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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Weathercam, can you keep your comments about off piste exploits to a thread where it's actually relevant please? Such as one in the "off piste" section? I click on the "weather outlook" thread to read about the weather outlook, and I expect most other people do too.

Back on topic, seems like the outlook is fairly unsettled for much of the Alps & Pyrenees, but the question is how far / quickly the freezing level falls as the next few fronts pass over. Does a pattern like this mean it's more likely to bring rain at low levels for the Pyrenees / western Alps and more snow the further east you look?

Colder than average for the time of year in Scotland, for at least the next week.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@ Weathercam :Self righteous, pious, off topic, rude & repetitive. Weathercam leave it out dude!!!
You were & are (well) out of line on this, so do yourself,x & us all, a big favour, if you don't have the good grace to offer a belated apology to one of the best & most prolific poster's here, for wrongly jumping in with both feet, with totally inappropriate, painful, 'righteous indignation', (more like needless attention seeking imho), at least have the good sense to stay quiet.............please!!!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@horgand, so it's ok for you to throw comments and insults then ?

So nuff said on this now, let it go everyone.
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Weathercam wrote:
So nuff said on this now, let it go everyone.


Well said.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I’m well aware of the warnings in France as i’m sure was he. But he wasn’t in France as was abundantly clear from his post #stopdigging #humblepiecalledfor #haveyousenttheapologyyet? 🤣🤣🤣

Ps and pleeeeease don’t even think about conflating your outburst with my comment. For what it’s worth i’m glad you weren’t hiking up that slope!

Now... are you aware that most avi accidents this season are ski tourers on the way up? You can have that tip for free. Remember to share it with all your guide mates 😉

At the risk of becoming a bore 😉 i’ll sign off here

Sorry @Kitenski - couldn’t resist
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Snow line for this weekend seems really hard to predict. Some forecasts put it up to 2500 and above others lower. Planned a tour to the Maigehlshutte, above the Oberalp pass but my guess is the combination of bad viz and warming temps will put a stop to that. So where to go?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Yes, @amesbrocklehurst, the temperatures and freezing levels are moving up and down with each forecast published, but the general trend remains: cool and snow to Thursday, then warm and rain for Friday and the weekend. At least that seems the way here in Tarentaise. (Looks like we'll be building those Ikea wardrobes this weekend).
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Snow out to Thursday morning.



At which point temperatures will warm up for the weekend.

And at which point remember...


http://youtube.com/v/4VKy69sE4VY
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Not when skiing for my only weekend this year Sad
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I am out Thursday am to Sunday, not my only time but still annoying. Going to get on with it and make the most of it. Thursday looks ok, friday a bit wet and Saturday might be just about ok high up so fingers crossed.
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nozawaonsen, rain may be fine for Luke Bryan and his girlfriend, but i'm with reded78: rain is total downer in a ski resort.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Every forecast I've looked at for the Dolomites has a different take on where the snowline might be at the weekend. Do we have a best guess? Or is it just too difficult to predict?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
You can only get wet once - suppose just going to have to live with it, but certainly not ideal.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Temperatures on ECM look a lot cooler than GFS from my basic reading of them for mid week onwards next week. Hopefully it's right and GFS is wrong!! Which tends to be the more reliable model?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Should say that's for the NW alps
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I have my eye on that window also. Have more or less written off this week due to rising temps on Thursday and no companions anyway. But could get out next weekend.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The 12.00 ensemble for next week in the Ski Amade looks like a class of errant children have gone mad with a box of crayons.

I can't link to it but it looks hot with precipitation all over the place. I have everything crossed
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Close to Munich please as flights are reasonable. That is all I ask.
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Frosty the Snowman wrote:
The 12.00 ensemble for next week in the Ski Amade looks like a class of errant children have gone mad with a box of crayons.

I can't link to it but it looks hot with precipitation all over the place. I have everything crossed


Didn't think the 12z ensembles are out just yet? Either way, next week regards precipitation on the ensembles doesn't really have much agreement yet., though it looks like there should be some on Sunday/Monday. Temperatures look quite high initially though, so would expect rain at village level then turning more to snow late Monday.

Ensemble for Bad Gastein:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1347_ens.png
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Go high or go home weekend.... Damn Foehn 😬
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At least Saturday will be a nice easy transfer day... (looking on the +ve side Little Angel )
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Morris thinks there will be "some acceptable tree runs" somewhere in the southern alps this weekend, he's not sure where. Seems like a sub optimal dragon chase though.
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@8611, hmmm... snow line looks like being around 2100-2300m in NW Alps maybe around 1800-2000m in SW Alps. So maybe... but that also feels kind of in the edge of the tree line to me. But still time for shifts!
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Yeah - I think his thinking is depending on the storm track there may be parts where there's heavier precipitation and slightly cooler temps, and in those areas there may be tree skiing to be had. as I say, sub optimal! But I find his forecasts excellent, particularly for localized details so if anyone can pull it off he can.

In any event today and tomorrow look like being great days for anyone lucky enough to be in west.
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Could anyone tell me what is going on here? It seems to have gone all over the place....
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=46346&model=gfs&var=205&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=
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willirvine wrote:
Could anyone tell me what is going on here? It seems to have gone all over the place....
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=46346&model=gfs&var=205&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=


Its out of date. It was produced after yesterdays 6am GFS run. For some reason they have not been updated since then.

Below is from the midnight GFS run for Bourge saint maurice

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.62&lon=6.77

SO it shows it warming up from 9th to the 11th (good agreement)
Cooling down on 12th and then warming up again on the 14th (still pretty good agreement)

Pretty good agreement of precipitation 10th and 11th and possible on the 12th

After these dates the probability lowers but indications are that it would be average to above average temperature wise. Possible precipitation but up in the air as to when and how much

Best I can do I'm afraid.
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jimmybog wrote:
willirvine wrote:
Could anyone tell me what is going on here? It seems to have gone all over the place....
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=46346&model=gfs&var=205&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=


Its out of date. It was produced after yesterdays 6am GFS run. For some reason they have not been updated since then.

Below is from the midnight GFS run for Bourge saint maurice

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.62&lon=6.77

SO it shows it warming up from 9th to the 11th (good agreement)
Cooling down on 12th and then warming up again on the 14th (still pretty good agreement)

Pretty good agreement of precipitation 10th and 11th and possible on the 12th

After these dates the probability lowers but indications are that it would be average to above average temperature wise. Possible precipitation but up in the air as to when and how much

Best I can do I'm afraid.


Thanks,

I was meaning for the 00 run on that link which shows todays date 00hz and the data is all over the place for the precipitation!
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willirvine wrote:
jimmybog wrote:
willirvine wrote:
Could anyone tell me what is going on here? It seems to have gone all over the place....
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=46346&model=gfs&var=205&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=


Best I can do I'm afraid.


Thanks,

I was meaning for the 00 run on that link which shows todays date 00hz and the data is all over the place for the precipitation!


Aha yes I see what you mean. It basically shows a fault with the graph. This does occasionally happen on the wetterzentrale ensemble charts. Same on todays 6z chart. I dont believe its a fault with the actual ensemble runs themselves as they all show ok on the meteociel chart I posted
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
8611 wrote:
Yeah - I think his thinking is depending on the storm track there may be parts where there's heavier precipitation and slightly cooler temps, and in those areas there may be tree skiing to be had.


It's those sort of circumstances that Ischgl often works well IME...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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15cm of fresh overnight and bluebird. Today should be epic 😎
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Trying to get an idea what the likely freezing levels will be for my week away next week. I'm staying up in Arc 2000 which i think is actually at 2150m. First ski day will be Monday. I'm not the best with interpreting the models. Is it looking like a rainy week even at that altitude?
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@pmercer, no.
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Quote on Cham Meteo ,

It seems somewhat hopeless to awaiting any high pressure pattern until the last week of this March.
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pmercer wrote:
Trying to get an idea what the likely freezing levels will be for my week away next week. I'm staying up in Arc 2000 which i think is actually at 2150m. First ski day will be Monday. I'm not the best with interpreting the models. Is it looking like a rainy week even at that altitude?


Nope? FL looks high on Saturday (but precipitation levels look relatively moderate) - it then starts to drop from Sunday onwards hovering between 1,100M and 1,300M ... so a decent week in store (I'm out to Flaine for a few days on Wednesday so I've not seen anything in the latest charts to worry me - other than what happens in a couple of days).

Mrs F arrived in Val last night - 10CMs of fresh, blue skies and sun this AM ... great day in store (she doesn't venture off piste).

Meanwhile it's snowing (wet but sticking) here in Cheshire ...
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14 day wepowder forecast has reasonable snow next weekend with low temps. Will be interesting to see how it develops. I've not been yet this season and am realistically down to one bullet here so not sure how many more chances I'll get. Q is do I aim for disappointing wet heavy powder or just go for some high altitude spring sun piste bashing.
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8611 wrote:
14 day wepowder forecast has reasonable snow next weekend with low temps. Will be interesting to see how it develops. I've not been yet this season and am realistically down to one bullet here so not sure how many more chances I'll get. Q is do I aim for disappointing wet heavy powder or just go for some high altitude spring sun piste bashing.


It won't necessarily be wet or heavy powder. Some of the lightest cold powder I skied in Europe the last two winters was in mid-April 2017 and last weekend in April 2016. The charts were showing dips to around -5C @ 850hPa both times. Not unusual to see "Northern Stau" cold snaps like that happening late season. You do need to make a point of avoiding slopes in the sunshine as the powder does get heavy in the sun very quickly at that time of year. I'm hoping to get out again in April if such an event happens again this year!
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You've given me hope musehead. I certainly remember last year I think one of the dumps of the season taking place after the lifts in 90% of places had closed.

When you say -5 @850hPa what does that equate to in freezing level meters? I've had good enjoyably powder in late March / April too but one day and its cement.
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8611 wrote:
You've given me hope musehead. I certainly remember last year I think one of the dumps of the season taking place after the lifts in 90% of places had closed.

When you say -5 @850hPa what does that equate to in freezing level meters? I've had good enjoyably powder in late March / April too but one day and its cement.


-5C @ 850hPa would normally mean -5C @ about 1500m, so maybe 0C at around 800m ish. Both those times I was in Engelberg at about 1000m and it dumped down to below town level. The skiing is mostly between 1800m and 3000m though and it stayed light and powdery in the shade for several days. Most lifts were shut by that stage late in the season but it was so quiet and enough was open that it didn't matter. It was possible to ski right back to town last year in mid-April, through fields and closed pistes - but the bottom part of that descent was admittedly quite cement-like!
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Conditions are AMAZING above 2000m. Best season in memory. We’ll be skiing into June there is soooo much snow
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Weather forecasts all over the place.
A few days ago it was forecast rain tomorrow here in La Plagne.
Now tomorrow is scheduled to be another wall-to-wall sunshine day, like today, though a tad warmer.
(Today was brilliant)
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