 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| Quote: |
the once in a 100 year snowfall around arabba will be repeated or will it be wetter
|
if it's any wetter than last year, even a degree or so, it'll be a 100 year fall of rain - it was very soggy. Not cold. fortunately long term weather forecasts are just for entertainment and we will all be kept guessing again.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
I guess that depends a fair amount on the altitude of the resort.
Blow 2000 metres it might be the brownest wettest winter on record, above 2000 metres it might be the snowiest on record.
I guess climate change is going to see property values in the higher resorts going up.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
@emwmarine, yes, I was just referring to Arabba. There was a huge amount of snow there last year but it was wet and soggy stuff, lots of dripping and melting and rivers running down the roads.
But remember those warnings in the UK about this time last year? How it was going to be the coldest winter ever? Even with their new super computer which weighs as much as 11 double decker buses it's still just a game of probabilities.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
It's difficult for me to give the 'Eric Leister, Meteorologist' tea leaf and berry predictions any credibility when he writes ...
"While occasional shots of cold air will send temperatures tumbling across Ireland, the United Kingdom and France early in the winter, a persistent southerly flow caused by storms tracking near and north of Scotland will often result in near- to above-normal temperatures."
and ...
"The large-scale weather pattern will feature stubborn areas of high pressure over Scandinavia for much of the winter. This setup will funnel colder air into northern and eastern Europe while also forcing the majority of storm systems to track across southern Europe, especially during the second half of winter."
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
To be honest it's still hard to predict weather with any accuracy beyond 2 weeks into the future, there's just too many variablesm El Ninio etc have an effect BUT that effect can be compounded or lessened by local weather, and if theres a sudden volcanic eruption of any significant size it can have a huge effect
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The UK Met Office, one of, if not the best set of meteorological brains and resources in Europe, doesn't even try do seasonal forecasts nowadays. Whenever I see someone like "Eric Leister, Meteorologist" writing a seasonal forecast, I know that they're mystics with pretensions, not 'meteorologists'. Even if the logical implication of his tea leaf and berry predictions I quoted above weren't so contradictory in the first place.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| Quote: |
Even with their new super computer which weighs as much as 11 double decker buses
|
Which won't go live till 2017
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@pam w, by 'they' and 'their supercomputers', I assume, that like Boris, you think the Met Office (or some other respected agency) had in some way endorsed last year's coldest ever winter predictions. They didn't, and you're leaping to conclusions that the charlatans that make similar forecasts every autumn are underpinning them with authoritative meteorology.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Must be almost time for the Daily Express to be wheeling out "The next ice age is coming" headlines
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
@moffatross, no, I wasn't suggesting that at all. What I was saying was that even the Met Office with their new supercomputer can't tell us what's going to happen next winter. Sorry if it wasn't clear. I get really fed up with people who have not tried to understand even the most basic aspects of Meteorology making stupid criticisms of the Met Office. One Snowhead even suggested a couple of months ago that their forecasts are now much less accurate than they used to be.  What an idiot. I honestly can't remember who it was.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sorry, pam w, I definitely misunderstood you then !  And what's with all these newfangled @'s ? Have we been tw@ttered by @dmin ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
Part of my job is working with the Met Office to plan gritting programs tailored to the conditions. The longest range they will even give an indication of possibilities for is one month. Day to day decisions are set up perhaps 6 hours before an event. And even then you are looking at predictions and plotting against sensor real time readings to check for divergence.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Sat 8-11-14 21:35; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
well do be honest i had so many times heared about heavy winters,snow, wet, rain storms etc etc etc and usually none of this long term weather forecasts had some significant success....
when its too hard to predict the weather for next week. i cannot imagine for a whole 5 months term...
maybe this theories with jet stream have a scientific base, but however....no one knows....
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
My predictions are alnost always accurate, but I do not issue them until late March...
Seriously, predicting 3 - 5 months out is just a pure guess or wishful thinking.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
But then it is said that some people always read their Horoscope in the papers - and those long term forecasts fall into the same category. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
I am predicting I am going skiing.
I am predicting that we will have a good time.
I am prediciting there will be sufficient snow cover (ranging from 1% - 150% of average) to enable said good time.
Everthing else is a variable, and will be dealt with as and when it does or doesn't happen.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
