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snow report / forecast variability

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I am getting daily email from ski club with snow report / forecast for our upcoming trip to Gressoney.

Yesterday it reported 20cm fresh snow 90cm in next 9 days.

Today it still reports 20cm fresh snow but a measly 7cm in next 9 days.

Is the weather particularly changeable right now? That seems a massive change (to me) in a forecast of 24hrs.
snow conditions
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@NickyJ, yes, evolution of weather is uncertain at the moment and the models are flipping around with their Easter forecasts. Just hope you don't get rain, which is one of the possibilities. There's a big spread on GFS. I wouldn't get excited or cast down about specific forecasts, which rarely give any indicator of confidence.
ski holidays
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Thanks Pam, good news is none of the long term forecasts are forecasting temperatures anywhere near the 21degrees we were (insanely) getting in Feb. At least I know my boots are waterproof even when submerged in about 10cm of water.
ski holidays
 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
I'm going to Obertauern tomorrow and I've got 3 different forecasts:


http://www.accuweather.com/en/at/obertauern/30751/month/30751?view=table

http://www.meteoexploration.com/forecasts/Obertauern/

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Obertauern/6day/bot

Been checking each day for the past week and it's been different everytime, it's mountain weather, it can change at the drop of a hat.

I'll just wait and see what it's when I look outside each morning.
latest report
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Most of the precipitation next week will be from Spring (or April if you like) showers, giboulée in French. If one parks over your head you may get quite a few cm, if on the next run of the models it is parked next door they will get it and you won't. But because apps digitise everything it is easy to get excited and then disappointed, which is way I prefer written general forecasts to an app based picture, as they can give some sense of what is going to happen and how likely that may be. Of note, Meteo France are saying that the confidence level of the forecast is 2 out of 5 for Easter weekend and 1 out of 5 for Easter Monday, which translates as "anything could happen". Very Happy
snow report



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