 Poster: A snowHead
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Having continued planning our fantasy trip 'Skiing in the Axis of Evil' (Iran, Syria, Libya, with others added - and one friend has already got some of these ticked) we turned to post Brexit destinations. The real economy seems to be re-asseting itself - ie consideration of the underlying strength of economies - and so the GBP has stopped its slide against the CHF while the Euro seems to be recovering more slowly. The Italian banking crisis (putatively attributed to Brexit but simply symptomatic of deeper problems) will potential pose a greater risk to the Euro than was anticipated.
Where will we ski this year? Switzerland. Will it be a bit more expensive - actually it will be the same as 2011 and 2014 when the GBP reached a low against the CHF. If the GBP climbs even a little more, then Switzerland will still be cheaper than it was 2 and 5 years ago. Which is interesting.
And don't you just love Snowheads? One post on global politics and the real economy and the next on 'which bindings shall I get'. Priceless.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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If you're smart you'd have hedged your currency risk. If you're stupid you'd have voted Brexit, so you can enjoy your "independence" and not worry about the cost.
You could go to Scotland though - I think that may well be a good location all things considered.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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France obviously! The Euro is 97% the value it was mid season. France is so expensive, you won't notice it.
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Sentiment is very bearish against the Pound right now.
If it follows the trend of past crises, the Pound will fall a further 10-30% in the next 3-6 months against the Dollar, Euro and CHF.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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That's what my (no UK and therefore not Brexit idiot) advisors are saying at the moment, for the dollar at least.
I would not personally be so cocky about the Euro, medium term at least. They're undoubtedly not as stupid as Brexit people, but their economies are already very weak....
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Sentiment is very bearish against the Pound right now.
If it follows the trend of past crises, the Pound will fall a further 10-30% in the next 3-6 months against the Dollar, Euro and CHF. |
Trend of past crises shows that Pound tends to level of at the new, lower level:
UK drops of the EU Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992:
http://cl.ly/3A3l343a0O0H
Great crash of 2008:
http://cl.ly/1N3R3a112L0s
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Interesting times. I think the Yen is where the money's likely to go short term. Nobody knows what's going to happen in Europe or the States over the next 6 months.
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@cameronphillips2000, ...that would be a turn up for the books - Yen has been in the doldrums for a VERY long time. Meanwhile, further interesting developments, rates shifting in unusual ways at opening today, and...
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5119-euro-to-pound-rate-could-fall-if-euro-takes-the-brunt-of-the-brexit-shock-wave-as-seems-likely-according-to-handelsbanken
...was flabbergasted when senior EU official said on Tuesday night late on R4 '...there can be NO half-membership of the EU...' - Er....Norway, Iceland, Switzerland.
Slowly, the underlying real economy is being recognised, which is good. We need to support manufacturing development in UK, in which we are pre-eminent in a series of areas - F1 engineering, chip development (ARM), aero-engine technology.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It's quite funny reading some of the posts on here. If you think the Yen is the future, you clearly have never heard of Abenomics. If you think sentiment is very bearish toward Sterling, please I'd love to know where you've read that, and Philwig, you're just an idiot.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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^^^^^
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Philwig, you're just an idiot
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+1.26M 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I can't see Brexit making much difference in the short term, or possibly the medium term. After all, the pound sank to almost parity against the euro some time ago, and we kept going skiing......
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I'm wondering if the impending re-run of the presidential vote in Austria might have any bearing if there's a different outcome?
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You know it makes sense.
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@Frank Spencer, can't see it having any effect (on skiing, considering the title of this thread).
Even if the FPÖ win, the President is just a figurehead, and about as powerful as the Queen. Not going to be able to change anything.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Frank Spencer wrote: |
| If you think sentiment is very bearish toward Sterling, please I'd love to know where you've read that... |
Err, sentiment against the Pound has been almost relentlessly bearish for the past 60 years.
You could get $3 to £1 in 1956...
Around $2 to $1 in 1976...
And you will get around $1 to £1 in the second half of 2016.
Britain's exports are plunging, manufacturing is collapsing, services are starting to crumble, oil is running out, public and private debt is stratospheric, interest rates are falling, and the UK is breaking up.
Nobody wants to own the Pound.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I will provide a safe home for all these poor unwanted pounds 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Only we're not.
The organisation I work for is international, UK-located, research-based and in extremely good financial health, and its outlook is excellent. We give employment to thousands and are growing fast.
Re-structuring is happening, for sure, and manufacturing needs to be aided by a sensible industrial strategy by Boles at BIS - not command economy, but Singapore-style brokering and sensible stimulus, IMHO.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Mon 4-07-16 0:45; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| philwig wrote: |
If you're smart you'd have hedged your currency risk. If you're stupid you'd have voted Brexit, so you can enjoy your "independence" and not worry about the cost.
You could go to Scotland though - I think that may well be a good location all things considered. |
At least until Scotland adopts the Euro... of course there is a couple of in between steps that need to happen first.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@DrLawn, that would be really funny if it wasn't so bloody tragic.
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As long as there is snow in winter people who call themselves skiers, will go skiing.
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| HeidiAmsterdam wrote: |
| ... At least until Scotland adopts the Euro... of course there is a couple of in between steps that need to happen first. |
You read my mind. You have to laugh. They probably will "get their country back". I'm not sure which country the brexit people had in mind, specifically.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@philwig, ...hmm...gbp down against chf and euro.
Make your mind up ruling party - May, Gove or someone obscure...
Labour - grief.
Lib Dems - who?
UKIP - our '...our job is done here...' (Apparently...)
And then the gbp might settle down.
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Just fyg, FTSE up 6 pts at the moment, DAX down 188
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FAQ
