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any signs of change in the weather systems - will February be snowy for the Alps??

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
It looks to me as if, in general, the last 2 weeks have been something of a snow-drought for much of the Alps


... is there anything out there on any of the weather maps that would indicate new snow systems for Austria and Switzerland (in particular) over the next 2 weeks - what is the historical take on snow patterns in early February in the Alps - i would have guessed that this would be a period with a good probability of a decent dump

...anyone out there care to comment?? (it's Friday - i feel like having one of these rambling posts ....)
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The girl on the BBC weather this morning said " there was something nasty" happening in the Med and south of France, so the Alps look good for a good dumping this weekend. So fingers and everything else is crossed
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 brian
brian
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Historically, I don't think there's much difference between the winter months in terms of average precipitation, so you're more or less as likely to get a dump in February as January. Obviously the cumulative depth will tend to be higher in Feb.

As to the outlook, well for the Northern side of the alps, the models are suggesting more of the same largely dry weather for the next week, suggesting a breakdown from the atlantic and decent chance of snow from next Friday (the 3rd). However, that's a whole week away and the block that's sitting on top of the UK could be a lot harder to shift, so I wouldn't put any money on it.

The southern side, predominantly Italy, which really needed some snow has had a good pasting the last couple of days and should get some more from another low pressure moving off the med. Southern France should also do well.
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brian - that's great - just keeping the eyes out for any significant falls up to 11 feb - have flights and car booked to southern germany - we'll point the car in the direction of any and all new snow!
...at the moment arlberg/vorarlberg and alpenarena switzerland are in the lead ...
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Quote:

the last 2 weeks have been something of a snow-drought for much of the Alps

this area has done OK - several reasonable dumps which have kept pistes in good condition. But temperatures next week seem to be much higher, so any precipitation (not that there is any forecast) would be rain except at high altitude. Nobody will convince me they know what is going to happen in three weeks time! Butterfly wings, and all that.
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high winds here today - snow-eating foehn - most chair lifts closed. A great deal warmer. I think we've seen the end of the cold weather, so let's hope it stays dry.
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Markw wrote:
The girl on the BBC weather this morning said " there was something nasty" happening in the Med and south of France, so the Alps look good for a good dumping this weekend. So fingers and everything else is crossed



Fingers and toes crossed
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
there'd better be no great dumping this weekend, or it will dump rain on many resorts
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doogo, Fear the worst, the current strength of the foern wind should disrupt any recourant weather patten enabling the Alps from benifiting from its positive early start. On the positive side, should get on my new bike a little earlier than expected. Little Angel
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Freezing levels seem to be rising dramatically. Shocked
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Helen Beaumont, what does that mean, Helen? Little Angel
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Quote:

the current strength of the foern wind should disrupt any recourant weather patten enabling the Alps from benifiting from its positive early start

what does that mean, SMALLZOOKEEPER,
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pam w, Well, with the amount of humidity in the air, coupled with snow on the ground, any moderate change in weather would drop the snow taken straight back down. A foern wind coming from the south would, with these conditions, be met with a Bisse(nothern wind) at some point and be dragged back to the highest and coolest point, Mont-Blanc. However, the Foern is strong, so unbeliveably strong and will disipate somewhere over Britain. That leaves you in Blighty with a wet spring, maybe even snow and us, the alps with a crisp dry and poor skiing April. It's like you putting all you money in the bank here and then withdrawing it over there. It's a little more complicated than this and i'm opptimistic that the glacier will benifit for years to come(thaw, freeze) however, right now it leaves the holiday period rough and hard for those whom ski infrequently(once every five years or so) Little Angel
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Strange goins on today. Only surface learner lifts open in La Rosiere today. All else is shut
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SMALLZOOKEEPER, gettin' warmer higher up . No doubt there's a more technicallly correct term.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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gettin' warm everywhere, and the foehn still strong, all the higher chairlifts here were closed today, but fortunately we have a link with Crest Voland which is much more sheltered, with all lifts open. But I now see why they call the foehn the "snow eater". The snow is rotting in front of one's eyes!
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kind of a bummer to hear that. going to be the 3 valleys in mid feb and hoping for a some snow... please???
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there's two weeks before mid Feb, it will have fallen by then, have faith.
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just back from Les Carroz, can confirm it's very warm out there, colder at Doncaster airport when I landed!!

are you seriously predicting a poor April SMZ? Just persuaded some friends to join us for their first ever ski trip to Trois Valless on Easter Sunday, 16th April Sad

regards,

greg
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no snow forecasted for Austria in 5 day forecast to next Sunday as per SCGB site.
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 brian
brian
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Looks like a gradual cool down over the next week, no snow likely until at least the 5th. Something tasty brewing next week though, although it's early days. snowHead
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any sign of the Scottish slopes getting some much needed white stuff Brian???
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 brian
brian
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gregh, funny you should say that, because the 12z GFS was an absolute belter for Scotland, loads of Northerly and NWly weather from late Monday onwards. However, not much support for it from ECM or the MetO.

Just watching the 18z rolling out now ....
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In Kaprun as I type - Crisp and cold got me a sun tan and its the beginning of Feb. Some light snow forecast for the weekend. Snow is clean and not too much Ice in lower slopes - will let you know how the glacier is doing tomorrow.

Boyo
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Monday looks good - see here for Kaprun's 6 day forecast - snow falls on Monday night
six day weather forecast

Much the same right across the alps - snow on monday and at the begining of next week looks on the cards - pack the goggles!.
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Metcheck has snow for La Plagne Wed/ Thurs - anybody think they're reliable?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Mid/End of next week light snow showers but nothing exciting, leave the fatties at home.
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Frosty the Snowman wrote:
Mid/End of next week light snow showers but nothing exciting, leave the fatties at home.


You're not going then? wink
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Hywel, bruudddddumm (drum roll) Very Happy
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 brian
brian
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helenjane, Metcheck (like snow-forecast) just recycle the GFS (which is the US government global forecasting model). Although at least snow-forecast try and take the local mountain topography into account (or so they say anyway).

GFS is sticking to Atlantic weather fronts being thrown down across the alps next Wednesday. Northern France and Switzerland look well placed. Anywhere with an open aspect to the North West looks likely to get 30cm+ I would have thought. If you're in the shadow of something big like say, Courmayeur behind Mont Blanc you probably won't see a flake. Ho hum.

I'll keep you posted.


btw, the last few runs have been excellent for Scotland from next Tuesday onwards. Everything crossed this season finally gets going properly !!!
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 Poster: A snowHead
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brian, thanks - it is what it is, as they say!!
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Hi brain, im a new poster and by all accounts you seem to be the man for this forecasting business- so tell me, im off to les gets and chamonix from monday to next sun, what is the likelyhood of a serious fall of snow for the mont blanc area, im pretty flexible as im staying in Anamasse so can i can travel anywhere within say 2hrs ish. By the way how much should i read into snow forecast.coms predictions.
thanks alot
Puzzled Twisted Evil
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HARRYMAC2702, Not the U Brain, you need Brian. Laughing

Your biggest problem will be avoiding 'snowfalls' and actually driving to the resorts if you are staying in Annemasse - don't forget the winter tyres and snow chains!
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HARRYMAC2702 wrote:
Hi brain...


That's a good start! rolling eyes

Laughing Laughing
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Ok, BRIAN! BUT I STILL NEED A REPLY!!
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 brian
brian
Guest
HARRYMAC2702, chances look pretty reasonable for a medium sized dump next Wednesday. However, that's still 5 days away, so lots to go wrong.

I would say snow-forecast is pretty good for telling you if it's likely to snow in the next 3 days but forecasting amounts in anything other than pretty vague terms is a mug's game, imo.
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for what it's worth, in the last month snow-forecast has tended to under-estimate the amounts of snow falling in the northern Alps. The factors which determine the amount of snow are so local and variable it's impossible to forecast - few of the local forecasts round here ever seem to take a guess at actual amounts!
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PAM, AS YOU ARE LOCAL IN FRANCE DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE REGIONAL PREDICTIONS ARE FOR CHAM AND LES GETS. BETTER FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH- NO OFFENCE!!
CHEERS
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HARRYMAC2702, STOP SHOUTING YOU ARE GIVING ME A HEADACHE!
wink
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ARNO. IF I WANNA SHOUT ILL SHOUT. ASK ME NICELY AND ILL BE QUIET. OTHER THAN THAT ILL CONTINUE AS I PLEASE. I WANT INFO NOT DAFT REPLYS
THNX
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