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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

"And then we start preparing the weapon..."


I bet the French are pig sick they opted for Gazex
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looking at temperatures. A short lived warmer spell over the next couple of days before things start to cool down below average accompanied by fresh snow. From the middle of next week it looks like warming up a little and from 20/21 December for about a week tentatively average or slightly milder than average.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
thats some super cool avalanche control NehNeh
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Quote:

from 20/21 December for about a week tentatively average or slightly milder than average.

that'll do me very nicely. Plenty of snow, but not too cold to take the grandchildren out toboganning. snowHead
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
pam w wrote:
Quote:

from 20/21 December for about a week tentatively average or slightly milder than average.

that'll do me very nicely. Plenty of snow, but not too cold to take the grandchildren out toboganning. snowHead


whilst I quite like cold and crisp, I'm not sure I fancied the -20-ish C temps that have been reported this last couple of weeks, so I agree Pam.
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

from 20/21 December for about a week tentatively average or slightly milder than average.

that'll do me very nicely. Plenty of snow, but not too cold to take the grandchildren out toboganning. snowHead


No grandchildren for me yet (nor for some time I hope) but shaping up to be a fab Christmas week snowHead
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ok getting paranoid Shocked now that a repeat of a few years ago is on the cards !

Cold in the Alps in early to mid December with loads of snow, followed by unseasonally mild weather in end of December and January ! Obviously there will be snow to ride but would be a shame if warm weather turns everything into hard pack and ice !

I am no expert at looking at the models but currently i keep seeing dreaded yellow colours denoting really warm temperatures later this month and also potential precipitation eg rain at the lower part of the resorts and perhaps even the higher if the temperature suggestions are correct.

Noza always says there is little confidence at more then 3-4 days out but it does appear that quite a few runs are now supporting this prediction for end of next week onwards.

As ever i hope Noza will be able to give some wise words and hopefully tell me I am wrong regarding this but i can't help but worry Sad

I think perhaps i am a little to obsessed with this forum and the forecasts, might have to go cold turkey and stop looking then when i am out there whatever happens happens and i just enjoy being in the mountains snowHead oh the problem of being a powder junky Toofy Grin
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

I think perhaps i am a little to obsessed with this forum and the forecasts, might have to go cold turkey and stop looking then when i am out there whatever happens happens and i just enjoy being in the mountains


I think it's important that you do!
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harri20000, In my experience the forecast / conditions obsession-disorder that many of us suffer from prior to going away vanishes naturally of its own accord when actually in the mountains.

It's also an observable fact that - given a reasonable amount of skiable terrain - conditions themselves play a very much smaller part in the enjoyment of the holiday than we anticipate.

Easy to say but I'm still here, still obsessing after 30 years rolling eyes Laughing

(ps) looks like Tues and Weds could be good next week in Tignes Smile )


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 14-12-12 12:59; edited 1 time in total
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harri20000, stop worrying, it won't make any difference! Last January was the best ever. Some mahoosive dumps of snow (northern french alps) and loads of sunshine. The second half of the season wasn't great, but December/January was the best for many a year.
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Just as the same chain fastens the prisoner and soldier who guards him, so hope and fear, dissimilar as they are, keep step together...each alike belongs to a mind that is in suspense, a mind that is fretted by looking forward to the future..... we do not adapt ourselves to the present but send our thoughts a long way ahead. And so foresight, the noblest blessing of the human race, becomes perverted. Beasts avoid the dangers which they see, and when they have escaped them are free from care; but we men torment ourselves over that which is to come as well as over that which is past...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Seneca 2, Smile
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Seneca 2, Laughing If that weren't the case this thread wouldn't have 24 pages before mid December!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Hope it all cools down a bit for the new year, not a fan of skiing in the positives. -5 is ideal Cool
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
red 27, pam w, Seneca 2, thanks folks paranoia subsiding now - just itching to get to the mountains and enjoy it what ever the conditions, Very Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
red 27 wrote:


(ps) looks like Tues and Weds could be good next week in Tignes Smile )


I spotted that Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Piccadilly, we've probably jinxed it now Laughing
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
red 27, shhhhhhhh!!
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[quote="red 27"]harri20000, In my experience the forecast / conditions obsession-disorder that many of us suffer from prior to going away vanishes naturally of its own accord when actually in the mountains.

+1
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Tomorrow doesn't look great in the Alps, but it will bring snow to higher levels. After that temperatures will drop and there should be a fair bit of snow to come particularly (but certainly not only) in the French Alps.

Temperatures continue to fall until mid week. At which point you may also get some sunshine. Temperatures rising through the end of the week. With temperatures tending towards average (Zermatt, Chamonix) or slightly mild for the season (the Arlberg). In absolute terms the temperatures east and west are fairly similar it just tends to be colder at this time of the year in the east (hence why it looks a little milder than normal).

More snow around 21 December looking possible for the southern French Alps at present.

Les Deux Alpes

A fairly mild spell for Scotland coming.

Cairngorm

harri20000, don't be daft. Pull yourself together.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Tomorrow doesn't look great in the Alps, but it will bring snow to higher levels. After that temperatures will drop and there should be a fair bit of snow to come particularly (but certainly not only) in the French Alps.

Temperatures continue to fall until mid week. At which point you may also get some sunshine. Temperatures rising through the end of the week. With temperatures tending towards average (Zermatt,

More snow around 21 December looking possible for the southern French Alps at present.


harri20000, don't be daft. Pull yourself together.


Speaking of Zermatt. Just looking at one of the weather sights, and it looks like Saturday could see somewhere in the range of 15CM to 30CM of snow. I hope that turns out to be the case. And it looks like the mid mountian level, at 2,000 meters will be spared any precip as rain. Maybe, even down to 1,700 meters might be okay.

I still prefer the colder temps to the milder temps though! wink
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Toadman wrote:
I still prefer the colder temps to the milder temps though! wink


+1
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
It's coming down heavily in Val D'Isere this morning....


heavy snow by kitenski, on Flickr
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Snow in La Tania this morning. Turning to rain now Sad
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Some good snow to come in the next few days as temperatures drop from today's milder values.



Temperatures warming in the second half of the week and the last few runs on both GFS and ECM have bought in some very mild weather being dragged up from North Africa for Christmas...


http://youtube.com/v/XIX0ZDqDljA&list=PLDB117EEC21732228&index=1

But the 06z counters this by taking things back to deep cold from Boxing Day (all FI mind you...)...


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Mon 17-12-12 10:47; edited 7 times in total
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Every time the temperatures go mild for a while we seem to get more queries on our Val Thorens apartment. No substitute for altitude I suppose.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen wrote:

Temperatures warming in the second half of the week and the last few runs on both GFS and ECM have bought in some very mild weather being dragged up from North Africa for Christmas...


Seriously hope that Xmas forecast fizzles out to nothing!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
if we all hang are back bottoms out the windows pointing south after christmas dinner maybe we could blow it south?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
What does FI stand for?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
hd, Fantasy Island.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quick glance at this evening's GFS has further snow on the 21/22 December (following on from the snow over the next few days). Temperatures still looking pretty mild on 23/24 December.
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hd, as in too far in the future to really be worth paying too much attention to.

Nothing to do with miniature mexicans
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
if we all hang are back bottoms out the windows pointing south after christmas dinner maybe we could blow it south?

Really?
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A few thoughts on the 18z. The basic pattern remains the same from previous runs today.

- good snowfall particularly in the western Alps as temperatures fall below average over the next few days. Calming down midweek.
- temperatures close normal by end of week with further snow next Friday, snowline around 1200m+. Looking heaviest in the western Alps.
- 23/24 December looking rather mild. Cooling from Boxing Day.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
And some extracts from this afternoon's SLF

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN

"Sunday

In northern and western regions skies will frequently be heavily overcast, accompanied by intermittent snowfall. Snowfall level at 1000 m...

Fresh snow

By Sunday evening the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected:

- western part of northern flank of the Alps and Valais, 15 to 30 cm
- remaining northern flank of the Alps, Gotthard region and Grisons, 5 to 15 cm...

Wind

In northern regions strong, in southern regions light to moderate westerly winds...

Outlook until Tuesday

On Monday and Tuesday in northern and western regions, repeated snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level will drop to below 1000 m. In southern regions it is expected to be quite sunny on both days. The avalanche situation in northern and western regions will remain tense and the danger level could increase further from region to region on Monday... "
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nozawaonsen wrote:
And some extracts from this afternoon's SLF

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN

"Sunday

In northern and western regions skies will frequently be heavily overcast, accompanied by intermittent snowfall. Snowfall level at 1000 m...

Fresh snow

By Sunday evening the following amounts of new fallen snow are expected:

- western part of northern flank of the Alps and Valais, 15 to 30 cm
- remaining northern flank of the Alps, Gotthard region and Grisons, 5 to 15 cm...

Wind

In northern regions strong, in southern regions light to moderate westerly winds...

Outlook until Tuesday

On Monday and Tuesday in northern and western regions, repeated snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level will drop to below 1000 m. In southern regions it is expected to be quite sunny on both days. The avalanche situation in northern and western regions will remain tense and the danger level could increase further from region to region on Monday... "


Bummed about the avy danger. Still hope for a chance to ski some off-piste in Zermatt over Christmas. Not going to take any chances though. Hopefully things settle down over the next week. But warm temps, winds, up and down freeze levels, plus large dumps of snow don't make a recipe for good and stable snow pack.

I guess I will have to make some last minute adjustments to the packing list before I head to the airport on Wed. evening for my flt to GVA. Cold? Mild? Powder skis? all mtn? Puzzled
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Christmas Day looks like it could be the pivot. Warming up to 5C above average by Christmas Eve, before dropping to 10C below average from Boxing Day with snow in tow. Nice.

Before that a snowy few days to come between now and midweek, pushing across from the west as temperatures fall.

Wednesday could be a smashing day, starting cold, with the weather clearing and the sun coming out after the snowfall. But obviously the avalanche risk will be an issue (or rather the temptation to push things may be an issue).

Off in FI temperatures continue to fall with support from the control and operational. Let's see how 06z handles it.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
06z keeps the pattern the same. Warming up next weekend before cooling down from Christmas Day/Boxing Day. Not quite as dramatic a cool down as the 00z, but below average all the same.

Decent amounts of snow coming in the next few days as temperatures drop. Wednesday looking good for clearer weather.
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Further snow coming through on Friday and quite possibly Sunday though by then temperatures will be on the rise.

GFS still cools things down from Christmas Day, though ECM less convinced.

Here's SLF on the next few days:

"Monday

In northern and western regions skies frequently will be heavily overcast accompanied by intermittent snowfall. Snowfall level will be 1000 m. In southern regions it will be quite sunny.

Fresh snow

By Monday evening, the following amounts of snowfall are anticipated:
-western Jura, western sector of northern flank of the Alps, Valais, 15 to 30 cm; in the westernmost part of Lower Valais, as much as 40 cm
-remaining northern flank of the Alps, 10 to 20 cm
-regions bordering to the south, less than 10 cm; in Ticino and in Upper Engadine, just a few centimeters...

Outlook until Wednesday

Tuesday

On Tuesday snowfall is anticipated in northern regions in particular. The snowfall level will drop down to about 600 m...

Wednesday

On Wednesday it will turn increasingly sunny in northern regions and in southern regions be predominantly so. The avalanche danger will gradually subside."
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Some good snow to come in the next few days as temperatures drop from today's milder values.


Hopefully it'll come off, liking that 61 over NE Scotland - already top to bottom riding at Cairngorm so if that comes off it'll be a total bonus snowHead

Freezing tonight in Aviemore too which is always good and hopefully a sign of a general temperature drop after a slightly milder couple of nights.
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