 Poster: A snowHead
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xyzpaul
Disraeli said that there are "lies, damned lies and then there are statistics!" So you cut a slice data how you want and get whatever result suits you. It seems to me that those who know and understand are of a single view, have presented figures etc while you don't. There is no need to scaremonger because crying wolf doesn't work. The % chance of being caught in an avalanche is very low indeed. The order of maginitude is such that comparing it with driving is not unreasonable.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Hey guys you're right, driving is more dangerous than off-piste skiing - I've had one driving accident but none off-piste. Can't say I've ever skied off-piste, but that's irrelevant right?
SimonN, why are you so afraid of statistics? Yes they can be manipulated, so you choose to discount them completely. I agree that the % chance of being caught in an avalanche is very low, but that doesn't mean that it is less likely than being involved in a serious car accident.
Last time I checked my travel insurance policy, I didn't find "driving" listed under hazardous activities.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| gregh wrote: |
Bod,
Thanks for posting this and I'm glad your ok, very sobering.
You mention "In hindsight there were probably a couple of signs that could have prompted questions from me"
What were those signs, and what would you do again if you were in the same situation next time you are off piste?
Just hoping to learn from your experiences if possible.
regards,
Greg |
Good question, I wondered when someone would ask 
The first sign was on the way we traversed over a small slide which had probably happenned that morning. It looked like it may have been set off by someone sidestepping up a slope that we went around. It was on a different aspect and was quite steep.
Second was when John skied the gulley. He took an unusual amount of snow with him. The next two also took loads. I thought it odd, but didn't say anything.
Would I say anything now? You can bet your house on that, and I did later in the week everytime I saw something that I didn't understand.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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The great advantage of truth-bending using statistics, as compared to other kinds that simply assert, is that you can see exactly what has been measured or what has not been said about the conditions being measured (ie what exactly are the variables and the constants - or where these have not been specified, THAT they have not been specified). That is to say, statistics allow the application of intelligence: everything else is opinion and anecdote.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Wed 1-02-06 13:17; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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A very good point...
I have a friend who is quite an eminent professor at a US university - probably the only academic 'star' I've ever spent any time with. He has the most amazing willingness to ask simple questions with seemingly obvious answers. In contrast, I think most peoplke (including me) worry too much about looking stupid...
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 1-02-06 13:18; edited 1 time in total
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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BOD, interesting stuff. The thing I was wondering was whether you had any ideas on what type of slide it was, what the weak layer was etc. It sounded like the full depth of the snowpack went which is often a characteristic of a wet snow slide but that sounds a bit unlikely at this time of year.
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| xyzpaul wrote: |
I completely stand by my assertion that off-piste skiing is more dangerous than driving. As figures are unlikely to be found, I can only rely on common sense and my own experience, which I believe is typical enough for the sake of a simple comparison.
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| xyzpaul wrote: |
| SimonN, why are you so afraid of statistics? Yes they can be manipulated, so you choose to discount them completely. I agree that the % chance of being caught in an avalanche is very low, but that doesn't mean that it is less likely than being involved in a serious car accident. |
Pot, kettle, black? 
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Arno,
The main slope was full depth, but it wasn't that steep. The trigger was in the gulley, I only saw it crack, I was rather busy after that.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Uh? No-one has presented statistics that show the hours spent skiing off-piste versus the number of accidents. If such figures were available I'm confident they would show that off-piste is more dangerous than driving.
Come on guys, prove to me that off-piste skiing is safer than driving.
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xyzpaul,
Here's what I said ....
| DB wrote: |
| Thousands upon thousands of people go off-piste every year, don't let a handful of unlucky people put you off. I'd be surprized if the risk was greater than driving your car. |
| DB wrote: |
As I said before Powder skiing is probably less dangerous than driving your car, but a lot more fun  . |
You said it was "thoughtless" and "absurd". If your comments were valid you would be able confirm them with facts. The only thing you have stated is that you are a very safe driver and have never been offpiste.
I think this thread is very useful for everyones safety and would hope that I don't become part of a petty argument that detracts away from the importance of the thread. You have made your points other people have made theirs - let's let the readers make their own minds up eh and move on?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Arno wrote: |
| BOD, interesting stuff. The thing I was wondering was whether you had any ideas on what type of slide it was, what the weak layer was etc. It sounded like the full depth of the snowpack went which is often a characteristic of a wet snow slide but that sounds a bit unlikely at this time of year. |
I was in St Anton the week before (but not skiing the back of Rendl). Just before midday the previous Tuesday I caught my skis on a Bush or something under the 15cm of fresh snow and lost both skis. It took us a while to find them but those of us searching noted how wet the snow underneath was. It was sunny later in the week and according to the local TV there was some temperature inversion (warmer higher up, cold in the valley).
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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DB,
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| You said it was "thoughtless" and "absurd". If your comments were valid you would be able confirm them with facts. |
So if my comments were not valid then you would be able to confirm that with facts.
I agree that this is a useful thread about safety, that is why your comment "I'd be surprized if the risk was greater than driving your car." needed to be challenged.
I give up
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xyzpaul, you do seem to be taking a provocative stance on this?
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You know it makes sense.
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Nick Zotov,
I carry a lightweight plastic shovel made by....???? I accept it is not the best but even I don't like the idea of people just carrying bleeps and not a probe, shovel, first aid, blanket, rope etc . I think these people must assume they we can dig them out but what they have is next to useless as regards the group's safety.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| xyzpaul wrote: |
SimonN, why are you so afraid of statistics? Yes they can be manipulated, so you choose to discount them completely. I agree that the % chance of being caught in an avalanche is very low, but that doesn't mean that it is less likely than being involved in a serious car accident.
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I am not afraid of statistics. I thought it was you who was! I have given you statistics that show skiing is no more dangerous than driving. It seems that you are the person who wants to ignore the statistics I have provided and use ones that suit your purposes better.
I believe that in this discussion, hours spent doing the activities isn't a good measure of relative safety. Take an extreme hypethetical case. If there were an activity that took 1 million hours for a person to do but at the end of it they were killed, your arguement would say that it is safer than an activity that takes 1 hour, has 500,000 people doing it and has one death per 500,000 hours as the second activity would have 2 deaths per million hours! However, the first activity has 100% certainty of death
If the statistics are given as a number of deaths per year, I believe that should be compared with the number of people doing the activity per year. On that basis, off piste skiing is safer than driving.
As for why it is listed as a hazardous activity, that's insurance for you. Swimming causes far more deaths but that isn't listed as a hazardous activity. I would suspect that the reason is nothing to do with the hazard but to do with the costs. Digging somebody out of an avalanche is going to lead to a far higher bill than saving a drowning swimmer.
However, if you want to believe that off piste skiing is so hazardous and you don't want to take the risk, great. The back country is getting too crowded anyway 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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BOD, great article. Scary as hell 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There seems to be a lot of talk about statistics. This to me is a bit of a mute point. Driving a car and backcountry skiing both have risks. However you can take steps which significantly reduce your risk both in the backcountry and driving. How agressive you are and the attitudes that you take will significantly affect the risks you are taking. While risk can never be eliminated there are several ways to reduce the risks, many of which have been discussed here. To add to the points already made, as a guide i always rely on using terrain. There is great backcountry skiing to be had which is not in avalanche terrain and on which i rely on when conditions are poor. When i teach introductory courses on avalanches I always stress identification of avalanche terrain, if your not in it you don't have to worry about avalanches.
Often the perceived risk of backcountry skiing is very high among individuals who ski the resort, however the real risk can often be very different. Or, sometimes the reverse is true, especially with the young population who watch endless ski movies of top end athletes out running avalanches and then think that they can do the same. Gaining expertise and more knowledge allows us to better evaluate the risks that we are taking and adapt our skiing to the risk levels we are willing to take. If you do not have the skills to recognize the risks which you may or may not be taking, then you should take a course or go with a guide. As a client you should feel free to ask the guide what level of risk he takes and question decisions that he makes.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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In terms of avalanche safety equipment. Here is what you need.
As a minimum anyone going backcountry ski touring, with or without a guide should carry an avalanche transceiver, probe, and shovel. In my opinion you should also always use a "bouyancy" device of some sort, in North America the only device currently available is the ABS avalanche airbag backpack. Using an avalanche cord is a good idea if you do not have anything else or your beacon dies, however it is somewhat archaic and there is a reason why the entire professional industry said good by to them many years ago.
The stats (although they vary slightly depending on the study) are as follows:
If caught in an avalanche: Trained Rescuers, with beacons, probes, and shovels you have a 63% chance of survival.
Avalanche Airbag Backpack - 93% chance of survival.
Avg. times for professionals to find and dig someone out:
Using a Transciever (T), Shovel (S) and Probe (P) - 15min
T/S - 27 min
T / P - 51 min
T - 1 hour plus.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Chuck Gorton,
| Quote: |
If caught in an avalanche: Trained Rescuers, with beacons, probes, and shovels you have a 63% chance of survival.
Avalanche Airbag Backpack - 93% chance of survival.
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I have seen similar figures on the manufacturers site. As a matter of interest have you got links to the original studies? Were the studies conducted and funded independantly of the manufacturers? What was the size of the study in numbers?
Many Thanks.
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ABS has done there own studies as well there has been some independent studies done, including one by the Snow Science Institute in Davos, Switzerland. These numbers were presented at the latest ISSW (International Snow Science Workshop) however it was noted that there needs to be more studies done on the ABS. All studies so far point that it drastically increases your chance of survival. I have a few of the studies available for download on my website, you can find them at http://avalanchesafety.ca/downloads.htm . Backcountry magazine also just did an overview of the ABS, you can find that online at http://www.backcountrymagazine.com/news_abs_arrives_oct07.html hope it all helps.
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Chuck Gorton, an excellent post, and an excellent thread to choose to bump with it.
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Chuck Gorton,
The data in your link looks most impressive. Have you any idea how the data collection was done?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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T Bar,
In terms of the survival statistics i think a lot of the data collection is done by the users which is then forwarded to the company. As a dealer when we sell a pack we ask customers to let us know if they are involved in an avalanche and have a form for them to fill out. In Canada i know that the Canadian Avalanche Association tracks the statistics and in Switzerland there is a similar body. I personally know of 3 instances where an individual has been caught in a slide and deployed the airbag, all ended up on the surface. One incident, which occurred at Last Frontier Heliskiing has changed their policy this year so that all guides and guests will be wearing the pack. 2 guests not wearing the pack died in the same slide.
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FAQ
