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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
It’s changed to 10 hours of sun (Wengen).... ages off yet.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/europe-on-long-term-3rd-feb.html
Yet another update for the long term, looks like it could be okay for the Northern Alps for the medium term, but potential for the Southern Alps later in the month and into March.
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So no significant precipitation I’ve the next 3 weeks @Jellybeans1000?
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GFS just keeps pouring below average temperatures out till 18 Feb.

@franga, erm the ability to gauge snowfall out to three weeks and beyond is... hmmm...
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So a chilly 1/2 term in St Gervais / Megeve? But no significant snow event?
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@bpirkle, yeah, can't wait
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@franga Yeah potentially for the Southern Alps later in the month, but could change, if the drivers move around.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
If you are looking for fresh snow in the next few days think Piedmont.

More particularly take a look at the south and places like Limone Piemonte which could get a top up of 50cms at the start of the week.

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Italy looking to profit most from snow over the next week.



Piedmont early week, Dolomites midweek.

Temperatures nice and low, windspeeds low. Plenty of sun about too outside of the snowfall.

GFS now has colder than average temperatures for the time of year out till at least 18 February.
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And the UK.
Some really good skiing today and better prospects over the next week. Cool
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Fresh snow at the western end of the Alps, 5-10cm in France and Switzerland, 10-20cm in western Italy, though southern end of Piedmont still looking like getting 50cm or so. In the east sunshine.

After that snow pushes east for midweek. Nothing especially heavy but should freshen things up (5-10cm).

After that possible snow for Valentine’s Day on 00zGFS.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
when you have a minute: ensemble for Wengen please Smile thanks!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
buchanan101 wrote:
when you have a minute: ensemble for Wengen please Smile thanks!


Save this link:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46.5&lon=7.5
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Thanks Mike!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Had trouble finding a safe place to do a Ski tour in Eastern Austria on Sunday. The North west winds transported the loose dry snow onto the South / East slopes and the avi level went up from a 1 on Thursday to a 3 above the tree line on Saturday. Found some treally nice dry powder at around 1500m.







Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Thu 8-02-18 9:44; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@DB, looks good!

GFS currently toying with two bands of snow for next week for the northern Alps. One Monday to Tuesday the next on Thursday.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@DB, looks good!

GFS currently toying with two bands of snow for next week for the northern Alps. One Monday to Tuesday the next on Thursday.


Bring it on 👍
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The Pyrenees has had some massive snow over the last few days. Locally here we have had about 50cm, but other places up to a metre. Very cold at the moment and this should continue for a good few days still.

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Snow out till Friday lunchtine on WRF.



GFS then has snow showers for northern Alps Saturday with slightly heavier snow Monday into Tuesday which might push south.

Looking like this.

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SCHNEE CHAOS !!!

At least according to Österreich, Austria’s equivalent to the Mail.

http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Unfall-Serie-wegen-Schnee-Chaos-auf-Strassen/320727152

Anyway it is snowing across much of the country to low levels and just like in the UK when snowfalls on major motorways etc even if not especially deep, but to low levels it can cause a few snags.
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Meanwhile...



The polar vortex is wrenched apart by an SSW later this month. This can and probably will have a big impact lower down as it introduces high level blocking. This has the potential to bring lengthy spells of cold weather to Europe (about a week or two later). However, whether it does or not rather depends where the block sets up.

And whilst we are talking of things arriving from above here is Richard Burton. What a voice.


http://youtube.com/v/m_Wpi2TWCVA
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Heavy snow (0.5m) now showing up next Weds (Wengen) on Bergfex... and rain low down...that could be a fun day stuck in the hotel as windy too...

But nothing at all on the Meteociel ensembles. Barely a ripple... Monday more likely for a modest snowfall. Guessing from the temp lines that it's cold front then warm front, with where the actual snow falls still TBD?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:
Meanwhile...




And whilst we are talking of things arriving from above here is Richard Burton. What a voice.


http://youtube.com/v/m_Wpi2TWCVA


As I type, I'm sitting at home in the village where he was born, bathed in sunshine and white with frost. Very Happy

PS the frost is outside, not on me.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Meanwhile...





Noza, with that chart for some reason I've got a distinct urge to listen to Primal Scream's Screamadelica album!! Movin' On Up anyone?

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Just to confirm, what I think is known, is that anyone who is a primarily piste skier will have a fantastic time in Zermatt or Cervinia. Gonergratbahn rail line has been cut through snow over 4 metres deep in places. Enough snow to last the rest of the season snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, decided on a road trip to Abries in the Queyras yesterday based on forecasts and actual snowfall as Abries borders Piedmont and benefits from all things Retour Est.

Overnight forecast was for 20 on top of what they had supposedly received.



I was a tad dubious looking at the cams as I could not see that much fresh so we arrived to find probably all of 30mm fresh!!!!!

So not only was the forecast wrong but the actual snowfall (ok I know it's from snow forecast) chart!!!

A pisteur that I was chatting to apologised when I asked him where it all was, though he did point us in the right direction Cool

And it did turn out to be one of those stunning memorable days and it seemed we had the whole resort to ourselves, no stress!


http://youtube.com/v/aK7skFGfjqk

Outlook down in this part of the world not brilliant, not too much in the way of precipitation but possibly not good enough for right conditions for snow to transform on S facing slopes.

Yesterday we did one run on a S Facing slope with boot deep fresh and technique was to ski more mellow gradients rather than steep as there was not a hard base to go through to.

With the sun still low this time of year the steeper gradients melt freeze more than the lesser gradients, sort of opposite what you look for when Spring skiing.
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@Weathercam, heaviest snow was forecast a good deal further east than Queyras (ie not a classic retour d‘est pattern). Still, looks like you found plenty to play in.

Monday looks like bringing some fresh snow (10-15cm) for many (though not Serre Chevalier!).

GFS 00z keeps temperatures below average only briefly reaching up to seasonal average occasionally throughout its run.
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@nozawaonsen, but that chart I posted was so wrong about 3 day accumulation - that was more the point I was making not so much the forecasts.

And when you make a road trip to find out all is not what it's meant to be............

But like you say when you get snow that light the smiles and yips soon return Toofy Grin
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Next Thursday Friday also starting to look potentially interesting...

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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interesting ?...more like baltic
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Looking cold, unsettled and snowy for the foreseeable outlook. And that is just here in the North Pennines Laughing
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http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/58958761-enneigement-en-montagne-au-7-fevrier-2018

After record breaking snowfall last month there are remarkable amounts of snowline Northern and Southern French Alps (less so in Maritime Alps).
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balkan states pls?
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Judah Cohen on spring. Usual caveats for anything long term apply.

“GFS/CFS has one a one word forecast for Eurasia for the next three months - #cold! Will be interesting to watch because in recent years the advancement of #spring has been aggressive to say the least.”

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/961964638232629253
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Snow coming Monday. Places in Salzburgerland and Central Switzerland could see 15-20+cms to low levels.

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@nozawaonsen,

What's your thinking for Thursday in Northern french alps? Was showing snow but changed to rain on meteociel and météo France.
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@howiet, meteociel is a website which shows all the different model outputs so not quite sure what you mean? But Thursday is looking wet below 1800-1500m in northern French Alps.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Snow coming Monday. Places in Salzburgerland and Central Switzerland could see 15-20+cms to low levels.



Pistes in Salzburgerland already in fantastic nick. No snowmaking for about a month so no hard icy base when things get a bit scraped.

Even had a couple of inches fresh this morning.
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@nozawaonsen, sorry just meant the general forecasts for the northern alps(Alpe d'Huez).
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Relatively high FLs on Thursday look like a short blip - they drop again on Saturday...
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