 Poster: A snowHead
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I'd like to ask about the weather so far this winter. I have been on two previous skiing hols and both times we had amazing conditions. Last yr it was the first week of feb in Italy.
We are off again in 2 weeks time. It seems this winter so far there is a serious lack of snow. How rare is that? It must be a nightmare for so many people.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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In the Northern French Alps Meteo France are still talking about a once in a generation event. It is as bad as 90/91 from memory although few snow canons back then. A lot of resorts wouldn't be able to operate at all this year without artificial snow.
It could dump a meter next week of course but generally January and February are relatively dry, sunny months in the Alps.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There is a distinct lack of precipitation this year, but the biggest problem - and yes it is unusual - is the temperature. It's just too warm.
Whether its global warming or what who knows, but even when there are large dumps of snow - of which there have been several - they just aren't sticking.
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It is rare to have such poor conditions but you are lucky if you have 100% "amazing conditions" up to now. The first week in February last year, in parts of Italy and southern Austria, produced stupendous snowfall which is just as rare as this year's snow drought.
A typical week will have some good days, maybe one or two great ones, maybe one or two nasty ones with zero visibility/awful windchill/blizzard etc etc.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Weather is unique. The only forecast that is right is the one that says "there will be weather".
This year is being declared "once in a generation" event
Last year was a "once in a generation" event.
I've turned up to grass in January in the Alps before, and indeed most definitely not a generation ago. More like 6-7 years ago.
We got in a full 6 days skiing. And I bet those that travelled last Saturday got a full 6 days skiing this past week, and those that travelled this weekend will get a full 6 days skiing in this week (although some resorts had many lifts closed due to wind this weekend).
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| davidof wrote: |
In the Northern French Alps Meteo France are still talking about a once in a generation event. It is as bad as 90/91 from memory although few snow canons back then. A lot of resorts wouldn't be able to operate at all this year without artificial snow.
It could dump a meter next week of course but generally January and February are relatively dry, sunny months in the Alps. |
My memory is that 89/90 was worse than 90/91 which was pretty warm late on but had an acceptable start.
Conversely 89/90 had a decent finish from early March, my sister has never fully forgiven me for interrupting her ski season during the first really big dump.
Had excellent conditions on my honeymoon though.
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| macgyver wrote: |
There is a distinct lack of precipitation this year, but the biggest problem - and yes it is unusual - is the temperature. It's just too warm.
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Same problem here and we are quite a way away and a have a different ocean to blame for it! No lack of precipitation in this part of the world, but too warm.
Unusual, maybe not. Similar last year (though a bit colder and a lot drier), definitely not so good early 2004/2005 season and 2010 (just in time for the Olympics).
that said people who grew up here say things have changed a lot.
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Glad to hear it's a rarity. Watching the racing on tv shows fields, rooftops. Not what I want to see at the moment.
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Still no discussion of climate change  is this not what we may expect more often?
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@Peter S, climate change is a longer term sort of discussion. Talk of the contrast between huge snow in the dolomites last year and the warm weather in the alps this year is more in the "weather " scheme of things. Though it was certainly rather warm in the dolomites even with all that snow. It's a long time since we had a long really cold spell like I remember the first January we spent in the mountains. January 2003 it was minus 15 for weeks.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| stuarth wrote: |
| ...that said people who grew up here say things have changed a lot. |
Last year, an old mountain guide, who grew up in Chamonix, said the same thing to us. And that the glacier has receded quite a bit from when he was a nipper.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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My family in Norway have been going on about Global warming for the past few years. It is more noticeable over the last 5 years. They are in Tonsberg sud i Oslo.
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I've climbed and skied in the Alps for 30 years. It's changed hugely. In the summers there were thousands of patches of snow all over the Alps, which now have gone. North faces were held together with ice during the summer rather than being the rockfall alleys they now almost all are. In 1995 I walked up to the col above Flaine, in June, and there was glacier field with deep crevasse - difficult to cross. I remember it vividly because I had taken insufficient gear. Now - all gone. Now rock and grass.
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You know it makes sense.
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The retreat of the Glacier de Bossons (Chamonix) is also very striking to anyone walking near its snout in summer and should be a compulsory hike for climate change deniers. However I'd put this winter down to "weather" rather than "climate".
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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This year`s weather is not rare, it`s unique, as it has never happened before, and will never happen again !  P.S I only read the title.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I am unconvinced that glacial retreat is a particularly good metric of climate change. Glaciers advance and retreat, that's what they do, just as well really otherwise Paris would be under a kilometre of glacial ice.
1989-90 was worse - a lot worse. 1988-89 had been better but not much. 1990-91 saw return to near normal service.
@Glenfish, it is indeed a nightmare for many people.
Had this been "normal" winter sports would probably not have developed the way they have.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| dogwatch wrote: |
| The retreat of the Glacier de Bossons (Chamonix) is also very striking to anyone walking near its snout in summer and should be a compulsory hike for climate change deniers. However I'd put this winter down to "weather" rather than "climate". |
I think most people would acknowledge the climate is changing. It has done so since the dawn of time (to coin a phrase). The more vexed question is how much has mankind (peoplekind?) contributed to that change. There is far from universal agreement on that, or on effectiveness of carbon taxes, etc, etc.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| valais2 wrote: |
| I've climbed and skied in the Alps for 30 years. It's changed hugely. In the summers there were thousands of patches of snow all over the Alps, which now have gone. North faces were held together with ice during the summer rather than being the rockfall alleys they now almost all are. In 1995 I walked up to the col above Flaine, in June, and there was glacier field with deep crevasse - difficult to cross. I remember it vividly because I had taken insufficient gear. Now - all gone. Now rock and grass. |
quite right, the summer ice and snow patches have long gone, they used to be numerous, i presume that's within the scope of climate movement/shifting and all very natural, but it is a shame.
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This winter has not been as kind as would be expected for the alpine skiing resorts.
However, if you choose to go high then this year has been pretty much as good as any other for on piste skiing. One of the reasons that we chose Val Thorens to buy an apartment is that it is high enough to be able to cope with warm spells without losing snow. It is able to keep the snow that falls in November when, this year, it melted in lower resorts.
Whether this is part of a pattern who knows. Although, there were a number of studies published in the 90's that scared the ski industry as they spoke about the snow level moving up and up the mountains during this century.
Probably why so much investment is going into the higher resorts.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Probably why so much investment is going into the higher resorts.
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it is a constant source of surprise to me how much investment there is round our area, definitely not high - tops out at only a fraction over 2000m. Snow cannons, of course, but also new lifts (every year for a while now) and absolutely masses of building of upmarket individual chalets and apartment complexes.
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| ulmerhutte wrote: |
| There is far from universal agreement on that, or on effectiveness of carbon taxes, etc, etc. |
Absolutely, oil producers, coal miners and those who derive their incomes from them are not in agreement.
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@pam w, where is the investment (for infrastructure, actually for accommodation construction as well (MGM?)) coming from?
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 12-01-15 11:51; edited 1 time in total
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| dogwatch wrote: |
| ulmerhutte wrote: |
| There is far from universal agreement on that, or on effectiveness of carbon taxes, etc, etc. |
Absolutely, oil producers, coal miners and those who derive their incomes from them are not in agreement. |
Just out of curiosity Dogwatch, do you believe that AGW is the primary cause of climate change? Do you have children or would like to? Do you take discretionary flights, eg for holidays?
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@ulmerhutte, Spit it out, what are you trying to say, or ask , above. I can`t see that@dogwatch, has said anything that makes him/her a climate change denier. Quite the opposite.
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So with pervious years like this, does it improve or is the whole season a poor one?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@cstreat, think you may have missed @ulmerhutte's point.
It's definitely not certain how much/if any impact humans have had on climate change.
The term climate change denier is also  ridiculous.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| ulmerhutte wrote: |
| Just out of curiosity Dogwatch, do you believe that AGW is the primary cause of climate change? |
Yes I do. The rest of your questions are none of your damn business.
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| Philip1972 wrote: |
| So with pervious years like this, does it improve or is the whole season a poor one? |
You'll have to ask once it's over.
It could dump all over the ALps from Feb to April.
It could rain all over the Alps from Feb to April.
It could be sunny all over the Alps from Feb to April.
Etc.
Most likely there'll be plenty more snow though.
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You know it makes sense.
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It's all my fault I'm afraid. Leaky, draughty house with single glazing heated primarily by oil, and a collection of Land Rovers and a V8 Jag in the driveway.
Oh, and my goats fart quite a lot, which probably doesn't help.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Philip1972, sometimes it improves, sometimes the whole season is poor. Sometimes January is buried in snow but then it's all very hot and steamy before Easter. There isn't a pattern AFAIK any more than there is in the UK. If we have a mild start to January, nobody starts asking whether it's going to stay mild till April, do they?
@under a new name, the lift company is investing in the lifts, I guess. I don't begin to understand how their finances work - next time I'm on a long chairlift ride with a local instructor I might ask. 3 new TSDs in the last 3 years, one replacing an ancient chair, one replacing a double draglift and one, just opened, giving access to a completely new ski area with three new pistes. Also 2 magic carpets on the village nursery slope, replacing a very slow chair and a drag. And a very expensive and swanky new aqua/sports centre.
MGM have built a lot in this area but there are other developers too, including some very nice spec-built apartments developed by two ex-MGM sales people who just got fed up with MGM and opened their own "immo" which seems to be doing well. The two most recent apartment developments in Les Saisies weren't MGM.
There are also a huge number of very swish new individual chalets going up - for example down in Villard sur Doron - which is our postal address but hundreds of metres lower down 10 km of winding road. Beautiful big places, which can have nothing to do with skiing, really, and a commanding view of the Intermarché. It's quite a prosperous valley, because of year round tourism and the Beaufort cheese which has kept the éléveurs in business.
All around the ski areas, including down the Arly Valley - Flumet, Praz sur Arly, Combloux there is a lot of new building, both of tourist-style apartments (some co-pro classique, some résidences to tourisme) and beautiful individually built chalets. There are also a number of rather ugly, older style apartment buildings being tarted up, for example in Notre Dame de Bellecombe. Megeve is in a class of its own, obviously, but Combloux is a very smart and somewhat cheaper alternative.
The whole area has a feel of quiet prosperity about it. In ski terms it's all low altitude but it's not just about the skiing and tourists. I go to quite a few of the "fetes", for example a get-together of local folk dancing troupes in Beaufort where I was struck by the fact that practically everybody is local (not just French, the vast majority of the cars jammed in every available space were 73s).
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Poster: A snowHead
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So if the climate keeps getting warmer, snowline goes up and seasons in Alps effectively shortened, given that skiing is more and more popular, where would all the punters go in, say, 20 years? Would most of them come back to costas leaving the more crowded slushy slopes for true ski passionates? Or would places like Norway get more developed?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@wyspa, if the climate actually is getting warmer, in the short horizon you're talking about... Etc, etc, we don't all die because ocean acidification erodes the food chain from the literal bottom up, etc. etc.,
Who knows??
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| wyspa wrote: |
| given that skiing is more and more popular |
It isn't. Pretty much flat-lining.
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@under a new name, is that true?
@dogwatch, I'm an ignorant and haven't got any stats to back my claim, but I thought that all those new investments must be, at least partially, drived by increasing consumer base. Eastern Europeans (like myself) are getting wealthier and visit Alps in bigger numbers.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@wyspa, I am pretty confident that East Europeans have nothing to do with the investment in the Espace Diamant, my area. I once did hear a young couple speaking a Slav language - don't know which one though. They were the only people I have ever overhead in this area without being able to tell what language they were speaking A huge majority are Francophone, mostly French but quite a lot of Belgians. Then Dutch (and no doubt Flemish, can't tell the difference) English and Italian.
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| dogwatch wrote: |
| ulmerhutte wrote: |
| Just out of curiosity Dogwatch, do you believe that AGW is the primary cause of climate change? |
Yes I do. The rest of your questions are none of your damn business. |
Hmmmm.... I smell hypocrisy. It is so entertaining to watch people like Al Gore, Bono, et al preaching the evils of AGW, and then flying off to their next gig in their private jets. Or...one of our local alarmists stating that sea levels with rise by metres in this century. He then went out and bought a sea front property. Plenty more examples but you get the drift.
For mine, I think that mankind has had an effect, but how much has not been determined with any measure of certainty. Very few, if any, of the substantive predictions on sea levels and temperatures, by bodies like IPCC, have materialised. Over the last ~20 years, the rate of temperature increase has not match that of the increase of greenhouse gases. One model suggested that the oceans were absorbing the heat. Empirical evidence does not appear to support that. To me, that says the current models are flawed and further research is needed.
In the meantime, we should take prudent measures, but remember that our way of life is predicated on affordable energy.
Btw, do you believe in hockey sticks?
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@wyspa, tbh, I have generally no idea where much of the investment comes from. I know that CMB signed a fairly significant but over a long term deal with Chamonix to re-secure the operating lease.
Elsewhere? Not a clue.
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If sea levels have risen so much, how come the Maldives are still there? Anyone know?
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@thecramps, the Maldives are ancient antlantean semi-submersibles.
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@clarky999, I hadn't missed his point, I just thought that it was unnecessary to question whether he had or wanted children, or flew to holidays. And now Dogwatch is a hypocrite to boot. There are plenty of people who deny climate change; I`ve worked in Texas ! We all ski, but we are kidding ourselves if we think it is an ecological sport . Having worked solely out of doors for over 3 decades, I have certainly seen changes, but how much is a natural process, and how much is human influence I will leave to better qualified people. But looking down on Alpine valley towns sat in a smog of their own making, I cant help thinking that we are accelerating the process. I guess that I`m from the James Lovelock school of thought.
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