 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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someone will be along shortly to explain.....
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that you can't forecast weather months in advance... 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Still, looking hopeful 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Whatever the weather in the rest of the North East I can guarantee that it will be freezing at Silksworth
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I know that Pam but there does seem to have been some credence to previous years' el nino-type stuff - though I can never remember which is good and which is bad 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Hope to get a bit more use out my winter tyres this year!
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Nope.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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....except that the forecasts are getting much more accurate , at least as far as the next 5 days.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29256322
The current thinking is that climate change induced artic ice melting, and other affects, are making the jet stream weaker and therefore more likley to meander south. That is the explanation (excuse) why our winters are not merely getting progressively weaker .
Potentially it is good news for UK wintersports since a southerly jet can open the door to the east, which if the source air is cool enough can give prolonged spells that default to cool rather than warm.
We'll see if that happens this year
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the forecasts are getting much more accurate , at least as far as the next 5 days.
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entirely agree with that. People who grumble that forecasts are always wrong have often simply failed to grasp some of the basic principles. The Met Office current practice of giving probability of precipitation, for example, is a huge advance and one I've argued for for years.
But five months ahead?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Really? What basic principles did I failed to grasp? If they tell yesterday evening (and still today morning to be exact), it's going to be sunny and +22c today, and it's +13c and raining for all day long, what exactly did I failed to grasp? That weather changes, and guys with whole bunch of machinery and "sophisticated" weather models are just too damn lazy to look at their machines and think, something what they actually did 15 years ago, and got much more accurate predictions, with much less computer power. But then again I also understand this... if some computer model tells you results, why bother looking outside if computer says it's sunny then it's sunny, even if it's already raining outside. People who are wet just failed to grasp some basic principles, like computer is never wrong
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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failed to grasp some basic principles, like computer is never wrong
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Yep I had to do a double take the other day when my smart phone told me its was -52c outside 
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jogi, well, if you think poor forecasting is down to guys being "too damn lazy" and that forecasting was much more accurate 15 years ago, I'd say there was quite a bit you've failed to grasp.
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You know it makes sense.
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Sure thing... you happen to be one of those one? But thing is, they simply forward what their models throw out, and without much of thinking they publish that as "forecast". So yes, that's pretty much what I call "too damn lazy". Especially when they are off most of time... for short term forecasts not for 5-10 days one, since those are basically useless to even check, at least here in middle Europe. But never mind, you are absolutely right.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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jogi, some forecasting sites do just use "what their models throw out". Snow-forecast, for example. But others don't. It's helpful to find out a bit about how the weather sites you use work, and their strengths and limitations. For example, the met office forecast for my area is now far more useful because of the "percentage probability" of precipitation.
Of course, they can still get it wrong (though if they get it right, half the days when they forecast a 50% probability of rain, will be dry, and vice versa). Because one of the basic principles to grasp is that weather is a very complicated business and all sorts of little things can throw a spanner in the works - there are always a number of different ways that any given situation can evolve and in the end it's a game of probabilities.
But if you listen to the very limited hasty summaries in the minute before the news you would get a very different impression because they have to simplify and dumb down - weather can be hugely different just 20 miles apart (less, when there are mountains involved) but they have to produce a summary for "northern ireland" or "the west of Scotland".
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| jogi wrote: |
| Really? What basic principles did I failed to grasp? If they tell yesterday evening (and still today morning to be exact), it's going to be sunny and +22c today, and it's +13c and raining for all day long, what exactly did I failed to grasp? That weather changes, and guys with whole bunch of machinery and "sophisticated" weather models are just too damn lazy to look at their machines and think, something what they actually did 15 years ago, and got much more accurate predictions, with much less computer power. But then again I also understand this... if some computer model tells you results, why bother looking outside if computer says it's sunny then it's sunny, even if it's already raining outside. People who are wet just failed to grasp some basic principles, like computer is never wrong |
Do you honestly believe that forecasts were more accurate 15 years ago?
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FAQ
- but I'm sure that someone will be along shortly to explain.....
