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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sunday 6th. Westendorf ,Austria to Munich airport, 2hrs 15 minutes. Is was quite wet snow in the village at that point temp +1C, -8C at the top and pounding down from the feed back I got from mates yesterday. Conditions had been as close to powder as I have ever gotten on the Thursday, Friday.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Sorry to be a killjoy and appreciate the excitement in Austria but isn’t this page

‘The 18/19 weather outlook thread ‘

Shouldn’t Austrian Travel and snow conditions be on another thread .
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Rob Mackley, travel conditions might be a separate subject but I think snow condition reports can be useful in verifying (or otherwise!) the forecasts.
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Rob Mackley wrote:
Sorry to be a killjoy and appreciate the excitement in Austria but isn’t this page

‘The 18/19 weather outlook thread ‘

Shouldn’t Austrian Travel and snow conditions be on another thread .


Agree completely. Last few pages have become a mish mash of people's Austrian travel issues, arguments over the meaning of snow sure and other such things that are well off topic.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Rob Mackley, +1
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Nelbert75 wrote:
Rob Mackley wrote:
Sorry to be a killjoy and appreciate the excitement in Austria but isn’t this page

‘The 18/19 weather outlook thread ‘

Shouldn’t Austrian Travel and snow conditions be on another thread .


Agree completely. Last few pages have become a mish mash of people's Austrian travel issues, arguments over the meaning of snow sure and other such things that are well off topic.


I've always liked the very general interpretation of 'topic' on here. It's part of the appeal compared to most sites where the kind of people whose grip on authority should've ended at 'milk monitor' like to wield their power. Little Angel snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
robboj wrote:


I've always liked the very general interpretation of 'topic' on here. It's part of the appeal compared to most sites where the kind of people whose grip on authority should've ended at 'milk monitor' like to wield their power. Little Angel snowHead


+1; Does it really matter?
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Agree and disagree. This thread is about the weather and what is going on in austria is pretty phenomenal. Plus a lot of posters are here. The effects of the weather are of interest. Annoying though it may be. And, in my experience, people look at this thread with a view to seeing how conditions are and, in my case, with a view to going powder chasing so information re travel and conditions in the areas is of use to some.

But clearly not very closely on topic. Is snow heads ever on topic though?
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It'll start snowing on Wednesday in the French Alps. Trickle at first and by the 20th it will be the daily dose of 10-20cm for a week or so.

No big dumps, just pretty snow falling ... Unfortunately, lower French resorts might see some rain.

So, snow for Val D'Isere, Les Arcs and Les 3 Vallees, some rain for PdS and Megeve/St.Gervais and snow for Chamonix higher up.

hard to judge rain/snow line but it looks like 1300-1500m
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Is it on topic to argue whether the thread is on topic, or should we get a new thread for that? wink
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Scarlet wrote:
Is it on topic to argue whether the thread is on topic, or should we get a new thread for that? wink




Meanwhile, in Les Contamines, pistes remain firm but very skiable.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Cheapski wrote:
It'll start snowing on Wednesday in the French Alps. Trickle at first and by the 20th it will be the daily dose of 10-20cm for a week or so.

No big dumps, just pretty snow falling ... Unfortunately, lower French resorts might see some rain.

So, snow for Val D'Isere, Les Arcs and Les 3 Vallees, some rain for PdS and Megeve/St.Gervais and snow for Chamonix higher up.

hard to judge rain/snow line but it looks like 1300-1500m


So 10-20cm a day for a week in 2 weeks time? Magic tea leaves? Shock
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Rob Mackley wrote:
Sorry to be a killjoy and appreciate the excitement in Austria but isn’t this page

‘The 18/19 weather outlook thread ‘

Shouldn’t Austrian Travel and snow conditions be on another thread .


Honestly, I don't think so.

I think it's pretty logical that a weather thread on a ski forum will be used to decide where to go skiing, and conditions/travel reports are pretty essential information to 1. verify the accuracy forecasts and 2. better inform the 'where' decisions. Personally I try to stay pretty factual/not brag about the skiing on this thread (apologies if it sometimes comes across otherwise!) and go into more depth on the Innsbruck thread, but as the owner/starter of the thread and probably SH's most valuable contributer has also felt it worthwhile to share conditions/travel information on here, I don't think it's unreasonable for others to do so too.

And personally I find that information very useful/interesting from other parts of the Alps/world too - for me that's what makes this thread one of the most valuable skiing resources online every season (and often spurs me to check out the various local threads for deeper info about a particular location). There are plenty of weather forums out there for those who want to purely discuss weather without any practical application for skiing, but nowhere quite like this thread for widespread on the ground reports!

So unless nozawaonsen asks people not to share that sort of info here, personally I hope everyone continues to do so!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@NoDosh,
Quote:
Is it on topic to argue whether the thread is on topic, or should we get a new thread for that? Laughing

I think you chose the wrong meme image - should have used this ...


youtube.com/v/Lvcnx6-0GhA

(...no you shouldn't)
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Yes, starting later next week we could easily end up with a week of steady stream of moisture that could produce 10cm of snow on a daily basis. Of course, temperature and altitude will determine where this might take place. Warmer it gets - denser, heavy wet snow - not good. Colder it gets - fluffy goodness will fall. But moisture is there, how it will manifest itself is still to be seen.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
PeterGee wrote:
Agree - have been so excited about going to Saalbach at the weekend. Now worried about a week long white out!


Don’t worry! It has been almost perfect here today. The light is flat but the visibility is absolutely fine.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Rob Mackley wrote:
Sorry to be a killjoy and appreciate the excitement in Austria but isn’t this page

‘The 18/19 weather outlook thread ‘

Shouldn’t Austrian Travel and snow conditions be on another thread .


no,
now next week when the western patterns take over from the east, we will be talking about french weather
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@clarky999, Really appreciate your input to this thread. Keep it coming.
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clarky999 wrote:


So unless nozawaonsen asks people not to share that sort of info here, personally I hope everyone continues to do so!


I hadn't realized this thread was Noza's!
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Still no sign of the snow stopping in the East on the GFS 12z... (Kitzbuhel)
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.48987854251013&lon=12.452830188679243

But some reason to be more optimistic in the West from the 14th Jan, (Tignes)
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.465587044534416&lon=6.7924528301886795

Not a great deal showing for the Dolomites still... (Bolzano)
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46.518218623481786&lon=11.60377358490566
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Nelbert75 wrote:
Rob Mackley wrote:
Sorry to be a killjoy and appreciate the excitement in Austria but isn’t this page

‘The 18/19 weather outlook thread ‘

Shouldn’t Austrian Travel and snow conditions be on another thread .


Agree completely. Last few pages have become a mish mash of people's Austrian travel issues, arguments over the meaning of snow sure and other such things that are well off topic.


Also agree completely. Each to his/her own - but that's my view.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Here‘s a good little video from the Met Office showing the impact of the Omega Block.

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1080464708350734336?s=21

This is the current set up and is leading to cold air and snow pouring down into the Alps.



Because the high pressure sits a little to the east it means that the snowfall is mainly to the eastern side of the Alps. And because the snow is being driven down from the north it is driving into the northern side of the Alps, hence Austria has been seeing the snow piling up.

If (obviously big if this point) GFS is right then high pressure shifts back to the Azores from mid month.



This would create more of a NWerly flow.



This would bring snow across the Northern Alps including heavy snow for the northern side of the French Alps.

Of course time will tell if this plays out.

And you‘d need to see cross model support from eg ECM so...

Oh. Hello!



So that’s interesting!

Meanwhile snow in Austria till at least 20 January on this evening’s output.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Looking at going away for week on the 19th, judging by recent conditions I have looked at Austria but seems I am struggling to find anything that suits. Meanwhile in France there are loads of good deals to be had.

Based on current forecasts for later this week into next, will this be enough to replenish the pistes and therefore take a gamble to book somewhere high in France? I.e. 3V, EK etc?

Or is it a wait and see if anything comes of the forecast snow?
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What doesn't suit about austria? Have you thought about DIY well set up over here between munich salzburg and innsbruck

Snow will be great for a good while and otherwise low resorts very skiable. Save the high ones for bad snow years?

Suggestion as per above are that france may get replenished soon so you won't do badly either way

To be honest too much snow for 90 per cent of skiers in austria right now
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@nozawaonsen, would this scenario also lead to snow in the Southern alps ?
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@thunderer, not particularly, weather coming from the North West would tend to favour the northern Alps.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I might be that "phantomlunger" is suggesting that it is not very easy finding suitable and affordable accommodation in Austria right now. Once this storm is over - hordes of "powder seekers" will descend on Austria and if I were a hotel owner I would charge big time premium, nothing wrong with that.

OTOH, France and Italy are offering some bargains for mid January.

Thus, weather watching is well warranted - it might save you some money that could be used for March or April ski trip ...

First world problem !
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, is the forecast looking to give fresh snowfall to Paradiski at any point in the next 2 weeks?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quick summary of ORF article below.

Concern growing in Austria of a catastrophic situation not seen in decades. Between Wednesday and Friday 60cm of snow in the valleys and 120m of snow in the mountains is expected in Tirol, mostly in areas already worst affected. The army is calling up more helicopters, a crisis group had met and exposed roads are likely to be closed. Some valleys may be closed for several days.

https://tirol.orf.at/news/stories/2957280/


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Mon 7-01-19 20:23; edited 1 time in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Ricklovesthepowder, should get 20-30cm midweek.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Cheapski, very much doubt they'd change their prices on basis of conditions, or that hordes will come. Most people in ski resorts have booked long in advance.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
And I thought I had problems digging my car out this weekend...

https://www.facebook.com/565699353523047/posts/2067772446649056/
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
And I thought I had problems digging my car out this weekend...

https://www.facebook.com/565699353523047/posts/2067772446649056/
Shocked

That is a lot of snow. Drifted to that depth or blown in by a plough?
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8611 wrote:
@Cheapski, very much doubt they'd change their prices on basis of conditions, or that hordes will come. Most people in ski resorts have booked long in advance.


Certainly agree that the conditions won’t significantly impact prices, but many Dutch and Germans make late decisions to descend on Austria when snow conditions are favourable and are happy to forego their ski trips if conditions are poor.
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@clarky999, totally agree. The extent of the snowfall in Austria in recent weeks is very notable / interesting from a weather perspective particularly given how dry the Western Alps have been.
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How it looks on 18z...

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A good piece from the LWD Tirol blog.

“More than 200 cm of fresh snow has been registered [on Nordkette] since 30 December. Such a magnitude of snowfall has never before (since [records began in] 1973) been measured at such an early juncture of the season.”

“Amounts of 50-120 cm of fresh snow can be expected as a result of heavy precipitation between Tuesday morning and Thursday morning. Most of the precipitation is expected to fall north of the Inn and in the western regions of North Tirol. The snowfall level will be at approximately 1000 m to start with, then on Tuesday night drop down to low lying areas. The precipitation will again be accompanied by storm-strength NW winds, which in turn will bring about enormous snow transport.”

https://avalanche.report/albina-web/blog/avalanche-warning-service-tirol.blogspot.com/8858634630928597801?lang=en
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The latest EC46 model update came out last night so I thought I'd look back at the last time it was posted here (Dec 28th) to see how it did....at the time it showed a big change from high pressure to low pressure over the UK starting in the period 8th-15th Jan, followed by high pressure pulling further W/NW out of uk/france and low's moving SE across europe into week 2 and 3 of January.

So pretty accurate in terms of broad pressure anomaly from 2-3 weeks out. I believe the Met Office use this model in their mid range out looks too.

So here's the latest version for the first 4 weeks of Jan.
http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/07/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom.html

Week 1 shows the current strong high still in place west of UK, and the NW flow starting to take hold over alps
Weeks 2-4 show heights continue to shift into mid atlantic and eventually greenland, as the deep trough over scandi / eastern europe also shifts west

Could be quite a month, but nice consistency from EC46, and relatively accurate so far.
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GFS and ECM both showing a shift to more of a N, NWerly flow in the second half of January. Which offers the potential for colder and snowier weather for much of the northern Alps. Less so for the southern side at present.

Potential for some very heavy snow in the Arlberg on Sunday.

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Zermatt



Eastern Pyrenees

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@nozawaonsen What should I be looking out for in those charts ? General "disturbance", or is there something specific that means snow?
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