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A snowHead

Hopefully warmer weather and rain should be clearing through the Alps this morning to be replaced with colder temperatures and some further snowfall down to the valleys! Very Happy

After a couple of rather chilly days (especially on the Swiss Austrian border, -37C grab anyone?), temperatures will recover on 28 and 29 December, probably faster the further west you are. And sit slightly above average.

High pressure looks like it is going to be in charge from 27 December. Possibly for a long time. Temperatures will be average or just above over New Year and the weather should be settled. Good chance for clear blue skies from 27/28 December. As a result temperatures are still likely to drop over night. This long pattern of high pressure looks set to last well into the New Year at present.

A couple of thoughts. ECM does toy with bringing a low pressure system into southern Europe around New Year. At present it's path would be too far south to have much impact on the Alps. There is a continuing signal (not very strong) for temperatures to fall below seasonal average from early in the New Year.

Meanwhile New Year looks like being Under Pressure. wink

Under Pressure

A snowHead

Snowing heavily along the northern edge of the German Alps and looks set to last all day. We have an extreme weather warning out for the next 24 hours, but as there is little or no traffic at the moment on the roads I don't see me having any problems driving the 120kms to my friend's house for Christmas Eve.

Temperatures have taken a dive - +11°C yesterday in Rosenheim, barely above 0°C right now and still heading south. Looks like it will be good skiing tomorrow or Boxing Day!

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Samerberg Sue, Safe driving!

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Just need the high to break around mid jan please Smile

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nozawaonsen, thanks for that - no worries about traffic chaos down here though - got my chains in the car if it turns out bad! Tomorrow will be fun though as we are forecast up to 20cms of new snow and 1st Weihnachtstag (as it is called here) is the big travelling to the ski resort for the New Year's holiday. Tonight there will be little or no traffic on the roads as Christmas Eve is the important family time!

Have a great Christmas wherever you are and keep posting the maps, they are fascinating and the speculation/anticipation is part of the fun!

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Samerberg Sue, no sign of snow or drop in temps in schladming yet. Piste dead quite, in spring like conditions, so had a nice little ski. Hoping santa brings some powder for tomorrow. Been watching the radar and weather reports can see snow / rain to the south west and north. Fingers crossed.

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pelting it down in the Monte Rosa valley Very Happy

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milnerhome, are you there?

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milnerhome, looking forward to seeing the footage Cool

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milnerhome, just make sure you have the GoPro tied to something! A failed mount and a lost GoPro would not be a sweet end :loL:

brian

kitenski, we just need one big fall after the first week of January to cover up the tracks of the NY hordes. wink

You know it makes sense.

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started snowing in schladming, cheers santa Little Angel

A snowHead

Looks like good snow pretty much across the Alps today with some more to come for many tomorrow! Very Happy

For those keeping an eye on the Far East that Siberian storm is rolling in right on schedule and already snowing heavily in Hokkaido and even more so in Hakuba (between 30 and 60cms in last 24 hours in places according to Snow Japan and this is only day one of several days of snow for Japan over next week or so!).

The pattern in the Alps for the next few days out into FI remains fairly set. More indications this evening that temperatures will [edit: might! wink

] start dropping slightly beneath average from early in January.

Happy Christmas!

A snowHead

you too... snowHead

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nozawaonsen, Happy Christmas and thanks for the amazing posts. This thread is magic!

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nozawaonsen, Yes, good work and Happy Christmas.

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nozawaonsen, off topic slightly to wish you and the other experts a very Merry Christmas! Oh and.........

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nozawaonsen, Happy Christmas from me, too, and thanks for all the forecasts. Lovely light fluffy snow here, and though today's forecast was just for "quelque flocons" it's actually still snowing quite hard. I am baby minding and cooking Christmas dinner but it's nice to look out at and have a break from sorting out a whole pile of skis, boots, bindings, unmatching gloves, ski passes etc etc etc. It's just like when they were 6!

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pam w, thy don't get any better when they grow up do they? rolling eyes

. Have a good Christmas.

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Thanks for all the informed and erudite analysis this season..

We've had snow today in Lincolnshire.. ho ho ho snowHead

Well looking round the posts from different areas it looks as though the snow is pretty good all over.

Result, nozawaonsen, can you keep it up for the season?

You know it makes sense.

A few things which caught my eye this evening...

The last few runs have continued to press the line that any warm up in the Alps will be short. And cold will be right back in the frame from early January...

In the short term the temperatures tomorrow and Monday look like being very cold in the Alps (especially around Swiss/Austrian border). Most of the snow has probably worked it's way through by tomorrow. And high pressure starts to take control.

Temperatures do go up quite sharply on 27 December, by 28 December they are around seasonal average and look inclined to stay there for a few days...

But around New Year's Day the cold drives back in again from the north and if this evening's ensembles are on the mark by 02 January temperatures will be right down to -5C to -10C at 1500m if not lower (colder in the east).

High Pressure will be sitting over much of Europe (indeed centred on the UK for much of the period), so not much in the way of snow on the horizon for the time being, but along with the cold weather the Arctic also sends down a couple of strong low pressure systems in FI, though they are currently modeled to run too far east to have much impact on the Alps.

So a cold start to January in the Alps by the looks of things (though probably a rather dry one and possibly a pleasantly sunny one).

Back in the UK the Met Office forecast for January is worth reading:

"UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Jan 2011 to Sunday 23 Jan 2011:

The cold conditions look set to continue across the UK, with particularly cold temperatures likely across central parts. This gives a continuing risk of widespread frosts overnight for most regions. Sunshine and precipitation amounts look set to be around average for mid-January but, given the continuing low temperatures, it is likely that many places will see further snow at times."

wink

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Snow on Tuesday/Wednesday?

At present as the last of the current snow clears south through Italy, it looks like the Atlantic will have a further brief attempt to move in over the next couple of days before it gets pushed back and high pressure establishes itself over much of Europe just ahead of New Year...

As the milder moist Atlantic air pushes in it does raise the potential of snow showers (turning to rain) over much of the UK on Tuesday 28 December...

The edge of the same system looks like it will be brushing into the Alps later on 28 December and overnight into 29 December on Wednesday morning.

This looks to be what remains of the system which was showing up about a week ago and then faded. How much snow it will actually bring is debatable, in the UK it could easily just be snow on higher ground and sleet or quite possibly just rain lower down. Similarly the ensembles for the Alps are not suggesting anything more than light snow at the moment.

That said forecasted snow quantities can shift and change at short notice and there are those who argue it could be something more significant such as Piers Corbyn on WeatherAction

"Two waves of blizzards and drifting snow especially 25th-27th & 29/30th largely for East/South Britain and for a large part of NorthWest Europe (along with thundersnow) around South Scandinavia, Benelux, N Germany, North Poland and perhaps parts of the Baltic States. AND that thundersnow is likley in (North) Italy in this period also."

Corbyn is an independent forecaster who has something of a reputation for being an outspoken global warming sceptic and has clashed with the main stream media in the past. That said he also forecast two weeks ago that there would be blizzards in the US during this period:

"Very Major snow and blizzard events will strike NE & E USA in a double hit centered around 25-27th & 29-30th Dec; One of the most significant snowfall/blizzard periods in NE & east USA for decades."

Cue "Mid-Atlantic, Northeast brace for monster storm: A band of frigid weather snaking its way up the East Coast Sunday threatened to bring blizzards and a foot of snow to New York City and New England... AP"

Anyway worth keeping an eye on...

A snowHead

Met Office have issued Flash and Early warnings of Heavy Snow in Scotland tonight into tomorrow and much of England on Tuesday. Snow in England on Tuesday still has a rather marginal feel to it at the moment given the milder temperatures coming in, but it's on the edge...

A snowHead

Warmer temperatures should be starting to make themselves felt in the Alps during today and over night. Given how cold it has been over the last couple of days, this warm up is little more than a return to seasonal average temperatures, probably a little above.

It is still looking like a weak system will move through tomorrow into Wednesday (29 December)moving west to east, bringing some snowfall. From the latest models it looks like it could bring an inch or two to Switzerland and Austria (possibly a little more locally).

After that high pressure starts to impose itself and there could be some pretty pleasant, settled weather (blue skies?) over New Year.

It does still look however like cold temperatures are ready to come back in from the Arctic, with temperatures falling back down to -5C to -10C at 1500m on or around 02 January (Sunday).

High Pressure is still very much in control for much of the rest of today's runs.

However. There is still a tendency for the Arctic to send down a couple of low pressure systems in FI, around 05 to 07 January. Previous runs have suggested these might be too far east to have much impact on the Alps, more recently they have been drawing closer, suggesting the potential for further snow. Certainly one to watch... wink

Back in the UK, the Met Office has pulled back a little on it's early warning for snow focussing it (though not exclusively) on the East and North East. Temperatures remain marginal for snow.

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At the moment it looks to me like if it does snow tomorrow night into Wednesday it will be focussed further east around Switzerland and Austria.

The further east you are in France the more likely you are to get some light snow from the current models. I would have thought you might get a little where you are tomorrow afternoon evening, but it doesn't look like it will be a large fall.

Some interesting things going on in the 12z runs...

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Overall the next week or two are still looking pretty dry. You can see an indication of this from the "Precipitation Outlook for Europe." It looks slightly better in the east (Austria and the Dolomites), but overall a fairly dry period against the norm.

There is a possibility of some light snowfall in the Alps tomorrow afternoon and into Wednesday (the latest runs continue to move it slightly further east).

The 12z GFS (and to an extent UKMO) starts to rebuild high pressure over Greenland setting up a potential block and allowing very cold air back into Europe and towards the UK in early January, particularly around the 05 January. This evening's run doesn't quite pull it off and it doesn't hold much beyond the 09 January allowing milder weather back. Low pressure comes into Europe from the north, but stays north and again doesn't trouble the Alps on this run... Worth watching though...

Temperature wise it still looks like quite a cool down around 02 January in the Alps dropping 10C or more by 05 January. So cold and dry? (and probably pretty sunny from midweek).

Here are some ensembles for Solden.

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flat line...

Looks like January skiers (like me) will be getting 'hard skiing on fast pistes' under bludebird skies Very Happy

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I rather enjoyed GFS 18z! Shows how January could turn really rather snowy in the Alps (and the UK)!

Builds high pressure into Greenland. The block allows cold to flood into Europe. Low Pressure system dips in from the Arctic, then FI sees waves of low pressure systems coming in from the Atlantic and Adriatic into the Alps and into the cold temperatures.

After several days of high pressure, snow from the edge of a system coming in from the north on 02 January... (systems coming from the Arctic will often tend to have lost quite a lot of precipitation by the time they reach the Alps).

Heavier snow from the north on 05 into 06 January...

More Heavy snow on 09, 10, 11 and 12 January...

Will it happen? Probably not like that (and 18z is arguably one of the less reliable runs in any case - it ain't called the "pub run" for nothing) and with the models the way they are it could all switch to high pressure. But it shows what is possible. Worth watching!

wink

[NB: light snow for parts of the Alps is looking really rather light tomorrow afternoon and evening if it shows at all, well see]

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nozawaonsen, Whats the general state of the snow across France and Switzerland. Anywhere that i should avoid as a last minute deal due to poor snow or is there anywhere that has had bucket loads?

18z sadly had been enjoying itself far too much...

One bourbon, one scotch, one beer...

This morning's output has too much high pressure dominating Europe.

So whilst one block builds over Greenland, nothing can really shift the additional high pressure over Europe and low pressure (and more snow) is locked out.

(06z far FI is really rather unappealing...).

In the short term the temperatures look like falling even further in early January (-30C in places on 03 January overnight).

However, the operational is not the only run. And a number of other runs are clearly shuffling snowier options from about 05 January (in fairness they don't have much support. Yet.) with perhaps a little appetiser on 02 January.

In the meantime high pressure and cold temperatures from the New Year and some blue skies to look forward to.

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Interesting 12z GFS this evening. Leaning rather towards the 18z GFS of yesterday evening... wink

So as the remains of the light snow clears through today and tonight, high pressure would start building across the continent and separately building a block over Greenland (GFS, UKMO and ECM all lining up on this...). As the Atlantic is cut off cold weather starts to move down from the Arctic. Skies should start clearing across the Alps leaving "blaue himmel" conditions to set up over the New Year period (from Thursday?).

Initially temperatures are going to be slightly above average, before the Arctic cold reaches the Alps on 02 January and by 04 January it will be very cold once again (especially in the Tirol with temperatures reaching -30C overnight on Monday 03 into Tuesday). By Friday 07 January it looks like temperatures will be on the move up again towards seasonal averages.

As far as snowfall goes there are signals for light snow around 02 January, but perhaps more interestingly the low pressure breaks through in FI with various options for snow in the Alps from 05 January, building on 07 January and 09 January. With the current operational run you'd want to watch the temperatures as these could be relatively high in FI. That said this particular pattern for FI is very likely to chop and change so the detail is not that important, what is interesting is to see that there are some options for snow in the Alps being picked up in the runs in the distance.

Of course this blocking could also see serious cold (and snow) returning to the UK...

Chamonix ensembles

Polar Vortex spinning off towards the UK... (ECM)

Will be interesting to see if the charts still look like this tomorrow evening...

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