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Ebola

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Masque, haha i see where you are going with this!!
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Armed men attack Liberia Ebola clinic, freeing patients
Not the best way to contain an outbreak....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Alastair Pink, unfortunately it seems to be remarkably typical. If in doubt, bring the diseased home, shoot the doctors and burn down the hospital.

Not a good look.
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Quote "West Point residents went on a "looting spree," stealing items from the clinic that were likely infected said a senior police official. The residents took medical equipment and mattresses and sheets that had bloodstains, he said. Ebola is spread through bodily fluids including blood, vomit, faeces and sweat." Skullie
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Early leaders in this year's Darwin awards?
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Luckily some Brit who was in Austria (Tirol) was cleared of Ebola.
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And luckily, all those people in the UK with ebola turned out not to exist!
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One Brit with ebola being shipped back to be treated in London. So that'll be the first actual case here.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/british-ebola-patient-to-be-evacuated-who-worker-infected-1.1973551
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First case in the USA - someone who flew in from Liberia and had been ill for 4 days before being diagnosed.
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and so it begins
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under a new name wrote:
1. Why would it spread to Europe, at all, never mind to any appreciable extent?

2. Why would it disrupt travel?


It's now confirmed in Dallas.

It's (supposedly) not transmissible until one is symptomatic.

The patient was displaying symptoms for several days before s/he sought treatment.

Thus, anyone that person came into contact with in Dallas during that symptomatic period is potentially now infected with ebola virus.

Once they become symptomatic, anyone they are in contact with is potentially at risk.

The symptoms are, at first, not dissimilar to a cold.

Let's say patient zero has a friend who works at the airport, and this friend has had the sniffles for a day or two.

According to Skyscanner, you can currently fly (with stops) to Dallas FW or LF from the UK from eighteen airports, inc London Heathrow and City, Aberdeen, Belfast International, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh. Glasgow, Leeds Bradford and Manchester.
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northernsoulboy,

but - and this is a critical but - it is not transmissible as an aerosol. So unless someone has come into contact with the actual bodily fluids of that person, they won't have been infected.

Sitting on a bus pr a plane beside someone and breathing the same air isn't how it spreads (unlike, for instance, the common cold or influenza). And outside the body the virus is quite fragile (persistent, but fragile).

Thankfully for the moment, the scenario you describe is extremely unlikely.

However, should the virus mutate to become easily transmissible between humans by aerosol vector, then we might be in a bit of trouble. Skullie Skullie Skullie
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see this http://qz.com/273972/stay-calm-and-carry-on-why-its-nearly-impossible-for-ebola-to-spread-in-the-us/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Seems like there are a number of potential treatments waiting in the wings, including the use of drugs that are usually used against HIV.

All is not lost!
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under a new name wrote:
northernsoulboy,

but - and this is a critical but - it is not transmissible as an aerosol. So unless someone has come into contact with the actual bodily fluids of that person, they won't have been infected.


under a new name, currently they're saying it's not transmissible by aerosol, but that does beg the questions what do they mean by 'by aerosol', and are they telling the truth?

I think it's at least possible that they are telling half-truths (and for obvious reasons related to panic, and the fact that they presumably currently believe they are head of the curve, which may change very rapidly) and that it can be transmitted via coughing and spluttering etc but that it is not easy to do.

In fact, under lab conditions ebola can apparently be transmitted in that way.

Which sort of stands to reason. Otherwise, why would the symptoms include coughing and spluttering? After all, symptoms are usually engendered in the host by the virus or bacteria as a means of transmission.

(It's not just coughing, of course. There are numerous ways in which microbial infections can be spread by aerosol - including when an infected person [apologies in advance] has explosive diarrhoea in a public [or any] lavatory; that smell in the air is actually microbial sh*te, after all, and when the loo is flushed it just stirs it up a bit more.)

But anyway, it's very easy to come into contact with bodily fluids, including those generated orally, other than by breathing in.

Say a bloke on a 747 has a runny nose. He coughs, and politely covers his mouth. His hands are now smeared in ebola virus, which he then further smears onto the arm rest next to you, the loo door handle, the dinner tray that the stewardess collects, the door handle of the cab he gets into at Heathrow etc etc.

Now, where did I put those alcohol wipes? And are they of any use?
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There's a book I read a few years back which charts the history of Ebola and it's threats. It was called 'then Hot Zone", I can't remember who wrote it but it was a fairly chilling read.
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Its not consistent how some places are managing it. My husband flew from Heathrow to Nigeria and had his temperature taken on arrival, then at least every 3 hours for the next 2 days, on arriving back at Heathrow...nothing.
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northernsoulboy, (Caveat, I am not a medic).

"who's" "saying"? You've seen the research on pubmed yourself. As far as has been seen it doesn't spread by aerosol in humans. There may have been a pig transmission to monkey, although that's somewhat unclear. A mouse model has been produced. Plus the key words are "under laboratory conditions". But it's not recognised generally to spread as an aerosol.

Quote:

why would the symptoms include coughing and spluttering?


A good question. I don't believe that those are symptoms...

And while at a stretch your scenario is possible... as far as I can see it's extremely unlikely. Ebola (and other such things) (so far) have only really caused problems in areas with little to non-existent general healthcare and other habits and customs that make it easy for the problems to arise. Look how few (yes, few) people have been infected or died in Africa considering the populations involved and the quality of care particularly in rural areas. If it was that easy to catch, we'd be seeing a wildly different picture.
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under a new name wrote:

A good question. I don't believe that those are symptoms...

And while at a stretch your scenario is possible... as far as I can see it's extremely unlikely. Ebola (and other such things) (so far) have only really caused problems in areas with little to non-existent general healthcare and other habits and customs that make it easy for the problems to arise. Look how few (yes, few) people have been infected or died in Africa considering the populations involved and the quality of care particularly in rural areas. If it was that easy to catch, we'd be seeing a wildly different picture.


under a new name, coughing isn't a major symptom, but it is a symptom.

By the way, initially I was only answering your questions - why would it spread to Europe (answer, because it's now spread to the USA - so why wouldn't it?) and why would it disrupt air travel (answer, because it was obviously brought to the USA via an aircraft, and thus it's not unlikely that - depending how it unfolds - the US authorities, and the EU, might restrict travel to and from certain countries).

You're right re the differences between the west and Africa, but that does cut the other way, too. If you're a poor farmer in rural Guineau you are probably only going to spread it to the people in your village. So it moves slowly. We're much more connected - depending on how readily it transmits, your man in Dallas could already have passed it to people who will pass it to people in every major city in the world in a fortnight.

Not saying that will happen, of course. And I'm not panicking or anything, at this stage I just find it interesting.

(I'm not a doctor, either, it's just from stuff I've read or heard.)
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Swissie wrote:
Its not consistent how some places are managing it. My husband flew from Heathrow to Nigeria and had his temperature taken on arrival, then at least every 3 hours for the next 2 days, on arriving back at Heathrow...nothing.


Let's hope that those thermometers were sterile!
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northernsoulboy, I haven't seen any report on how the patient got back to the US, the most likely route looks to me to be via Heathrow.
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It can spread to the West because anyone can travel to the Wet who has caught it. It will not spread within the West because its mode of transmission is known and is relatively easily controlled within rich countries.The only people who are really at risk are intimate contacts of people who have the disease and health care workers.
The reason why They are telling the truth is because They are the doctors and epidemiologists who have to deal with it and have a need to know the truth for their own protection.
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T Bar wrote:
It can spread to the West because anyone can travel to the Wet who has caught it. It will not spread within the West because its mode of transmission is known and is relatively easily controlled within rich countries.The only people who are really at risk are intimate contacts of people who have the disease and health care workers.
The reason why They are telling the truth is because They are the doctors and epidemiologists who have to deal with it and have a need to know the truth for their own protection.


I do take your point re 'them' - I'm not a big believer in conspiracies. I only suggested they might be telling half-truths after weighing up the various responses, which might range from 'oh what a load of tosh we heard this with bird flu' to 'oh my god we're all going to die let's strip the supermarkets bare'.

If ebola will kill a thousand people in the States, but everyone staying indoors and avoiding contact will wreck the economy, I'm not sure what I'd say.

Who knows? You're probably right, though I expect the CDC is watching things very closely indeed!

re the potential for it to spread, a man who had it and recovers can pass it on via his semen for seven weeks afterwards. Who's going to be checking all that spunk?
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Did anyone hear in dismay that more than 160 NHS staff have volunteered to go and help with Ebola. Am I the only one thats worried about this?? How long is it until we hear about Ebola in our hospitals after their return. OK so perhaps im over reacting, but the idea that they take their leave to go and help, then come back and go straight to work without any quarantine period sounds like a recipe for disaster to me Shocked
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I'm a bit concerned about it, but I'm also concerned about the poor b*ggers dying of it elsewhere; I think you have to trust the professionals and one assumes they will be taking mahoosive precautions!
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northernsoulboy, They were digital, I think he said they put them behind his ear....must be a novelty in Nigeria. wink
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Amazing! Taking on anything with a 70% mortality rate is seriously hard-core Shocked

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ebola/11118816/Why-Im-going-to-Africa-to-tackle-Ebola.html
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There have always been somewhat heroic health professionals who do fantastic things in very difficult situations - for example with Medecins sans Frontiere. I suspect it's partly a professional concern but also partly an adrenalin rush and knowing they are "on the front line". Generally doctors working in developing countries get to do a lot more stuff than they'd be allowed anywhere near in the NHS. And some of them like that. wink
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ALQ, pam w, All credit to them, they do (and will do) a great job. It still worries me somewhat that we can seem to contain the most minor of infections in our hospitals, and should (and I stress should) an NHS workers bring ebola back, I cant see how we would cope. You would like to think (i hope) they would have some kind of quarantine period before coming back to the UK / work.
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pam w, I (we) don't hear very much about such folks though. 70% mortality rate is blimmin dangerous.
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PaulC1984, You're just worried? Have you watched Outbreak? Laughing
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northernsoulboy, ahhh, I read you as slightly helping to the scariness. But I see you were not.

As I understand this, there are two (three) problems. Human inability to understand risk and a general hankering of governments/agencies to scare folk with a view to encouraging compliance (of whatever description).

I am no conspiracist.

There is a huge difference between "Keep calm and carry on" and "Your threat level today is Orange"

Anyhow.

ALQ, a 70% mortality rate is positively safe if the infection rate is zero. Whereas a 10% mortality with 100% infection is literally decimation.
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ALQ, I was trying not to sound too much of a drama queen. In reality, if it came to an area near me, id pack up the family and bolt upto scotland! Im lucky enough to have parents with a house 4 miles from the nearest house and work that I can do on the internet!!
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Why would ALQ, "Outbreak" - a massively overblown fiction have anything to do with how you run your life?

Do you act on, Independence Day or Shawn of the Dead?
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under a new name, I was trying to add a sense of drama, god dont you watch any american films Toofy Grin
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under a new name, I find watching such docu-dramas about likely future scenarios quite informative.

Independence Day - ISIS nuke threat
Outbreak - happening now
Shawn of the Dead - Aldershot High St on a Saturday night or Oxford St in the January sales. (EDIT: Sorry, that last one should have been Dawn of the Dead)
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ALQ, Toofy Grin
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Serriadh, haha that made me giggle. Still my joking is a tad disrespectful to those having to live with ebola. lets hope they get it under control
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Ebola infections are doubling every three weeks. So we should make it through the 2015 ski season and then...
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