I just hope that this snow sticks around until Christmas Day. Keep your updates coming nozawaonsen, i love reading them!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
Monday
First off, the system that works it's way up from the South West, taking in Cornwall and Devon before moving on to Southern Wales and the South Coast. Here it is mid morning just before it breaks up at midday and having travelled all the way up from Land's End. (the UK is in faint outline top left).
Completely selfish I know but what does this / might this mean for Gatwick?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I think it is marginal (as indeed are all the snow events I mentioned, it will all depend on positioning and it could be rain rather than snow especially in the south). I'd see more chance of Monday's low slipping further south (back into the Channel) rather than pressing inland... But... who knows... Keep a close watch would be my advice.
For what it's worth I'm keeping an eye on 29 December in the Alps in FI.
As for UK for next few days worth keeping an eye on the satellite (you can see the weather system heading for northern france tomorrow - which also seems to be sweeping rather close to the South West...)
Snow in the south for tomorrow looked like it would peter out before hitting Gatwick on the 00z, but looks to score a direct hit in the 06z... [edit: but see UKMO below!]
Will be worth watching...
Tuesday looking pretty snowy in SE too...
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 19-12-10 12:42; edited 1 time in total
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, yup, snow falling onto frozen hail from yesterday as I type, in Seaford...
I love these updates - just wish that I could understand them more
Now... I'm meant to drive up to Gatwick tomorrow morning for an airport standby. Due to start at 0500.
And the likelihood is...???
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Michelle, the earlier the better tomorrow for Gatwick. If the models are to be believed you are in a race with the snow heading in from the West. Of course as we've seen the arrival of the snow may not be the trigger for Gatwick (and the airlines) to put contingency plans into action...
Will keep an eye on the Gatwick situation, the latest UKMO models also suggest Heathrow may get hit on Monday too... Monday travel in the south could be tricky...
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
nozawaonsen, lots of very pretty diagrams there with different colours (If only this fool could understand the colours ) Does the deeper the colour mean more precipitation????
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Michelle, there is a scale at the bottom which you can (roughly) convert into snowfall over six hours. So much of the darker green is around 2 to 5 cm of snow over six hours, the more (olive?) colour at the centre of a couple of runs (far south east in the last one) is about 5 to 10 cm. But it is just a guideline.
More later. Must go shopping...
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
oh poo-poo snowing again now in Havant...bug bug bug
In the middle of packing and can't bear the thought that it might all be for nowt. I've been looking at the met office forecast and allowing myself to get excited.
dam and blast
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen, you're doing the most fantastic job on here! It's just brilliant that you take so much time and trouble to do it.
snowlamb,
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Hurtle wrote:
nozawaonsen, you're doing the most fantastic job on here! It's just brilliant that you take so much time and trouble to do it.
snowlamb,
+1
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This shows how tomorrow morning around Gatwick could be quite tricky on the WRF 06z (cross hatching indicates snow).
It's brings the snow across the south a bit earlier, but slightly less widespread than UKMO and it starts to wrap up sooner trending towards rain and sleet later in the morning. So by lunchtime... Which might make things a little easier for those trying to keep things running. But it's a dynamic situation...
Back in the Alps the run up to Christmas continues to shape up. On the 06z the freezing levels on 23/24 December reach less high, reducing (not removing) the risk of rain lower down as the precipitation rolls in. Christmas Day still looking cold, possibly snowy too.
[edit: just unpick that last sentence... Christmas Day looking cold (sunny higher up?), Christmas Eve looking snowy... ]
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sun 19-12-10 19:13; edited 1 time in total
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Perhaps inevitably the situation for Gatwick tomorrow is unclear, but hope dies last and as Disraeli suggested prepare for the worst and hope for the best... or something, here are a few runs which delay or postpone the worst...
So here is NAEFS which blitzes Cardiff and Bristol on Monday evening (and keeps doing so for a while), but only has rain to offer further east... leaving Gatwick largely unscathed...
Here is UKMO for tomorrow evening. Which takes it snowy, slowly across much of the south... (from west to east by tomorrow midnight midnight)...
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen, thanks for all you're really helpful information! All read with great interest and often great befuddlement
I think I'll just get up at 0300 tomorrow and look out of the window before making a decision as to what to do!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
Perhaps inevitably the situation for Gatwick tomorrow is unclear, but hope dies last and as Disraeli suggested prepare for the worst and hope for the best... or something, here are a few runs which delay or postpone the worst...
So here is NAEFS which blitzes Cardiff and Bristol on Monday evening (and keeps doing so for a while), but only has rain to offer further east... leaving Gatwick largely unscathed...
Here is UKMO for tomorrow evening. Which takes it snowy, slowly across much of the south... (from west to east by tomorrow midnight midnight)...
I'm not sure how much more of this I can stand.....I may have to resort to alcohol before the evening is out....We will set off for Gatwick at 0600 tomorrow and hope that we stay ahead of the weather and get airborne on schedule or near about.
I think looking out the window when you wake may well be the best option. As we get in this close all the models can really do is give you options. It's going to be tricky at Gatwick and Heathrow whatever tomorrow...
Incidentally if that UKMO 12z did come off it would hit London just about... evening rush hour... tasty. I'd add though that WRF now also doesn't bring the snow as far as Gatwick and Heathrow or indeed London, leaving it focussed in the South West and as far as Hampshire.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen,
Quote:
So here is NAEFS which blitzes Cardiff and Bristol on Monday evening
I'm right under that one, looks like it could be interesting. 'Standby for incoming'.
Incidentally if that UKMO 12z did come off it would hit London just about... evening rush hour... tasty. I'd add though that WRF now also doesn't bring the snow as far as Gatwick and Heathrow or indeed London, leaving it focussed in the South West and as far as Hampshire.
We are in Hampshire but right on the West Sussex border so we may be lucky.
It's no good we've had to open a bottle of something cold and fizzy ... we are on holiday after all ... and suddenly the world's a better place.
Thanks for all your info. nozawaonsen it has been both exciting and useful and has sent me scurrying to the weather forums.
Will report from Gatwick tomorrow.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:
I may have to resort to alcohol before the evening is out...
snowlamb, you make that sound like an absolute last resort!
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, just to add my thanks for your informative posts....
now a few question....
a) what's your take on how long the cold will hang around in the UK? local radio in Yorkshire was predicting into 2011, but my GFS charts disagree and
b) what chance of Yad Moss getting some snow.....
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
hmm, looks to be an interesting next 24-48hrs then reading above for the south. temps in hants been up and down like a yoyo all day, wonder if it will be another reasonable layer tomorrow here on top of what we have.
got to feel for those caught up at airport and fingers cross for those trying to get away
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
kitenski, on your first question, I think it would be fair to say it is terrifically hard to call. Until this morning UKMO had it running cold till well into mid January. They shifted this morning and now have "a return to nearer normal temperatures" from New Year.
Closer in ECM is pushing for a mild Christmas, GFS keeps it cold up till at least Boxing Day. [edit: I'd add that several models as bar shaker mentioned elsewhere are flagging a pretty windy end to this week!]
So with even 5 days out up for grabs it is hard to get a real sense for where it will go next. There are quite a few suggestions in the models for warmer in a week or so, there are quite a few suggestions the models are failing to really deal with the very cold temperatures.
As for tomorrow the BBC are pushing the snow threat across the South quite hard, it should be a while before it crosses the country to the South East mind, and a number of models are suggesting it will all be a fizzle. We'll see.
Back in the Alps! The pattern remains, with a few tweaks, it looks like snow on 22 December in France and parts of Italy and Switzerland, then picking up with rain at first at lower levels, possibly up to 2000m in parts of France on Thursday 23 December, heavy snow higher up. By Christmas Eve now the temperatures start dropping hard, there might be a little less snow (still a fair amount), but it should be snow all the way down. Then right back into cold for Christmas Day itself (-10C at 1500m) and staying there for Boxing Day.
Pattern similar in Austria, they keep it simpler though. It warms up Wednesday, Thursday, but doesn't mess around with rain, waits till it gets cold and then snows heavily on Christmas Eve, before the Christmas Day and Boxing Day cold.
After that in the Alps, it looks like it warms up quite a bit and maybe one or two surprises round 29 December, but in the current circumstances I would be wary of making much of a prediction.
If your heading to the airports tomorrow hope it all works out! Hope you get to the mountains... higher and higher
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sun 19-12-10 23:44; edited 3 times in total
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen,
First to add to everyones thanks for your wonderful and interesting posts, I am glued to this thread
May i ask your opinion on GFS for Obergurgl region 47 11 I think - off for a week on 2nd Jan, looks predominantly dry, then (maybe) a little snow on 24th/25th, hoping Obergurgl is high enough to ensure that anything that falls is white . After that it does look very dry with temps near 'normal', have I read this right?
I am very thankful that the resort has wonderful cover already, so whatever happens we should have a great week, but shamelessly hoping for a bit of fresh before we go
Any insight you can offer would be greatly appreciated.
Heart in mouth for all of this hoping to get away in the next few days (especially in the south) good luck all.....
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen, if you charged a quid for a weather outlook I'd pay it !
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
+1 a really useful insight - thanks!
brian
brian Guest
Breakdown (or not) of the UK cold around xmas day on a bit of a cliffhanger. GFS op has gone for prolonged cold but most ens allow the atlantic to smash through the block. UKMO cold, ECM sticking with mild. Stay tuned ...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Just to add to the thanks, from the other side of the fence this time - we're currently trapped in La Plagne waiting for Easyjet to sort out their flights back to Gatwick (have a word Michelle!). Very interesting to hear thoughts on the arrival of snow!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
We're all packed and the alarm set for an early start to Gatwick tomorrow and it's only just occurred to me that I've been so preoccupied with snow this side I've completely forgotten to worry about conditions when we get there
One more time good luck to everyone travelling this week. I hoping my next post will be from L2A.
Bonne chance mes amis !
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
May i ask your opinion on GFS for Obergurgl region 47 11 I think - off for a week on 2nd Jan, looks predominantly dry, then (maybe) a little snow on 24th/25th, hoping Obergurgl is high enough to ensure that anything that falls is white . After that it does look very dry with temps near 'normal', have I read this right?
neilkav sounds like you've called it about right [based on the 12z GFS], might be a little bit of a snow shower tomorrow, I'd probably chance my arm that the Christmas Eve snow will be a bit stronger (maybe 20cm+?), certainly the majority if not all of it will be snow in Obergurgl.
After the Christmas cold period... well it is rather tricky to tell, it goes warmer to start, but there are some ghostly suggestions, just suggestions mind, in the mountain mist, of another system pulling through 28/29 December? Once again lifting temperatures as it arrives, then dropping them, but that could easily change...
Tomorrow still right on the edge with whether the south will get a lot of snow... or... not...
GFS 18z is banging the drum for some Christmas Day snow in the UK...
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 20-12-10 8:22; edited 1 time in total
brian
brian Guest
nozawaonsen, to be fair, the banging pretty much confined to the UK's nice bit. Interesting to see where this one sits in the ensemble.
nozawaonsen, to be fair, the banging pretty much confined to the UK's nice bit. Interesting to see where this one sits in the ensemble.
brian
Fair point! Could be a bit more widespread Thursday and Christmas Eve... We'll see...
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
GFS 00z operational looks like it is considering pulling it's punches slightly for the snow in the Alps on 23 December and Christmas Eve. Most of the other ensembles are still pretty gung ho mind. This could still bring rain to lower parts of the French Alps though so needs watching! By the time the show reaches Austria it's a lot less rowdy, but does look less of a rain risk.
And still signs of something (certainly a warm up for a few days!) the other side of a cold Christmas and Boxing Day... More snow??
In the UK snowing very heavily in South West, but will it be able to break out? Some suggestions on forecasts it will fizzle, but radar has it looking strong...
Further out, this morning's GFS switched tracks for the end of the week, kept low pressure further away and instead started building high pressure over UK for Christmas Day. Winds would be less strong at the end of the week if that played out. But it could all change later...
brian, nozawaonsen, local weather forecast from Bourg St Maurice is saying warmer +ve temps and rain later in the week!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Boredsurfing, definitely been looking that way for a while... Freezing could be up to 2200m+... Some rain at lower level looking quite strong for that part of French Alps... Snow on top though! Crucially on Christmas Eve two things happen- temperatures drop steeply and some further heavy snow and rain comes in. Clearly timing and sequencing here are going to be pretty crucial! Rain followed by snow I'd guess, but what proportions? Christmas Day will be cold according to latest models.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
(If only this fool could understand the colours 
but right on the West Sussex border so we may be lucky.
. After that it does look very dry with temps near 'normal', have I read this right?
