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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Seabass90 wrote:

Will the snow cannons even operate in such temperatures?


no
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Seabass90 wrote:
I know I've been fretting on here about the snow for my upcoming trip to Borovets next week for a bit, but I'm still worried. Everyone on here has been great, really informative and helpful. But next week is looking warm for the Bulgaria resorts, and I'm not sure we're talking a rise of a degree or two here and there - on Tuesday 2nd Feb for example, one of the forecasts I can see is predicting 11 degrees c during the day! Which matches the record for the highest temperature ever on 2nd Feb which was 11c on 2nd Feb 1980.

This seems pretty extreme to me. The other days of the week are all forecast to reach 7-9 degrees c in the day with no prospect of snow. Barely reaching freezing in the evenings. There has been no snowfall since 18th Jan.

Will the snow cannons even operate in such temperatures?


Humidity also counts - if dry they can even operate above freezing, but unlikely to be.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Seabass90 wrote:
I know I've been fretting on here about the snow for my upcoming trip to Borovets next week for a bit, but I'm still worried. Everyone on here has been great, really informative and helpful. But next week is looking warm for the Bulgaria resorts, and I'm not sure we're talking a rise of a degree or two here and there - on Tuesday 2nd Feb for example, one of the forecasts I can see is predicting 11 degrees c during the day! Which matches the record for the highest temperature ever on 2nd Feb which was 11c on 2nd Feb 1980.

This seems pretty extreme to me. The other days of the week are all forecast to reach 7-9 degrees c in the day with no prospect of snow. Barely reaching freezing in the evenings. There has been no snowfall since 18th Jan.

Will the snow cannons even operate in such temperatures?


Humidity also counts - if dry they can even operate above freezing, but unlikely to be.
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@seabass90 FWIW I'm told it snowed yesterday in Borovets and pretty much all the runs are showing as open. GFS is also showing a cool down and a lot of snow back end of next week. I'm sure a few days of warm temps won't melt all the snow - under high pressure it should freeze up at night too - so if I were you I would just go and enjoy the sunshine, it will make a nice change from The UK! Have fun Smile
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Thanks all!

@joshuaharrison that sounds more promising! I get the impression that little bits of snowfall aren't always recorded and so most sources are saying there still hasn't been any snow there since the dump a fortnight ago, so that's reassuring to know. You're right about the sun, haven't seen that big orange thing in the sky for a long time! Thanks Very Happy
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Seabass90, it looks as if the base is OK at Borovets, so a week of warmth won't destroy it. It'll make it like spring skiing, which can be very pleasant. I've often been skiing in March with temperatures like that (21C one day) and had a great time, because the snow has held up. It takes a while to disappear with just sun - you need warm rain on it as well for it to be damaged in a short space of time.
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@Seabass90, at this time of year the sun doesn't get as high in the sky, so less heating of the snow.

In summary, have a good holiday, enjoy nice weather if it comes, chilling out with a cold beer in the sun is a lovely way to round off a good day!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Thanks very much @J2R and @kitenski. I've only been skiing to snow-reliable resorts in December/January before so have never experienced Spring like conditions before for skiing- glad to hear they can be pleasant!
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I love cold January's but I also love Spring. The skiing is great, visibility is great and the wife doesn't mean. Happy days.
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I might be wrong and looking at things ain a very positive light off in FI but to me looks like half term could be a good one???
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.3985&lon=11.9439
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@mattiwilkin, shh
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
read this blog from 2014, and main takeaway is that beyond 3 days, ECM is better than GFS (10% more in summer and 20% more in winter).
Other point of note "In general, use the ECMWF as an indicator as to whether to lean more heavily to the GFS Operational or the GFS Ensemble"

http://www.energyblogs.com/weather/index.cfm/2014/1/6/Differences-Between-the-GFS-and-ECMWF-Weather-Models

So looking at charts for the near term NW alps, feb 3rd and 4th are the only (blue) sub zero days on ECM out to 7th feb. GFS op and control both agree with a short lived dip below zero at 1500m around the 4th. Think the 4th is the only chance for snow below 2000m in the near term. After that, good luck.
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There is a lot of movement with the particulars of the forecasts. I'd expect to see a little snow mixed with some rain at below 1700m before the 4th in a few places in the Alps based on what I've seen. Next week doesn't look great for those in resort but may not be too bad for those going a week later with suggestion of lower temps and snow north and south alps. Hopefully Noza will give his more informed opinion.


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Thu 28-01-16 10:47; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
will need a miraculous drop in temps to avoid torrential rain on sunday
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
langball wrote:
will need a miraculous drop in temps to avoid torrential rain on sunday


praying for that miracle. Worst possible welcome for Saturday arrivals like me.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

praying for that miracle. Worst possible welcome for Saturday arrivals like me.


And us too!! And we're only around until Tuesday!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Sunday looks colder than Monday so more prec earlier may mean more falls as snow. This prec is focussed on north alps so it is less likely to negatively affect the areas that have so far struggled for snow. This seems fair to me Smile. Wind also needs to be considered, could be strong. Again Noza can maybe give insight there to.
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This forecast for Les Arcs looks incredible for Sunday aside form the winds - how wrong can it be?

http://www.meteoexploration.com/forecasts/Les-Arcs/
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sunday looks like a good day to be high Shocked
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Any chance we'll see sunshine in Val D'Isere next week? We land on Sat...
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The big bad wolf is coming.


http://youtube.com/v/GitZmW2kBEQ

Recent runs have increased the strength and intensity of the storm on Sunday. Heavy snow at altitude, heavy rain below particularly in the north and west of the Alps (less in the east and a lot less if any in the south). The snowline will range between 1700 and 2100m a bit lower in the east.

On top of this there look like being extremely strong winds particularly in the north and west, but potentially strong in the south too.

The rain will drive you higher. The wind will force you down. The bar will be open. Seriously though expect disruption on Sunday it looks like a messy day across a large part of the northern Alps. Keep an eye on the forecasts.

After the storm has blown through (could be Monday in the east) it looks like clearing up. Before on Wednesday night further snowfall this time to low levels on Thursday across the Alps (more so in the east, but including the south).

Bar Sunday I'd be wary of saying "next week doesn't look good". Partly because some like sun and some like snow and assumptions as to what people do or don't like puts you on dangerous ground. But also because I'm not sure why you'd say it anyway.

Looking further ahead. More snow early next week to low levels for the southern Alps as well?



Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 28-01-16 11:46; edited 2 times in total
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@langball, winds look very strong and likely to close many lifts.
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@Aussieboarder, Tuesday and Friday look to have potential.
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@nozawaonsen, what the hell is going on with the music?

edit sorry that was meant to be funny, blame the wine at lunch....loved your old classics
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@davidof and others,

I'd be very interested to hear your views on how the expected weather for the weekend in the Northern/Western Alps may affect the skiing? Obviously just looking for opinions based on previous experience and the existing snow-pack. The affects could be short (hours, days) or longer term (days, weeks).

1a. Slopes above the freeze level - lots of snow forecast but with high winds and quite high temps for 24 hours but followed by cooler temps.
1b. Off-piste above the freeze level - as above.
2a. Slopes around the freeze/snow level - as above but wetter snow/sleet.
2b. Off-piste around the freeze/snow level - as above.
3a. Slopes below the snow level - lots of rain forecast.
3b. Off-piste below the snow level - as above.

I'd certainly find this an interesting discussion but also a useful one.
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Looking at 12z it seems to start colder in the east at the weekend but then rise the same as 06z by Monday. Still high precipitation showing in the Northern Alps for Sunday/Monday and generally more favourable FL than 06z. Starting with light snow in the west on Saturday night and finishing with rain in the east on Monday morning. Noza, over to you to correct me Smile.

FI still looking nice for both north and south Alps, colder and precipitation.


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Thu 28-01-16 18:54; edited 2 times in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looks interesting for Sunday. This is Chamonix. Cham Meteo calling locally heavy above 1500m. Weather pro saying 44mm. It's defiantly needed now, while the pistes are still holding up well, the off is shot.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much

Chamonix.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
looking to me like a reasonable amount of snow in the Dolomites, at last, around the 4th, then possibilities of more through the following week. There goes my wife's tan Cool
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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jbob wrote:
Looks interesting for Sunday. This is Chamonix. Cham Meteo calling locally heavy above 1500m. Weather pro saying 44mm. It's defiantly needed now, while the pistes are still holding up well, the off is shot.

Lets hope the FL comes down a little and we see it to cover the ski areas snowHead

Agreed, off piste seems obliterated. Le Tour was ruined pretty quickly due to wind, lets hope this one comes.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Dunny#1 wrote:
jbob wrote:
Looks interesting for Sunday. This is Chamonix. Cham Meteo calling locally heavy above 1500m. Weather pro saying 44mm. It's defiantly needed now, while the pistes are still holding up well, the off is shot.

Lets hope the FL comes down a little and we see it to cover the ski areas snowHead

Agreed, off piste seems obliterated. Le Tour was ruined pretty quickly due to wind, lets hope this one comes.


not all off piste is done found some pretty decent snow on the col du tacul today , had to work for it though Happy , but make the most of sundays snow on monday am as i think it will be toast by lunch time rolling eyes
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
We were in the snowiest mountain range in France today to see what the conditions were like. Well not too bad to be honest and there is pretty good snow cover

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@davidof, nice.

Sunday still looks tough. But being a storm short notice shifts are likely.

Here's SLF this evening.

"Sunday

Snowfall is anticipated, in northern regions more than anywhere else. The snowfall level is expected to ascend from approximately 1300 m to over 2000 m. The westerly wind will be blowing at strong to storm strength. The avalanche danger will increase, particularly in northern regions."
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Where was that, @davidof?
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pam w wrote:
Where was that, @davidof?


Near you, on the Grand Mont above Areches.

Friday morning looks like a few cm of new snow > 1500/1700m in the Northern Alps.
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Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Those temps on Monday look so high as to be an error!
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Gaza wrote:





Those temps on Monday look so high as to be an error!


Typical of what we've been enjoying this week. On Wednesday we were eating outside in T-shirts at lunchtime, it was 13C @ 1100 meters.

#springiscoming
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, nice.

Sunday still looks tough. But being a storm short notice shifts are likely.

Here's SLF this evening.

[i]"Sunday

The snowfall level is expected to ascend from approximately 1300 m to over 2000 m.


aggh, what did I say Monday?

davidof wrote:
However on the Grenoble resorts thread I advised the poster to go to a resort with tree-lined skiing on Sunday (and to wear a raincoat) so I probably share your brother's concerns as much as you can see that far ahead.

snow report Mon 25 Jan, 16


Lets hope FL is a bit lower. Also some precipitation being shown for Tuesday (it is in Gaza's charts too).
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@davidof, actually have no idea what you mean.
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Snow level at 2000m doesn't sound wonderful.
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