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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
esaw1 wrote:
@davidof, that came across as very patronising


Good!
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It's same reason Derby can be dry whilst it is pouring down in Manchester, and yes I was taught about the effect of topography on weather in GCSE Geography Toofy Grin
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@mr_merc, maybe it was pratronising but it was also a very correct and concise answer Smile
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mr_merc wrote:
@davidof that's patronising, particularly as I had an A in Geography at A level. I'm not sure how not knowing the topography of sestriere and L2A etc. signposts that I didn't 'do geography'. I was wanting an answer from an expert. Shame.


I think the wrong person answered then. You need to get a proper explanation fron Noza.
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@mr_merc, NehNeh rolling eyes
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So is there absolutely no hope for any snow in the Arlberg between Christmas in New Year's? I'm heading over with friends on 12/27 from the US -- I know, I decide to ski in Europe (I prefer it) and the US gets dumped on. Should I hold out any hope or just stop checking the weather?

I'll have to double down on apres-ski, I guess.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The Alps badly need snow.

Many lower stations below 1800m are struggling, particularly in France.

Megeve, for example, has so far seen December snowfall -95% below-average.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@ArlbergMeister, there's always hope! But to honest Christmas is 8 days out and even that is hard to get much of a feel for. We're stuck in a rut at present, but change will come and it's really unlikely St Anton will run out of beer even if it is very dry.
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Thanks for the encouragement @nozawaonsen. The beer shall indeed flow, but let's hope the snow does as well.

I've skied in Europe many times (did a season teaching in St. Moritz after University) and I've always told my American friends that Europe is a better time -- bigger resorts, better food, good apres. It's their first time so of course I want the conditions to be great, but you can't control the weather alas.

Still, fingers crossed!
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ArlbergMeister wrote:
Thanks for the encouragement @nozawaonsen. The beer shall indeed flow, but let's hope the snow does as well.

I've skied in Europe many times (did a season teaching in St. Moritz after University) and I've always told my American friends that Europe is a better time -- bigger resorts, better food, good apres. It's their first time so of course I want the conditions to be great, but you can't control the weather alas.

Still, fingers crossed!


I've never skied in North America and the one thing I expect when I do is more snowfall! At least in the Arlberg they will get a good sense of European Apres. Shame if you don't get conditions as the off piste is superb there. No chance you could relocate to Aosta valley (assuming it does snow there as suggested)? Prob not worth it in fairness because conditions have been so poor that it will prob take a few dumps to make off piste viable.

Stick to St Anton and the beer.
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@8611 Yeah we're locked into St. Anton (plus it is my favorite spot). We're booked at a friend's place so we can't bail out on him now.

Yes, superb off piste. I've had some of my best days there (an early April day in 2006 is particularly memorable following a massive storm). Hoping we'll get a few flakes so that it'll at least be white and feel like a proper ski holiday.

At least the apres-ski rivals the beer.

Hoping we all get a huge, unexpected storm and are waist-deep and wearing ear-to-ear grins next week.
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@8611 the apres-ski rivals the off piste, that is!
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@nozawaonsen, Quite right about the NAO, anyway the skill of forecasting blocking on any model is quite low, and we only have climatology to go on that tells us that a strong vortex is good for Europe, taking into account the vortex's current positioning. But also I doubt the vortex is going to be strong for a prolonged period of time, which is the only way for it to have any effect on blocking.
WellingtonBoot wrote:

Yes. I guess the confusion might be coming from the fact that sometimes a strong but amplified jet contributes to strong northern blocking.

This explains it pretty well, instead of sometimes, it's most of the time.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@WellingtonBoot
There is quite a difference in the GFS and ECM at the moment. I would suggest two reasons for this. One GFS initialisation data is getting worst. And second the fact that we are not really in proper winter mode yet. Until proper winter mode starts, the charts will be all over the shop.
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@Jellybeans1000, Yeah there is a big difference, and the point of divergence is creeping closer. GFS keeps getting drier, and while ECM has also unfortunately dried up a bit today, it still brings several spells of decent snow to most of the Alps during the Christmas period. Hopefully its drier look today isn't the start of a trend towards the GFS outcome.

We'll probably get a decent, if rough, idea of Christmas weather in the next 2-3 days - crunch time is coming...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snowforecast seems quite bullish about a decent fall in Zermatt in the next few days. Any thoughts?
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Snowfall on Tuesday for western Italy is intensifying on GFS. This is likely to spill across up into Zermatt which should also see heavy snow and possibly (though less certainly) into Espace Killy.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
And its going to get rather cold?
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@Jonpim, a cold few days, then seasonal.

ECM still looking more interesting from Boxing Day, though as that is 8-10 days out and given the lack of consensus between the US (GFS) and European (ECM) model there is a great deal of uncertainty.


http://youtube.com/v/XFX8S9aAgvw
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Waking up this morning to an even drier Mayrhofen GFS Sad

Is there any hope in next couple of weeks?
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@Bennyboy1, well...

Page One, post one...

I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.

As the post above sets out beyond seven days there is considerable difference appearing between ECM and GFS. That uncertainty translates into... hope! No certainty that good times are just round the corner, but uncertainty that bad times will continue. That's not bad for Sunday morning.
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@nozawaonsen, I will take that as hope!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Obergurgl now showing a bit of snow due tomorrow but nothing in Ischgl so something Italian based going on... the resorts aren't that far apart

I'm looking at these two as they are where I'm going this year... I like Austria but also starting to like height (quality of snow, as well as reliability of snow) hence the choice...
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@buchanan101, actually nothing to do with the Italian Job...


http://youtube.com/v/8g_GeQR8fJo

Light snow pushing through central Austria today from NE.

Here it is on WRF

21z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=27#model

00z http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=30#model
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Prato Nevoso is the place to go.

3m forecast in the next 3 days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Prato-Nevoso/6day/mid
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WRF snowfall over next 72 hours.

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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
snowheads68 wrote:
Prato Nevoso is the place to go.

3m forecast in the next 3 days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Prato-Nevoso/6day/mid


Imagine that, all that snow and not another British person to be found, it would be like being abroad Toofy Grin How much are those flights to nice?
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Snowfall on Tuesday for western Italy is intensifying on GFS. This is likely to spill across up into Zermatt which should also see heavy snow and possibly (though less certainly) into Espace Killy.


I hope rather than spilling into Zermatt it heavily vomits on Zermatt for the entirety of Monday evening, Tuesday and Wednesday!

Bring on the snow Toofy Grin
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Wow! I was being conservative before... 100cm looks good for parts of Western Italy!
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@Jellybeans1000, in your opinion and comparing models does Zermatt, Saas Fee etc have a good chance of significant cm also?
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Any danger (hope) of this storm moving slightly NW and reaching resorts closer to Geneva?
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Run28 wrote:
@Jellybeans1000, in your opinion and comparing models does Zermatt, Saas Fee etc have a good chance of significant cm also?

I would say 60-80cm approximately from GFS and EC. I would call that a good chance in some serious cms. Most of the mesoscale I have seen says 80-100cm.
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@mikeycharlton, Sadly very unlikely it won't get past Mt Blanc .

When you get fronts in the Western Italian alps coming from the gulf of Genoa they rarely cross the Alpine divide apart from the far end 0f Val d'Isere , parts of French southern Alps and Maurianne valley .

Many times in Ste Foy have I watched heavy snow falling in Italy next valley on with only flurries making it to us .

The resorts around Geneva need weather fronts from the west or north west to profit .
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Better described below

Updated: 10.25am Sunday 18 December 2016 - Heavy snow for some south-western parts of the Alps early this week.

There have been some important developments in the weather in the Alps since we last reported on Friday. Today, a weak cold front will bring a little light snow to some north-eastern parts of the Alps (chiefly eastern Austria). More importantly, however, a rapidly developing area of low pressure in the Mediterranean will bring heavy snow to some south-western parts of the Alps between Monday and Wednesday.
Bergfex chart showing expected snowfall totals between now and Wednesday – Weather to ski – Today in the Alps, 18 December 2016 Lots of snow anticipated in some south-western parts of the Alps this week. These are the expected snowfall totals between now and Wednesday – Image: bergfex.com
This “south-western snow” will start tomorrow, then peak on Tuesday before dying away again later on Wednesday. It will be most significant in the far south-western Italian Alps (e.g. Limone, Prato Nevoso) where over 1m of snow is possible.

Other areas that are expected to catch significant snow include the French Queyras (e.g. Abriès), the Milky Way (e.g. Sestriere, Montgenèvre), the upper Maurienne (e.g. Bonneval-sur-Arc, Val Cenis), Val d’Isère, Cervinia, Pila, the Monte Rosa region, Zermatt and Saas-Fee. However, as is always the case in this particular set-up, snowfall quantities are hard to predict. How far the snow will spill over the border into France and Switzerland is also hard to forecast. For example, Val d’Isère may get a moderate fall while just down the road Ste-Foy gets next to nothing.

Aside from a dusting of snow in the north-eastern Alps today, the northern half of the Alps will again see very little snow from this latest storm. The eastern side of the southern Alps (e.g. the Dolomites) won’t see a great deal either.

Looking a bit further ahead and, after a mostly fine end to the week in all Alpine regions, the weather looks like breaking down from the west towards the weekend. This could bring some welcome snow to some northern and western parts of the Alps in time for Christmas, but there is still considerable uncertainty at this time – to be confirmed.

In the meantime, there is of course plenty of skiing to be had across the Alps, even if most resorts are heavily dependent on artificial snow. The best natural cover is at altitude in the south-western Alps (e.g. Sestriere, Montgenèvre, Pila and the Monte Rosa region), where snow levels will increase significantly again this week.
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Beyond the snowfall on Tuesday GFS 06z is still a dry run with light snow around 28/29 December.
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Hi,
Any signs of a storm from the north west direction. Heading out to la plagne on NYE and keeping everything crossed for a dump before then!
Last time i did see a bit of a front coming in around 25/26th Dec but that seems to have disappeared now.
Thanks
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@bhs1922, see above. GFS 06z would bring something on 28/29 (though that is 10-11 days out). ECM a little more promising, but the bottom line is that the answer is (as it has been for several weeks)... within the reliable time frame the outlook for the majority of the northern Alps is for continued dry weather.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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@Rob Mackley,

Yep looks like Limone, Mondole (Prato Nevoso) will get the best of it (certainly within the 1500-2000m range maybe significantly more snowfall here than elsewhere)! Anyone looking to book a ski holiday for the next few weeks will have an even easier choice to make on where to go as the places with the better snow thus far are getting even more and the rest very little.
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Strong Föhn for E Alps Mon-Wed?

Should be short-lived.
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@snowheads68, with low pressure to the South of the Alps (pushing through the Mediterranean) and high pressure to the north of the Alps you are pretty much guaranteeing Föhn winds.

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