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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, no sorry, it's too feckin close to home for someone like me (fatalities in La Grave yesterday etc) which frustrates me, you made a wrong call to be telling people that tomorrow could be "special" because of the sun!!

It's a basic heuristic trap and we've had enough tragedies the last couple of days without people like you advising that it could be a great day!

Just back track and admit what you said was not quite correct.

Past couple of days we've been skiing deep snow storm conditions (see Serre thread) and have been saying come the predicted sunshine that there could well be "issues" as people like you think it will be alright!

We're still trying to evaluate snow pack for tomorrow, croute oustide on the snow pack (due to late afternoon sunshine and warmer temps) on pretty well all aspects at 1400. so what will it be like above 2,000m these are but some of the questions we ask ourselves.

NB for most on here on piste will be superb rolling eyes

Sorry frustrated of Serre Che.................
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
This is a weather thread.

My comment related to the weather.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
As if someone would decide to go offpiste skiing based on a forum weather report saying it was going to be sunny rather than an avi report from experts. rolling eyes
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@DB, +1
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@DB, @Frosty the Snowman, if my comments make others bank it away in their grey matter for future reference then surely that is a goid thing?

Most punters will not refer to avi bulletins and will venture off piste without thinking.

Trust me, we will see loads today without the right equipment going in to questionable terrain.

And yes it's a weather thread somewhat focused on snow and weather in the mountains which should therefore reflect the potential hazards not just what might happen on the roads?

As I type this not a cloud in the sky, minus 8 and controlled blasting going on!
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I think the majority of skiers ski on-piste, the majority of Snowheads ski on-piste, and i suspect the majority of viewers of thus thread ski on-piste. For all these what nozawaonsen posted is perfectly fine.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Jonpim, I know I'm on a hiding to nothing by being critical, but in the past @nozawaonsen, has mentioned the avi risk........... rolling eyes

Like I say if it gets a few of you thinking outside the box then that's not a bad thing.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Weathercam, I can see why you are sensitive to avalanche risk, but surely those you know around La Grave are experienced snow folk that appreciate the risk.
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I read it as; it's a weather forecast thread and at last the sun will be shining after days of no sunshine. This makes for a great day skiing (whatever you decide to do).
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Mind you today chances are you're more likely to be taken out by a punter crashing into you in a lift queue rolling eyes
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Weathercam wrote:
@DB, @Frosty the Snowman, if my comments make others bank it away in their grey matter for future reference then surely that is a goid thing?

Most punters will not refer to avi bulletins and will venture off piste without thinking.

Trust me, we will see loads today without the right equipment going in to questionable terrain.

And yes it's a weather thread somewhat focused on snow and weather in the mountains which should therefore reflect the potential hazards not just what might happen on the roads?

As I type this not a cloud in the sky, minus 8 and controlled blasting going on!



I understand your frustration and yes it's good to point out the avi risk but don't agree that nozawaonsen is to blame for the stupidity or ignorance of others.

Stanton posted a clip with young skiers skiing offpiste in the St Anton thread. They were skiing down powder slopes all together, falling over and had no rucksacks = none had shovels or probes and most likely no transceivers either. I pulled him up on it but resisted a personal attack as it does nothing to help.

The sun can also have positive effects on avi risks - getting risk of surface hoar.

You too post a lot of great clips and pictures which will inspire people to ski offpiste probably more so that a sunny weather report, often you mention the avi risks but not always.

Maybe it would be better to put together a snowheads offpiste safety thread with real examples of where people have been caught out and what might have saved them - e.g. the recent "just offpiste" fatality in the Nassfeld thread springs to mind.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@DB, I wasn't blaming Noza "for the stupidity or ignorance of others" but maybe in hindsight the wording could have been something along the lines of "enjoy the sunshine but be careful with all the recent new snow" etc etc

Anyway here in Serre Che they had blasted the hell out of the more popular off piste routes, that said you could see so much natural activity out of the resort where we often go off the back, was quite alarming.

And saw this slide as we were hiking up, can you make out what had possibly set it off?



After seeing all the activity one big run we were planning to do we hit the nail on the head on that idea and whilst back home having a late lunch on the patio we could see four guys coming down the face.

Temps have been wild today, -10.5 first thing and now a balmy 9 degrees.

We did however manage some very sweet lines today, see the Serre thread Cool
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Weathercam

I believe this is a weather thread. Could you kindly keep the avi lectures, photo examples and q&a's for elsewhere please??
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Well... the sun came out...and... today was rather special.

Some good snow likely Tuesday and Wednesday too.



Looking at the back end of the week temperatures look like rising along with some unsettled weather. Early next week the freezing level is going to be key because depending where it is on Sunday/Monday there’s the potential for quite a bit of rain or snow.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:


Here are some ensembles...

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Weathercam, you post some terrific photos and the ones of the dogs are charming. You seem to have a lovely set up in Serre Chevalier.

But you are quite unnecessarily rude and your endless boasting becomes dull. Which is a real shame on what is basically a pretty friendly thread.

Your reaction to my post that the weather was going to be special today was simply bizarre. And to be honest the repeated personal snipes season in season out are just weird.

I have repeatedly posted on this thread about the risks off piste on the first sunny day after snow. I’m well aware of it and certainly spend enough time in the mountains to be well aware of the consequences. You seem to think you have a monopoly on this which is also frankly a little odd.

The fact that I did not caveat my comment yesterday evening with such a warning was neither here nor there. This is a weather thread. The first post on the first page every year encourages people to read their local avalanche warning and I frequently post links to them.

It would have been perfectly reasonable for you to have followed it up with a note of caution, but you chose to lay into to me for no apparent reason.

Then to cap it all you put two posts up with photos about the off piste lines you skied in the fresh powder and sunshine today. Looked like you had a pretty special day to me and I’m glad you did.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, don't be so sensitive, so it's ok for you to have a subtle pop at me as in the Retour Est thread yet when it comes back you don't like it ?

And don't seem to recall putting pics up of our lines in any other thread apart from the Serre thread as I mentioned.

The avalanche pic is about a slide and not about lines skied, and hopefully (but evidently not) was posted as to be informative as to how fragile that beautiful looking snow pack in the sunshine can be.

But alas I've obviously got it wrong and no mention or advice should be given in this thread to avalanches rolling eyes

Good night - love ya really Razz
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, nope, don't like those charts for my holiday. Do them again please.
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Lots of talk about this having been an epic winter.

Of course this is all rather dependent on whether you were skiing smoking powder on bluebird days or shut in your hotel watching black flags flapping in the wind and at least as importantly whether your dance moves payed off in the bar that evening or whether you ended up on crutches.

But.

What do the stats say for Austria...

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/winter-2017-2018-trueb-und-im-grossteil-des-berglands-viel-schnee

Some highlights.

- +25% snowier than average.

- -15% less sunny than average.

- February in the mountains -3.9C colder than average (one of the coldest Februarys in 32 years).

- Overall +0.8C for Austria for winter, though -0.1C in Tirol and only +0.1C and +0.2C for Salzburg and Vorarlberg respectively.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@nozawaonsen, or, not enjoying yesterday’s sunshine by being stuck in Edinburgh cos of a wee bit windybdrifting snow rolling eyes
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Weathercam wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Some terrific powder skiing round Verbier last few days. Tomorrow should be special as the sun arrives.........


That is so wrong, tomorrow is when it can be at it's most dangerous as people feel safe with the better viz, will probably still be 4/5, and with a bit of sun people will feel safe.


This is utter dangly bits. It was avi risk 3 in Verbier all week, including today, all the big lifts were open, and despite some wind loading the snow pack was stable with little visible activity. Guides were taking groups into backside Mont Fort, we also went in. As Noza predicted, it was special 😉
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, don't listen to @Weathercam,

99% of his comments don't deserve a response
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Frosty the Snowman, I agree, different charts please Nozawaonsen especially for the NW alps.
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GFS18z has Sunday mild.



And Monday cold.



So anticipate rain turning to snow. But too early to get a sense for where snowline will lie and how much will fall where.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
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First ski day is the Sunday so if you could bring it forward a little that would be appreciated.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Could be worse, I'll take the rain for one day if it's cold for the rest of the week.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Am I reading it right that weekend 0 isotherm threatening to go up above 2500m 😳. Would likely result in a lot of purging on the steeper slopes 😟 Fingers crosses it doesn’t happen.

Cold temps and new snow on Sunday/Monday more encouraging
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@BobinCH, yes that certainly looks possible. Although we’ve obviously had a very cold end to February spring is hard on its heels. So expect quite a few swings back and forth.

On plus side there’s always John Lee Hooker and fresh snow midweek.


http://youtube.com/v/X70VMrH3yBg
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
My timing, as always this season, is terrible. Watched the snow fall on the webcams this weekend. Flying out tomorrow eve, back on monday first thing. Might grab some fresh snow on Weds I suppose...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I am off to Morzine on Thursday morning for 4 days, those charts above look like lots of precipitation and and very warm so will probably be raining. Am I reading this right, looks on another website that the snowline will be at the top of the mountain so potentially raining up high too?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@mheadbee, we are heading to Morzine on Wednesday till Sunday, not happy about these latest charts. Hate skiing in the rain - might have to be an extended bar session some days.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
BobinCH wrote:
Weathercam wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Some terrific powder skiing round Verbier last few days. Tomorrow should be special as the sun arrives.........


That is so wrong, tomorrow is when it can be at it's most dangerous as people feel safe with the better viz, will probably still be 4/5, and with a bit of sun people will feel safe.


This is utter dangly bits. It was avi risk 3 in Verbier all week, including today, all the big lifts were open, and despite some wind loading the snow pack was stable with little visible activity. Guides were taking groups into backside Mont Fort, we also went in. As Noza predicted, it was special 😉


Agree, was melodramatic at best, self-righteous at worst and then there was no climb down either. Noza was just saying, "Sunday is going to be epic" and he was right, not "Sunday go skiing off-piste without any care or usual precautions".

Avi was 3/5 in PdS too, fairly normal risk after a fall.

Maybe switch to decaf?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Agree. Most people ski on piste most of the time, and most of those who go off piste will know of the dangers.

Can't see in any slightest way that Noza was at all wrong and can't see how anyone can make an issue of him saying "tomorrow should be special as the sun arrives...."

And no apology as far as I can see.
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And as of 17:00 yesterday avi risk in Valais was down to 2. Verbier didn’t get the same weather as further South and West and he didn’t even bother checking the avi risk before wading in 2 footed criticizing someone, who clearly knows a thing or 2 and is actually on the ground. And then posts pictures hiking on a slope where slabs were going 😳. It beggars belief...
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Keep the forecasts coming noza and don't "rise to the occasion" mate... disappointing to see the rain moving in and freeze levels so high (3000 metres) over next few days at least in Arinsal.

I still have 2 weeks to go so hoping it's a temporary blip in proceedings Very Happy
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@nozawaonsen, Keep up the good work mate, always appreciate your efforts. snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Anyone with any tips on what's in store for Val D'Isere for next week? Forecast seems to be swinging rapidly on google search result sites!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Bennisboy wrote:
Anyone with any tips on what's in store for Val D'Isere for next week? Forecast seems to be swinging rapidly on google search result sites!


A bit of everything by the looks of it.
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@BobinCH, right time to defend myself if I may Toofy Grin

I did not realise that Noza with that statement was only giving a local forecast for Verbier as I did not think he was concentrating just on his own back garden for that Sunday which is not something he usually does.

Across Savoie / Hautes Alpes local prefectures in advance of a perceived rush to ski off piste on a bluebird Sunday had issued strong warnings against going off piste (see avalanche thread in Off Piste section).

And if I were to post the main pic of that slide ( it's here ) you would see that we were hiking up a pisted track on a ridge that had been prepared for hikers (the vid in the Serre thread sort of shows that). That slide was on the out of resort side.

So as you have admirably demonstrated, people can misinterpret postings and jump to wrong conclusions, maybe without asking questions, resulting in making off the cuff derogatory comments Toofy Grin

Ciao
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Well, sometimes the weather outfoxes everyone.
Just now it is snowing here in La Plagne.
But i have yet to find a single site to suggest that was going to happen.
Even local La Plagne site has cloud&sun for today, snow for tomorrow.
So maybe now the warm weather and snow forecast for the weekend will magically turn into cold and snowy - we can but hope.
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