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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, is livignio in italy going to miss all the substantial falls? Theres a bit forecast but cant work out if its in the wrong location. Thx
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@nozawaonsen, thanks. Still a bit weird that the cloud radar was clear
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SLF outlook for Switzerland

Significant increase in avalanche danger as a consequence of fresh snow and stormy weather

”Weather forecast through Tuesday, 16.01.2018

Snow will fall over a wide area during the night; only the far south will remain dry. The snowfall level will be approximately 1200 to 1400 m in the Jura and the western part of the northern flank of the Alps, and approximately 1000 m elsewhere. The snowfall will persist during the day. Central and southern Ticino will be sunny at times and dry.

Fresh snow

In the period until Tuesday afternoon above 1500 m:

Extreme west of Lower Valais: 30 to 50 cm

Northern flank of the Alps, rest of Valais, northern Prättigau, western Jura: 15 to 30 cm, but as much as 40 cm on the northern Alpine ridge

Rest of Grisons, northern Ticino, eastern Jura: 5 to 15 cm;

smaller amounts elsewhere

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: between -3 °C in the west and -5 °C in the east and south

Wind

Storm force from the west

Outlook through Thursday,

18.01.2018

Wednesday

The storm force westerly wind will be accompanied by persistent snowfall. On the northern flank of the Alps and in Valais and the Gotthard region, a further 30 to 50 cm of snow may fall. The snowfall level will be at low altitude. Only the far south will remain dry.

The avalanche danger will continue to increase over a wide area and reach danger level 4 (high) in some regions in Lower Valais and on the northern Alpine ridge.

Thursday

During the night snow will fall over a wide area. Only the far south will remain dry. During the day it will be very cloudy but mostly dry. The wind will be storm force from the southwest.
The avalanche danger will decrease a little in the regions exposed to heavier precipitation, but will not change significantly elsewhere. For snow sport participants venturing off piste, conditions remain critical in many places.”
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Outlook from Météo Alpes

https://www.meteoalpes.fr/2018/01/15/chutes-de-neige-durables-en-montagne/



Winds likely to peak overnight on Tuesday with gusts of up to 150kmh at 3000m.
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Warnings of gusts up to 120kmh in the mountains in Vorarlberg tomorrow and 60-90kmh in the valleys...
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Started snowing in Sainte Foy on cue.
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@sugardaddy, Oddly enough similar thing happened on Sunday in Zell am See. Sun forecast, and woke up to falling snow and about 3-5 cm at resort level. But the surprising thing was the snow only fell low down. Above 1200m it was sunny all day, as forecast. Obviously there was a temperature inversion, but I was surprised that it was possible to get a meaningful, (if small), dump of snow from low level cloud. It was really strange to enter into a lift and start ascending past trees laden with fresh snow, and climb further to find trees bereft of any white. I assumed there might have been a certain amount of 'lake effect' in Zell, with the lake providing just enough moisture to trigger snow, but obviously that doesn't apply to Schladming. I suspect the forecast was based on the general meteorological conditions, (which was high pressure in charge, and therefore dry), but couldn't compute the effect of the low level cloud, which is harder to pin down accurately. Was your Schladming snow only low level?
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@Colinthc, a low cloud might be it, I only looked on one webcam (as, contrary to what my wife thinks snowHead , I don't spend all my time looking at ski area webcams)
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A cheery, but succinct forecast from LWD Tirol...

“Alpine Weather Forecast (ZAMG-Weather Service Innsbruck)

Storm. Snowfall. Fog. Thus, inhospitable mountain weather. Snowfall will soon set in widespread, rainfall initially up to over 1000 m, before the snowfall level descends this evening. In the Hohe Tauern 15-25 cm of fresh snow is expected by tonight, and this will be transported by strong winds. Snowfall is expected to continue on Wednesday.

Temperature at 2000 m: -4 degrees; at 3000 m: -11 degrees. Stormy westerly winds.

Tendency

Fresh snow and wind will increase avalanche dangers further. In western regions: to HIGH.”
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Mellau-Rossstelle in Vorarlberg has already seen gusts reaching 111kmh.
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https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/europe-on-long-term-16th-jan.html
My latest outlook shows more snowfall for the North Alps for the rest of the month, and then South Alps gets more snowfall in Mid February. The long term models and the MJO progression support this.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/europe-on-long-term-16th-jan.html
My latest outlook shows more snowfall for the North Alps for the rest of the month, and then South Alps gets more snowfall in Mid February. The long term models and the MJO progression support this.


I'm going to keep my eye on that, arriving in Venice on 14th Feb, right when you can see that Low buffeting the Southern Alps. Skullie

So the question is, will I need to crack open the snow chains or not to get up to Cortina!? I guess we'll have to wait & see!! snowHead
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Lowther hills, Cheviots and west highlands starting to pick up a lot of snow from this returning polar maritime air.

Fantastic prospects for Glencoe and probably Raise. Could be some digging to do !
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You know it makes sense.
Weird weather today. Light drizzle in the city today, very clearly defined snowline on the trees on the north side of the valley at around 900m, nothing on the mountains on the south side.

Rain now turning to snow in the city and car showing +1°C.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
SLF for Switzerland.

”Weather forecast through Wednesday, 17.01.2018

Snow will fall in the north; the snowfall will be heavy in western Lower Valais and on the northern Alpine ridge. The snowfall level will drop to low altitudes on Tuesday evening. It will be dry and partly sunny only in the far south.

Fresh snow

From Tuesday evening until Wednesday evening the following amounts of snow will fall above 1500 m:

Extreme west of Lower Valais, northern Alpine ridge, Prättigau, Silvretta, Samnaun: 30 to 50 cm; in the far west on the border to France, up to 70 cm

Rest of the northern flank of the Alps, rest of Valais, rest of the Gotthard region, west of northern and central Grisons, rest of Lower Engadine, Jura: 15 to 30 cm, but 40 cm in some localities in Lower Valais

Elsewhere: smaller quantities, none in the far south

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: between -10 °C in the north and -8 °C in the south

Wind

Storm force, initially from the west, veering northwesterly as the day progresses

Outlook through Friday,

19.01.2018

In the north there will be heavy snowfall on both days. The snowfall level will rise to 1200 m on Thursday before dropping to low altitudes again during the night. The heaviest snowfall, 50 to 80 cm, will occur in the extreme west of Lower Valais, on the northern Alpine ridge, and in Prättigau and Silvretta. It will be partly sunny only in the far south. The wind will be storm force from the west.

In the areas exposed to heavier precipitation, the snow sport conditions outside marked and open pistes are very dangerous in many places. The avalanche situation will remain mostly favourable only in the far south.”
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Had glorius tree runs in ischgl today, back for more tomorrow. Turning on my beamer tomorrow tho, as snow continues to drizzle down.
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@nozawaonsen, Hi wonder if you can help.

Some sites forecasting significant rain at 1000m village level in Saalbach for Monday (we arrive saturday), what's your opinion on freezing levels/snowline on Sunday/Monday? Sorry i know its a bit far out, but one site has 60mm rain!!! lots of snow this week so won't affect the pistes too much, but Shocked Shocked just hoping we won't get too wet!
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Significant snow in Zermatt at present, with nothing running it appears.
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Snowy, cold and windy in Sainte Foy. First two lifts open. Decided to retour d’apartment. Crossing everything that wind dies down for last couple of days as there is bucket loads of snow up there.
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neilkav wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Hi wonder if you can help.

Some sites forecasting significant rain at 1000m village level in Saalbach for Monday (we arrive saturday), what's your opinion on freezing levels/snowline on Sunday/Monday? Sorry i know its a bit far out, but one site has 60mm rain!!! lots of snow this week so won't affect the pistes too much, but Shocked Shocked just hoping we won't get too wet!


Calm down - do what I do and ignore the pessimistic forecasts, especially the GFS-based ones. Anyway Bergfex is showing a snow line well below 1000m until it gets sunny next week.
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agw wrote:
neilkav wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Hi wonder if you can help.

Some sites forecasting significant rain at 1000m village level in Saalbach for Monday (we arrive saturday), what's your opinion on freezing levels/snowline on Sunday/Monday? Sorry i know its a bit far out, but one site has 60mm rain!!! lots of snow this week so won't affect the pistes too much, but Shocked Shocked just hoping we won't get too wet!


Calm down - do what I do and ignore the pessimistic forecasts, especially the GFS-based ones. Anyway Bergfex is showing a snow line well below 1000m until it gets sunny next week.


Cheers I know lol, plenty is snow anyhow, will shut up and enjoy!
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neilkav wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Hi wonder if you can help.

Some sites forecasting significant rain at 1000m village level in Saalbach for Monday (we arrive saturday), what's your opinion on freezing levels/snowline on Sunday/Monday? Sorry i know its a bit far out, but one site has 60mm rain!!! lots of snow this week so won't affect the pistes too much, but Shocked Shocked just hoping we won't get too wet!


Reason for the significant rain forecast for Monday on some sites is that they appear to be taking the operational run from GFS as gospel. Currently the op run has very little support from the other (control and 20 pertubation variants) GFS runs, so I wouldn't put much faith in the forecasts just yet. By the weekend, you can have more confidence on what the forecasts are showing for Monday.
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@nozawaonsen, the charts you posted on the previous page show the various patterns and the green one is the GFS spike which appears unsupported at the moment? Or am I misunderstanding?!
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simonmj66 wrote:
@nozawaonsen, the charts you posted on the previous page show the various patterns and the green one is the GFS spike which appears unsupported at the moment? Or am I misunderstanding?!


Its ths Chamonix chart in particular I'm referring to!
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@jimmybog, I'm not sure if I completely agree about the lack of support for rain. Looking at the chart for Chamonix, the majority of the runs seem to show significant precipitation along with above average temperatures for Monday. Though as @simonmj66 says, the more extreme GFS spike is thankfully an outlier. Further east, it's currently looking a little less wet for western Austria. @neilkav, Saalbach is even further east and the chart looks a little better: not cold (and perhaps warm for the time of year), but less precipitation forecast.

I'm hoping the NW Alps forecast will improve, as I'm headed for a low ski area near Chamonix next week, but at the moment it's looking like a rainy Monday. Beyond that, perhaps quietening down for a bit, but that's still a week away.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Wed 17-01-18 12:57; edited 1 time in total
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Are we expecting things to warm up by next weekend around the Portes Du Soleil? Looks like freezing level is rising to ~2000m? No snow forecast?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@JordanJSY, see above post, as for Chamonix. Chart is suggesting below average temperatures and some snow at the weekend, but warmer with rain lower down on Monday.
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denfinella wrote:
@JordanJSY, see above post, as for Chamonix. Chart is suggesting below average temperatures and some snow at the weekend, but warmer with rain lower down on Monday.
Fingers crossed then. Off to Avoriaz on 27th!
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You know it makes sense.
denfinella wrote:
@jimmybog, I'm not sure if I completely agree about the lack of support for rain. Looking at the chart for Chamonix, the majority of the runs seem to show significant precipitation along with above average temperatures for Monday. Though as @simonmj66 says, the more extreme GFS spike is thankfully an outlier. Further east, it's currently looking a little less wet for western Austria. @neilkav, Saalbach is even further east and the chart looks a little better: not cold (and perhaps warm for the time of year), but less precipitation forecast.

.


My post was a direct response to neilkav and I was specifically reffering to Saalbach and nowhere else. And I was specifically reffering to the precipitation total

This is the latest GFS chart for Saalbach:

The GFS operational run (black line) for the 22nd and 23rd is an outlier and has little support (shown by the mean red line) for the amount predicted, though less precipitation is shown by other runs. The operational run could end up being right but until there is agreement (where all the member runs agree) then I personally will treat the operational run with caution. This is why so many people get caught out by snow forecasts four or five days away. At that stage you can get an indication of what may happen but treat it with caution would be my advice.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.39&lon=12.64
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@JordanJSY, from Jersey?
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@neilkav, GFS and ZAMG seem to be in agreement that from Monday eastern Austria is getting warm with above zero temps at village level. How much precipitation will fall is still not clear.
Anyway:
1- there's enough snow for great skiing in any case
2- this year the weather is very unsettled and the models seem to be of even limited use than usual (so even the predicted warming might not happen)
3- We're going with kids, so for us +5 is better that -20 (none is ideal)
4- In Austria if it's raining you can always skip the skiing and do a day trip to Salzburg, Innsbruck or something like that
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@jimmybog, apologies, my mistake.
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@sugardaddy,

All good advice sure I’d rather be in the mountains in any weather than home anyway!!
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@staffsan,

Keep us posted on the conditions in Ischgl please. We arrive Saturday
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JordanJSY wrote:
Are we expecting things to warm up by next weekend around the Portes Du Soleil? Looks like freezing level is rising to ~2000m? No snow forecast?


I noticed that too, on snow-forecast they had the freezing level rising to 2100m on Monday and consequently rain on Monday night in Avoriaz. That said, it also says it’s going to chuck down over a metre and a half of snow in the next few days so I guess you take the rough with the smooth!
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Meteo Suisse currently predicting snow line rising to 1400m on Monday in the Valais. It’s usually more accurate than Snow forecast - let’s hope so!
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Wind causing major problems again today. Yikes!
https://www.facebook.com/VerbierSuisse/posts/1661933730566684
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@BobinCH, looking at one of the other gondolas that lift is running with skiers in it Shocked
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Verbier now providing complementary amusement park white knuckle rides for guests - what service 🤣
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Laughing @BobinCH,
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