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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@mrvinegar, i guess you should look at the levels of precipitation? At least when sub-zero temps.
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@nozawaonsen, Is Serre Chevaller classed as Southern Alps ?? or Southern NW Alps !! will be there 20th for a week.
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thunderer wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Is Serre Chevaller classed as Southern Alps ?? or Southern NW Alps !! will be there 20th for a week.


It is in the Southern Alps, it has different weather patterns as it is protected by high mountains. To give you an idea snow is forecast for la Grave tomorrow but just over the Lauteret at Serre Chevalier it will be sunny. A distance of a few km. Because it is close to both the N.A. and Italy it can pick up some weak overflow from both sectors - hence the "microclimate" claims which are somewhat justified.

Outlook is sunny until the end of the weekend, maybe some more significant snow next week. It hasn't snowed in the sector since the 21st of December and there have been very strong winds which have removed any loose snow.

Weathercam, Helen or Kenx can tell you about the situation - they can JLOTW for example. From what I've seen and been told by people I know who ski there reguarly they are doing better than the Northern French Alps in terms of snow depths as they didn't get blitzed by the high altitude rain and picked up the retour d'est early season. Weathercam's video from yesterday looked very pleasant.
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mrvinegar wrote:
@nozawaonsen What should I be looking out for in those charts ? General "disturbance", or is there something specific that means snow?


The bottom white line (with right hand Y axis as units) is predicted precipitation over time (average of models I think). The further into the future (towards the right) , the less accurate the prediction
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risb98 wrote:
mrvinegar wrote:
@nozawaonsen What should I be looking out for in those charts ? General "disturbance", or is there something specific that means snow?


The bottom white line (with right hand Y axis as units) is predicted precipitation over time (average of models I think). The further into the future (towards the right) , the less accurate the prediction


Thanks, and is the centre line temperature?
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Austrian mountain rescue teams concerned warnings over avalanche risk are falling on “deaf ears” and urge people to take more caution and urge restraint.

https://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2957200/
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Out in the far reaches of fantasy, does this ensemble give me a slight chink of light that madonna di campiglio may recieve the cosmetic dusting I crave before heading out on the 26th?

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@scotspikey, or Alleghe, or Arabba!
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@scotspikey, if you want more straws, then the latest EC monthly anomalies suggest Jan weeks 3 and 4 will be above average precipitation (and cold) for the southern alps.

Week 2 actually coming out milder than average for most of europe, then 3 and 4 go cold again, with precipitation heavy in the west and south.

Probably not worth a lot that far away, but nice to have in the hope locker.

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/
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Looking like some much needed precipitation for France then snowHead Have faith


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Tue 8-01-19 14:01; edited 1 time in total
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mrvinegar wrote:
risb98 wrote:
mrvinegar wrote:
@nozawaonsen What should I be looking out for in those charts ? General "disturbance", or is there something specific that means snow?


The bottom white line (with right hand Y axis as units) is predicted precipitation over time (average of models I think). The further into the future (towards the right) , the less accurate the prediction


Thanks, and is the centre line temperature?


yes, red line is 30yr average, white line is predicted temp.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@risb98, as mrvinegar said, the white line is the average of the ensembles.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Lol - this will be a laugh - me trying to explain it!

The lines in the middle of the chart are the temperature forecasts of the various runs they have done, changing one or 2 parameters each time and read off the right hand side y axis.
The lines along the bottom are the associated precipitation and measured off the LHS y axis.
If you agreement between all the runs that there will be precipitation and the temp is below zero that would indicate snow.

Am I slavering??
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I've noticed that in Obergurgl the majority of lifts and pistes are closed due to weather. We are looking at a week of skiing from 26th Jan. In your opinions, do you think we are safe to book now and the majority of lifts / pistes be open, or should we look at going back to chamonix (albeit they don't seem to have had much snow yet). TIA Dave
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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So, how are the forecasts holding up regarding the Atlantic high moving west and the alps getting a more NW flow? Would somebody please say something comforting for a anxious Cham-lover?
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@daveyc2k2, way too early to talk about the weather then, but if you're concerned by it, why not look at a different resort in Tirol/Ötztal? It's not like snow is going to be a problem, even in the lowest resorts wink
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@clarky999 any resorts you'd recommend? Preferably no more than 2 hour transfer from the airport
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Quick summary of ORF article below.

Concern growing in Austria of a catastrophic situation not seen in decades. Between Wednesday and Friday 60cm of snow in the valleys and 120m of snow in the mountains is expected in Tirol, mostly in areas already worst affected. The army is calling up more helicopters, a crisis group had met and exposed roads are likely to be closed. Some valleys may be closed for several days.

https://tirol.orf.at/news/stories/2957280/


1999 we were skiing in Hochgurgl at the start of a seemingly 6 week long blizzard throughout the entire alps. Many lives were lost including in Galtur of course and in a village near Chamonix. I remember the recorded (compacted) piste depth at many places such as Flaine and St Anton reaching 6 metres at the highest sites.
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leggyblonde wrote:
@risb98, as mrvinegar said, the white line is the average of the ensembles.

agree, that is what I meant to say.....
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It would seem that the GFS "wigglies" for Flaine are showing more and more precipitation with each run for 13th - 15th, is this backed up by any of the other models?
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@daveyc2k2, almost certainly the lifts are closed because of wind. You can't really build a holiday around that risk in advance unless you're looking just a few days ago.

However, the lower resorts are generally less affected by wind. So where I am today the lower lifts are all open. As clarkey says there is lots of snow now so lower resorts will be fine, but I always like to be well about freezing line for powder.

But I wouldn't be concerned about wind causing problems this far in advance.
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Thanks very much. We are considering Zell Am See and it would be a saving of approx £1k, so may go for that instead. Although I liked the idea of ski-in ski-out at Obergurgl
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daveyc2k2 wrote:
I've noticed that in Obergurgl the majority of lifts and pistes are closed due to weather. We are looking at a week of skiing from 26th Jan. In your opinions, do you think we are safe to book now and the majority of lifts / pistes be open, or should we look at going back to chamonix (albeit they don't seem to have had much snow yet). TIA Dave


Obergurgl/Hochgurgl is as high as it gets in Austria resort wise so is prone to stormy weather. As Clarky says you can go anywhere with all this snow. Theres loads of resorts, what kind of group, level of sliding and what you want apreś wise will help us advise you.
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robboj wrote:
daveyc2k2 wrote:
I've noticed that in Obergurgl the majority of lifts and pistes are closed due to weather. We are looking at a week of skiing from 26th Jan. In your opinions, do you think we are safe to book now and the majority of lifts / pistes be open, or should we look at going back to chamonix (albeit they don't seem to have had much snow yet). TIA Dave


Obergurgl/Hochgurgl is as high as it gets in Austria resort wise so is prone to stormy weather. As Clarky says you can go anywhere with all this snow. Theres loads of resorts, what kind of group, level of sliding and what you want apreś wise will help us advise you.


Thank you. It is only my wife and I. I would say we are intermediate skiers but do not do any off-piste. In terms of apres, we are pretty easy going. We enjoyed the buzz of Chamonix but also enjoyed the serenity of Niederau a couple of times (although Niederau was a bit tame for skiing).
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Parts of Upper Styria will be declared level 5 avalanche risk from 1800 for the first time in 10 years.

In some cases buildings may need to be evacuated.

Snow depths in the mountains in Styria are now at the highest for early January in the last 15 years.

https://steiermark.orf.at/news/stories/2957427/

Salzburg civil defence is warning people in the countryside that valleys could be cut off and supplies to shops could be limited. Also asking them to consider what they would do in the event of power cuts.
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GFS 12z opens the gates to snow on the west in second half of January... (in fact the whole northern Alps).



Meanwhile still reckoning on a lot more in the east before then.

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Noza - please stop with all this snow! I want to be able to get to Ischgl and to be able to ski.... (Assuming Arlberg isn't quite as badly hit as Styria and Salzburg area?)
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Google Maps shows some closures with traffic on: I can see Hochgurgl road is closed. Looks bad east of Maria Alm. Fair bit of slow roads (unsurprisingly)

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.0597313,10.7689919,10z/data=!5m1!1e1
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Avi level 5 around dachstein (north side I think)

http://lawine-steiermark.at/
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
buchanan101 wrote:
Google Maps shows some closures with traffic on: I can see Hochgurgl road is closed. Looks bad east of Maria Alm. Fair bit of slow roads (unsurprisingly)

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.0597313,10.7689919,10z/data=!5m1!1e1


Ah that’s a shame. What connection it has with the general weather outlook for skiing in the northern hemisphere winter you’ll have to explain however Puzzled
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All the main artery roads will be kept open, any closures will be short. Some valleys will get cut off but rarely and only for a day or two. Probably not worth worrying about and probably not far from another resort that's on the artery kept open.
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Nelbert75 wrote:
buchanan101 wrote:
Google Maps shows some closures with traffic on: I can see Hochgurgl road is closed. Looks bad east of Maria Alm. Fair bit of slow roads (unsurprisingly)

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.0597313,10.7689919,10z/data=!5m1!1e1


Ah that’s a shame. What connection it has with the general weather outlook for skiing in the northern hemisphere winter you’ll have to explain however Puzzled


Well, it is a closure, of a road, to a ski resort, caused by a weather event, specifically a weather event of interest and indeed necessary to anyone who wants to go skiing. And the general weather outlook for skiing in the Northern hemisphere, and specifically readers of this thread, is quite focussed on austria right now.
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Hi looking for good news for snow forecasts for Les Giettaz from 20th Jan. first time skiing in a lower altitude resort and beginning to regret the choice Puzzled
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8611
"the general weather outlook for skiing in the Northern hemisphere, and specifically readers of this thread, is quite focussed on austria right now"

Indeed so - but there are other interests here abouts.

Balance & moderation in all things Very Happy - now - about France . . . . .
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kapt wrote:
8611
...now - about France . . . . .


Yes, please?
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If people want to talk about other areas, and other aspects of the weather, maybe they could start that conversation by contributing something about it themselves..?
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clarky999 wrote:
If people want to talk about other areas, and other aspects of the weather, maybe they could start that conversation by contributing something about it themselves..?

I'm not a weather expert.
I find this site an invaluable resource.
I respect opinions.
Anything else. . . ???
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staffsan wrote:
kapt wrote:
8611
...now - about France . . . . .


Yes, please?


In my part of the French nw alps it has been a day of intermittent snow, which improved things throughout the day. It has now set in for the evening. All good. I have no idea if any roads are closed , and I don’t care wink
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daveyc2k2 wrote:
robboj wrote:
daveyc2k2 wrote:
I've noticed that in Obergurgl the majority of lifts and pistes are closed due to weather. We are looking at a week of skiing from 26th Jan. In your opinions, do you think we are safe to book now and the majority of lifts / pistes be open, or should we look at going back to chamonix (albeit they don't seem to have had much snow yet). TIA Dave


Obergurgl/Hochgurgl is as high as it gets in Austria resort wise so is prone to stormy weather. As Clarky says you can go anywhere with all this snow. Theres loads of resorts, what kind of group, level of sliding and what you want apreś wise will help us advise you.


Thank you. It is only my wife and I. I would say we are intermediate skiers but do not do any off-piste. In terms of apres, we are pretty easy going. We enjoyed the buzz of Chamonix but also enjoyed the serenity of Niederau a couple of times (although Niederau was a bit tame for skiing).


Obergurgl would suit you well unless you want loads of different kms to cover, if your happy skiing the same pistes each day then its a definite option. If your on a budget then not so much choice but if 4 & 5 star hotels and half board accommodation is your thing then there lots of choices. Great apreś in the famous Nederhutte but only til 7pm then its back to the hotels for dinner and drinks. I go there often an like it but its big attraction is its relatively snowsuredness which is kinda redundant this year. Otherwise jeez, where to start, Saalbach for sure. Zell am See and Kitzbühel for the buzz of actual towns that are year round resorts.
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Back to the weather...

This is how Meteo Alpes sees the breakdown for snowfall for France tomorrow.



https://www.meteoalpes.fr/2019/01/08/episode-neigeux-jusqu-%C3%A0-tr%C3%A8s-basse-altitude/
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