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Next Season is going to be lot more Expensive!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Dave of the Marmottes, 1.31 - even so, from then to jan 16, whilst exchange rate was worse so in resort cost more for food, cost off accomodation, flights, etc reduced for me (for the same place) Presumably because they were down on sales, so all in all I was £50 worse off.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Lord i apologise if my last post read terribly, stupid phone has done some rather odd placing of comas!!
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@PaulC1984, yup agreed
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@PaulC1984, tbh we're probably not disagreeing all that much. I've only read the last few pages and assumed the conversation moved on from the first post and the title.

Whether costs increased a lot or a little depends on the perspective the one paying. I'm just pointing out that eating a slice of pizza instead of wildragout for lunch on the mountain every day to keep costs the same = paying the same for less = more expensive.

For some reason some people (not necessarily you) seem to want to deny that that is related to Brexit, which is what I don't understand.
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@clarky999, Riches to Rags Skiing.

They will never understand that they are taking a hit !

Willkommen im Leben eines Skibum
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clarky999 wrote:
.....
For some reason some people (not necessarily you) seem to want to deny that that is related to Brexit, which is what I don't understand.


Always happy to help. Try slapping a rolling average of, say, 100 days to the graphs of exchange rates of the Pound against the Dollar and the Euro.
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@achilles, and why does that mean this is not related to Brexit? Sure, GBP devalued in the financial c0ckup of 2007 but recent falls are purely down to having an entirely incompetent, useless bumch of idiots calling themselves government, and their handling of the farce that is the Tory party's internecine implosion. (I.e. Brexit).
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achilles wrote:
clarky999 wrote:
......
LOL. I check the exchange rate almost daily to see how much less this month's salary is worth and to try to judge when to move it into €.....


@clarky999, I am so happy that you are having lots of laughs. If you are happy, then everybody is happy - and laughter is good for your health.
......I do realise that people converting sterling income into € have concerns - always a risk when taking on commitments in one currency when the income is in another - but saying that doesn't help you a lot.

Just had a quick look at the exchange rate a year ago - it was €1.17. Today it was €1.13. So 3.4% down today from then. Maybe no need to panic.


Indeed, and it's been snowing on the glacier the last few days so tomorrow should be a powder day, which makes me even happier (potentially some high water kayaking this afternoon too).

Today is 1.1269
Yesterday was 1.127 (average)
Friday was 1.313 (after Carney suggested interest rate rise)
Monday (11th) was 1.099

15 Feb was 1.177
1 Sept was 1.088

I'm not saying there's any need to panic - I just don't agree with your assertion that the downward trend isn't largely due to Brexit. It jumps up or down following every progress update - up namely when events happen like the Supreme Court ruling against the government; down following every round of talks between Barnier and Davis.

FWIW I'm also (genuinely) not trying to make any point about whether brexit is good or bad here, or whether a weak pound is a price worth paying (or a boon) etc etc.
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@under a new name, there are a few [snow]heads stuck in the sand around here. Faith in Maybot and Boris "pants on fire", leads to blindness (or is it the other way round...). Clear indication that when Maybot and co fart the markets move. Markets currently (IMHO) think the status quo will continue for a while yet so reverting to 1.1+. Single market, EFTA etc has a way to go. If May says Brexit is hard Brexit I would expect the markets to drop. This makes your holiday money more expensive. If she agrees to soft Brexit then I expect pound to jump.
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@Bennyboy1, err, and why do you think I thought otherwise? Or perhaps I misinterpret.
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@under a new name, agreeing with you
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under a new name wrote:
@achilles, and why does that mean this is not related to Brexit? Sure, GBP devalued in the financial c0ckup of 2007 but recent falls are purely down to having an entirely incompetent, useless bumch of idiots calling themselves government, and their handling of the farce that is the Tory party's internecine implosion. (I.e. Brexit).


There was a steady downward trend long before Brexit. Rolling average shows barely a blip around the referendum. I think Brexit will bring all sorts of problems (as well as opportunities). But I really cannot see the logic that says a drop that was happening before the referendum becomes a Brexit problem after the referendum. As a side issue, I am not sure that a low exchange rate is a bad thing for the nation as a whole - but I can see it does make skiing more expensive, and adversely affect skiing related businesses.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@achilles, it depends if exporters can turn it to their benefit and the benefit is not eroded by trade tax. Further it would depend if BoE sees too much inflation risk and raises rates. This would hit poor people disproportionately. Non conforming / sub prime lenders are already reporting higher arrears recently. Next will be credit card cos. So high or low valued pound has pros and cons for economy in my view.

But for my holidays Brexit instability makes it more expensive so far.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Currencies will always fluctuate for some reason - some trivial, some major. Clearly Brexit is going to cause some fluctuation but imagine it never happened - what would have happened. I don't know the answer but I know it would have fluctuated and it's quite possible it would have still gone in the same direction. And then there is the question of permanency - will there will be a long term shift of the average.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Layne, I would substitute 'probable' for 'possible' in your comment - but really, I agree with you.

@Bennyboy1, I was concerned abut the lack of resilience of borrowers to an increase in interest rates long before the referendum ( as, I suspect, were you). IMV government (or possibly the BoE) should have intervened some time ago.
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@achilles, I think there is a general agreement (amongst those with a reasonably informed opinion) that GBP was somewhat overvalued. But the current weakness is to my mind completely Herr Teresa May's under-mustachioed face's fault.

The woman is ghastly.

@Layne, agreed. But you have to look at purchasing power parity don't you? One could imagine that it's cheaper for Mars to import their own exported Mars Bars (The Universal Currency, per FT, passim) back into the UK to make a bigger profit than just selling the ones they make domestically.

(Apologies for the gross confoundations of FX, transfer pricing and free markets)
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Took @stantons advice on the 27th of August as the Euro was going to crush the pound and parity was coming, got 1.07 it's now 1.12. Of course I did not. Stupid boy.
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@under a new name, the problem with Mars Bars is as a Universal Currency, is that they are not a fixed size against time. They have grown and shrunk.
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@achilles, darn, you are right!
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achilles wrote:
under a new name wrote:
@achilles, and why does that mean this is not related to Brexit? Sure, GBP devalued in the financial c0ckup of 2007 but recent falls are purely down to having an entirely incompetent, useless bumch of idiots calling themselves government, and their handling of the farce that is the Tory party's internecine implosion. (I.e. Brexit).


There was a steady downward trend long before Brexit. Rolling average shows barely a blip around the referendum. I think Brexit will bring all sorts of problems (as well as opportunities). But I really cannot see the logic that says a drop that was happening before the referendum becomes a Brexit problem after the referendum. As a side issue, I am not sure that a low exchange rate is a bad thing for the nation as a whole - but I can see it does make skiing more expensive, and adversely affect skiing related businesses.


None of that is true. Below is the 10 year graph. http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

"Steady downward trend long before Brexit" er, when?

"Barely a blip around the referendum" or in other words we GBP fell off a cliff?

You sound like my last pension advisor.
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@bar shaker, Brexit was not 'announced' until after the referendum. David Cameron announced the referendum in February 2016, by which time the pound was falling steadily. You could take the view that the referendum was certain to take place once the 2015 election result was announced - but that was in May 2015 - so that doesn't tie in with your graph, either. So let's look at the Pound to US Dollar exchange rates - is that more in synch with your sentiments? Nope. The pound started falling against the dollar in 2014 - when most thought that the next election would result in another coalition, IIRC. I still think that Brexit has had little affect, long term, on exchange rates.

Looks like your last pension advisor gave you sound advice.
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under a new name wrote:
@achilles, and why does that mean this is not related to Brexit? Sure, GBP devalued in the financial c0ckup of 2007 but recent falls are purely down to having an entirely incompetent, useless bumch of idiots calling themselves government, and their handling of the farce that is the Tory party's internecine implosion. (I.e. Brexit).


I'm not suggesting that the government have helped the situation, but I can't help feeling that 52% of the electorate must carry most/some of the responsibility.
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well I voted for brexit and if that means I have to pay a few quid more for my ski holiday then its a price worth paying.
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@compostcorner, really? Not wishing to take the thread OT but so far I'm not really hearing any benefits of leaving the EU.
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Wait til the Irish have to commit troops to a war they disagree with.
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Next Season is going to be lot more Expensive!


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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
achilles wrote:
@bar shaker, Brexit was not 'announced' until after the referendum. David Cameron announced the referendum in February 2016, by which time the pound was falling steadily. You could take the view that the referendum was certain to take place once the 2015 election result was announced - but that was in May 2015 - so that doesn't tie in with your graph, either. So let's look at the Pound to US Dollar exchange rates - is that more in synch with your sentiments? Nope. The pound started falling against the dollar in 2014 - when most thought that the next election would result in another coalition, IIRC. I still think that Brexit has had little affect, long term, on exchange rates.

Looks like your last pension advisor gave you sound advice.


The trigger for the decline was David Cameron's announcement on 18th Dec 2015 that the vote on remaining in the EU would take place in 2016. This was the first time that the markets were faced with the certainty that there would be a vote and they were shocked that the vote would come so soon. They reacted accordingly.

The announcement of the actual date was in Feb and this was made as the decline since the December announcement had been worse than expected. As the polls were giving a Remain victory, the pound firmed up slightly once the date was announced.

Which ever polish you try to put on this, it will always be a turd.
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@stanton, Catalonia.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@bar shaker, not sure why I should polish anything, the graphs are there for each to draw her/his own conclusion. The decline against the euro is similar to the decline against the dollar. There is a time lag, but your theory does not explain the start of the pound's decline against the dollar. However, you seem very keen to attribute the pound's decline to Brexit - and if that helps you keep in your comfort zone, why not stick with that.
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Hmm May leaks Brexit bribe to keep us in the game for longer - GBP instant uptick v USD. Yep purely cyclical. Still traded for some holiday cash.
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Did some in depth calculations last night; My 17-18 is going to be 25-33% more this time compared to 16-17. I know that's a big range but it depends whether I do 4or5 weeks instead of the 3 last year. Worse still is it'll be at least double what it cost me in 15-16. Toofy Grin
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achilles wrote:
@bar shaker, not sure why I should polish anything, the graphs are there for each to draw her/his own conclusion.


So it's all just a massive coincidence and the movement was for some other, unknown reasons?

achilles wrote:
The decline against the euro is similar to the decline against the dollar. There is a time lag, but your theory does not explain the start of the pound's decline against the dollar. However, you seem very keen to attribute the pound's decline to Brexit - and if that helps you keep in your comfort zone, why not stick with that.


Since December 2015, the pound has declined against all major world currencies. My theory says that Brexit will damage the UK economy and will seriously damage the tax revenue received by the UK government. The movement since Dec 2015 reflects this weakness. Rather ironic that not one single party mentioned the loss of tax revenue in their spending plans at the last election. The Financial Industry was paying £71bn a year in tax (https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/business/economic-research-and-information/research-publications/Documents/research%202016/total-tax-report-2016.pdf). In the last year virtually every major bank and insurer have established European bases, to continue trade with the EU. To be based in the EU, these banks and insurers must pay their tax in the EU. These finance businesses will still have a presence in London, but their corporation tax will go elsewhere, Dublin and Frankfurt being the biggest gainers.

But hey, at least we taking back control.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Fri 22-09-17 13:20; edited 1 time in total
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Come on Brits, move on now - this is page 28 now. Shocked
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Hyst wrote:
Come on Brits, move on now - this is page 28 now. Shocked

You haven't seen the Brexit thread have you... among others....
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@Hyst, we cannot. It's too raw and feels too damaging. Divided nation
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This thread is a case study in motivated reasoning. Unfortunately I don't understand the Brexit mindset, but it seems to touch on something pretty emotive and deep down, or this thread would have only been one post long. As Clarky and others have demonstrated, there's no disputing that skiing for the vast majority of UK skiers will be significantly more expensive this year, and that is largely because of Brexit.
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element wrote:
This thread is a case study in motivated reasoning. Unfortunately I don't understand the Brexit mindset, but it seems to touch on something pretty emotive and deep down, or this thread would have only been one post long. As Clarky and others have demonstrated, there's no disputing that skiing for the vast majority of UK skiers will be significantly more expensive this year, and that is largely because of Brexit.


As I have said earlier, my trip is £20 more expensive and only due to a week change - same week would have been cheaper.

Spends will be a bit more due to currency changes, but significantly? Nope.
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First post in this thread, I've resisted as to avoid getting flamed or trolled...but this year is pretty much like for like as last year. It may cost a little more in resort but as I budget only around £25 a day (I snowboard early and all day, have a snack in the day before my half board evening meal, followed by a couple of pints and supermarket drinks in my room). At say £5 extra a day £30-£35 more expensive is not going to worry me...the trip it's self is costing me no more!
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...and if demand is down because people can't afford to book up winter holidays, I wouldn't be surprised if the TO's start throwing out last minute deals even cheaper than last year. But obviously that's the future and until it happens I won't know if I'm wrong or right!?!
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@manicpb, it's interesting on the TO front. I wonder if by booking independently you are actually fixing the increased cost now whereas a sensible TO would have hedged the rate risk so maybe the consumer is not wearing all the rate cost now?
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