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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
It's snowing in Val Thorens - http://www.valthorens.com/fr/live/livecams--webcams/livecam-station.550.html
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Nice webcam comparison between this morning and yesterday at 1600m in Pinzgau.

https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/sonnblickbasis/2017/09/03/0800

Slide the time back to the same time yesterday.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Männlichen, above Wengen this morning (I was at about 2250m)

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@telford_mike, is the monster hiding in the clouds on the left the Eiger?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Yes, that's the fella, you're looking straight at the north face.
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@telford_mike, thought so. Hell of a mountain!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Some interesting scenarios cropping up for next weekend on the models. Plenty of precipition (up 100mm NW), and below avg temps, freeze line below 2000m a possibility. Bergfex, always the most optimistic site in my view, has 20-30cm down to 1500m. Too far away, but nice to see.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Going to be following this thread more closely than usual this season.
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Ensemble models explained -

https://m.xkcd.com/1885/
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Currently in Oslo, where it is cold.

First snow up on the hilltops this morning.

Winter on the way snowHead
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Whitegold wrote:
Currently in Oslo, where it is cold.

First snow up on the hilltops this morning.

Winter on the way snowHead


Nice to see some positivity WG! Shocked
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@robboj, +1
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Offset by the post on And so it (17/18 ) beggins.

Whitegold wrote:
Quote:


Longterm forecast suggests another bad Alps season coming up.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Mid September looks like it could be quite cool in the Alps and unsettled.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

and as @langball said earlier looks snowy in places this weekend with the snow line falling to around 1900m in Hintertux...

Haven't had one of these up for a while...

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, yep levels downgraded from a few days ago as often happens a week out.

Re. those wxmaps links...most orgs use rolling average temps from the last 2-3 decades (NOAA etc). But link above uses the avg from 1901-2000. So anytime you see it in the blue zone, it's going to be a pretty strong anomaly compared to what we are used to. Oddly the precipitation maps use a more common average (1979-2003).

Also saw the QBO continues to fall sharply (-14 in aug), which might be related to the current northern blocking. Terry Scholey recently mentioned that easterly QBO's (like now) are twice as likely to produce a cold winter. Presume he means the UK, but it can't hurt.


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Wed 6-09-17 21:13; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@langball, easterly QBO is associated with a -NAO in winter. Northern blocking increases the likelihood of cold weather in Europe with the jet stream forced further south and polar air pushing down, but the more southerly jet can mean that it is drier than normal in the northern Alps, wetter in the southern Alps. So pros and cons.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
GFS has below average temperatures for the Alps running from 10 September out to 20 September.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, as you often say, it depends entirely on where the blocking is. The set up you describe may well be the default, but I'd always take blocked cold air over the westerly driven mild flow. Good example over the coming week, high pressure anomalies (blocking) to our north, east and west allows the cold air pool over greenland / canada to reach the alps, while the jet isn't too far south for us to miss out. Although there is greater precipitation due to fall in Austria and Italy, I only need 20-30cm to slide down a hill.

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With a strong -NAO you are (by definition) going to see the jet pushed further south than normal. If you want heavy snowfall in the northern Alps a +NAO is far more likely to produce. But as is the nature of these things the correlations are not fixed.
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Fifth warmest August on record in Austria

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/fuenftwaermster-august-seit-messbeginn

But September looking much cooler. Fair amount of snow heading for Hintertux over the coming week.
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Time to start watching this superb thread again (year after year...lol)


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 9-09-17 19:58; edited 1 time in total
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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View from Lounge window this evening

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Still a considerable amount of snowfall due at altitude in parts of the Alps, Austria and Switzerland in particular. 10-20cm at Hintertux down to below 2000m tomorrow and further snow falls at the end of the week into the weekend. Looking good for October glacier skiing at present...
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Stubai due to open this coming Saturday. Some noise that Pitztal will too. I think Sölden have already opened their park, not sure about pistes though.
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Some more snow down to 2100 meters this morning. "A considerable amount of snowfall" would be over egging it for the French alps though. A few "dustings" would be more accurate. The snow in the photo I took above pretty much melted the next day. Still even 10cm on ice would improve les Deux Alps and Tignes a lot.



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Parts of france should do well this week....GFS currently has Chamonix and Avoriaz expecting 30-40cm to 2000m.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
langball wrote:
Parts of france should do well this week....GFS currently has Chamonix and Avoriaz expecting 30-40cm to 2000m.


As that's screwed up my plan for a long weekend cruising up splitter cracks above the Envers des Aiguilles hut!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Hey, great to be back.
Does anyone have that handy link for the Wetterzentrale ensembles, and what would the Lat/Lon numbers be for Verbier? heading there for Christmas
cheers
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@davidof, that's why I said Switzerland and Austria?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Winter is coming
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
After today generally colder weather in the Alps looks likely for next nine days or so. Further snowfall looks likely to benefit the eastern end of the Alps more than the west. 10-20cm in Hintertux down to about 1800m tomorrow. 20-30cms Sunday into Monday down to 1600m.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, that's why I said Switzerland and Austria?


Alps.... in particular, was what you said.
I'm just updating for the French bit of the Alps.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
notnats wrote:
Hey, great to be back.
Does anyone have that handy link for the Wetterzentrale ensembles, and what would the Lat/Lon numbers be for Verbier? heading there for Christmas
cheers

46.0961° N, 7.2286° E
And http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=5588&model=gfs&var=205&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=
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@davidof, what I said was...

"Still a considerable amount of snowfall due at altitude in parts of the Alps, Austria and Switzerland in particular."

Never suggested nor implied that there would be "considerable amount of snowfall" in France so not sure what the over egging comment referred to.

Anyway, next week looks like bringing plenty of snow at altitude to the eastern end of the Alps, Tirol looks like getting the Lion's share from this evening's GFS.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, what I said was...

"Still a considerable amount of snowfall due at altitude in parts of the Alps, Austria and Switzerland in particular."

Never suggested nor implied that there would be "considerable amount of snowfall" in France so not sure what the over egging comment referred to.


don't be so touchy all the time
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@davidof, fair enough if you don't deliberately quote me out of context?
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Strong winds blowing this one in over the Jura this morning. Torrential rain broke out about 3 mins later.
GFS Op run for Sunday still looks like a big outlier vs ensembles, but looking forward to seeing widespread snowy devastation higher up.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
This evening's GFS has below average temperatures for the time of year stretching out for at least 10 days. Tirol looks like benefiting most from snowfall.

Some stormy weather blowing through Austria tonight...
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Really nice temps right now. Thinking about going to hintertux in early november, if this holds do you think all of hintertux will be skiable by then?
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@staffsan, depends what you mean by all of Hintertux.

Everything above the Fernerhaus should be open by then. Further down depends on the weather in October.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Thu 14-09-17 21:12; edited 1 time in total
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