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Next Season is going to be lot more Expensive!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Johnson has 30days to save the Pound and your Holidays getting very expensive..

Shorts are still out
ski holidays     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

stanton,

£ bouncing today , the silence is deafening .

Just a little prediction , Mays deal which wasn’t actually that bad will have some tweaks and turns into Boris’s deal , it’s passed followed by a snap election .

There may be a few bad days for the £ to follow but looks like 1.10 vs € still seems to be the low point .

I own £ and € assets so I have no axe to grind unlike @stanton, who talks his position persistently and only on days that it’s going his way



Quote from 24th July above

It’s started . I may have got the low wrong but reckon this won’t be too far from the future
ski holidays     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I’ve been watching this thread for a couple of years and as an Aussie I can tell you your dollars performance makes a difference to the cost of ski holidays but to most addicted skiers it doesn’t present an insurmountable hurdle. You will find a way to afford the ski holiday.
It’s like if the price of alcohol doubled overnight. We would whinge and bitch but most would continue to enjoy a tipple now and then.
And Stanton what is the obsession with GBP losing value anyway? You’re gleefully willing it down. What do you stand to gain? Just curious.

I don’t know the numbers but if punters from the UK are a big market and do abandon some ski resorts in big numbers (which I doubt) there may be a reverse effect of lower demand creating a cheaper price anyway.
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@sbooker, Answer. €€€€/Chf

Plenty of rich eastern & southern europeans (the new money) replacements for the Brexit.

Original Point of Topic 3 years ago when the Brexit Ref happened..was Sterling would nosedive...and drive prices higher for Brits..

No one expected this to last 3 years but its very clear for sometime that markets will slaughter sterling on a No Deal for many years.

Balance

A deal will bring an upside but longterm very unlikely as Trade deals take years and no one can trust Trump motives ..

We had two consecutive massive seasons in Austria....so maybe this season will be a drought and UK folks can save up for 2020/21

GLA
snow report     
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
sbooker wrote:
I’ve been watching this thread for a couple of years and as an Aussie I can tell you your dollars performance makes a difference to the cost of ski holidays but to most addicted skiers it doesn’t present an insurmountable hurdle. You will find a way to afford the ski holiday.

Thing is there are lots of factors other than the currency fluctuations that effect the price of your ski holiday and more importantly your ability to pay it. If my disposable income rises 5% it cancels out a 5% increase in the price of my ski holiday. Also when it was £1 to a Euro.43 or whatever the peak did swathes more people go skiing than they did last year? I don't know the precise answer but I do know that for me over the last 30 years currency fluctuations in themselves have made very little difference to my skiing holiday habits.

sbooker wrote:
And Stanton what is the obsession with GBP losing value anyway? You’re gleefully willing it down. What do you stand to gain? Just curious.

stanton is the SH's village idiot. And frankly people pay him too much attention. Paradoxically, the attention is exactly what he is here for. Sensible debate or helpful information certainly isn't his forte.

sbooker wrote:
I don’t know the numbers but if punters from the UK are a big market and do abandon some ski resorts in big numbers (which I doubt) there may be a reverse effect of lower demand creating a cheaper price anyway.

For certain ski areas and ski towns Brits are a big slice of the pie but overall it's not a killer loss and the ski industry itself isn't high on the list of priorities in general terms for Europe. Tourism in general is of course.
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stanton wrote:

Original Point of Topic 3 years ago when the Brexit Ref happened..was Sterling would nosedive that winter season ( which it didn't)


FIFY Madeye-Smiley
ski holidays     
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Layne, The village idiot is the blind headless chicken...looked in the mirror recently?


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Fri 23-08-19 11:16; edited 1 time in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Layne,

If skiiing got expensive, people would prob just start going for shorter trips.
Airlines will start to cater for it, as will the resorts. Something like Sun-Fri, or Wed-Sun or Fri-Wed.
My knees are getting to the point where I cant board for 6 days anyway. After 3 days, its a day by day case depending on any swelling.

It is certainly something we are starting to look into. A week break with only 3 or 4 days on the slope & then a day or 2 closer to the airport.
We would probably get to the point of picking our destination based on the 2nd part of the trip, rather than the mountain, as I love visiting new cities & towns.
ski holidays     
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buying gear from UK e-shops has never been cheaper Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Mr.Egg, and others as tourist punters you should simply follow a few Geezonaire / friends** visiting rules Laughing

One: There's no need to have an expensive lunch and or drink(s) on the mountain every day, for sure maybe one or two days as you are on holiday (see points further down)

Two: There's no need to have apres-ski drink(s) - as above

Three: Go ski-touring for a day or two

Four: And with the above do half days and then there's no need to but a week's ski pass Cool


** or what an average French family does


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Fri 23-08-19 8:55; edited 1 time in total
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Mr.Egg wrote:
@Layne,

If skiiing got expensive, people would prob just start going for shorter trips.
Airlines will start to cater for it, as will the resorts. Something like Sun-Fri, or Wed-Sun or Fri-Wed.
My knees are getting to the point where I cant board for 6 days anyway. After 3 days, its a day by day case depending on any swelling.

It is certainly something we are starting to look into. A week break with only 3 or 4 days on the slope & then a day or 2 closer to the airport.
We would probably get to the point of picking our destination based on the 2nd part of the trip, rather than the mountain, as I love visiting new cities & towns.


People booking shorter stays has certainly increased in St Anton. Many more people doing weekends, or 3 or 4 day "long weekends", than was the case 5 or more years ago. There is no longer such a marked difference between Saturday and the remainder of the week.

Whether or not that change is attributable to increased costs is unknown to me, and/or whether that has happened in other resorts. I cannot however say that I have observed a significant increase in the cost of skiing the Arlberg over recent years. While the current AUD:EUR rate sucks compared to 5 or 6 years ago, it has been worse at times in the 18 years that I have been skiing there.
snow conditions     
 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Mr.Egg wrote:
@Layne,

If skiiing got expensive, people would prob just start going for shorter trips.
Airlines will start to cater for it, as will the resorts. Something like Sun-Fri, or Wed-Sun or Fri-Wed.
My knees are getting to the point where I cant board for 6 days anyway. After 3 days, its a day by day case depending on any swelling.

It is certainly something we are starting to look into. A week break with only 3 or 4 days on the slope & then a day or 2 closer to the airport.
We would probably get to the point of picking our destination based on the 2nd part of the trip, rather than the mountain, as I love visiting new cities & towns.

#1 - Brits are less likely to do that on account of geographics
#2 - Skiing is intrinsically quite expensive
#3 - It will be the marginally punters who fall away, they take it or leave it altogether - rather than faff with shorter breaks

I am not saying there won't be some increase in shorter breaks but I don't think it will be a large increase.

And, on a technical point, on a per day basis it will make it more expensive.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Pound nudging €1.11 and starting to think about hedging my bets and buying a few Euros for the coming season. But not before getting some more expert guidance from Stantroll.
Oops, I blocked him!
What a fool I must be.
latest report     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
esaw1 wrote:
Pound nudging €1.11 and starting to think about hedging my bets and buying a few Euros for the coming season. But not before getting some more expert guidance from Stantroll.
Oops, I blocked him!
What a fool I must be.

I'm a cynic, but during them busy holiday times, I am sure the exchange rates are always a bit on the softer side.. supply & demand just to make a little more.
Maybe a good opportunity is next week - majority of holidays are over, kids are back in school & that small window of opportunity before parliament sits again!
ski holidays     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Mr.Egg, I will heed your advice. Sometimes you speak sense. Thank you.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@esaw1, currency speculation is a tough gig. Really not worth attempting for us amateurs.
snow report     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
stanton wrote:
Shorts are still out


Well it has been quite warm in the UK recently. wink Toofy Grin
snow conditions     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
"Which" had / have an interesting report on FX rates up on their site atm for members, and an eye-watering statistic:

If today you change your (holiday) £500 money at the best and worst rates available it will make a difference in your spendablity of £132. Shocked

Had you changed £500 they day before and the week after the brexit vote [at the same place both times], when the pound suffered it's biggest dive, it would have made a difference of just £25.

The very stark message: It ain't when you change, it's where you change.
snow report     
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Mr.Egg wrote:
esaw1 wrote:
Pound nudging €1.11 and starting to think about hedging my bets and buying a few Euros for the coming season. But not before getting some more expert guidance from Stantroll.
Oops, I blocked him!
What a fool I must be.

I'm a cynic, but during them busy holiday times, I am sure the exchange rates are always a bit on the softer side.. supply & demand just to make a little more.
Maybe a good opportunity is next week - majority of holidays are over, kids are back in school & that small window of opportunity before parliament sits again!


I doubt it. The FX flows in the professional / wholesale market make the retail/OTC market look tiny.

Also worth pointing out that amateurs/retail may get lucky at times, there is no way they will beat the professional/wholesale market. The technology and IP supporting the latter is mind-blowing and a nuclear arms race. Read up on "latency arbitrage" and "high frequency trading" to get an idea of what goes in the wholesale space.
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ulmerhutte wrote:
The technology and IP supporting the latter is mind-blowing and a nuclear arms race. Read up on "latency arbitrage" and "high frequency trading" to get an idea of what goes in the wholesale space.


Yes but there we are talking about making fractions of a cent on huge transactions, a lot of it by effectively front running the market.

I completely agree with you that retail investors are not going to compete in that space.
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Pound Slumps

100% Sell

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is -0.81% lower @ €1.09845 on 28.08.2019

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is -0.8% lower @ $1.21826 on 28.08.2019
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@davidof, are you suggesting there is an FX market in which retail investors could compete?

Which market would that be? In answering that question, I assume you are aware how carded rates are set?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@stanton,

Pound Slumps , no it hasn’t .

After today’s news it should be , just goes to show how much bad news is in the price . If I was you I’d be closing your position because it’s going to cost you and yes next season will be more expensive for you
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ulmerhutte wrote:
@davidof, are you suggesting there is an FX market in which retail investors could compete?


I'll leave the investment advice to Stanton but I agree with you that FX is a very good way to lose money. There was a documentary on people, housewifes, Dutch cab drivers etc. doing it on TV a few years back, they had some "formula" or something and were losing a lot of their own money. I think it was this one (can't view it at work)


http://youtube.com/v/mLCe830fi3k
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@davidof, when I bought my flat in France I rang round many of the usual suspects (eg Transferwise, Moneycorp) and found using my normal bank (firstdirect) saved me around £800 compared with all the competition (who were all around the same level). Quick and easy, as well.
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Sell Sterling now !


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Thu 29-08-19 15:03; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
[quote]
Had you changed £500 they day before and the week after the brexit vote [at the same place both times], when the pound suffered it's biggest dive, it would have made a difference of just £25.
[/quote

This sums it up for me. People like to use words like crash to be overly dramatic. The fact is when you stop looking at the graphs with misleading scales and look at the real numbers it's hardly affecting the average tourist looking to change some holiday spending money into euros. I appreciate for investors or those looking to buy property it's a bigger deal.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Alastair wrote:
@davidof, when I bought my flat in France I rang round many of the usual suspects (eg Transferwise, Moneycorp) and found using my normal bank (firstdirect) saved me around £800 compared with all the competition (who were all around the same level). Quick and easy, as well.


Well that's useful to know. Is it because it was a large sum or does that apply to say a 250 quid transfer I wonder?
snow report     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Just did a quick internet check --- collecting £250 gets -- worst, 269 euro : best, 272 euro
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
albob wrote:
Just did a quick internet check --- collecting £250 gets -- worst, 269 euro : best, 272 euro


275.50 euros through my revoult card
snow conditions     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Like The Empire Itself, The British Pound Is Not What It Used To Be

The British pound sterling is the oldest currency still in use in the world, dating to the time when Britain was little more than a collection of warring fiefdoms regularly plundered by Vikings.

Since its first use in the eighth century, the pound has survived revolutions and world wars, the industrial age and Thatcherism, and today it remains a powerful reminder of the glory days of the British empire.

But over the years, the pound has lost a lot of its luster, and in the wake of the Brexit turmoil, some economists believe it will only keep losing value.

https://wamu.org/story/19/08/29/like-the-empire-itself-the-british-pound-is-not-what-it-used-to-be/
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@stanton,

Even you might be able to spot the difference


http://youtube.com/v/ox-Jd8amw80


http://youtube.com/v/qx1GqTZtBbA


http://youtube.com/v/KyLSUZ1qlVM
snow report     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Mr.Egg wrote:
albob wrote:
Just did a quick internet check --- collecting £250 gets -- worst, 269 euro : best, 272 euro


275.50 euros through my revoult card


ok not a big deal but a few euros is nice to have

squeeky bum time for some friends who have just sold their house in Grenoble for 700keuros and are moving to the UK - they are worrying about the exchange rate because they don't exchange until November they would love Haggis Trap's prediction of 90 centimes to the pound.
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@davidof, I'm not sure. I had used someone else for the deposit assuming they would be cheaper and was certainly surprised when transferring the larger amount. Next time I have to move some money across I'll do a comparison on a smaller amount but that shouldn't be for a while.
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What is the impact of Brexit on the GBP and euro?

Scenario 1 - A no-deal Brexit
This will result in immediate GBPEUR weakness as the GBP is sold off heavily. It remains to be seen whether it will be a 'sell the rumour, buy the fact type of response', but it is a scenario to be aware of as a possibility, particularly as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, is priced in more and more to the GBP.

Scenario 2 - Brexit with a deal
A Brexit deal will result in immediate, and prolonged, leading to GBPEUR strength as the GBP is bought on relief that a no-deal Brexit has been avoided.

Scenario 3 - Brexit is postponed
This scenario again will see GBPEUR strength with the GBP being bought on the relief that a no-deal Brexit has been, at the very least, temporarily avoided.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/what-is-the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-gbp-and-euro-20190829
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Surcharges

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-holidays-charges-surcharge-currency-pound-euro-exchange-rate-a9083876.html
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:


At the close: Markets enter reverse as Brexit strains stack up

1 Pound =$1.10 and €1.03 Coming !!!!


S]@stanton[/b], this is Stanton’s first post in July 2016 , since then the £ has been to 1.15 vs the € and back to sub 1.09 briefly , over 65 pages of posts have been written about it and the £ is still at €1.10 .
snow report     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
stanton wrote:
What is the impact of Brexit on the GBP and euro?

Scenario 1 - A no-deal Brexit
This will result in immediate GBPEUR weakness as the GBP is sold off heavily. It remains to be seen whether it will be a 'sell the rumour, buy the fact type of response', but it is a scenario to be aware of as a possibility, particularly as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, is priced in more and more to the GBP.

Scenario 2 - Brexit with a deal
A Brexit deal will result in immediate, and prolonged, leading to GBPEUR strength as the GBP is bought on relief that a no-deal Brexit has been avoided.

Scenario 3 - Brexit is postponed
This scenario again will see GBPEUR strength with the GBP being bought on the relief that a no-deal Brexit has been, at the very least, temporarily avoided.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/what-is-the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-gbp-and-euro-20190829


It seems that the odds for no deal in 2019 are fairly even now, which is some way of a contraction in odds

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/no-deal-brexit

Assuming it is evens that there is a no deal, and that in this scenario sterling will decline, and evens it will be delayed or a deal will be achieved, whence sterling will advance, it seems a fairly even 50/50 chance of a decline or a profit on sterling. (in the short term).

Thinking long term, whatever the outcome, sterling will strengthen as uncertainty is removed. Best to do nothing, and await the long term, as this will remove uncertainty from the pricing discount.
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Now that Barnier has put out that the EU will protect the interest of its citizens and has a duty to protect peace in Ireland in all circumstances ……………. you can now expect UK and EU forces to control (aka fight over) the Backstop issue!

QED ..…………. that Sterling strengthens against the Euro in the medium to longer term seeing as the back-door gets slammed shut in the EU's fac Madeye-Smiley
Skiing looks like getting even cheaper!
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This was remarkably prescient, published before the Brexshit vote

https://www.snowskool.com/uploads/files/What_would_a_Brexit_mean_for_a_ski_holiday_in_Europe_-infographic_-_V1_SnowSkool.png
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