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climate change - or just change?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Don't panic Mr Mainwaring!
Or are we all doomed?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

Letelemarker, you must be aware of the date you chose (18 years) - the hottest year of the 20th century. Starting from that point changes your graph. But take it from further back, you see a clear trend.


Yep I am aware of that, and if you go back further you will find that that it goes back up, like a sine wave, the point I was trying to make was that according to the models co2 increases temperature increases...no pauses.

The heat hiding in the deep ocean was a new thing...make of that what you will, I'm sure you believe that large sections of warm water sink from the surface to the deep darkest depths of the ocean and stay there Puzzled


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Thu 10-12-15 6:11; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Look it up. There is a conveyer belt carrying massive volumes of water all over the earth - a small part of it is the Gulf Stream - that sinks and rises at various points. This belt is the means of taking warm water to depths in the oceans - salinity is often the driver of sinking and rising, rather than temperature.
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@letelemarker, it's called the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation.
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@MSG101,

If you send out a mailing asking how effective mailshots are, 60-70% will say that they are very effective. But what it won't tell you is that only 4% of your target audience actually responded. The point:

Quote:

but the IPCC reports are showing that the science is settled. Those denying it are the flat-earthers, I'm afraid.


If you only ask those who's working life is funded by the notion of 'climate change' it is unsurprising that they say the science is settled.
Whilst I admit to having lost interest in its latest offering; the 4th report was heavily criticized for eliminating content from dissenters whose academic credentials were equally as robust as those whose predictions were based on worst case scenario multiplied by worst case scenario and so on.
There are those who will point to solid evidence that says it’s the other way round – it’s rising temperature that is causing increased CO2, and that there are no discernable rises in temperature at the stratification boundaries where CO2 is at its most dense.

Even assuming all the above is nonsense and you are proven correct, it will still be the absolute levels of gases that need controlling, not the output of some wee wee@nt economy in the East Atlantic, so unless and until the USA and China come to the table the argument is moot. As an individual I am getting hacked off with supporters claiming the answer to the problem is to charge me an extra £10/£20/£30 tax on my flight to Europe.

The largest amount of man-made CO2 comes from the human body itself, so when is one of the protagonists for change going to have the balls to stand up and say to the countries of the African Continent and the Indian Sub-continent: you have got to stop producing people?

I’m guessing never, on the basis that no-one is going to get a bursary to study something so patently none-PC, irrespective of the value of the science
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How do you plan on stopping population growth in India and Sub-Saharan Africa? I've heard some absurd statements in my time but this is a good one! Thanks to colonialism, most of these countries are an absolute mess. Furthermore the problem is mainly that the developed world and China have too high CO2 emissions. Obviously as countries such as India become more developed, they will emit much higher CO2 emissions, but at the moment the largely poor populations in the Indian sub-continent and Sub-Saharan Africa have low per capita emissions.
Furthermore, the UK is not some small economy in the East Atlantic, but a part of the EU (at least for the moment). Why should you not pay an extra 10/20/30 quid tax on the top of your airfare if that money can be put towards helping to lower the effects of climate change? Does it greatly affect your life that whenever you partake in an extremely expensive sport you have to pay an extra few quid for the flight over there? It's less than the price of a couple of drinks in some French resorts.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:

Look it up. There is a conveyer belt carrying massive volumes of water all over the earth - a small part of it is the Gulf Stream - that sinks and rises at various points. This belt is the means of taking warm water to depths in the oceans - salinity is often the driver of sinking and rising, rather than temperature.


Yes, but it just doesn't just stay hanging around down there like some kind of heat storage mechanism, it circulates and leaves the ocean via evaporation, leading to the formation of clouds. these processes turn the heat energy in to other forms. It makes no sense in my mind that heat can be trapped down at the bottom of the ocean as they they say and just stay there?!

Nasa even say that there is no increase in deep ocean temperature...so where did the heat go?? because according to the RSS the atmosphere hasn't warmed like I said in the last 18 years.

https://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-study-finds-earth-s-ocean-abyss-has-not-warmed/#.VmkRz4QocWk
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letelemarker wrote:
There has been no significant warming for the last 18 or so years according to the RSS data set, The UAH shows a tiny percentage of warming. Over the last 18 years or so man made co2 levels have continued to climb from about 350 ppm to just under 400 ppm.

What does that tell you? either the satellite data sets are utter rubbish or co2 is a pretty crap greenhouse gas?

Now where did I leave my tin foil hat....



It has happened before. Nothing new there.

The global average temperature has majorly fallen or paused 5 times previously in the past ~150 years.

Each fall or pause lasted around 10-20 years. Followed each time by a bigger up-spike that lasted around 10-40 years.

Those 5 down-cycles have not stopped the overall 150-year trend being aggressively "up" -- with the global average temperature anomaly rising a whopping +8c in that timeframe.
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@Whitegold, I was with you to the last sentence - out by a factor of 10!

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl
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MadMountainMan wrote:
Quote:

You can look at past data, but its just that past, it has no bearing on what will happen in the future. just like when people say its been a hot summer this means we will get a cold winter.

Past climate absolutely does have a bearing on the future. As in everything, understanding the history helps predict the future. Denying that is like saying just because water turns to ice at 0C yesterday doesn't mean it will tomorrow. Of course past data has bearing. And of course the planet's temperature has increased and decreased many times in our past history but NEVER as fast as it is doing now.


I've no axe to grind either way, apart from a hatred of some of the waste we see. But I do hate bad science and the quote above is clearly incorrect if you look at [url]data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/[/url] . The period 1910 to 1940 looks very similar to the period 1980 to 2010.

Just saying.
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^ and not only that. The onset of the Younger Dryas (a mere 14k years ago) was much more sudden (the recovery also) and truly devastating.

Quote:
The change to glacial conditions at the onset of the younger Dryas in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 12,900–11,500 BP in calendar years has been argued to have been quite abrupt.[11] in sharp contrast to the warming of the preceding Older Dryas interstadial. It has been inferred that its end occurred over a period of a decade or so,[12] but the onset may have been faster.[13] Thermally fractionated nitrogen and argon isotope data from Greenland ice core GISP2 indicate that the summit of Greenland was approximately 15 °C (27 °F) colder during the Younger Dryas[12] than today. In the UK, coleopteran (beetle) fossil evidence suggests that mean annual temperature dropped to −5 °C (23 °F),[14] and periglacial conditions prevailed in lowland areas, while icefields and glaciers formed in upland areas.[15] Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of abrupt climate change has been experienced since its end.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas#Abrupt_climate_change

The NEVER in the original post may be capitalised - it is also dead wrong.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@madlondoner,
Quote:

How do you plan on stopping population growth in India and Sub-Saharan Africa? I've heard some absurd statements in my time but this is a good one!

I don't, I'm not a politician but it isn't absurd to suggest population growth is a significant driver in using up the planet's natural resources.
Quote:

Thanks to colonialism, most of these countries are an absolute mess.

It can equally be argued that colonialism has done a great deal of good for these countries - would North America or Australia/New Zealand have got where they are without European colonisation?
Quote:

Furthermore, the UK is not some small economy in the East Atlantic, but a part of the EU (at least for the moment). Why should you not pay an extra 10/20/30 quid tax on the top of your airfare if that money can be put towards helping to lower the effects of climate change? Does it greatly affect your life that whenever you partake in an extremely expensive sport you have to pay an extra few quid for the flight over there? It's less than the price of a couple of drinks in some French resorts.


Maybe so, but it is aggravating to pay for something which probably has no such effect - have you seen any evidence that these taxes are doing anything to mitigate either the causes or the effects of climate change?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
andyrew wrote:
MadMountainMan wrote:
Quote:

You can look at past data, but its just that past, it has no bearing on what will happen in the future. just like when people say its been a hot summer this means we will get a cold winter.

Past climate absolutely does have a bearing on the future. As in everything, understanding the history helps predict the future. Denying that is like saying just because water turns to ice at 0C yesterday doesn't mean it will tomorrow. Of course past data has bearing. And of course the planet's temperature has increased and decreased many times in our past history but NEVER as fast as it is doing now.


I've no axe to grind either way, apart from a hatred of some of the waste we see. But I do hate bad science and the quote above is clearly incorrect if you look at [url]data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/[/url] . The period 1910 to 1940 looks very similar to the period 1980 to 2010.

Just saying.

Oh my Lord are we bringing that one up again. andyrew, I suggest you read the whole thread. I made that comment and then apologised for it's incorrectness ages ago.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Gordyjh wrote:

Quote:

Thanks to colonialism, most of these countries are an absolute mess.

It can equally be argued that colonialism has done a great deal of good for these countries - would North America or Australia/New Zealand have got where they are without European colonisation?

Please! I know it's off topic but yes those four countries (I presume you are including Canada) might be very successful today but I don't think you can say the same for the native peoples of those countries!
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@MadMountainMan,
Quote:

Please! I know it's off topic but yes those four countries (I presume you are including Canada) might be very successful today but I don't think you can say the same for the native peoples of those countries!


Of course Canada is included, although the point holds for the whole of the Americas. I was talking about the countries, not their indigenous populations.

In fact it occurs to me that although there can be a tricky period of transition between being a colony and independence, this doesn't actually mean that the former colonies of Asia and Africa won't eventually work out how to make the most of the golden legacy left by their former colonial masters!
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@Gordyjh, Hong Kong and Singapore surpassed the UK some time ago!

Whatever the pluses and minuses of colonialism, it had pretty well ended 50 years ago, and everywhere that is free from warfare is much better off now than then. Globalisation, including the spread of energy-intensive industry and the availability of transportation, has much to do with that. Making energy more expensive is the flip side of bearing down on CO2 emissions, and hits the poorest hardest. Hopefully, renewables will be truly competitive soon (not that solar powered planes will get beyond toys!).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@laundryman,
Quote:

Whatever the pluses and minuses of colonialism, it had pretty well ended 50 years ago, and everywhere that is free from warfare is much better off now than then.

Many of them are still in that tricky transitional period - it took the USA over 100 years to stop killing the natives!
Quote:

Making energy more expensive is the flip side of bearing down on CO2 emissions, and hits the poorest hardest.

Absolutely true. The question is what to invest our time and R&D effort in - Many smallish rivers in this country had water-powered mills on them without disturbing the rest of the environment too badly and it may be that we should convert these mills to power generation. The problem to my mind is that everyone wants to do things at a macro level, eg instead of new builds having solar panels on their roofs we see people covering huge acreages with solar panels and instead of communities maybe having a single wind turbine for its own power, we see forests of unsightly monstrosities blighting the landscape.

I must go and lie down in a darkened room and stop hyperventilating!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The point is that growth in third world countries doesn't have as much impact as you think at the moment as they are living in dirt poverty and not using many resources.

A problem is that the west got to it's level of development but doing what it damn wanted with the planet and it is hard to say that poor countries can not use extensive resources to advance.
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The world has gone through climate change far more dramatic than we will ever experience. I was in Ireland the other day visiting an old friend, and his house looks out onto the Burren, which was once under a tropical sea, then scraped about by glaciers, and is now neither tropical nor frozen. None of that was caused by man.

That said, it's probably silly IMO to think that seven billion people burning everything in sight and pumping stuff into the atmosphere is having no effect.

The questions are surely how serious is the effect, is it positive or negative, and if it's negative are we doing the right things to mitigate it?

(I don't know the answers to these questions but I do suspect a lot of the stuff that world governments are doing is more about controlling us and leeching us for revenue than addressing the issue. If it's not, why do politicians all live in big houses, drive big cars, and fly everywhere?)
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@northernsoulboy, 40,000 in Paris for a fortnight of COP-21. They are not practising what they preach.
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@northernsoulboy, Of course the world has gone through more dramatic climate change then we will ever see (though not necessarily our descendants) however I'd hazard a guess that most of those dramatic changes came with significant extinction events as some life forms adapted and others failed to adapt.

The fact that it has happened before doesn't mean we, in our current modern rather soft form, would fair particularly well if we started having such changes again.
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MadMountainMan wrote:

The fact that it has happened before doesn't mean we, in our current modern rather soft form, would fair particularly well if we started having such changes again.


Unless it's a mini ice age... then most of the snowboards would the kit to survive for a while snowHead
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
MadMountainMan wrote:
@northernsoulboy, Of course the world has gone through more dramatic climate change then we will ever see (though not necessarily our descendants) however I'd hazard a guess that most of those dramatic changes came with significant extinction events as some life forms adapted and others failed to adapt.

The fact that it has happened before doesn't mean we, in our current modern rather soft form, would fair particularly well if we started having such changes again.


I take your point, but I only raise the historical stuff by way of saying that this suggests to me that inputs other than carbon emissions are probably needed for really dramatic climate changes. I don't think anyone's talking about Ireland being under a tropical sea or a hundred metres of ice in the near future (I don't know what you mean by descendants, but I guess it could happen in the next few hundred million years), and with the kind of changes they're talking about I think we'd fare ok? We're pretty much the most adaptive species around. I agree we're a bit soft but man doesn't take long to relocate his inner animal when push comes to shove. It's just that for most people it never really comes to shove!
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This little video is worth a watch


http://youtube.com/v/DGOMtTQFxh0
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Brrr, must have been cold up in Greenland, or maybe not. Interesting article, including some interesting stats from the Church.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/19/debunking-the-vikings-werent-victims-of-climate-myth/
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northernsoulboy wrote:
The world has gone through climate change far more dramatic than we will ever experience. I was in Ireland the other day visiting an old friend, and his house looks out onto the Burren, which was once under a tropical sea, then scraped about by glaciers, and is now neither tropical nor frozen. None of that was caused by man.

That said, it's probably silly IMO to think that seven billion people burning everything in sight and pumping stuff into the atmosphere is having no effect.

The questions are surely how serious is the effect, is it positive or negative, and if it's negative are we doing the right things to mitigate it?

(I don't know the answers to these questions but I do suspect a lot of the stuff that world governments are doing is more about controlling us and leeching us for revenue than addressing the issue. If it's not, why do politicians all live in big houses, drive big cars, and fly everywhere?)


This is more or less my layman's view on the subject too. No scientist (and most definitely no politician or industrialist!) is ever likely to convince me that our recent global industrialisation isn't going to have any effect on our future climate. Whether or not it's going to significantly affect the climate during my own tiny lifetime I really don't know and nobody else appears to know either. It's easy to just bury your head in the sand, keep jetting around the world and buy truck loads of s*** off the internet! Politicians only think ahead in blocks of 5 years and their own careers, so their primary motive is not to make the world a better place in a thousand years time. Scientists tend to be more genuine in nature, but as mentioned in this thread, are often paid to come up with the reports that their more "political" employers might like to read.

I read somewhere an interesting article that was pondering our self-importance (as in human race). It was basically suggesting that the Earth being already 5 or 6 billion years old, will quite likely just shrug us off as annoying little bugs at some point sooner or later. I quite suspect we might just be bringing that point forward just like a teenage smoker not really thinking about the real possibility of dying of lung cancer in maybe 40 or 50 years time. Depressing when you think of it like that, but for now life goes on and I'm happy to contribute to anything that potentially postpones the end of the human race for a little longer!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
MadMountainMan wrote:
Gordyjh wrote:

Quote:

Thanks to colonialism, most of these countries are an absolute mess.

It can equally be argued that colonialism has done a great deal of good for these countries - would North America or Australia/New Zealand have got where they are without European colonisation?

Please! I know it's off topic but yes those four countries (I presume you are including Canada) might be very successful today but I don't think you can say the same for the native peoples of those countries!


OT, but a lot depends on what you mean by 'the native peoples of those countries'. Usually what happened is the locals killed off most of the other indigenes over a given number of centuries, and then Europeans arrived in about 1500-1700 and showed them how it was really done. The Aztecs, the Commanche, the Maori - these were all warlike, dominant people, not peaceful hunter-gatherers. I'd say the Moriori probably preferred Brummies and Scousers to Maori - at least the Brits didn't eat them. The Brits, themselves, obviously having gone through various waves of settlement, conquest, near-genocide and so on.
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northernsoulboy wrote:
MadMountainMan wrote:
Gordyjh wrote:

Quote:

Thanks to colonialism, most of these countries are an absolute mess.

It can equally be argued that colonialism has done a great deal of good for these countries - would North America or Australia/New Zealand have got where they are without European colonisation?

Please! I know it's off topic but yes those four countries (I presume you are including Canada) might be very successful today but I don't think you can say the same for the native peoples of those countries!


OT, but a lot depends on what you mean by 'the native peoples of those countries'. Usually what happened is the locals killed off most of the other indigenes over a given number of centuries, and then Europeans arrived in about 1500-1700 and showed them how it was really done. The Aztecs, the Commanche, the Maori - these were all warlike, dominant people, not peaceful hunter-gatherers. I'd say the Moriori probably preferred Brummies and Scousers to Maori - at least the Brits didn't eat them. The Brits, themselves, obviously having gone through various waves of settlement, conquest, near-genocide and so on.

I don't have any romantic notions about the 'noble savage'; I was just stating that in most of the countries named the descendants of the people that were living there (warlike or not at the time) do not currently typically share in the success of the countries today. Maybe I'm completely wrong and the Native Americans, Maoris and Aborigines are all in a state of complete harmonious equality with the descendants of the colonists. Just saying.
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You know it makes sense.
Didn't realise this was going on still as a thread. News from two days ago pretty much sorts the whole thing.

Debate is finished, facts have been fully established. Recent NASA report states bluntly and clearly:

Quote:

"Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius)."

"The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1.0 degree Celsius) since the late-19th century, a change largely driven by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere."

"Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 15 of the 16 warmest years on record occurring since 2001. Last year was the first time the global average temperatures were 1 degree Celsius or more above the 1880-1899 average."

http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-record-shattering-global-warm-temperatures-in-2015


Done. Its just fact




To speed up any responses to this, please make clear to use the following pro-forma post outline

"I believe this is the biggest conspiracy since the moon-landings were set up in an Arizona Warehouse because....

a) Elvis isn't dead and is using extensive contacts in government to fund his retirement through renewable energy subsidies

b) This whole climate change thing is just a way of distracting us from the truth about 9/11

c) The earth is flat, we just need to turn it over when it gets too hot so what is all the fuss"


*replace as appropriate with your own carefully reasoned versions of these
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@Pynch,these may help Madeye-Smiley
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HutToHut wrote:
@Pynch,these may help Madeye-Smiley


Yep - a great resource for people looking to fill in the pro-forma list. Very Happy
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Pynch, pretty closed minded of you to think that, but each to there own. Why do you have such a strong view? and are you just assuming that people who deny that AGW has been overstated believe that the moon landings were set up? sounds like you would make a great climate scientist, they also love an assumption.
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@Pynch, There will still be those who will deny this is global warming because the Earth was hotter 100,000/1,000,000/10,000,000 etc. years ago so there's nothing to worry about, despite the fact that modern technology dependant man wasn't around then. They'll post links to graphs with very carefully selected start points and so convince themselves if not the rest of us that it's all a load of hot air! Toofy Grin Twisted Evil
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@MadMountainMan, ...Haha! you mean a bit like this? (you wrote it on page 3)

"I'm not sure what your point is @letelemarker, I think that graph shows that despite some breaks the general trend is up (0.5 degrees since 1957 or nearly 1 degree since 1976). Of course we don't know everything and of course it is a chaotic system but even in that limited set of data you have chosen to illustrate (which like all pieces of denial evidence only shows the bit of data you want to show rather than say results for the last 1000 years) the general trend is still up.

If you look at the graph for the last thousand years you get a very different picture.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/90/CO2-Temp.png/800px-CO2-Temp.png?width=450

The two pauses of your graph are insignificant in the greater picture"


Just saying Very Happy
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@MadMountainMan, hah - quite Toofy Grin



letelemarker wrote:


@Pynch, pretty closed minded of you to think that, but each to there own. Why do you have such a strong view? and are you just assuming that people who deny that AGW has been overstated believe that the moon landings were set up? sounds like you would make a great climate scientist, they also love an assumption.


So if you believe that NASA is reputable and capable enough to get people to the moon and in to space, why do you think they are lying when they publish climate data, and an interpretation of that data, that states - bluntly - that the earth is warming up?
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You'd think that NASA's Goddard Institute for SPACE Studies would use satellites for measuring the planet's temps, but no they use a bunch a thermometers on the ground so thinly spread out they have to make up readings for areas that aren't covered and then adjust the readings.
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letelemarker wrote:
@MadMountainMan, ...Haha! you mean a bit like this? (you wrote it on page 3)

"I'm not sure what your point is @letelemarker, I think that graph shows that despite some breaks the general trend is up (0.5 degrees since 1957 or nearly 1 degree since 1976). Of course we don't know everything and of course it is a chaotic system but even in that limited set of data you have chosen to illustrate (which like all pieces of denial evidence only shows the bit of data you want to show rather than say results for the last 1000 years) the general trend is still up.

If you look at the graph for the last thousand years you get a very different picture.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/90/CO2-Temp.png/800px-CO2-Temp.png?width=450

The two pauses of your graph are insignificant in the greater picture"


Just saying Very Happy

Yes actually funnily enough that was exactly my point; in response to earlier graphs I simply showed that another graph could be shown that described exactly the opposite of the first. Show a graph for the last hundred thousand and you'll get another picture again. So my point stands that people will simply produce graphs with carefully selected start points designed to reinforce their point.

Just saying... Toofy Grin
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
There is no point to this argument and I can't really be bothered. You have your view I have mine. The graph you showed has been proven to be false

This graph on the other hand http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ is from satellite data, there is an up trend from last year but we are in an el nino. It hasn't been adjusted like the land based data sets, it has been constant. The measuring stations haven't been moved, built around etc.

All of the time that the satellite data has been collected, co2 has continued to rise temperature have not. This goes against the theory of AGW. That alone should be enough to cast doubt over the theory, in my opinion.

I just hope@MadMountainMan, that you cycled over to the alps and skin up instead of getting on that co2 producing lift system! Very Happy
ski holidays
 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
As you say - pointless.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@letelemarker, The reality is I (and pretty much everyone else) would love to have your view, where there is nothing wrong at all with our behaviour - even at our current most populous state.

I would be very, very pleased for the whole thing to be proven to be some kind of vague Government conspiracy (deliberate, or skewed by overzealous spending priorities).

But don't you find it a little odd for the oil and gas industry be comfortably pitched as plucky outsiders fighting for truth in this view of reality?
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