 Poster: A snowHead
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roga, that's where looking at those charts in isolation can be misleading. If you look at the ensembles you can see that there's something a little odd about the op run at that point just as it switches into lo res. The same spike wasn't there in any of the earlier runs. I'm not saying it won't snow at that point (Christmas Eve) just that I'd want to see that cropping up all through tomorrow before taking any real notice of it.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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No worries, I know the score but nice to see all the same - don't worry though I won't be placing any bets on it lol!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The third frame of this (derived from GFS) shows the western and northern Alps generally wetter than normal in the coming week, the southern Alps drier than normal.
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
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I know everyone is looking at the weather for their upcoming Christmas holidays in Europe. But dang, it is coming down here in the PNW. Going to be blizzard like conditions in the Cascade range tonight. 100 kph winds, and between 30CM to as much as a meter in some areas of the central-North Cascades over the next 24 hrs. Add that to about 50CM that fell over the weekend, and close to 5 meters of total snow fall this season.
I of course hope some of that fluffy white snow follows me Eastward...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yup a big storm coming in with some strong winds.
The CMH blog is pretty keen to flag up the BC snowfall too (mind you that may not be unrelated to their desire to sell places on their trips).
http://blog.canadianmountainholidays.com/heli-ski-blog/bid/93312/The-best-powder-skiing-in-North-America-Right-now
Back in the Alps the end if the week is looking increasingly snowy, first on the 21 December then over the weekend.
22/23 December looks mild (snow line touching 2000m in the west, 1700m in the east, perhaps briefly). It also looks wet. Worth keeping an eye on this as it could bring heavy rain to lower levels. Heavy snow higher up.
Chamonix
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Looks like things might really warm up after the new year. Let's hope that changes
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Has anything changed in a last few hours? Just checked Bergfex again for some French and Austrian resorts and they are now (as opposed to the morning) predicting about 5 degrees lower temperatures for 23th-25th Dec.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Obviously I get the basic proposition that snow = good and rain = bad! 
Can someone explain how much damage rain actually does? We are in Les Gets for x-mas and they are forecasting buckets of rain for the end of this week.
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wyspa, it's all very uncertain at the moment, more than a couple of days ahead. Weather's like that, sometimes, thankfully. I'd hate to think that early morning GFS run actually came true!!
1556garyt, with a good base some rain does less damage than you might think to pisted runs but its bl**dy miserable in a ski resort, all the same.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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chrisb, looking that far ahead is pointless. Those charts show the temperature might be -16c or +6c at 1500m in Chamonix at the start of the New Year.
06z reduces the amount of snow for 22/23, but also reduces the snow line to a more acceptable 1500m in the west and 900m in the east, but with a lot of spread and uncertainty.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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1556garyt, given the amount of snow that has already fallen, a bit of rain lower down is unlikely to cause too much of a problem.
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1556garyt,
It has been raining in Morzine for days now. They preempted it by bashing all the pistes. The locals say that a bit of rain is good for the base when it freezes. I'm not so sure. The base in my garden halved over the weekend!
If the snow line is 1200-1400 it won't be too wet if you ski in Avoriaz. If its 1800+ ...... yuk.
Fingers crossed its alright for you and the temperature drops.
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You know it makes sense.
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A function of altitude I think (statement of the obvious). My wife has been in our apartment in Petit Chatel (1300m) since 6 December. To start with it was cold and snowy but since I came home on Mon 10th I think it has turned a bit milder. I guess this is the start of the period that it has been raining on zzz's garden. Around our apartment it has been mostly snow.
Those few hundred metres make all the difference. The bottom of the Abondance valley starts at around 1000m and runs down to Lac Leman. Vallee d'Aulps with Morzine, St Jean d'Aulps etc. is about the same but the skiing starts at that level in Morzine and Les Gets. zzz is right - so long as the snow line is below about 1500m the skiing around Chatel will be fine and a couple of hundered metres lower would make everything but the bottom of the runs in Morzine OK. Let's hope it doesn't rise up to the 1800m+ level.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, yes you are right. I know it is pointless but with my two trips coming up soon I just obsess each day at the wiggles. Your posts are just too good to miss every day, I cant help myself!
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Poster: A snowHead
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1556garyt, like the others say a bit of rain is not a problem but sliding in it isn't the best. Plenty of experience of freeze/thaw here in Scotland and as long as it's not accompanied by hair drier winds should be okay, you'll find it's mainly lower slopes that suffer and even then they'll set up hard with a freeze and be relatively bullet proof as a base for the rest of the season. Ideally what you want is the base nice and solid and then some fresh on top, it's surprising how little fresh on top can make it a great surface to ski on so don't worry too much.
On a related note, but probably of little interest to anyone in the immediate term, snow that's been through a number of freeze/thaws tends to make for far better spring skiing, tending to slide better and be less sticky to ski through, One of the reasons why I always find spring skiing in Scotland preferable to the sticky gloop you can get in the Alps late in the season!
As for weather predictions/charts/forecasts at the moment more than 2/3 days seems to be what they call FI (Fantasy Island) and subject to changes so take anything past a few days with a large pinch of salt right now.
zzz, did you get the 'base' in your garden bashed? Seriously it makes an enormous difference to melt rates!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Avalanche fatality in Kamifurano, Hokkaido, one ski tourer died yesterday morning. 60m wide avalanche, 40-80cm deep fracture. Buried for 15 minutes.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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So it was a windy early morning in my neighborhood. Power went out very briefly. As I was listening to tree branches fall on my roof, I was doing a math puzzle of how long it would take the jet stream at 200 mph to wind its way to the Alps. And where would it hit when it got across the pond? I figure it will be sometime Tuesday evening, and that it will bring some cold temps, and moisture, that will dump it's pressure cargo of snow on????
Lots of tree limbs and trees down in the foothills of the Cascades. I suspect most upper lifts will not be running today in the Cascades. But Tuesday should be good, as patrol will have tough time bombing the mtn. 25" reported at Crystal. 15" reported at Stevens Pass. Whistler reporting 8" of new. Should be really stellar conditions for Euros heading to Western Canada for Christmas/New Years. Just shy of 500cm of snow fall at Whistler already.
In regards to the Alps, I guess the weather models seem to be a lot like the US Congress and President Obama. They just can't agree....
Zermatt's own website seems to indicate a brief warming period in the middle of the week, followed by more cold temps and snow around the evening of the 21st. Which would be perfect. I'll be itching to ski some fresh Swiss Powpow 
As far as rain goes. I personally don't think it's a good thing. If a bit of rain comes down in the very early season, that's fine. But at this point, with so much snow having already fallen, then rain can cause serious issues with the off-piste. Not so much an issue with the pisted runs. But of course it goes without saying skiing in the rain, well, it just plain sucks.
So I started packing last night for cooler temps. Plus I packed up the mid-fats for all the fresh powder I will be skiing. 
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Toadman, I'm liking the optimistic packing decisions. The forecasts seem to be all over the shop so I assume we'll be getting changeable winter weather for the rest of winter.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
the weather models seem to be a lot like the US Congress and President Obama. They just can't agree....
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nice to have a trans-atlantic point of view.
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| Toadman wrote: |
| It will be a Christmas miracle. |
It's been snowing for the best part of the last 16 days and is currently snowing hard in Les Arcs. I think Christmas has arrived early. This, for example, was taken eight days ago in Meribel:
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^Now THAT is what i'm talking about!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It's gone daft again. over 3" of rain in Morzine on 22 December, same in Avoriaz, even more in Chamonix, according to snow forecast.  The outlook had better be uncertain! The GFS spike is ridiculous!
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pam w, second time the GFS has shown a spike and the temperatures are now showing a closing of the pattern. Looks like the weekend before Christmas is going to be wet to quite high levels
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Be interesting to see if it's still in 18z......
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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A version of it is, strong, but not as strong as the 12z. See how it plays out tomorrow.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yer a little upsetting that it keeps flicking to the +s, there is even rain forecast @ 2000m in La Plagne. I am just hoping to god that this doesn't carry into the new year. I'm going mid -late jan and in late march. The jan trip in not too worried about but the late march one I am a little panicky about. Not so much for me but my rents will be skiing low alt and with all the rain I don't know how good the base will be for the rest of the season.
I have heard conflicting things but some seem to say that some rain then a drop in temps is somewhat a good thing as it will result in the snow freezing hard, a dump of snow ontop and you are laughing. Either way I suppose it is too early to say what the rest of the season will hold. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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xander89, seriously? Your worrried about a march trip???? Been skiing at Easter for 12+ years. Always had decent snow & often powder
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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xander89, I'd be a bit frustrated about the rain on 23 December if I was in resort then, but that's going to have no relevance at all to what conditions will be like in late Jan and as for late March absolutely no connection at all. I'm a little puzzled why you seem to think there might be?
Spells of milder weather at Christmas are pretty common. So much so they even have their own name Weihnachtstauwetter.
Anyway snow to around 1200m (1000m in the west) on 21/22 December, heavy rain up to 2000m (1700m) on 22/23, but Christmas Day could bring heavy snow to low levels as temperatures fall. Strong winds in the days up to Christmas.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| pam w wrote: |
| It's gone daft again. Over 3" of rain in Morzine on 22 December, same in Avoriaz, even more in Chamonix, according to snow forecast. |
THE MAYANS SAW THIS COMING.
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nozawaonsen, French Alps, when is it going to stop snowing? If I don't see the sun soon I'm going to get SAD.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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rob@rar, tomorrow.
Should be a great day.
Before the heavy snow (and for a period rain) and wind returns.
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nozawaonsen, thanks. Not that I want to complain about all this snow, but avy risk remains high and Les Arcs seems to be taking a very cautious approach to opening lifts. A (perhaps) brief respite from all this snowy goodness would allow the snowpack to settle a little and some more terrain to become available.
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| Quote: |
A (perhaps) brief respite from all this snowy goodness
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be careful what you wish for, rob@rar
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I suspect the precipitation amount shown on the GFS 00z Op run will be moderated somewhat before the 23rd especially for the French resorts. It doesn't have much agreement with the other member runs at that stage.
As for the temperatures, they don't look as bad on the European ECMWF model especially for the Eastern Alps. The 23rd is still 5 days away and just minor adjustments in the models could reduce the snowline for the better.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| xander89, I'd be a bit frustrated about the rain on 23 December if I was in resort then. |
My first day of this holiday  and I've booked lessons for our first 3 mornings so not sure how long it'll take for the instructor to take us higher above the rain. Hopefully one short run will give the instructor confidence to take us high. SF is forecasting rain, but hopefully as Noza says less rain in the East - we're in Arabba.
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hammerite, to be honest it's still too far away to be certain what will happen. Chill out and see what is happenning when you draw the curtains back on your first day. I'm sure in the worst case an instructor isn't going to want to ski in rain either!!
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