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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
(At the moment) Looking all a bit mixed for half term with variable precipitation? Not quite the 6 days of unbroken sunshine I have on order. Cold is good though.

Guessing Wengen is a bit of Arlberg and a bit of Chamonix?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow over high ground in northern England tomorrow.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@buchanan101, here’s Wengen.



Light snow this morning in Saalbach, cloud burning off.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen. So from that I take it that it's all a bit muddled from 10th onwards. I can take a bit of snow and a bit of sun... warming up a bit
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@buchanan101, it's always muddled that far in advance. I suggest to check Noza's chart closer to your dates, from 5 days in advance, to have a good idea of the forecast.
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snoozeboy wrote:
@buchanan101, it's always muddled that far in advance. I suggest to check Noza's chart closer to your dates, from 5 days in advance, to have a good idea of the forecast.


Thanks, good point. The lines are only coincident for 4/5 days out...
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http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/jaenner-2018-extrem-mild-und-viel-schnee-auf-den-bergen

January 2018 extremely mild and very snowy in the mountains.

- at low levels 3rd warmest January in 251 years of records.

- in North Tirol and Vorarlberg wettest since 1982.

- across Austria 70% more precipitation than average.

- above 500-800m 50% to 200% more snowfall than average (in some places 300%).

- below that height much lower snowfall than average.
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Snow forecasted for the next 3 days from tonight onwards seems to have disappeared on this morning forecast, it was looking fine last night Sad
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Half term week seems to be chopping and changing for Haute-Savoie. What’s the latest on which way it might go ?
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Can one hope for cold and sunny after snow in NW alps on saturday?!
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This latest forecast is such a good example of how you can't place too much reliance on a forecast more than 3-4 days out, particularly when not all the models converge. Looks like a nice top-up tomorrow with cold and calm weather to follow (great for next week's first tranche of HT crowds) - at least for the Western Alps. A great season continues ...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Fresh snow out to the end of Friday on WRF.



Brief warm spell on Saturday has been replaced with cold from tomorrow through to at least 10 February on ECM and GFS so snow will be falling to low levels.

Next week looks cold and sunny. The week after GFS brings in more unsettled weather particularly around 10/11 February which it has been doing for the last few runs, but that’s too far out to take seriously at this stage.

Very pleasant blue skies and sun in Schladming today.


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Wed 31-01-18 10:58; edited 1 time in total
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Not forgetting that snow forecast less than one hour ago showed cloud and snow flurrys for Zermatt for this morning. Webcams, showing bright sun and a little wispy clound ( not a meteorogical term I am well aware) Puzzled
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/jaenner-2018-extrem-mild-und-viel-schnee-auf-den-bergen

January 2018 extremely mild and very snowy in the mountains.

- at low levels 3rd warmest January in 251 years of records.

- in North Tirol and Vorarlberg wettest since 1982.

- across Austria 70% more precipitation than average.

- above 500-800m 50% to 200% more snowfall than average (in some places 300%).

- below that height much lower snowfall than average.


That would seem to fit with climate change models. Greater unpredictability. More energy into the system via tropical saturated air dropping very high levels of moisture through forced uplift. Fluctuating between heavy rain and wet heavy snow at altitude. Just what we have experienced in the UK (particularly in the north and west) over the last 15 years.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

That would seem to fit with climate change models.

yep, that's what I've been thinking
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Think cold.



GFS and ECM have below average temperatures until at least 10 Feb.

After the very mild conditions we have been having for much of winter so far it’s going to be a bit of a shock.

GFS again toying with bringing in more unsettled weather from 10 Feb in FI.
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If we could arrange for this cold to remain in mid Feb please? With maybe a consistent 15-20cm of overnight snow most nights, then clear and windless during the days it would be appreciated. @nozawaonsen - you seem to be close to these things, so no pressure, but don't let us down wink


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Thu 1-02-18 8:51; edited 1 time in total
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Not quite sure what the cold spell would mean for the snow pack @nozawaonsen particulalry if no freeze / thaw cycle to bond layers together (or am I talking nonsense) ... but good news for the HT crowds anyway ...
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I flying in to munich this evening and have car. Anyone any suggestions as to where to hunt for powder? Morris and other maps putting lots of snow down at border between austria italy and Slovenia but I don't know any resorts down there and those that come up online tend to be very small and very low?
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8611 wrote:
I flying in to munich this evening and have car. Anyone any suggestions as to where to hunt for powder? Morris and other maps putting lots of snow down at border between austria italy and Slovenia but I don't know any resorts down there and those that come up online tend to be very small and very low?


Isn't Nassfeld down there? Never been but it popped up on a 'hidden gems' type list whilst resort internet geeking. Being that far south of the main alpine ridge I don't think that there's that much above 2000m - obviously not a problem if the snow line is nice and low (I haven't looked at forecasts) plus trees are good.
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Also never been, but Nassfeld looks like the bullseye for the next few days to me too.
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@8611, Closer to Munich the Amade region near Salzburg has approx 25cm forecast on the resort tops over today and tomorrow. There is a decent base in the forests so should be some off piste to be had.
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Sounds like an option, thanks. Unfortunately something's now popped up in work so this evenings flight certainly falling by the wayside. Might still get out tomorrow though, if there's any powder left.
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@8611, should actually be snowing more tomorrow in most place I think
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clarky999 wrote:
Also never been, but Nassfeld looks like the bullseye for the next few days to me too.


But how many others are going to be heading there after Morris has tipped it?
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Scarlet wrote:
clarky999 wrote:
Also never been, but Nassfeld looks like the bullseye for the next few days to me too.


But how many others are going to be heading there after Morris has tipped it?


There will be/would have been plenty of people anyway - it's might not be known as a 'holiday' resort and certainly not as competitive as the Arlberg, but it's definitely on the freeride radar. Still does look like it'll get the most snow though.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Naasfeld significantly further than St anton from munich but I'm intrigued (and a bit bored with anton and don't like the powder competition there - place gets tracked out in seconds). If projected numbers, ie double elsewhere bear fruit could be worth a scoot.

Thanks for suggestions in any event. I had resigned myself to not going at all but you're whetting my appetite.
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A warm spell has popped up again in the GFS OP run for the 12th Feb. That’s 3 of the last 4 runs.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Interesting little piece in ZAMG discussing the snow loads on roofs in parts of Tirol and Arlberg.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/wetter/news/schneelast-auf-den-daechern-vorerst-im-201egruenen-bereich201c

There hasn’t been as much snow in these areas in January since 1982 and loads in some areas of the Arlberg are reaching 400-600kg per square metre. The buildings are built to withstand this, but the article cautions that there is still plenty of winter to come (and also flags up the risks of clearing roofs of snow).

Anyway back to 1982...


http://youtube.com/v/sJ6WtAC-x6o
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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meteox going for snow for tues/weds for france.....hopefully a nice top up ahead of HT crowds
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 Poster: A snowHead
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8611 wrote:
Naasfeld significantly further than St anton from munich but I'm intrigued (and a bit bored with anton and don't like the powder competition there - place gets tracked out in seconds). If projected numbers, ie double elsewhere bear fruit could be worth a scoot.

Thanks for suggestions in any event. I had resigned myself to not going at all but you're whetting my appetite.


May sound a bit daft but Kitz tries to pride itself on the amount of off piste it has and how little it is used?
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Doesn't seem to get hit in the current storm though? Its all further south?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
8611 wrote:
Doesn't seem to get hit in the current storm though? Its all further south?


That be true! That and to a lesser extent the NW (which is now sunny)
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Temperatures look below average out beyond mid month on 06z GFS. Briefly reaching up towards average in FI before dropping down again. Along with cold, much drier than of late too.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Temperatures look below average out beyond mid month on 06z GFS. Briefly reaching up towards average in FI before dropping down again. Along with cold, much drier than of late too.


Perfect for Half term Smile
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2775220

The BBC has redesigned its weather page which you may find helpful for running animations forwards, for the UK, Alps or elsewhere !

You can enable isobars to reveal the synoptic situation but the 12hr pressure charts are no longer available. You can also enable fahrenheit and kilometres per hour if that is your thing.
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Terrific light powder for a moonlight ski last night.

Meanwhile cold temperatures look set for at least 10 days or so.

Perhaps a little milder around Valentine’s Day.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Bergfex showing significant snow next weekend. Long way off I know. Hope it is sun instead
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Friday looks like it could be horrendous for anyone driving down...............like me.

Rain/Snow from norethrn France the whole way down. Obviously a lot can change between now and then...............and I hope it does. Don t fancy being stuck behind snow ploughs for miles on end

http://www.meteox.com/forecastloop.aspx?type=1
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Bergfex not showing anything for the western Alps next weekend?
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