern regions to approximately 1200 m, to approximately 1500 m in the western sector of the northern flank of the Alps. In the furthermost southern regions, it will be quite sunny as a consequence of the northerly winds.

Fresh snow

By Sunday midday, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated above approximately 1500 m:

- Northern Alpine Ridge east of the Wildstrubel: 50 to 80 cm;

- Remaining parts of the eastern Bernese Oberland, central and eastern parts of the Prealps, southern Goms, Prättigau, Silvretta, Samnaun: 40 to 50 cm;

- Remaining regions of Switzerland: 20 to 40 cm over widespread areas; in Ticino south of the Main Alpine Ridge and in the southern valleys of Grisons, less;

Jura region: approximately 20 cm.

Temperature

At 2000 m, temperatures at 2000 m will rise by midday to -3 °C in northern regions and -1 °C in southern regions.

Wind

Winds at high altitudes will be northwesterly, blowing at storm-strength at 2000 m in northern regions, strong to storm-velocity westerly winds; on the southern flank of the Alps, strong-velocity northerly winds.

Outlook through Tuesday, 15.01.2019

Well into the nocturnal hours of Monday night, heavy and persistent snowfall is anticipated, with the precipitation extending down to low lying areas. The northwesterly winds will continue to blow at strong to storm velocity, thereby transporting the fresh fallen snow intensively.Only in the furthermost southern regions will it be predominantly sunny and dry, as a result of the northerly winds. On Tuesday in northeastern regions, a small amount of snowfall is anticipated during the daytime. In the other regions of Switzerland, it will be partly sunny.

Avalanche danger levels are expected to increase significantly once again. In the major areas of precipitation, very large and, in isolated cases, extremely large avalanches are expected.

Presumably over wide-ranging sections of the northern flank of the Alps, of the Valais and Grisons, danger level 4 (high) can be expected. In the northern sector of the Alpine Ridge from Brünig Pass eastwards, not including the Gotthard region, as well as from Prättigau over the Silvretta into Samnaun, an increase even to danger level 5 (very high) is possible.As a consequence of the slackening off of precipitation, the situation is expected to calm incrementally on Tuesday. In the furthermost southern regions the avalanche danger is not expected to change significantly.”
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A take on the EC32 from Marco Petagna (Met Office)

“The latest EC monthly forecast is certainly cottoning on to current and recent warming taking place in the lower #stratosphere indicating much #colder #weather to come in a few weeks....very exciting and interesting events unfolding for those of us who have been following #SSW”

And Matt Hugo.

“#HappyFriday - Overnight EC Monthly is bonkers with major N Atlantic and eventually Greenland blocking by week 2 onwards and with low pressure over and to the S of the UK with a clear signal for E or NE winds into Feb. It's got to verify of course but a consistent fcst that now.”
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@nozawaonsen, just trying to work out from your post of 1425 whether there just might be some snowfall in the Dolomites before the 26th. I'm not asking for another snowmageddon, mind, just some snow during the next two weeks and then sunshine, please. And yes, I know it's too soon to ask. Sorry.
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@Hurtle, definitely maybe.
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@Hurtle, this on 18z would also bring snow to the southern Alps.

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@nozawaonsen, Very Happy Very Happy
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Forecast for Northern French Alps: drip, drip, drip ... boom !!! Drip, drip, drip ... Boom ! Drip drip, drip ... boom !!!

Local weather characteristics will play big in determining where snow will fall. Lake effect snow might be in effect (favors Portes du Soleil) if temperatures stay cold. Bit warmer - and rain it is .

How deep will moisture penetrate into high Alpine valleys ?

Do not be surprised and/or disappointed with "over performing" and "under performing" forecast.

Generally, I like this weather pattern for second half of January, more wintry, not too violent (as in Austria) with alternation of sun and snow.
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A good 10cm in Val d’Isere this morning still lightly snowing
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ECM over the next 10 days, showing how the southern side of the Alps should start to get more of a look

in.
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@nozawaonsen, Benny Hill picture strip - now you’re talking! Thanks for all the weather info, as ever.
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The Western Alps joins the party

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@BobinCH, I recognise that van...

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@nozawaonsen, Wow a magazine that includes the A Team, Dangermouse and Cannon and Ball all in the same issue for only 22p - those were the days! Looking much snowier in France and Switzerland today which is good news for me.
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Ajn12345 wrote:
Looking much snowier in France and Switzerland today which is good news for me.


It sure is! And supposed to get heavier tonight...

http://youtube.com/v/g9DucZYQ0wA
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Little Lackenhof (809m) might be about to go large.

The weather station currently has 190cm of snow there. Since records began in 1919/20 there has only been one January in 1923 with more snow, 210cm. Can Lackenhof set a new record?

Meanwhile ZAMG warn of up to 2m of fresh snow in the Arlberg over next three days.
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and loser is at 5m with 1 to 2m more forecast
https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/LIVE-Drei-Tote-bei-Lawinenabgang-in-Lech/363513284
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lovely snowy weather this global warming is giving us.
Or maybe its to do with the long predicted sun cold spot.
Just like the warm cycle gave us poo-poo snow for 30 years
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@Mr.Egg, you're confusing weather and climate. Again.
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@waynos, yes reading those stats about the Arlberg certainly underlined how abnormal the current weather has been.
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@Mr.Egg, what's poo-poo snow?
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