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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Peter S wrote:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/surface-pressure/

You can see the pressure situation here. High pressure over the uk has hoven some amazing weather where the cloud has cleared, over the last couple of weeks. Humidity has been down towards 30% in many places sucking the moisture out of the ground. Indeed it’s been a remarkably dry 13 months across many parts of the uk particularly the east of Scotland and England.

Looks like pressure will slowly sink south of the uk eventually providing a let up to the snow on Austria next week.

Winter still seems beyond touching distance in the uk at the moment. : rolling eyes


Certainly hasn't been dry in the West of Scotland recently, certainly dry till August then wet again. We even had some fairly heavy snow in early Dec but it didn't last long.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person


Obviously off in FI, but this is GFS splitting the core of the polar vortex...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Nelbert75, it certainly has been...

30cm is a good estimate. It’s certainly welcome but no season changer.
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Whitegold wrote:
France and Italy like concrete.


From where I'm sitting, maybe it's time to press refresh on the webcam?
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Projected snowfall for Switzerland and France (and western Austria - a lot around the Arlberg) on ICON between now and Monday.

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How’s the wind looking for tomorrow in Italian Dolomites? My daughter has a full day of ski school, so I’m looking to do Sella Ronda circuit, hopefully without lift closures
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@AndyB64, a bit blowy, but not too strong.
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Thanks for the reply. It’s been howling today up high, Ijust don’t want to get stranded in the wrong valley
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@AndyB64, to be honest you’ll be better off taking advice from someone in the resort as to what the conditions mean for lift openings.
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It’s looking more positive for the western alps in around 4/5 days time.
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@Ricklovesthepowder, certainly is! Bergfex saying 140cm in cham sun/mon!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Also, am i Reading it wrong or is GFS suggesting some major precipitation starting around 20/21 jan?
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Bergfex now has 40+cm for La Plagne over Sat/Sun - that wasn’t there yesterday!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The storm coming in Sunday Monday looks like providing fresh snow for much of the Alps along with strong winds. It will hit Austria where of course things are pretty overstretched already. A period of relative calm currently looks like setting in for a few days after that.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Handy Turnip wrote:
Bergfex now has 40+cm for La Plagne over Sat/Sun - that wasn’t there yesterday!


and prob wont be in 6 hours Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
The storm coming in Sunday Monday looks like providing fresh snow for much of the Alps along with strong winds. It will hit Austria where of course things are pretty overstretched already. A period of relative calm currently looks like setting in for a few days after that.


before it all kicks off again for the Western Alps Cool snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
snoozeboy wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
France and Italy like concrete.


From where I'm sitting, maybe it's time to press refresh on the webcam?


here you goes

https://www.skaping.com/alpedhuez/pic-blanc
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
snoozeboy wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
France and Italy like concrete.


From where I'm sitting, maybe it's time to press refresh on the webcam?


here you goes

https://www.skaping.com/alpedhuez/pic-blanc


I meant, for whitegold's benefit. From where I was sitting there was 20cm falling at village level as whitegold was typing. Maybe he was talking about France, Texas or something.
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The overnight GFS operational run was an outlier for a few locations with regards to precipitation. I expect some of the increased forecast snow amounts (that use the GFS model) are down to this.
It could end up being correct but right now its not fully supported in places like the Arlberg and Chamonix. In SKi Amade region, it actually does have quite a bit of support though.
However, saying that, the ECMWF overnight, for the same period, looks very similar to the GFS at +96 hour. If these runs end up correct, Austria will be getting buried again!!
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GFS 06z not seeing large snowfall for France this weekend, but is for Austria Sunday and Monday.

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@nozawaonsen, That looks good for the Dolomite's also or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
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Grandma Sunshine wrote:
@nozawaonsen, That looks good for the Dolomite's also or is that just wishful thinking on my part?


Looks ok for the Northern Dolomite resorts such as Val gardena, Arraba, Ata Badia; slightly better further north such as Kronplatz and 3 Peaks. Main snow will be nearest to the Alpne ridge so somewhere like Steinhaus will benefit

Latest regional forecast currently only mentioning light snowfall sunday/monday in the Arraba area.

http://www.arpa.veneto.it/previsioni/it/html/meteo_dolomiti.php
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Mr.Egg wrote:
Handy Turnip wrote:
Bergfex now has 40+cm for La Plagne over Sat/Sun - that wasn’t there yesterday!


and prob wont be in 6 hours Laughing


Yep already down to 30cm!
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GFS 06z showing 50cm for Les Gets village, France, sun-mon

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions-neige/27685/les_gets.htm
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lots already, lots on the way https://www.bergfex.at/loser/wetter/berg/
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polo wrote:
GFS 06z showing 50cm for Les Gets village, France, sun-mon

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions-neige/27685/les_gets.htm


This has probably been discussed before, but wondered how the precipitation is translated/converted from what is presumably rainfall measurement into snowfall?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
aceandy79 wrote:
polo wrote:
GFS 06z showing 50cm for Les Gets village, France, sun-mon

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions-neige/27685/les_gets.htm


This has probably been discussed before, but wondered how the precipitation is translated/converted from what is presumably rainfall measurement into snowfall?


I believe it is approx 1 foot rain = 1 inch of snow.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
buchanan101 wrote:
aceandy79 wrote:
polo wrote:
GFS 06z showing 50cm for Les Gets village, France, sun-mon

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions-neige/27685/les_gets.htm


This has probably been discussed before, but wondered how the precipitation is translated/converted from what is presumably rainfall measurement into snowfall?


I believe it is approx 1 foot rain = 1 inch of snow.


Other way around, no?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
staffsan wrote:
buchanan101 wrote:
aceandy79 wrote:
polo wrote:
GFS 06z showing 50cm for Les Gets village, France, sun-mon

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions-neige/27685/les_gets.htm


This has probably been discussed before, but wondered how the precipitation is translated/converted from what is presumably rainfall measurement into snowfall?


I believe it is approx 1 foot rain = 1 inch of snow.


Other way around, no?


oops!!!

yes!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Or in metric 1mm rain = roughly 1cm snow. It isn't exact as there are other variables in play but it is the best general approximation.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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nemesys wrote:
Or in metric -1mm rain = roughly 1cm snow. It isn't exact as there are other variables in play but it is the best general approximation.


or at the moment 1m of rain = 10m of snow...
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Thanks @buchanan101, @staffsan, @nemesys,
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nozawaonsen wrote:



At 1600 meters in the Belledonne today you'd be lucky to find more than 10cm of fresh snow. It is a dusting but good for piste skiing.

Here are the averages for each range at 1800 meters.

Chablais: 35cm Very Happy
Vercors: 30cm Very Happy
Aravis: 25cm Very Happy
Chartreuse: 25cm
Mont-Blanc: 20cm Very Happy
Haute-Tarentaise: 20cm Very Happy
Beaufortain: 15cm
Vanoise: 15cm
Haute-Maurienne: 10cm
Bauges: 10cm Mad
Belledonne: 10cm Mad
Grandes Rousses: 5cm Mad
Oisans: 5cm Mad
Southern Alps: niet

Very Happy - did well or better than expected
Mad - not so good


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 10-01-19 17:40; edited 3 times in total
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@davidof, is anywhere closish to Geneva forecast to get decent fresh snow before Wed/Thurs next week? got a potential meeting in Geneva on Fri 18th....
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kitenski wrote:
@davidof, is anywhere closish to Geneva forecast to get decent fresh snow before Wed/Thurs next week? got a potential meeting in Geneva on Fri 18th....


Don't you think they've had more than their fair share ? Happy

More snow expected early in the week. Given the 35cm in the French mountains around the lake it is looking ok now I would have thought.
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@davidof, still going to be mostly piste skiing though?? Not sure it's worth it for a day, having just had a week in Les Arcs! May have to be sensible for once!!
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Good to see fresh snow in parts of the French Alps.

Just to be clear that chart wasn’t mine but from https://www.meteoalpes.fr
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70cm of new snow at 2332m in Murren in Switzerland Wink
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@nozawaonsen - with the next blizzard starting Saturday p.m., what would be your guesstimate of the possible new snow to fall on, please?:
Lech
Zurs
St Anton
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@Snow&skifan, I would anticipate 1m to 1.5m with storm force winds for the Arlberg. The wind is particular is likely to make things difficult.
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