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A snowHead

Here in bournemouth it is raining but we live in hope!

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

temp at 3pm was 1c and you could really feel it aswell, wind picked up a little now.

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Well we got a gradually building wind through the day as the pressure dropped. It spiked at almost gale force and veered sharply as the front went through, bringing a short but very powerful storm of rain (noticed all this because I was out on the bike at the time...). then it was rapidly almost calm and gently drizzling. Not v cold (except for soaking wet cyclists. rolling eyes

) Looking back at the afternoon's events on chimet there was a rapid pressure drop during the day - I'm a bit surprised the wind was so short-lived. No doubt it's coming back. But am now home and dry and contemplating some roasted chestnuts and mulled wine.

It's clearly very hard to forecast - we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?

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clear skies now here in Manchester so the weather is all south of us now. Cold night with frost and possible heavy snow on Saturday.

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pam w, you at home or out in France?

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I'm at home in the moment, on Chichester Harbour. Driving out 22/23rd, pick ups in Gva on 23rd and 24th.

It's like reading sky news on here. the end of the world is descending from the north. The met office are always giving severe weather warnings to cover their backsides on the off occasion there is some severe weather. I was in Canada when the temps went from -30 to +10 overnight, now that's a change in temps - the wrong way!

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The last few runs have certainly not made it any clearer what this weekends UK weather into early next week will look like...

It is though looking slightly less convincing that there will be quite the widespread heavy snow that was being forecast earlier this morning and yesterday. That doesn't mean it won't be snowy, heavy in places, blizzards, it looks like it will (indeed it is snowing now in some places), but at the same time there could well be a fair amount of heavy rain and sleet passing through different areas...

But the speed with which each run is grasping at different options gives little confidence that any one run is more likely than the last (it's that ball dancing round the roulette wheel again). One cooler, the next milder, the low goes north, the low goes south... The key points are that there is quite a bit of cold around, quite a bit of moisture around and somewhere they are going to mix...

Obviously, the closer we get the more likely it will be that we might get a clearer picture, but it's going to go down to the wire.

Travel disruption is clearly going to be possible over the weekend and into Monday and Tuesday not just from snow, but ice too is likely to make things tricky. This morning's forecast looked more likely to me to shut down airports like Gatwick and Heathrow over the weekend, possibly things are looking slightly better this evening, but it's all going to come down to how the cards fall on the day and may well look very different in the morning...

It's going to be interesting to see the set up tomorrow first thing as we get into the last 24 hours...

Good snowfall driving into the Alps tomorrow. Should be nice on Saturday when the sun will be out. Looking into next week there does seem to be an increasing suggestion that the colder period we have been in for much of December and the end of November could be about to shift (though that is not to say there are not some col options out there). So temperatures will be closer and more likely a little over average through Christmas. The trick is going to be where the freezing level sits... Because it does look like it is going to be snowy through Christmas... wink

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Well, its been an interesting day, although the forecasts indicate that the future here may get more interesting...

Apart from a few flurries there has been nothing so far, but the TV shows that just up the road in Aberdeen its been chaos!!

It's currently -4C in Angus (on the tree outside the patio) which compared to a couple of weeks ago is balmy, -12C for several nights was the norm. The current radar shows this:

so again it seems we're in the "sweet spot"

There was a discussion, I'm not sure whether here or elsewhere about how much we in "central" Scotland were so much looking forward to more snow.... Well, it's now been 3 weeks since we saw much of the edges of roads, even in the centre of town, where there used to be junctions with 3 lanes _still_ only one lane is passable (a 4 foot wall of snow counts as not passable, I'm not talking about a wee ridge). Yesterday I picked up a chinese from our favourite place and _in the middle of town_ had to drive over solid rutted snow, three weeks old. I went to Tesco and had to peer round the 10 foot high snow mounds in the car park while finding a place. It's all getting a bit surreal. No, snow lover as I am, this is all getting quite hard work.

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andyrew, ooooooh animated images... me likey! snowHead

You know it makes sense.

andyrew, whare abouts in Scotland are you?

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

Weather seems to be swinging in a complete U turn. The likelihood of snow across the UK tomorrow and for the rest of this weekend looking significantly less likely, indeed at this stage not likely in many areas, across almost all the models! The far south east (Kent coast) and north of Scotland looking like they may still receive some. Everywhere else sees snow forecasts downgraded or cancelled... This does not mean that the snowfall could not suddenly be reintroduced as we go on, a sudden shift in the other direction, but obviously as we get closer to the weekend it becomes less likely. Northern France and the Belgian massif looks like it will get the snow instead...

Barton Bank. Kempton. King George VI Chase Boxing Day 1994... 12 lengths clear he was...

Into the Alps and momentum is building behind a lengthy milder period with freezing levels reaching up towards 2000m+ and beyond from about 21-23 December...

At the same time there does seem to be a fairly snowy period stretching from around 23 December, not huge falls by the look of it at this stage, but persistent (probably higher accumulations in the west than the east), with snowfall at around 1500m according to the mean in France and 1500 to 1700m in Austria. The control and operational runs are pushing for slightly milder options (2000m+ in places as mentioned above).

Some lovely snow into the Alps this morning...

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, thanks for all that. Looking good for all the travel plans around and leaving the UK this weekend. snowHead

Gva airport reported closed (snow) on another thread but it will probably re-open soon. Chamonix meteo have introduced the F-word for later in the week.......

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

yep just read that too. so is it trending milder but fundamentally without the potential for rain, cham meteo said 'shower' but never really tell until closer to the time whether thats wet or white snowHead

Looks like a good covering overnight, at least mid-wheel on a van i could see on a webcam Twisted Evil

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I'm sorry you feel that way. My previous post was attempting to capture the significant shift that appeared in this morning's 00z models (which was first apparent in GFS 06z yesterday). For several days before there had been a strong indication that this Saturday would see pretty much countrywide snow and heavy disruption to transport. The current models no longer support that.

Obviously, it has been snowing heavily in many parts of the country throughout the month and there is existing lying snow which has caused significant ongoing disruption. It sounds like where you live has quite a bit of disruption.

My post was simply illustrating that the forecast had changed substantially for Saturday and as it stood would see further snow confined to a smaller part of the country including parts of the southern coast and northern Scotland.

Clearly you are going to be far more able to tell the weather from your window than I will.

Enjoy the weather. wink

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nozawaonsen, if I look at the 00z for Leeds, there is still a 'bump' around the 19th, which I take as precipation???

http://www.gregh.co.uk/php/gfsruns.php?select=Leeds

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Two thoughts I'd take, first as I mentioned yesterday:

"... the speed with which each run is grasping at different options gives little confidence that any one run is more likely than the last (it's that ball dancing round the roulette wheel again). One cooler, the next milder, the low goes north, the low goes south... The key points are that there is quite a bit of cold around, quite a bit of moisture around and somewhere they are going to mix... " [and probably suddenly without much notice]

Second the models are clearly struggling with what is going on and in any case are less reliable this close in.

As I said a few days ago it was looking increasingly likely Saturday would be a countrywide event, today the picture is looking a lot more fractured. I think in the last half hour I have seen models or forecasts which predict snow for the north, east, south and west of the country for tomorrow, but little agreement between them...

Back to the Alps 06z throws an interesing FI option (for the control and operational) with temperatures diving back into the deep cold on Boxing Day...

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skinutter, there is 40 cms of fresh snow at Les Saisies. I imagine areas such as the Aravis will also have had nice falls!

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There's an interesting diagram on the bottom of the "montagne" forecast on Meteo France showing the depth of snow on north and south facing slopes on various mountain ranges at various altitudes. Nice to see that, as usual, the Beaufortain has more at 2000m than the Haute Tarentaise at 2500m. Size isn't everything. wink

Italy isn't looking a snow heaven for the new year Confused

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

It's all gone hand to hand in the UK and I think it is very much into a nowcasting situation. We have definitely got the cold. Options are open and the joker is wild (and I promise not to get all stroppy again). Good luck to those that are travelling.

The Boxing Day option in the Alps is rather tempting. Just the operational tonight... Though it cropped up a few times earlier in the week. Just a tease? Puzzled

A snowHead

Teeming it down in Warrington as we arrived but first leg of the journey done - just need to get out tommorrow and up the road to Scotland!

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Not been outside but there is probably 4"'here in Manchester. Spoke to some people on east Manchester near to the pennines and they are saying more like 8" up there!!!

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Ricklovesthepowder, hope you can find a hill to enjoy it on! Very Happy

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nozawaonsen, I have one almighty hangover. Back tomsleep for a little bit then I'm off out somewhere. I will try and get some pics!

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Starting to shape up for Christmas in the Alps.

Temperatures look like they will rise quite significantly and quickly from the current deep cold by the end of this weekend (possibly rising by 15C). So by the start of the week it looks like it will be much closer to seasonal average (0C at 1500m).

Potentially a fair bit of snow heading into the Alps arriving on 22 to 23 December. As it comes through the temperatures will rise a little further. And this is going to be worth watching as it could mean the snow arrives as rain up to 1800m+.

Peering a little further ahead into more unpredictable territory, snow looks like it could last through Christmas Eve with temperatures dropping rapidly as the snow pulls through, possibly leaving a cold and sunny Christmas Day?

Temperatures rise and perhaps some more snow coming through after Boxing Day? wink

Les Deux Alpes, Alpes d'Huez, La Grave

Arlberg

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nozawaonsen, thanks for that. The rise back to the seasonal average will please the OH as she struggles to get warm when it's extremely cold. I'm a much worse skier so have to work hard for what I manage and keep nice and toasty! Lets hope the rain lower down doesn't cause too much damage (although it should be great higher up Very Happy

)

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Those who may be driving down through France Sunday or Monday may want to keep an eye on a band of snow that looks like it will work across northern France tomorrow.

And a slightly less persistent looking one on Monday morning.

GFS 12z tightens the outlook for the Alps over the Christmas period (as the 06z did before).

Temperatures heading up to seasonal averages by Monday, then up again by Tuesday into Wednesday, freezing level at 2000m+, possibly more like 2300m+ in some places in the west (not quite so ideal...)

At the same time from Tuesday precipitation starts coming in from the west, it looks like being rain at lower levels for a couple of days, though it should bring quite a bit of snow higher up. One of those slightly tricky scenarios...

By Christmas Eve though the temperatures get set to drop and this would bring snow right down to lower levels before it clears for Christmas Day with temperatures back down to -8C or lower at 1500m.

In the east the precipitation level looks lower, but at the same time it doesn't really reach Austria until the Christmas Eve cool down so the pay off is that it is less likely to fall as rain.

Then off into further FI temperatures start building beyond Boxing Day.

So going to have to keep an eye on the temperatures in the run up... But certainly (for now) looks like a snowy run into Christmas at altitude.
wink

[UK snow thoughts... it ain't over yet... to follow]

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This evenings 12z GFS ensembles for the UK suggest we are going to hold onto the cold until at least Christmas Day.

Although there is nothing quite as significant as today on the horizon (yet), there are a number of indications of snow potential in various parts of the country in the first half of next week.

Monday

First off, the system that works it's way up from the South West, taking in Cornwall and Devon before moving on to Southern Wales and the South Coast. Here it is mid morning just before it breaks up at midday and having travelled all the way up from Land's End. (the UK is in faint outline top left).

Tuesday

Sees a low pressure moving in with potential for snow for north east Scotland, Wales into the Midlands and Cheshire and the southern half of England including London.

Wednesday

This evening's ECM also suggests could provide snowy offerings in the east of the country.

Thursday

ECM again makes it snowy!

Of course the models will all change as we go through the week and much could (will) change. But whilst we hold onto the cold, the potential for snow is still right there...

wink

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