 Poster: A snowHead
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This is very bad news for UK winter forecasting.
I wonder if it means an end to the fantastic bbc weather app which has transformed trip planning here ?
No indication who is taking over the contract or when but I carnt see how it will improve accuracy. Expect a dumb down
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34031785 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Sounds like it has not been put out to tender yet. In theory the Met office could still win the tender?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Met Office website is pretty good for on the day forecasts but there are many other websites that seem to be more reliable for longer term forecasts. Do they all use different forms of forecasting?
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Sounds like the selection criteria for the tendering process are Service and Value. The outcome will depend on the weighting given to each. No doubt there is someone who can do it cheaper, but what value do the Beeb put on service ? What serious competitors are there ?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I expect more entertainment and a lot of dumbing down in the TV presentations. The major forecasting models are available to most companies but I will miss the current BBC forecasting style. It is understandable for the masses but there is more stuff for those of us that know a bit about weather and rely on it for trend information - and in that I include farmers, fliers, walkers, sailors, gardeners and skiers
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I think it's a shame, too, but the forecasts have been dumbed down for a while now, partly because they are given a ridiculously short length of time to convey what is sometimes a complex picture.
It's years since the surface pressure isobars disappeared as a routine part of the forecast.
I always use the Met Office site direct - I wonder if that will change? I'd pay (a bit.....) for a decent forecast if necessary.
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@halfhand, I think I have read somewhere that Carol Kirkwood is a BBC employee.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I think the Met office has been in decline and loosing credibility for some time. Not to mention all that money on a super computer and the forecasts seem to be getting worse.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Does TUPE apply 
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You know it makes sense.
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The Met Office its self will still exist, and continue to forecast in the same format, the BBC isn't their only client or format. They simply won't be on the BBC, forecasting in what is presumably a BBC format.
So we will still be able to get forecasts for from Met Office for Skiing, walking, flying, holiday destinations, farming etc. Just not as broadcasts.
Agree that severing the link with 'aunty' is sad, however finances are constantly under scrutiny (especially for a publicly funded body), to secure 'best value'. Personally I would the BBC weather and world services to be considered a public service, and funded entirely by
government/taxation.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| stewart woodward wrote: |
| Does TUPE apply |
I did read that the presenters would move across to work for the new service but I don't know if TUPE applies.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Quote: |
Personally I would the BBC weather and world services to be considered a public service, and funded entirely by
government/taxation
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but that doesn't make any difference to the need to get best VFM.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Who judges what is VFM, the broadcaster, or the users (you and I)?
VFM is often decided as with the BBC within the constraints of a financial envelope, which
as we know is forever becoming smaller. The danger is that VFM is interpreted as 'cheapest'
for a limited sett of criteria or services.
Do we trust the BBC to make the right decision, or do we feel that they are cornered into making decisions around cost saving
just to appear viable?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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What if an alternative provider could provide better quality forecasts for less money? Surely it would be hard for anyone to say that wasn't better value for money?
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Surely anyone watching general TV forecasts when most of us carry a device giving us hour by hour for a specific location are only interested in the weather in a general sense. I'm personally agnostic as to the data source behind forecasts. I current use the BBC weather app but could happily revert to the Met Office one.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
I'm personally agnostic as to the data source behind forecasts.
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I'm agnostic as to the source of the data, but I always look at the isobars as well as the forecast, to get a feel for how things are developing. Especially if a decision as to whether, and where, to go sailing depends on the judgement.....
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@Dave of the Marmottes, But for trends and assessing the odds of what you are doing at the weekends those apps are useless. As they are for forecasting amounts of snow etc.
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In terms of tender evaluation criteria, these will be formulated by the BBC and, as is stated above, it will likely based on a blend of service offering and value. If the current presenters are Met Office employees and spend most of their time on BBC work, it is highly likely they will TUPE across to the new provider. So in terms of personnel at least, I doubt much will change.
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Am I alone in never having heard of Carol Kirkwood? I recognise all the other BBC weather presenters, but her name doesn't ring any bells at all. Does she do the 5am slot or just BBC Hebrides or something?
Not all the BBC presenters are emploees. Tomascz Shaffernaker is a met office emploee for example.
@AndAnotherThing..,
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Not to mention all that money on a super computer and the forecasts seem to be getting worse.
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Is there actually any proof of that? My view was that the forecasts are getting infinitely more accurate with every passing year.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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This is what the Met Office says about its accuracy, or in summary:
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@rob@rar,
Is that the usual "PMSL" or something specifically meteorological ?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Of course the forecasts are getting more accurate - but if the top British entertainment is moaning about the weather, the second is moaning about the weather forecasters.
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@Red Leon, not sure but it did make me giggle when I saw it 
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You know it makes sense.
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| foxtrotzulu wrote: |
| Is there actually any proof of that? |
Yes, my well regarded but poorly documented "cancelled fishing trips due to prospect of rain v actual weather series." 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Annoyingly I can't find it right now but when the Met Office/BBC contract first came up for renewal I read an article that in a meta study the Met Office was the LEAST accurate of the major forecasting agencies...
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Poster: A snowHead
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The Met Office could have improved their forecasting accuracy, as in the graph above, but also be the least accurate of the major agencies. No contradiction there; the whole science has been advanced enormously by super-computers but weather remains (thankfully) far too complex to be pinned down.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looking at the met office site, a couple of things struck me. Their targets for next year are lower than they are achieving now and while longer term forecasts are getting better the short term ones ie the ones we see on the bbc have remained much the same.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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So where is better to go for weather forecasting than the met office?
For me, the met office issue 'severe' weather warnings too easily, and it has made us change our plans unnecessarily. It's a bit like 'crying wolf', we are now starting to ignore them but one day we probably should take note.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| NE1 wrote: |
So where is better to go for weather forecasting than the met office?
For me, the met office issue 'severe' weather warnings too easily, and it has made us change our plans unnecessarily. It's a bit like 'crying wolf', we are now starting to ignore them but one day we probably should take note. |
I've found them to be pretty accurate, but only if you go into detail. The BBC tend to simply announce that weather warnings have been issued. What you obviously need to look at is the matrix they release showing probability and risk of disruption. The Met office did get caught out in 2007 with the floods and since then i think they have been a little more cautious.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| jbob wrote: |
| Looking at the met office site, a couple of things struck me. Their targets for next year are lower than they are achieving now and while longer term forecasts are getting better the short term ones ie the ones we see on the bbc have remained much the same. |
I'm assuming this is the page you are referring to: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts
Are we criticising them for meeting their targets or for not increasing their targets above the current level?
I think it's logical that long-term forecasts should be increasing much faster than short term. Short term are already incredibly accurate and there is only so much farther they can go. With long-term forecatss it is far easier to make a 10% improvement.
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