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What is the Risk of Riding in Avalanche Terrain? [Utah Avalanche Center]

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Interesting.



http://unofficialnetworks.com/risk-riding-avalanche-terrain-123792/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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It believe the stats (although Im sure that someone will be along shortly to disagree with something) but some of them are just so counter intuitive.
Sky diving is as safe/dangerous as marathon running?! Puzzled
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Um, what is centerpunching?
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Steilhang, I'm assuming just skiing right down the middle of a slope.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
So just being alive for a year carries a similar risk to skydiving 40 days straight.
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clarky999 wrote:
Steilhang, I'm assuming just skiing right down the middle of a slope.


Slope off-piste, slope on-piste, ... ?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Mr Pieholeo wrote:
clarky999 wrote:
Steilhang, I'm assuming just skiing right down the middle of a slope.


Slope off-piste, slope on-piste, ... ?


Given it's from the States, probably 'out of bounds' ungroomed/not avi controlled. I'm just guessing though.
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clarky999 wrote:
Steilhang, I'm assuming just skiing right down the middle of a slope.
I was wondering whether it might be snowmobiling, which would explain why doing it is more dangerous at 'considerable' than backcountry skiing. Although, this is something that you do 10 times so maybe that's why it's more dangerous...
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Well seems to be a Utah avy center common term not snowmobile specific

http://utahavalanchecenter.org/sites/default/files/archive/advisory/print/advisory/logan/20091219.html
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Steilhang, it was also minus 'risk reduction methods.' You may be right about snowmobiling though, from a quick google:

Quote:
A note to snowmobilers who play highmark: To increase your chances of keeping a game from turning into a nightmare, pick windward slopes rather than lee slopes. Start on the edge of a slope at lower angles. Don't "centre-punch" the slope!

http://www.discovertherockies.com/TravelArticles/TheBackcountry//8-36.html

Other places seem to use it in reference to skiing/boarding though (under How will I manage the terrain appropriately?): http://www.mec.ca/AST/ContentPrimary/Learn/Snowsports/AvalancheSafety/DecisionMakingInTheBackcountry.jsp

I think they probably just mean dropping down the centre rather than choosing a line to minimise risk exposure.

Would be interested to know how they got the numbers anyway...
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According to NHS stats, i have a likelihood of dying within next year of 1 in 663, which equates to about 1 in 3300 per week. So next jan if i dont go skiing. 1 in 3300 risk of dying that exact week. Can someone work out how that compares with above?
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Sorry that should be 1 in 33000, right? Ie 30 millimorts. Over a week? Appears higher than many of hazardous activities above but presumably thats because above is based on risl of 20 year old dying
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The overall probability of you dying is 1. I'd just take the precautions, and enjoy.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
b]Steilhang[/b], Very Happy
However, shouldn't that be about 32? One million divided by average life expectancy in days? (Or have I misunderstood the way this is calculated.)
That's per day, of course. Over a lifetime I suppose it would be one million.

And it isn't getting out of bed that gives the 20 year old 20 millimorts - it's whatever the average 20 year old has and does in a day.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
no, probability of "1" = 100% probability.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Oh OK, I didn't notice he had moved from millimorts as used in the rest of this discussion, to more general probability.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Cool chart man Razz
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
"center punching" looks like sledder-speak for driving the sled straight *up* the middle of a slope.

Perhaps anything with that verb in it is sledding, which I would suspect is more dangerous than skiing/boarding for a number of reasons.
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The risk is you'll get destroyed by a giant avalanche!
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peanuthead wrote:
According to NHS stats, i have a likelihood of dying within next year of 1 in 663, which equates to about 1 in 3300 per week. So next jan if i dont go skiing. 1 in 3300 risk of dying that exact week. Can someone work out how that compares with above?


Does that mean you are likely to live until you are 662?
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peanuthead, 1 chance in 663 (if that is right - are you sure - it seems very low) for a year, is 1: 242,000 per day, which is just over 4 millimorts. But the average chance of dying (including all ages) must be about 1 in 80 per year, surely?
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