Still a big model divergence this morning. Looking at the T+144 (GFS 06z will shortly roll over the top of this and spoil it but ....):
ECM has atlantic lows pushing right across the UK, mild to positively tropical SWerlys are the order of the day and the alps are about to get a mix of precipitation types.
UKMO, the atlantic is held off and HP forms over Scandi, the alps stay in a very cold but predominantly dry airstream.
GFS stays somewhere in the middle. More like the UKMO but the UK is right in the battleground between the mild and cold air masses. All sorts of fun and games to be had on the cold side of that front! Again, very cold but mainly dry in the alps.
brian
brian Guest
The Foehn effect (in large scale).
Moist air circulates anti-clockwise around the Low pressure centred just off Portugal. As it arrives at the alps, the moisture is squeezed out, as cloud or precipitation. Turning water vapour into liquid releases energy into the air, so the air is warmed and arrives as a hairdryer in the valleys to the lee of the mountains. On this chart you can see a clear pool of warmed air sitting to the north of the alps.
This post brought to you by the s meteorological education board, but don't have nightmares.
brian
brian Guest
12z GFS out to xmas eve so far, the block looks a little more substantial on this one. Good news for those of us with fingers crossed for a Boxing Day excursion up north.
brian
brian Guest
Ooh, atlantic grinds to a halt. If it would grind a couple of hundred miles further west I'd be a happy bunny.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nooooooo keep it out there - i know it'll mean the snow won't come but there will be pumping surf for christmas!!!!!!
Hmmmm, this looks rather chilly in the Arlberg over Boxing Day...
00z and 06z backed off a bit from snow in Austria on 23/24 December, 12z pushed back and argued for more...
[edited to correct month...]
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 24-12-10 20:54; edited 2 times in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
August? Talk about long term forecasting
After all it is free
After all it is free
Indeed! Inspired by Peroni that was!! Assume December for August... Doh! Sorry... (that would have been terribly cold for August...)
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Quote:
that would have been terribly cold for August
not to mention would have triggered a whole lot of instant climate experts declaring global warming to be over.
brian, great stuff, thanks. Is there any way of "anchoring" those links so that we keen disciples who sit at the feet of the gurus of the s MEB can relate words and pictures without having to sit up all night to catch them before they get rolled over?
Seems we shall either die of exposure in the bitter cold of the Alps over Christmas or get drowned in a deluge of rain. Ah well, got to get there first.
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Winter Solstice.
Milder air is coming in and rain at lower levels in the Alps is looking increasingly likely in the next few days, tomorrow and then Christmas Eve. It will be snow (quite a bit) at heights (above 2000m or so) and indeed on Christmas Eve temperatures will drop sharply turning any rain into snow down to the valleys.
Cold, possibly very cold, in places on Christmas Day (could be quite a nice day in the mountains!)
Warms up again after Boxing Day and the potential for more snow in the Alps on 29 December (with again rain at lower levels).
Here are the Chamonix ensembles:
Interesting to see the operational run into FI in this morning's ensembles. Similar picture for the London ensembles
The operational looks left and right... then... makes a break for it at the end of the month... charging for the the colder weather again... will it make it?
pam w, unfortunately I am usually to lazy to save the charts rather than posting updating links. Although I did it for the foehn explanation above.
Anyhow, the will it or won't it atlantic incursion continues to be up in the air.
Latest UKMO: here comes the low ...
... but it stalls completely and is forced back towards Greenland ...
The result of that could be a *lot* of UK snow where the cold air undercuts the front. GFS still has the mild air getting right across the UK with a heavy snow quickly turning to rain sort of affair on the 26th/27th.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Met Office now mentioning "blizzard conditions are possible" in UK between Christmas and New Year.
And their milder outlook for start to 2011 hedged "Whilst maybe not as cold as in the lead up to Christmas, temperatures look to remain generally on the cold side into the New Year, especially across eastern areas of the UK."
Looks like possible Christmas Eve snow in Austria has been upped a bit. Still looks likely to start as rain in France on Thursday. Snow on Christmas Day too now. Boxing Day a more likely candidate for (very) cold and clear.
Possibility of snow around 29 December still looks good in Alps. Indeed New Year's period in general looking rather unsettled... and potentially snowy.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
how much snow on the 29th could we be talking here?
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
milnerhome, still only possible for 29 December... Could all fade to nothing at that distance...
You might be more interested in the amount of snow heading into Aosta Valley over next few days!
looks like good potential for another boxing day of skiing fresh powder at Cairngorm
however, does it also look like good potential for not being able to get there due to snow on the roads
brian
brian Guest
shoogly,
There is now a fax chart for Boxing Day ...
If it comes off like that, the snow probably won't reach Scotland and certainly not Cairngorm until well into the evening. It would be a cold and clear start with the wind picking up from the South during the day and gradually clouding over. However, equivalent GFS chart has the front already well across Ireland and Cairngorm in a howling gale all day.
In other words, wait and see.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
brian wrote:
In other words, wait and see.
as ever
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen,
I've been watching the forecast for heavy snow but it hasn't materialised yet so I wasn't that confident on it actually happening.
This morning's output slightly easing back on potential snowfall in the Alps at the end of the week, but also prolonging it into Christmas Day. Looking like it will announce itself as rain in much of the Alps before turning to snow. Boxing Day very cold. Warms up after that quickly, suggestion of snow around 29 December more of a suggestion at the moment.
The amount of snow in the Alps from 23 December over Christmas will all come down to the positioning of the low pressure over Europe (see below) and how it sits. Which is the same thing which will decide how fresh the winds in the Channel are at the end of the week and also the same thing which could bring some snow to the South East on Christmas Day...
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen,
I see that GFS have significantly downgraded the 'event' that was predicted for the Arlberg on or around the 29th, in fact its disappeared
At least the 24th/25th snow is still there
The region looks predominantly dry now from boxing day onwards, what are the chances of this changing (he says selfishly thinking about trip on 2nd Jan)....
The various models are having a tremendous struggle trying to model what will happen over Christmas let alone as far out as New Year. The possibility of one or two low pressure systems moving around Europe in the run up to New Year has been a feature of a number of runs over the last few days. At that range of course it is highly subject to change.
The last few GFS runs have gone for high pressure establishing itself across much of Europe over New Year (which would bring much more settled weather). But we are still too far out (especially with the problems the models are having dealing with such extreme weather). If by tomorrow 00z all the runs are still modelling the High Pressure I'd begin to see this as the dominant trend in FI for those dates. But it is all chopping and changing even more quickly than usual at the moment!
Keep watching!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen,
Thankyou weathergod
After all it is free
After all it is free
Few people interested in the rain and snow over France tomorrow.
Here is the WRF model for this evening (2200z)
You can see the band of heavy rain stretching up towards Belgium and Germany having arrived in the Loire earlier this afternoon. Snow at the northern edge of the band (the cross hatched area) including the Paris area. It doesn't look in this model like it will actually reach Calais, but it will snow heavily around Picardie and Belgium between now and 0600 tomorrow.
The same model shows another band of snow across Champagne and Luxembourg (?) tomorrow evening at 1900.
Winds in the Channel incidentally looking strongest Thursday night into Friday morning (about force 7) before dropping on Friday.
Friday (Christmas Evening) morning sees colder temperatures across France and snow. Across France. Possibly slipping into the South East of England (possibly).
GFS 18z
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So any chance of Yad Moss getting snow, it appears there and Leeds have missed all the recent snow and just gone for the cold
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kitenski, can't see anything in the near term...
Japan though is another story. Looks like it is about to get repeated bombardments of heavy snow...
Look at the storm barreling in from Siberia for Christmas Day!!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
the snow definitely is not materialising for the monterosa valley
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
milnerhome wrote:
the snow definitely is not materialising for the monterosa valley
milnerhome, are you sure? it looks pretty snowy to me there right now?
The local avalanche warning talks about new snow down to the valley floor, "5-20 cm at 2000m" from yesterday and for today "widespread snowfalls." I'd take that.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
for current wind speeds and weather and forecast for UK, France, Germany, a bit of Austria this is an excellent site for weather dummies like me.
Click on "weather" and animation to see whether it's been snowing etc for the last few hours. Country drop down is top right of page. Looks like snow in Belgium right now.
Here in Schladming we've had fohn weather for a couple of days. Yesterday and today the around +4 at 2000m, feezing in valleys and foggy. A short warm spell not such bad news as will stabilize the snowpack. Forecast to get colder with snow tomorrow and xmas day, then very cold.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Slightly mixed run in to the Christmas period, with rain in the Alps in some places (heavy in parts of Italy). Temperatures fall as we approach Christmas Day bringing snow lower down. Better to be east as the precipitation is more likely to be snow as it will have cooled down by the time it arrives.
This morning sees snow (rain to begin with at lower levels 1800m-2000m, which is a better level than it looked to be a few days ago) starting to work its way into the Alps, hitting the western side first as the system moves through, clearing the French Alps through Christmas Day.
In parts of Italy precipitation levels will be very high. Freezing levels higher too. So that looks like some serious rain to start off with in the Brenta Dolomites, but very heavy snow higher up.
Folgarida and Madonna Di Campiglio
The likely snow fall in Austria has shifted back a day as the system moves through, the potential snowfall has rather increased ( ) and now looking like it will snow through Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and into Boxing Day. Austria has the potential to be very cold on 26 and early 27 December before warming up.
Looking into FI... (and as I've mentioned the models really are switching about at present, a meteorological Three Card Monte... so all very subject to change) Warming up through 27 into 28 very sharply. Possibly up 20C in 24 hours. Could have an impact on the snow pack.
A lot of the models then have a prolonged period of high pressure moving in... but there are still enough (small) suggestions of things possibly breaking up around 29 (more likely 30 or 31 December) to watch for... The trend does seem for high pressure to settle in, with above average temperatures and settled weather... but it is not the only option...
Interestingly there has been an on off suggestion that temperatures could once again start cooling down from around the 02 January... Again it's not strong, but worth keeping an eye on...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
this is for boxing day and onwards from the MWIS...
"All terrain frozen until at least Boxing Day. Mostly fine with light winds on the mountains, but snow showers will
occasionally affect some coastal mountains. A thaw will extend eastwards on and the day after Boxing Day,
accompanied by upland gales and rain (in places preceded by snow). The speed of advance of, and the extend of the
milder air remains very uncertain, with fine conditions holding across most mountain areas on Boxing Day, albeit
increasingly windy (possibly widespread upland gales Scotland).
Overall less cold next week, but with continuing doubt about whether generally southerly winds curve in from the warm
Atlantic or cold Europe"
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen, the precipitation has arrived but the temperatures are now increasing at a worryingly fast rate, according to the monterosa website most of the locations above 2000M are experiencing above freezing temperatures
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
milnerhome, well do keep in mind that the snow level is often about 300m below the freezing level and sometimes (during heavy precipitation) up to 600m below freezing. Much of the best skiing in Monterosa is in any case above 2000m.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen,
Quote:
well do keep in mind that the snow level is often about 300m below the freezing level and sometimes (during heavy precipitation) up to 600m below freezing. Much of the best skiing in Monterosa is in any case above 2000m.
Not only weather genius but also positive thinking psychotherapist!
If it was just me going I wouldn't be worried.. it's just I'm having visions of me being beaten at the side of a very soggy mountain by the whole party
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looking good in the Alps over the next day or two with potential for some reasonable snow falls, heavy in places (including the Arlberg, Tirol and Dolomites, the latter snowier higher up, but likely to see very heavy snow in some areas).
As the temperatures drop over the next few days there could be some really cold temperatures across the Eastern Alps and especially the Vorarlberg and Tirol early on Monday morning...
After that (and what looks like a sharp rise from very cold temperatures on 27 December) the models are looking increasingly inclined to bring in high pressure across the whole of Europe for an extended period. Temperatures look like they would move around (slightly above) seasonal average. Weather would be stable. Precipitation would be minimal. That then is the set up. So the trick will be to spot the shift... (and given the extreme weather we've been having and the difficulty the modeling systems are having with it it could be sudden).
Looking at the pressure forecast it's worth noting that January (like December) looks to have a fair amount of northern blocking - high pressure (in red) sitting to the North of the Atlantic, which could herald a return to colder conditions across the UK as well as Europe for January...
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 24-12-10 10:25; edited 2 times in total
This would tend to suggest the Eastern Alps are likely to be greater beneficiaries of the snow over the next few days. Indeed French resorts look like they may rather miss the party...
On the other hand this looks fairly snowy for first thing tomorrow morning...
Let's hope WRF are more on the ball! (I'd be rather surprised if the French Alps weren't actually quite snowy tomorrow... we'll see)
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
18z WRF deepens snow for French Alps () compared to 12z, with more coming in during the morning and brings a band of snow across the east of the country stretching through to Champagne, Bourgogne and Rhone Alpes on its North-South axis (taking in the A31, A6 and A7? Don't really know my French roads).
Anyway here it is at 1500z which is about as far west as the snow reaches (cross hatching is snow). In fact it does get a little further west, but the snow is rapidly weakening by then...
After all it is free
After all it is free
I can't make out where my interests lie on that chart
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milnerhome, well sort of south east corner of the chart. The bit which gets snowed on all through the night and into tomorrow morning!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
milnerhome, well sort of south east corner of the chart. The bit which gets snowed on all through the night and into tomorrow morning!
ah excellent, shame I'm not there to enjoy it though!
FAQ
brian
s meteorological education board, but don't have nightmares. 
Sorry... (that would have been terribly cold for August...)
Although I did it for the foehn explanation above. 
