 Poster: A snowHead
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That rain is only forecast for the lower elevation of the resort. Higher up it will fall as heavy snow. I would also wait a few days before reading too much in to the forecast for the weekend. The freezing level could easily change to what is being forecast right now
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| jimmybog wrote: |
That rain is only forecast for the lower elevation of the resort. Higher up it will fall as heavy snow. I would also wait a few days before reading too much in to the forecast for the weekend. The freezing level could easily change to what is being forecast right now |
Normally I wouldn't, however it's quite well supported in 06z.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Callum001 wrote: |
| jimmybog wrote: |
That rain is only forecast for the lower elevation of the resort. Higher up it will fall as heavy snow. I would also wait a few days before reading too much in to the forecast for the weekend. The freezing level could easily change to what is being forecast right now |
Normally I wouldn't, however it's quite well supported in 06z. |
Even if it is supported by most members, it can still change (for better or for worse) especially four to five days away. This applies to precipitation amounts and also to temperatures
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| kitenski, three points, firstly the location of that chart is on the Italian side some distance (relatively) from Val d'Isere. Enough to mean it is not going to give you fine detail. Secondly GFS resolution doesn't really do fine detail, you need something finer like WRF (which was showing snow for where you are today, finally and related to those two points I don't know that GFS ensembles are going to tell you much about orthographic lift. So short term I tend to look at the weather part of the avalanche forecasts. |
Thanks for that, is there a better long and lat to use for Val D'Isere?
Do you have a link for WRF at all??
Cheers,
Greg
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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kitenski, I've been checking the GFS for Livigno (46.5ish) for the past couple of years, and I've noticed that you get massive variation between the charts for 46 10 and 47 10, depending on which way the weather is coming from. Looking at both and roughly averaging them is usually quite accurate.
Ps, Noza - hope you heal up asap!
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Finished my road trip to Ski Amade area in Austria today. Was snowing quite heavily from north of Stuttgart all the way down. Luckily just warm enough that the snow was not settling on the autobahns for most the trip. Actually made good time from Munich to Salzburg which can be a nightmare section. Was pulled over by the police, just to check my papers were in order, no other reason given to me the auslander. Shame they could check the papers or the brain related issues with the drivers doing 100mph in heavy spray, falling snow, slush and up each others backsides.
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Germans tend to know how to deal with snow a bit better than Brits 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Timmaah wrote: |
| Germans tend to know how to deal with snow a bit better than Brits |
Still, I was always unnerved by the high rates of speed the Deutsche like to travel at in bad weather/low visibility. Over on this side of the pond they have the same problem. We still manage to have 100 car pile ups at 100kph in bad weather. Had one recently down in Texas with 100 vehicles but only 2 deaths. Nuts!
In any event is that Foehn for the French Alps only? Didn't see anything for Swiss Alps. Still shows very cold in Zermatt for the whole week. Gonna have to pack lots of layers if that's the case for Christmas week. I don't mind cold ski conditions. Much prefer that type of snow to the latter.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Sad story about an Italian killed in an avalanche at the weekend in Saux d'Oulx (Simon Caselli, a 39 year old Ferrari test driver). According to Italian press an 80m wide avalanche caught him. He wasn't wearing a transceiver. His body was found after a four hour search.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Sad story about an Italian killed in an avalanche at the weekend in Saux d'Oulx (Simon Caselli, a 39 year old Ferrari test driver). According to Italian press an 80m wide avalanche caught him. He wasn't wearing a transceiver. His body was found after a four hour search. |
Weak rain crust layer in the snowpack. Had similar issues here in the PNW a few years back. Made for very unstable conditions. Not good, especially when it is in the lower layer of snow.
Looks like other areas of the USA are getting some snow. Unfortunately there are not a lot of ski areas in the Mid-west. But still, a good snow pack in the upper mid-west will help with drought relief come spring and summer. Some areas in Wisconsina nd Minnestota got almost 18 inches. So, they have that going for them. That, and maybe a white Christmas.
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We've had another 12-15" of snow overnight. Still snowing. Local forecast is for colder temperatures for the next few days and then 0-6/7 at the weekend before cooling off again.
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You know it makes sense.
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Friday night into Saturday looking pretty stormy in the western Alps. Snow line possibly rising to 1800m at times before dropping.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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rain below 1800m affects quite a lot of the resorts, hopefully not too much damage will be caused to the snow pack below that level
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Poster: A snowHead
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| downhillalltheway wrote: |
| We've had another 12-15" of snow overnight. Still snowing. Local forecast is for colder temperatures for the next few days and then 0-6/7 at the weekend before cooling off again. |
Just out of curiosity, where is your location?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Nyahahahaha this morning was EPIC!!
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| clarky999 wrote: |
| Nyahahahaha this morning was EPIC!! |
It's tomorrow morning that we're concerned with on this thread
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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kitenski,
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Thanks for that, is there a better long and lat to use for Val D'Isere?
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I use wikipedia:
Coordinates: 45°27′02″N 6°58′41″E
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Based on the current output after some rain freezing temperatures would quickly drop followed by heavy snow in French Alps. Stormy winds could be an issue at the weekend.
clarky999, can't believe it was more fun than traipsing round hospitals!
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nozawaonsen, any idea of timings? Driving Meribel to Les Arcs on Saturday and wondering if an early start would be useful?
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rob@rar, should become clearer over next few days.
Friday night Saturday morning looks quite grotty at the moment, possibly rain/snow, passing through and temperatures dropping later in the day. But plenty of time for that to change.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, ta!
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| Quote: |
nozawaonsen, any idea of timings?
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When you back on your skis??
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| bruisedskier wrote: |
kitenski,
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Thanks for that, is there a better long and lat to use for Val D'Isere?
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I use wikipedia:
Coordinates: 45°27′02″N 6°58′41″E |
So 45 and 7 or 45 and 6 is the best we can get from the GFS then!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I like the snow flakes at the bottom. 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
The forecast for the French Alps next week lurches from famine to feast with GFS run
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indeed. Which suggests that we might as well stop bothering about it till it settles down a bit. As if....
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Poster: A snowHead
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| pam w wrote: |
| ... we might as well stop bothering about it till it settles down a bit. |
Wash your mouth out with soap young lady
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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kitenski, it's not actually GFS, it's just the website you're using to show the ensembles.
wetterzentrale.de doesn't break it down as much as meteociel.fr as bruisedskier points out.
I rather prefer the wetter graphic, but in some ways meteociel is more useful, it also allows you to compare the last four runs (and indeed overlay them).
red 27, not too sure that's the case, the signal for stormy weather and snow this weekend looks pretty consistent from run to run, at least to me. Saturday may see quite a high freezing temperature as it comes in, but cooling and snowy there after.
Jet profile for Saturday. Full on assault from the west.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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jimmybog, He is based in Lengries or was last season. It is about 30km west from me as the crow flies. We have had about 30cms over the past 24 hours and it still has not stopped snowing. I've seen cars driving around today with snow chains on here for the first time since 2005/2006. The forecast is for it to continue for the next 48 hours with more just over the border in Tirol and Salzburgerland.
Timmaah, According to the reports I'm hearing and reading, the roads here in Oberbayern are not as clear as you would expect. The motorway is sort of clear, but we keep getting so-called Blitzeis particularly on the inclines catching the HGVs out. The Irschenberg was partially blocked earlier today with lorries not making the grade. My German friends are all moaning like hell about the lack of/poor road clearing. They have no idea!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Samerberg Sue, it's the cheering thought of geisterfahrers in the snow that always concerns me!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, Scares the shit out of me too. I had one the other week on the A8, but luckily in good weather!
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nozza, T'was next week Mon-Thurs I was looking at, rather than the W/end which I agree looks nailed on.
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| jimmybog wrote: |
| downhillalltheway wrote: |
| We've had another 12-15" of snow overnight. Still snowing. Local forecast is for colder temperatures for the next few days and then 0-6/7 at the weekend before cooling off again. |
Just out of curiosity, where is your location? |
As Samerberg Sue says I live in Lenggries. The snow has continued all night last night, all day today and its still snowing. The roads are really bad. The road through to Austria via Achenkirch and on to Jenbach and the Tirol is closed. One of the locals here told me this evening that it is due to an avalanche. The roads locally are passable but only with extreme care. I've been in to Munich today and my train was even 7 minutes late on the way back so things must be bad. I'd say that the whole of the UK would be totally paralysed for days such is the intensity and depth of the snow.
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Couple of points from this evening's SLF.
Considerable avalanche danger will be encountered over a wide area. Snow drifts require caution
"Fresh snow
From Sunday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon the following amounts of snowfall were registered:
- northern flank of the Alps from eastern part of the Bernese Oberland to Liechtenstein, as well as the Prättigau, 50 to 80 cm; from Muotatal into the Glarner Alps, about 100 cm
- remaining northern flank of the Alps, northern Valais, Goms, remaining regions of northern Grisons, as well as central Grisons, 30 to 50 cm
- further to the south, significantly less"
"Friday
In western regions in particular, snowfall is expected. Amidst strong velocity westerly winds and ascending snowfall levels, the danger of dry and wet avalanches will increase."
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Meteo Chance are forecasting snow to over 2000m on Friday. Hope that's a tad pessimistic....
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pam w, From the current and recent outout I could imagine the freezing level briefly reaching 2000m as the storm comes in, but the snow line would be closer to 1700m+. It goes on to fall after that so you'd end up with snow to rain (overnight) to snow amongst some stormy winds. But these things can shift about all the way till it actually happens.
Snow on and off next week before 20/21 December (the weekend after) which also looks quite stormy with heavy snow following initial rain, but that's a long way off.
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