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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
NickyJ wrote:
jedster, come on, it CAN happen, this week last year it was dumping it down, I know it was exceptional, but that doesn't stop those of us that are stuck with next week (or the week after) due to one reason or another hoping for the best.


That's the whole point though.

Fresh snow this time of year may well not be for the best.

We had a large dump in late April three or four years ago and it ruined the last four days of the season. It was too warm to freeze overnight and never became corn snow. Awful grabby stuff.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
under a new name wrote:
Quote:

there are about 120 snowHeads hanging on your every word



Why Puzzled

It's mid April. If mountain weather is clear, sunny and lends itself to relaxing days with late starts, lovely corn snow if you get your timing right, zip lining slushy bumps and chilled late lunches on sun soaked terraces then that's what's wanted.

Isn't it?

Otherwise it's likely to be precipitation falling in an unfrozen state which is no fun at all. (Surely somewhat delusional to have expectations otherwise...)


Indeed.

Don't even need late starts if you have some east facing slopes which are soft from the start e.g. La Face at Val Disere.

Conditions were fantastic last week or so, until it snowed.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Thoughts? Looks wet.

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Freezing level between 2300 and 3000 in the early bit of that precipitation? Snow line a couple of hundred lower?
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GFS has a few cooler nights early next week in the eastern Alps but otherwise is pretty mild for the time of year (and dry for most of next week). Not snowy but pleasant spring money.

ECM a bit keener on a cool spell mid week.

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ZAMG going for cooler and some snow for Schladming Tues, Wed next week http://www.bergfex.at/schladming-planai/wetter/berg/. Will be my last few days skiing of the season for me, be nice to finish with a little dust.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
waynos, ZAMG of course relies heavily on data from the ECMWF supercomputer in Reading.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/greenbook/2011/pdf/Austria_GB_2011_AB.pdf
http://www.ecmwf.int/services/computing/overview/supercomputer_history.html
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen, the history of that supercomputer is fascinating.
At that rate of growth, it will only be a few years before we have Deep Thought Smile
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nozawaonsen, thanks, I did wonder where zamg got their model data from.
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Weather wise it's been great spring touring weather with freeze/melt every day, though these last two weeks have really seen the snow disappear very quickly, even a route we did on Monday was looking very bare as we skied past this morning, though should add pistes are still holding up really well.

I can't actually remember the last time we had any significant snow fall here in Serre and it seems we're running on the reserve tank which might just take us through to the end of the season, that said it would be very sweet if the forecast for next Friday onwards holds, though no doubt will all change as we get nearer.

Nice ski off the back into another valley where I'd left the van yesterday and cycled back and more signs that the end of the season is nigh as we came across these two.

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Re Ischgl was snowing last webcam from yesterday and still snowing this morning - ZAMG(ECM) has forecast more snow today and for the next couple of days and another significant load at the end of the week. Same can be said for Arlberg resorts.

Ischgl and it's snow covered stage (Base Station approx 2200m)

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The last two GFS runs (18z and 00z) have moved closer to the ECM outlook with colder weather developing Tuesday and Wednesday particularly in the eastern Alps before warming up again.

Arlberg



Chamonix



WRF suggests heaviest of any snow will be Monday night Tuesday morning in Austria.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=54#model
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Looks like cold front from NW arriving this afternoon to Austria, pushing temps down and a period of snowfall, hopefully will amount to a useful amount. Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Weathercam wrote:
.......that said it would be very sweet if the forecast for next Friday onwards holds, though no doubt will all change as we get nearer.......


Well what a surprise, it's all changed rolling eyes

But looks like a week of touring and cycling, again, though having to start earlier and earlier to make the most of the conditions.

Just back from a great tour with the dogs from just below the Lautaret, and great spring snow all the way back to where we left the van at 1,900m

This is looking down to La Grave, you can just about make out the traverses from Vallon and Chancel to P1

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Could be some wet (snow high up) weather this weekend. Snow line around 1800m to 2000m on that most recent Chamonix GFS.

Meanwhile more El Niño speculation...

http://www.wired.com/2014/04/el-nino-effects/?mbid=social_fb
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Can I ask a stupid question - what effects do El Nino events have on Europe and especially the alps?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:



Can I ask a stupid question - what effects do El Nino events have on Europe and especially the alps?



It's not a stupid question by a long chalk but I think the answer is quite complicated - I'll be interested to read it too.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Have a look at page 2 of this thread from September.

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=100826&start=40

That said there is some research that suggests a relationship between El Niño conditions, increased SSW and a negative AO and NAO during winter.
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Ischgl village this morning Very Happy - This has been green for 6 weeks!
More snow expected at some point this week - maybe higher up though.

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Looks like a more unsettled spell could be ushered in from 19 April for a week or so. Potentially bringing snow to relatively low levels on Saturday.
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nozawaonsen, sweet!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The next 4 days look sunny and warm at Glencoe with light winds the next 3 days. Could well be some of the best skiing of the season Cool
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Snow above 1800m in avoriaz from lunchtime today, currently heavy rain in morzine ....
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Looks like some good fresh snow in many parts of the Alps. Temperatures will rise again over the next few days though it looks unsettled over the coming week with rain and snow at times. Next weekend in particular looks wet with snow falling to relatively low levels again (not as low as last night though).
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A sprinkling here this morning at 1500m. Nothing the windscreen wipers couldn't flip off the windscreen (though it's been so long since it snowed I forgot to close the door before doing it and got showered.......). I'm packing to leave - just been down to pick up a couple of pairs of skis which have been serviced, got the €2 deposit back on my season pass, said goodbye to all concerned till next year. Thanks for all the weather sense, nozawaonsen
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Fair amounts of snowfall all day around chamonix valley. Nothing settled at town level, but hoping for a decent wodge of freshies tomorrow morning when I hit up gm with my shiny new nordica hell and backs Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
If you're out and about somewhere next week it looks like there could a fair amount of fresh falling on Monday. Could set things up nicely for the last week of April.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I am out for a sneaky last minute trip to Val Thorens on the 1st of may for 5 days. With the dusting of snow over the next week all should good for early may skiing. snowHead
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Its amazing how quiet this thread goes and all the others in fact once Easter has passed.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I was in Val T last week jimmy38. With some new snow it should be good. Even last week the pistes were fine - standard freeze/thaw but in decent nick mostly. Les Menuires in contrast looked like it had roads of snow leading to resort and that's it. Sad
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Next week looks cool in the UK with snow possible over the tops hopefully helping the late season skiing.

Looks as though the cool down might just reach the Alps in time for a final top up before the end of the season there on the 4th May snowHead
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Looks like substantial snowfall in the Alps down to 1400m Sunday into Monday. Potentially further cold weather in the Alps for those skiing into May (and beyond 04 May if it takes your fancy).
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Cham meteo. Why aren't I still in cham?
SUNDAY APRIL 27
Disturbance crossing over - gloomy ‑ heavy precipitation in the morning
SKY CONDITION : overcast. Period of sunshine close to 0%.
PRECIPITATION : continuous - at times heavy in the morning - moderate, becoming light in the afternoon - rain-snow limit towards 1500 m - expected snowfall towards 2000 m : 40-60 cm.
WIND - aloft : SE moderate - light to moderate.
TEMPERATURE : low +3 °C - high +11°C.
Uncertain.

It's the patrole du glaciers race this weekend!!
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jbob, PDG is next weekend. They'll be very grateful for that top up on the lower slopes.
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http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/morning/5_days_weather_forecast.php

Cham meteo are predicting a foot of snow above 7000' by Monday morning. Should be a lot more than that higher up. Warms up mid week then cool again next weekend. Hope the wind stays down. snowHead
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Steve Sparks, got a bit ahead of myself. I'm off to canada on Monday and "this" weekend is gone, well in my head anyway. The pdg was stopped last time due to bad weather/avi conditions, hope they fair better this time. A lot of training and prep has been done.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Looking good for Zermatt next week. We arrive on Wednesday for a short trip of 4 days - bergfex are predicting some impressive snowfall higher up, they seem a little over optimistic to me. Anyone out there from Wed to Sunday?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
SLF has snow down to 1300m in the northern Alps tomorrow. Up to 80cm in places. More on Monday. Next weekend looks chilly for the time of the year.

Weather forecast through Sunday, 27.4.2014

On Saturday night, precipitation is expected to set in from the west which will extend as far as eastern regions by Sunday morning. The precipitation will persist throughout the day and will be heaviest from southern Valais over the Gotthard region into western Ticino.

Fresh snow

The snowfall level will lie initially between 2200 and 2500 m, then during the course of Saturday night will drop down to about 1300 m in northern regions, and to 1800 m in southern regions. Precipitation is expected to be quite heavy; in the closed valleys and in northern regions in particular, the snow level could easily drop much further down.
Above approximately 2000 m, the following amounts of snowfall are anticipated by Sunday evening:
southern Valais, Goms, western and central Ticino: 50 to 80 cm
remaining Valais, western and central sectors of northern flank of the Alps, remaining Ticino and Main Alpine Ridge from Tavetsch into Bergell: 30 to 50 cm
eastern sector of northern flank of the Alps, Val Poschiavo: 20 to 30 cm
northern Grisons, central Grison not including Main Alpine Ridge, Engadine and Münstertal: 10 to 20 cm

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, -2 °C in northern regions and +2 °C in southern regions, with a tendency to drop lower

Wind

At high altitudes and in high alpine regions, moderate to strong velocity winds from southerly directions
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Am i right in saying that your forecast is for the Swiss alps? Any update on the french side?
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I know the seasons are meant to be getting later, but this is pushing it a bit, this kind of snow would have been lovely in early April!!
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